Impact of pretreatment factors, biopsy Gleason grade volume indices and post-treatment nadir PSA on overall survival in patients with metastatic prostate cancer treated with step-up hormonal therapy

Low serum total testosterone level as a predictor of upgrading in low-risk prostate cancer patients after radical prostatectomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

To investigated the association between serum total testosterone and Gleason score upgrading of low-risk prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (RP).

Materials and Methods

Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases were searched to identify eligible studies published before October 2021. Multivariate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random or fixed effects models.

Results

Five studies comprising 1,203 low-risk prostate cancer patients were included. The results showed that low serum total testosterone (<300 ng/dL) is associated with a high rate of Gleason score upgrading after RP (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.38–3.83; p<0.001; I², 92.2%). Notably, sensitivity and meta-regression analyses further strengthen the reliability of our results.

Conclusions

Our results support the idea that low serum total testosterone is associated with a high rate of Gleason score upgrading in prostate cancer patients after RP. It is beneficial for urologist to ensure close monitoring of prostate-specific antigen levels and imaging examination when choosing non-RP treatment for low-risk prostate cancer patients.

Impact of Gleason pattern 5 on prognosis for newly diagnosed metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with Gleason score ≥8

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the impact of Gleason pattern 5 presence on prognosis among de novo metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer patients with a Gleason score ≥8.

METHODS

The data of 559 patients diagnosed as metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with a Gleason score ≥8, who were initially treated with androgen deprivation therapy from 2008 to 2016, were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into two groups as high and low volume based on the CHAARTED trial criteria.

RESULTS

The median overall survival of the 559 metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer patients with Gleason score ≥8 was 70 months, with a median follow-up period of 36 months. Gleason pattern 5 was confirmed in 341 patients (61.0%), in which primary Gleason pattern 5 was confirmed in 164 patients (29.3%). The number of patients with high metastatic volume group was 363 (64.9%). In total and high metastatic volume groups, hemoglobin and lactate dehydrogenase were significant factors for predicting overall survival, but both Gleason pattern 5 and primary Gleason pattern 5 did not show a statistically significant difference. In the low-volume metastatic group, the median overall survival in patients with or without primary Gleason pattern 5 was 40 and 78 months, respectively. In multivariate analysis, only primary Gleason pattern 5 was an independent predictive factor for overall survival in the low-volume metastatic group (hazard ratio 2.76, 95% confidence interval 1.88-8.67; P = 0.0026).

CONCLUSION

The presence of Gleason pattern 5 was not associated with overall survival in metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with a Gleason score ≥8. In low-metastatic volume metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer, primary Gleason pattern 5 was a poor prognostic factor, which might show a separate treatment option for this group.

Prostate cancer with low burden skeletal disease at diagnosis: outcome of concomitant radiotherapy on primary tumor and metastases

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate toxicity and clinical outcome in synchronous bone only oligometastatic (≤2 lesions) prostate cancer patients, simultaneously irradiated to prostate/prostatic bed, lymph nodes and bone metastases.

METHODS

From 2/2009 to 6/2015, 39 bone only prostate cancer patients underwent radiotherapy (RT) at "radical" doses to bone metastases (median 2 Gy equivalent dose, EQD2>40Gy, α/β = 1,5), nodes, and prostate/prostatic bed, within the same RT course, in association with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT).Biochemical relapse-free survival, clinical relapse-free survival, freedom from distant metastases and overall survival were evaluated.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 46.5 (1.2-103.6) months, 5 patients died from disease progression, 10 experienced biochemical relapse, 19, still in ADT, presented undetectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at the last follow-up. Five patients who discontinued ADT after a median of 34 months (5.8-41) are free from biochemical relapse.The 4 year Kaplan-Meier estimates of biochemical relapse-free survival, clinical relapse-free survival, freedom from distant metastases and overall survival were 53.3%, 65.7%, 73.4% and 82.4% respectively.No Grade > 2 acute events and only two severe late urinary events were recorded, not due to the concomitant treatment of primary and metastatic disease.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that "radical" and synchronous irradiation of primitive tumor and metastatic disease may be a valid approach in synchronous bone only prostate cancer patients, showing mild toxicity profile and promising survival results.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first analysis of clinical outcome in synchronous bone-only metastasis (neither nodal nor visceral) patients at diagnosis, treated with radical RT to all disease, associated to ADT.

