Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

A multicentennial mode of North Atlantic climate variability throughout the Last Glacial Maximum

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multicentennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Exploiting LGM simulations with a comprehensive coupled climate model along with high-resolution proxy records, we introduce an oscillatory mode of multicentennial variability, which is associated with moderate variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and depends on the large-scale salinity distribution. This self-sustained mode is amplified by sea-ice feedbacks and induces maximum surface temperature variability in the subpolar North Atlantic region. Characterized by a distinct climatic imprint and different dynamics, the multicentennial oscillation has to be distinguished from Dansgaard-Oeschger variability and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. The potential of multicentennial modes of variability to emerge or disappear in response to changing climate forcing may have implications for future climate change.

Ocean temperature drove changes in the mesopelagic fish community at the edge of the Pacific Warm Pool over the past 460,000 years

Field observations and theoretical modeling suggest that ongoing anthropogenic ocean warming will lead to marine ecosystem degradation. Mesopelagic fish are a fundamental component of the pelagic ecosystem, and their role in linking the surface- and deep-ocean ecosystems is essential for the biological carbon pump. However, their response to a warmer ocean is unconstrained because of data scarcity. Using extraordinarily well-preserved fish otoliths, we reconstruct a continuous mesopelagic fish community record in the Pacific Warm Pool region over 460,000 years. Fish production and diversity followed hump-shaped temperature gradients, with lower tipping point temperatures for the diversity than the production by ~1.5° to 2.0°C. During warmer-than-present interglacial periods, both production and diversity declined drastically. Our findings imply that the temperature-sensitive mesopelagic fish community at the southwestern margin of the Pacific Warm Pool, and possibly other hydrographically similar regions, may be especially affected if ocean warming continues unabated in the future.

Being a Dog: A Review of the Domestication Process

The process of canine domestication represents certainly one of the most interesting questions that evolutionary biology aims to address. A "multiphase" view of this process is now accepted, with a first phase during which different groups of wolves were attracted by the anthropogenic niche and a second phase characterized by the gradual establishment of mutual relationships between wolves and humans. Here, we provide a review of dog (Canis familiaris) domestication, highlighting the ecological differences between dogs and wolves, analyzing the molecular mechanisms which seem to have influenced the affiliative behaviors first observed in Belyaev's foxes, and describing the genetics of ancient European dogs. Then, we focus on three Mediterranean peninsulas (Balkan, Iberian and Italian), which together represent the main geographic area for studying canine domestication dynamics, as it has shaped the current genetic variability of dog populations, and where a well-defined European genetic structure was pinpointed through the analysis of uniparental genetic markers and their phylogeny.

Millennial-scale climate variability over land overprinted by ocean temperature fluctuations

Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.

Probing the timescale dependency of local and global variations in surface air temperature from climate simulations and reconstructions of the last millennia

Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the Holocene (11 700 yr ago to today), has been characterized by small variations in global mean temperature prior to anthropogenic warming. However, the mechanisms and spatiotemporal patterns of fluctuations around this mean, called temperature variability, are poorly understood despite their socioeconomic relevance for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we examine discrepancies between temperature variability from model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions by categorizing the scaling behavior of local and global surface air temperature on the timescale of years to centuries. To this end, we contrast power spectral densities (PSD) and their power-law scaling using simulated and observation-based temperature series of the last 6000 yr. We further introduce the spectral gain to disentangle the externally forced and internally generated variability as a function of timescale. It is based on our estimate of the joint PSD of radiative forcing, which exhibits a scale break around the period of 7 yr. We find that local temperature series from paleoclimate reconstructions show a different scaling behavior than simulated ones, with a tendency towards stronger persistence (i.e., correlation between successive values within a time series) on periods of 10 to 200 yr. Conversely, the PSD and spectral gain of global mean temperature are consistent across data sets. Our results point to the limitation of climate models to fully represent local temperature statistics over decades to centuries. By highlighting the key characteristics of temperature variability, we pave a way to better constrain possible changes in temperature variability with global warming and assess future climate risks.

Warming Rates Alter Sequence of Disassembly in Experimental Communities

AbstractThe frequency, intensity, and duration of periods of extreme environmental warming are expected to rise over the next hundred years and play an increasing role in species loss resulting from climate change, and yet we know little about their potential future effects on variability in the composition of communities. This study analyzed patterns of species loss in a community of four rotifers and six ciliates exposed to different rates of extreme warming. Temperature of loss was positively correlated with warming rates for all species, consistent with theoretical frameworks suggesting that lower rates of warming increase exposure time and cumulative thermal stress at each temperature. The sequence of species loss during extreme warming depended on the environmental warming rate (i.e., warming rates had the capacity to drive reversals in the relative thermal tolerances of species), and changes in the sequence of species loss driven by the warming rate resulted in substantial variability in community composition. The results suggest that differences in warming rates across space and time may increase variability in community composition in ecosystems increasingly disturbed by extreme temperature, potentially altering interspecific interactions, the abiotic environment, and ecosystem function. Several ecological mechanisms may be responsible, singly or together, for changes in the sequence of species loss at different rates of warming, including (a) differences among species in their sensitivity to the intensity and duration of heat exposure, (b) the effects of warming rates on temperature-dependent interspecific interactions, and (c) differences in opportunities for evolution among species and across warming rates.