Prognostic value of alkaline phosphatase in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

To assess the prognostic value of alkaline phosphatase in patients with hormone-sensitive prostate cancer.

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using the PUBMED, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and Scopus in April 2019 according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis statement. Studies were deemed eligible if they compared hormone-sensitive prostate cancer patients with high vs. low alkaline phosphatase to determine its predictive value for overall survival, cancer-specific survival, and progression-free survival. We performed a formal meta-analysis of these outcomes.

Results

42 articles with 7938 patients were included in the systematic review and 28 studies with 5849 patients for the qualitative assessment. High alkaline phosphatase was associated with worse overall survival (pooled HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.37−2.14) and progression-free survival (pooled HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.10−1.54). In subgroup analyses of patients with “high-volume” and “low-volume”, alkaline phosphatase was associated with the overall survival (pooled HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.21−1.64 and pooled HR 1.64; 95% CI, 1.06−2.52, respectively).

Conclusions

In this meta-analysis, elevated serum levels of alkaline phosphatase were associated with an increased risk of overall mortality and disease progression in patients with hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. In contrast, those were not associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality. Alkaline phosphatase was independently associated with overall survival in both patients with “high-volume” and “low-volume” hormone-sensitive prostate cancer. Alkaline phosphatase may be useful for being integrated into prognostic tools that help guide treatment strategy, thereby facilitating the shared decision making process.

Treatment strategy for metastatic prostate cancer with extremely high PSA level: reconsidering the value of vintage therapy

The prognostic significance of initial prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level for metastatic prostate cancer remains uncertain. We investigated the differences in prognosis and response to hormonal therapies of metastatic prostate cancer patients according to initial PSA levels. We analyzed 184 patients diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer and divided them into three PSA level groups as follows: low (<100 ng ml⁻¹), intermediate (100–999 ng ml⁻¹), and high (≥1000 ng ml⁻¹). All patients received androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) immediately. We investigated PSA progression-free survival (PFS) for first-line ADT and overall survival (OS) within each of the three groups. Furthermore, we analyzed response to antiandrogen withdrawal (AW) and alternative antiandrogen (AA) therapies after development of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). No significant differences in OS were observed among the three groups (P = 0.654). Patients with high PSA levels had significantly short PFS for first-line ADT (P = 0.037). Conversely, patients in the high PSA level group had significantly longer PFS when treated with AW than those in the low PSA level group (P = 0.047). Furthermore, patients with high PSA levels had significantly longer PFS when provided with AA therapy (P = 0.049). PSA responders to AW and AA therapies had significantly longer survival after CRPC development than nonresponders (P = 0.011 and P < 0.001, respectively). Thus, extremely high PSA level predicted favorable response to vintage sequential ADT and AW. The current data suggest a novel aspect of extremely high PSA value as a favorable prognostic marker after development of CRPC.

[CLINICAL STUDY OF THE PROSTATE CANCERS WITH A SERUM PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN LEVEL OF MORE THAN 100 ng/ml AT THE FIRST DIAGNOSIS]

In patients with prostate cancer high serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis was generally regarded as a strong impression of advanced disease with distant metastasis and poor prognosis. (Objective) We reported a retrospective study of prognostic factor and Overall survival (OS) in patients with prostate specific antigen (PSA) level of greater than 100 ng/ml (PSA≥100 ng/ml). (Subjects and methods) Between January 2002 and December 2015, 60 patients were diagnosed prostate cancer with PSA≥100 ng/ml and performed hormonal monotherapy at Kanazawa Medical University hospital. We evaluated initial PSA level, Gleason score, Gleason Grading Group, clinical stage, site of metastasis, PSA nadir level, Time to PSA nadir (TTN), serum Hemoglobin (Hb) level, serum C-Reactive Protein (CRP) level, serum Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) level, serum Alkaline Phosphatase (ALP) level, clinical passage and survival time. (Results) The median age of the patients was 73 years old (54-90) and the initial PSA levels ranged from 100 ng/ml to 15,823 ng/ml (median 390).Prognostic factors of overall survival were site of metastasis, Gleason score, Gleason Grading Group, PSA nadir level, TTN, serum CRP level, serum LDH level and serum ALP level at the diagnosis. In multivariate analysis serum LDH level remained an independent predictor of OS.

Development and Validation of a Novel Prognostic Model for Predicting Overall Survival in Treatment-naïve Castration-sensitive Metastatic Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

There has been growth in the treatment options for castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa), but without clear guidance for risk stratification.

OBJECTIVE

To identify clinical parameters associated with overall survival (OS) and establish a prognostic model for use with treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective review of 304 patients treated at Kyoto University Hospital was performed. A prognostic model was created using clinical parameters associated with OS. The model was externally validated in an independent cohort of 520 patients.

OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Multivariable analysis was performed to identify the clinical parameters associated with OS. Risk scores were calculated using Cox proportional hazards analysis for each combination of risk factors, and patients were grouped into categories based on those scores.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

Over 80% of the cohort had a Gleason sum score ≥8. The median OS was 53mo among patients with CHAARTED high-volume PCa (n=172) and 131mo among those with low-volume PCa (n=100). Independent factors associated with OS were extent of disease score ≥2 or the presence of liver metastasis; lactate dehydrogenase >250U/L; and a primary Gleason score of 5. The median OS for the high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups according to the new model were 28mo, 59mo, and not reached, respectively; the corresponding values in the validation cohort were 41mo, 63mo, and not reached. Harrell's C-index was 0.649.

CONCLUSIONS

Our simple and reproducible prognostic model for treatment-naïve castration-sensitive mPCa could aid in risk stratification and treatment selection.

PATIENT SUMMARY

We identified clinical parameters associated with prognosis in castration-sensitive metastatic prostate cancer and established a reproducible prognostic model that could be used to guide treatment decisions.

Prognostic value of serum alkaline phosphatase in the survival of prostate cancer: evidence from a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Many studies have evaluated the relationship between alkaline phosphatase (ALP) and the prognosis for prostate cancer (PCa). But they have not reached a widespread consensus yet. Therefore, we completed a meta-analysis to ascertain the significance of ALP and the prognosis for PCa.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in the PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases. HRs concerning overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were extracted to evaluate the impacts of ALP on the prognosis for PCa. Subgroup analyses were conducted on different study types, regions, sample sizes, and cutoff values. Sensitivity analysis was performed by removing one study in sequence.

RESULTS

A total of 63 studies from 54 articles with 16,135 patients were included in this meta-analysis. The pooled results indicated that high baseline ALP was associated with obviously poor OS (HR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.47-2.06) and PFS (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.13-2.26) in patients with PCa. The pooled HR for bone-specific ALP and OS was 1.76 (95% CI: 1.45-2.15). However, no association between ALP and CSS (HR=1.002, 95% CI: 0.998-1.005) was found for PCa. The results of subgroup analyses were all in accordance with the main findings. Sensitivity analysis suggested that no single study could affect the stability of the results.

CONCLUSION

High serum ALP is significantly associated with poor OS and PFS except for CSS in PCa. ALP is an efficient and convenient biomarker for PCa prognosis.