The East Asian Winter Monsoon Acts as a Major Selective Factor in the Intraspecific Differentiation of Drought-Tolerant Nitraria tangutorum in Northwest China

The influence of Quaternary climate fluctuation on the geographical structure and genetic diversity of species distributed in the regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) has been well established. However, the underlying role of the East Asian monsoon system (EAMS) in shaping the genetic structure of the population and the demography of plants located in the arid northwest of China has not been explored. In the present study, Nitraria tangutorum, a drought-tolerant desert shrub that is distributed in the EAMS zone and has substantial ecological and economic value, was profiled to better understand the influence of EAMS evolution on its biogeographical patterns and demographic history. Thus, the phylogeographical structure and historical dynamics of this plant species were elucidated using its five chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) fragments. Hierarchical structure analysis revealed three distinct, divergent lineages: West, East-A, and East-B. The molecular dating was carried out using a Bayesian approach to estimate the time of intraspecies divergence. Notably, the eastern region, which included East-A and East-B lineages, was revealed to be the original center of distribution and was characterized by a high level of genetic diversity, with the intraspecific divergence time dated to be around 2.53 million years ago (Ma). These findings, combined with the data obtained by ecological niche modeling analysis, indicated that the East lineages have undergone population expansion and differentiation, which were closely correlated with the development of the EAMS, especially the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The West lineage appears to have originated from the migration of N. tangutorum across the Hexi corridor at around 1.85 Ma, and subsequent colonization of the western region. These results suggest that the EAWM accelerated the population expansion of N. tangutorum and subsequent intraspecific differentiation. These findings collectively provide new information on the impact of the evolution of the EAMS on intraspecific diversification and population demography of drought-tolerant plant species in northwest China.

A chronology of landsliding based on archaeological and documentary data: Pavlovské vrchy Hills, Western Carpathian Flysch Belt

Pavlovské vrchy Hills represent a distinctive elevation near the Czech-Austrian border where the active, dormant and relict landslides cover 12% of the area. Here we focused on the chronology of landsliding in this area using geological, archaeological and historical evidence. The earliest records of landsliding were determined in locations underlying the dated archaeological settlements. The Upper Paleolithic settlement complex dated between 37-24 ka cal BP, was originally deposited over these landslides. It was consequently destroyed in certain places by additional landslides preceding the last (Upper Pleniglacial) loess deposition (22 ka cal BP). These landslides took place before and after the Upper Paleolithic occupation of this area. This Pleistocene landslide event ranks among the oldest (albeit indirectly) dated landslide within the Czech part of the Western Carpathian Flysch Belt. The chronology of later, historical, landsliding was determined using written records (chronicles, official reports, archival evidence, etc.). Continuous records of landsliding were available as of the middle of the seventeenth century. The major concentration of landslides occurred at the beginning of the twentieth century (1910-1915). The 1663 landslide is currently the oldest landslide, in the Czech part of the Western Carpathian Flysch Belt, which was dated on the basis of documentary data.

Resonant Forcing of the Climate System in Subharmonic Modes

During recent decades observation of climate archives has raised several questions. Concerning the mid-Pleistocene transition problem, conflicting sets of hypotheses highlight either the role of ice sheets or atmospheric carbon dioxide in causing the increase in duration and severity of ice age cycles. The role of the solar irradiance modulations in climate variability is frequently referenced but the underlying physical justifications remain most mysterious. Here, we extend the key mechanisms involving the oceanic Rossby waves in climate variability, to very long-period, multi-frequency Rossby waves winding around the subtropical gyres. Our study demonstrates that the climate system responds resonantly to solar and orbital forcing in eleven subharmonic modes. We advocate new hypotheses on the evolution of the past climate, implicating the deviation between forcing periods and natural periods according to the subharmonic modes, and the polar ice caps while challenging the role of the thermohaline circulation.

Unlocking the origins and biology of domestic animals using ancient DNA and paleogenomics

Animal domestication has fascinated biologists since Charles Darwin first drew the parallel between evolution via natural selection and human-mediated breeding of livestock and companion animals. In this review we show how studies of ancient DNA from domestic animals and their wild progenitors and congeners have shed new light on the genetic origins of domesticates, and on the process of domestication itself. High-resolution paleogenomic data sets now provide unprecedented opportunities to explore the development of animal agriculture across the world. In addition, functional population genomics studies of domestic and wild animals can deliver comparative information useful for understanding recent human evolution.