Prostate specific antigen (PSA) kinetic as a prognostic factor in metastatic prostate cancer receiving androgen deprivation therapy: systematic review and meta-analysis

Aim: Metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has a poor outcome with median survival of two to five years. The use of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) is a gold standard in management of this stage.  Aim of this study is to analyze the prognostic value of PSA kinetics of patient treated with hormonal therapy related to survival from several published studies Method: Systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using literature searching in the electronic databases of MEDLINE, Science Direct, and Cochrane Library. Inclusion criteria were mPCa receiving ADT, a study analyzing Progression Free Survival (PFS), Overall Survival (OS), or Cancer Specific Survival (CSS) and prognostic factor of survival related to PSA kinetics (initial PSA, PSA nadir, and time to achieve nadir (TTN)). The exclusion criteria were metastatic castration resistant of prostate cancer (mCRPC) and non-metastatic disease. Generic inverse variance method was used to combine hazard ratio (HR) within the studies. Meta-analysis was performed using Review Manager 5.2 and a p-value <0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: We found 873 citations throughout database searching with 17 studies were consistent with inclusion criteria. However, just 10 studies were analyzed in the quantitative analysis. Most of the studies had a good methodological quality based on Ottawa Scale. No significant association between initial PSA and PFS. In addition, there was no association between initial PSA and CSS/ OS. We found association of reduced PFS (HR 2.22; 95% CI 1.82 to 2.70) and OS/ CSS (HR 3.31; 95% CI 2.01-5.43) of patient with high PSA nadir. Shorter TTN was correlated with poor result of survival either PFS (HR 2.41; 95% CI 1.19 - 4.86) or CSS/ OS (HR 1.80; 95%CI  1.42 - 2.30) Conclusion: Initial PSA before starting ADT do not associated with survival in mPCa.  There is association of PSA nadir and TTN with survival.

Gene-Set Reduction for Analysis of Major and Minor Gleason Scores Based on Differential Gene-Set Expressions and Biological Pathways in Prostate Cancer

The Gleason score (GS) plays an important role in prostate cancer detection and treatment. It is calculated based on a sum between its major and minor components, each ranging from 1 to 5, assigned after examination of sample cells taken from each side of the prostate gland during biopsy. A total GS of at least 7 is associated with more aggressive prostate cancer. However, it is still unclear how prostate cancer outcomes differ for various distributions of GS between its major and minor components. This article applies Significance Analysis of Microarray for Gene-Set Reduction to a real microarray study of patients with prostate cancer and identifies 13 core genes differentially expressed between patients with a major GS of 3 and a minor GS of 4, or (3,4), vs patients with a combination of (4,3), starting from a less aggressive GS combination of (3,3), and moving toward a more aggressive one of (4,4) via gray areas of (3,4) and (4,3). The resulting core genes may improve understanding of prostate cancer in patients with a total GS of 7, the most common grade and most challenging with respect to prognosis.

Chemotherapy for metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer

Incorporation of docetaxel into metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer treatment has added a new treatment option to a disease state that had previously not seen change for decades. Early attempts of a chemo-hormonal approach for castration-sensitive prostate cancer were not successful. With the demonstration of survival benefits using docetaxel in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer, this encouraged continued research with docetaxel given earlier in the disease course. Three randomized phase III trials have defined the benefits of docetaxel in the metastatic castration-sensitive prostate cancer setting; however, there remain questions and controversies on the appropriate and optimal patient selection.

Bone-related Parameters are the Main Prognostic Factors for Overall Survival in Men with Bone Metastases from Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported on prognostic factors for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC); however, most of these studies were conducted before docetaxel chemotherapy was approved for CRPC.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of multiple parameters in men with bone metastases due to CRPC using a contemporary dataset.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The analysis included 1901 patients with metastatic CRPC enrolled in an international, multicenter, randomized, double-blind phase 3 trial conducted between May 2006 and October 2009.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

We developed multivariate validated Cox proportional hazards models and nomograms to estimate 12-mo and 24-mo survival probabilities and median survival time.

RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS

The median (95% confidence interval) overall survival was 20 (18, 21) mo. The final model included 12 of the 15 potential prognostic variables evaluated (concordance index 0.72). Seven bone-related variables were associated with longer survival in the final model: alkaline phosphatase ≤143 U/l (p<0.0001); bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (BSAP) <146 U/l (p<0.0001); corrected urinary N-telopeptide (uNTx) ≤50 nmol/mmol (p=0.0008); mild or no pain (Brief Pain Inventory-Short Form [BPI-SF] score ≤4) (p<0.0001); no previous skeletal-related event (SRE; p=0.0002); longer time from initial diagnosis to first bone metastasis (p<0.0001); and longer time from first bone metastasis to randomization (p<0.0001). Other significant predictors of improved survival included prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level <10 ng/ml (p<0.0001), hemoglobin >128g/l (p<0.0001), absence of visceral metastases (p<0.0001), Eastern Co-operative Oncology Group (ECOG) score ≤1 (p=0.017), and younger age (p=0.008). Nomograms were generated based on the parameters included in the final validated models (with/without uNTx and BSAP). One limitation was that lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, a known prognostic factor, were not available in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

Bone-related parameters are strong prognostic variables for overall survival in patients with bone metastases from CRPC.

PATIENT SUMMARY

Survival time is variable in patients with bone metastases from prostate cancer. We found that factors related to bone help to predict how long a patient will live.

Survival outcomes of Chinese metastatic prostate cancer patients following primary androgen deprivation therapy in relation to prostate-specific antigen nadir level

AIM

To evaluate the progression-free survival (PFS), cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of Chinese metastatic prostate cancer patients following primary androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in relation to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) nadir level.

METHODS

All Chinese prostate cancer patients with bone metastases who were treated with primary ADT from 2000 to 2009 were included. Patients' and disease characteristics were recorded. Patients were categorized into two PSA nadir groups (≤1.0 and >1.0 ng/mL). Associations of PSA nadir with PFS, CSS and OS were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. The survival outcomes of the two PSA nadir groups were presented.

RESULTS

Four hundred nineteen patients were included in the study. PSA nadir appeared to be a good predictor for PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 1.86, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-2.56, P < 0.001), CSS (HR 1.60, 95% CI 0.98-2.64, P = 0.063) and OS (HR 1.77, 95% CI 1.20-2.41, P < 0.001) upon multivariate Cox regression analyses. In the PSA nadir groups of ≤1.0 and >1.0 ng/mL, the median PFS were 15 and 10 months, and the 1-year PFS rates were 64% and 40%, respectively; the median CSS were 42 and 27 months, and the 5-year OS rates were 53% and 28%, respectively; and the median OS were 41 and 24 months, and the 5-year OS rates were 45% and 19%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher PSA nadir was associated with shorter PFS, CSS and OS in Chinese metastatic prostate cancer patients following primary ADT. The survival outcomes may serve as references in deciding the best treatment strategy in Chinese prostate cancer patients.

Prognostic impact of synchronous second primary malignancies on the overall survival of patients with metastatic prostate cancer

PURPOSE

We determined the prognostic impact of a synchronous second primary malignancy on overall survival in patients with metastatic prostate cancer. Identifying features that stratify the risk of overall survival is critical for judiciously applying definitive therapy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the records of 582 consecutive patients with prostate cancer diagnosed with metastasis between May 7, 1998 and August 27, 2011. Patient age, body mass index, ECOG performance status, Charlson comorbidity index, prostate specific antigen, T and N stages, Gleason and ASA® scores, progression to castration resistant prostate cancer, prior local treatments and synchronous second primary malignancies at metastasis were assessed. A synchronous second primary malignancy was defined as a cytologically or histologically proven solid malignancy. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was done to estimate overall survival by second primary type and evaluate predictive variables.

RESULTS

A total of 164 patients (28.1%) had a synchronous second primary malignancy, of which colorectal (9.1%), stomach (7.3%) and lung (7.1%) cancers were the most prevalent types. During a median followup of 34.1 months patients without a synchronous second primary malignancy had a significantly higher overall survival rate than those with lung or stomach cancer. However, men without a second malignancy had outcomes comparable to those in men with colorectal cancer. Clinical stage T4 or greater, ASA score 1 or greater and lung or stomach cancer were independent predictors of overall mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of patients with metastatic prostate cancer present with a synchronous second primary malignancy. Definitive therapy targeting prostate cancer may confer a limited survival benefit in patients with synchronous lung or stomach cancer.