Postglacial change of the floristic diversity gradient in Europe

Climate warming is expected to cause a poleward spread of species, resulting in increased richness at mid to high latitudes and weakening the latitudinal diversity gradient. We used pollen data to test if such a change in the latitudinal diversity gradient occurred during the last major poleward shift of plant species in Europe following the end of the last glacial period. In contrast to expectations, the slope of the gradient strengthened during the Holocene. The increase in temperatures around 10 ka ago reduced diversity at mid to high latitude sites due to the gradual closure of forests. Deforestation and the introduction of agriculture during the last 5 ky had a greater impact on richness in central Europe than the earlier climate warming. These results do not support the current view that global warming alone will lead to a loss in biodiversity, and demonstrate that non-climatic human impacts on the latitudinal diversity gradient is of a greater magnitude than climate change.

Climate-induced poleward shifts in plant distributions could flatten latitudinal diversity gradients. However, here the authors show that the spread of forests after the last ice age reduced diversity in central and northern Europe, and that human land-use over the past 5000 years strengthened the latitudinal gradient in plant diversity.

A simulated Northern Hemisphere terrestrial climate dataset for the past 60,000 years

We present a continuous land-based climate reconstruction dataset extending back 60 kyr from 0 BP (1950) at 0.5° resolution on a monthly timestep for 0°N to 90°N. It has been generated from 42 discrete snapshot simulations using the HadCM3B-M2.1 coupled general circulation model. We incorporate Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) and Heinrich events to represent millennial scale variability, based on a temperature reconstruction from Greenland ice-cores, with a spatial fingerprint based on a freshwater hosing simulation with HadCM3B-M2.1. Interannual variability is also added and derived from the initial snapshot simulations. Model output has been downscaled to 0.5° resolution (using simple bilinear interpolation) and bias corrected. Here we present surface air temperature, precipitation, incoming shortwave energy, minimum monthly temperature, snow depth, wind chill and number of rainy days per month. This is one of the first open access climate datasets of this kind and can be used to study the impact of millennial to orbital-scale climate change on terrestrial greenhouse gas cycling, northern extra-tropical vegetation, and megaflora and megafauna population dynamics.

Consistent multi-decadal variability in global temperature reconstructions and simulations over the Common Era

Multi-decadal surface temperature changes may be forced by natural as well as anthropogenic factors, or arise unforced from the climate system. Distinguishing these factors is essential for estimating sensitivity to multiple climatic forcings and the amplitude of the unforced variability. Here we present 2,000-year-long global mean temperature reconstructions using seven different statistical methods that draw from a global collection of temperature-sensitive paleoclimate records. Our reconstructions display synchronous multi-decadal temperature fluctuations, which are coherent with one another and with fully forced CMIP5 millennial model simulations across the Common Era. The most significant attribution of pre-industrial (1300-1800 CE) variability at multi-decadal timescales is to volcanic aerosol forcing. Reconstructions and simulations qualitatively agree on the amplitude of the unforced global mean multi-decadal temperature variability, thereby increasing confidence in future projections of climate change on these timescales. The largest warming trends at timescales of 20 years and longer occur during the second half of the 20^th century, highlighting the unusual character of the warming in recent decades.

SISAL: Bringing Added Value to Speleothem Research

Isotopic records from speleothems are an important source of information about past climates and, given the increase in the number of isotope-enabled climate models, are likely to become an important tool for climate model evaluation. SISAL (Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis) have created a global database of isotopic records from speleothems in order to facilitate regional analyses and data-model comparison. The papers in this Special Issue showcase the use of the database for regional analyses. In this paper, we discuss some of the important issues underpinning the use of speleothems and how the existence of this database assists palaeoclimate research. We also highlight some of the lessons learned in the creation of the SISAL database and outline potential research going forward.

Speleothem Paleoclimatology for the Caribbean, Central America, and North America

Speleothem oxygen isotope records from the Caribbean, Central, and North America reveal climatic controls that include orbital variation, deglacial forcing related to ocean circulation and ice sheet retreat, and the influence of local and remote sea surface temperature variations. Here, we review these records and the global climate teleconnections they suggest following the recent publication of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database. We find that low-latitude records generally reflect changes in precipitation, whereas higher latitude records are sensitive to temperature and moisture source variability. Tropical records suggest precipitation variability is forced by orbital precession and North Atlantic Ocean circulation driven changes in atmospheric convection on long timescales, and tropical sea surface temperature variations on short timescales. On millennial timescales, precipitation seasonality in southwestern North America is related to North Atlantic climate variability. Great Basin speleothem records are closely linked with changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Although speleothems have revealed these critical global climate teleconnections, the paucity of continuous records precludes our ability to investigate climate drivers from the whole of Central and North America for the Pleistocene through modern. This underscores the need to improve spatial and temporal coverage of speleothem records across this climatically variable region.