The utility of prostate-specific antigen in the management of advanced prostate cancer

To review current prostate-specific antigen (PSA) metrics used in monitoring treatment of advanced prostate cancer, with a specific focus on castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) therapies. Explore what is known about the correlation between PSA and androgen levels as well as underlying reasons for persistent PSA expression and serum elevation in CRPC, and outline suggestions for use of PSA in managing patients with advanced prostate cancer. A comprehensive search of the PubMed database for English language articles through April 2012 was performed using the following Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) keywords or terms, alone or in combination: 'prostate cancer'; 'prostate cancer treatment'; 'prostate cancer outcomes'; 'prostate-specific antigen'; 'androgen receptor'; 'advanced prostate cancer'; 'castration-resistant prostate cancer'; 'biomarkers'. Bibliographies of relevant articles were searched for additional references. Relevant medical society and regulatory agency web sites from the USA and Europe were accessed for issued guidance on PSA use. PSA doubling time (PSADT) is a useful metric for determining which patients should be considered for androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) after failing local treatment or for second-line therapies after failing ADT. However, it is not a validated surrogate for survival and no therapy has received regulatory approval based upon PSADT characteristics. PSA nadir and time-to-nadir have been identified as possible prognostic markers for patients receiving ADT. There is no universally accepted definition for PSA progression, nor is PSA progression a regulatory-approved surrogate for clinical progression in drug approval trials. PSA responses to second-line therapies can vary and are not considered by regulatory agencies as valid surrogates for clinical endpoints, so they must be assessed in the context of each individual therapy and trial design. PSA expression in CRPC is often a reflection of persistent androgen receptor activity. While we can provide guidance for use of PSA monitoring in managing patients with advanced prostate cancer based on the data at hand, there is an urgent need for prospective analyses of refined PSA metrics in conjunction with newer prostate cancer biomarkers in clinical trials to provide stronger evidence for their roles as surrogate endpoints.

The prognostic factors of effective ketoconazole treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: who can benefit from ketoconazole therapy?

We investigated the prognostic value of some variables of effective ketoconazole treatment for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). In total, 163 patients with mCRPC were eligible, receiving ketoconazole 200-400 mg three times daily with replacement doses of prednisone. Progression-free survival (PFS) was calculated from the beginning of the ketoconazole therapy to the onset of disease progression. The prognostic value of different variables for PFS was assessed by Cox regression analysis. The median PFS was 2.6 months (0.5-8.6 months) for these patients. The serum testosterone level changed during therapy, which decreased when the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) declined; the serum testosterone level increased as the levels of PSA relapsed. The median PFS values for patients associated with different factors were the following: 1.4 and 3.5 months for a nadir PSA of ≥ 0.2 and <0.2 ng ml(-1), respectively (hazard rate (HR)=4.767, P<0.001); 3.1 and 1.6 months for a baseline testosterone of ≥ 0.1 and <0.1 ng ml(-1), respectively (HR=2.865, P=0.012); 2.8 and 1.9 months for a baseline haemoglobin of ≥ 120 and <120 g l(-1), respectively (HR=1.605, P<0.001); and 3.0 and 1.9 months for a PSA doubling time (PSADT) of ≥ 2.0 and <2.0 months, respectively (HR=1.454, P=0.017). A risk model was constructed according to the four factors that divided patients into three subgroups of low risk (0-1 factors), moderate risk (2 factors) and high risk (3-4 factors) with PFS values of 3.6, 3.0 and 1.4 months, respectively (HR=1.619, P<0.001). A nadir PSA of ≥ 0.2 ng ml(-1), a baseline testosterone of <0.1 ng ml(-1), a baseline haemoglobin of <120 g l(-1) and a PSADT of <2 months were associated with a poor PFS. This risk model could provide evidence to predict the survival benefit of ketoconazole therapy.