Screening and brief intervention for obesity in primary care: cost-effectiveness analysis in the BWeL trial

Projection of the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease between 2022 and 2027 in Spain: Results of the Inside CKD project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing health problem affecting between 10% and 15% of the Spanish population. The lack of updated projections of the evolution of the disease burden hinders the development of evidence-based health policies and interventions to optimise the management of the disease and prevent its progression. The aim of this study is to project the evolution of the clinical and economic burden of CKD in Spain between 2022 and 2027.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Inside CKD uses a validated microsimulation approach to project the burden of CKD. The projection is based on a virtual population according to Spanish demographics, literature, national data registries and clinical expert opinion. Costs associated with CKD management, renal replacement therapy (RRT), cardiovascular complications and arterial comorbidities were included.

RESULTS

In Spain, an absolute increase in the prevalence of CKD of 1% (from 10.7% to 11.7%) is expected between 2022 and 2027, corresponding to an increase from 5.14 million to 5.68 million patients in 2027. However, only one third of CKD patients would be diagnosed. Of these diagnosed patients, 3.9% will require RRT in 2027, an increase of 14.7% from 2022. A total of 654,281 accumulated deaths are expected in patients with CKD diagnosed between 2022 and 2027. The economic burden of diagnosed CKD is expected to increase by 13.8% to 4.89 billion euros in 2027, representing 5.56% of total Spanish public health expenditure in 2027 (compared to 4.88% in 2022), of which 42.5% will be allocated to RRT (2.4% of public health expenditure).

CONCLUSIONS

The Inside CKD project highlights the growing clinical, economic and social burden of CKD in Spain expected by 2027. Progression to more advanced stages with the need for RRT and associated complications represent a small proportion of the total CKD population, but contribute significantly to overall costs.

Strategies to improve the implementation of preventive care in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Action on smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in primary care is effective and cost-effective, but implementation is low. The aim was to examine the effectiveness of strategies to increase the implementation of preventive healthcare in primary care.

METHODS

CINAHL, CENTRAL, The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Dissertations & Theses - Global, Embase, Europe PMC, MEDLINE and PsycINFO were searched from inception through 5 October 2023 with no date of publication or language limits. Randomised trials, non-randomised trials, controlled before-after studies and interrupted time series studies comparing implementation strategies (team changes; changes to the electronic patient registry; facilitated relay of information; continuous quality improvement; clinician education; clinical reminders; financial incentives or multicomponent interventions) to usual care were included. Two reviewers screened studies, extracted data, and assessed bias with an adapted Cochrane risk of bias tool for Effective Practice and Organisation of Care reviews. Meta-analysis was conducted with random-effects models. Narrative synthesis was conducted where meta-analysis was not possible. Outcome measures included process and behavioural outcomes at the closest point to 12 months for each implementation strategy.

RESULTS

Eighty-five studies were included comprising of 4,210,946 participants from 3713 clusters in 71 cluster trials, 6748 participants in 5 randomised trials, 5,966,552 participants in 8 interrupted time series, and 176,061 participants in 1 controlled before after study. There was evidence that clinical reminders (OR 3.46; 95% CI 1.72-6.96; I2 = 89.4%), clinician education (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.46-2.46; I2 = 80.6%), facilitated relay of information (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.10-3.46, I2 = 88.2%), and multicomponent interventions (OR 3.10; 95% CI 1.60-5.99, I2 = 96.1%) increased processes of care. Multicomponent intervention results were robust to sensitivity analysis. There was no evidence that other implementation strategies affected processes of care or that any of the implementation strategies improved behavioural outcomes. No studies reported on interventions specifically designed for remote consultations. Limitations included high statistical heterogeneity and many studies did not account for clustering.

CONCLUSIONS

Multicomponent interventions may be the most effective implementation strategy. There was no evidence that implementation interventions improved behavioural outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022350912.

Projecting the clinical burden of chronic kidney disease at the patient level (Inside CKD): a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global concern that presents significant challenges for disease management. Several factors drive CKD prevalence, including primary risk factors, such as type 2 diabetes and hypertension, and an ageing population. Inside CKD is an international initiative that aims to raise awareness of the substantial burden incurred by CKD.

Methods

Using a peer-reviewed microsimulation method, the clinical burden of CKD was estimated from 2022 to 2027. Demographic data from the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific/Middle East were used to generate virtual populations and to project the prevalence of CKD, kidney replacement therapy, associated cardiovascular complications, comorbid conditions, and all-cause mortality in the CKD population over the modelled time frame.

Findings

Across the 31 participating countries/regions, the total prevalence of CKD was projected to rise to 436.6 million cases by 2027 (an increase of 5.8% from 2022), with most cases (∼80%) undiagnosed. Inside CKD projected a mean of 8859 cases of heart failure, 10,244 of myocardial infarction, and 7797 of stroke per 100,000 patients with CKD by 2027.

Interpretation

The clinical impact of CKD is substantial and likely to increase; the high prevalence of undiagnosed cases and associated complications may benefit from the implementation of health policy interventions that promote screening, earlier diagnosis, and interventions to improve outcomes.

Funding

AstraZeneca.

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the delivery of preventive healthcare? An interrupted time series analysis of adults in English primary care from 2018 to 2022

OBJECTIVE

Offering advice and support for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity is an evidence-based component of primary care. The objective was to quantify the impact of the pandemic on the rate of advice or referral for these four risk factors.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using primary care data from 1847 practices in England and 21,191,389 patients contributing to the Oxford Clinical Informatics Digital Hub. An interrupted time series analysis was undertaken with a single change point (March 2020). Monthly trends were modelled from 1st January 2018 - 30th June 2022 using segmented linear regression.

RESULTS

There was an initial step reduction in advice and referrals for smoking, obesity, excess alcohol, and physical inactivity in March 2020. By June 2022, advice on smoking (slope change -0.02 events per hundred patient years/month (EPH/month); 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.17, 0.21), obesity (0.06 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.12), alcohol (0.02 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.05) and physical inactivity (0.05 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.09) had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, smoking cessation referral remained lower (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI -0.01, 0.09), excess alcohol referral returned to similar levels (0.0005 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.0002, 0.0008), while referral for obesity (0.14 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.10, 0.19) and physical inactivity (0.01 EPH/month; 95% CI 0.01, 0.02) increased relative to pre-pandemic rates.

CONCLUSION

Advice and support for smoking, and advice for weight, excess alcohol and physical inactivity have not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Clinicians and policy makers should prioritise preventive care in COVID-19 recovery plans.

Preventing liver disease with policy measures to tackle alcohol consumption and obesity: The HEPAHEALTH II study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chronic liver disease (CLD) causes 1.8% of all deaths in Europe, many of them from liver cancer. We estimated the impact of several policy interventions in France, the Netherlands, and Romania.

METHODS

We used a validated microsimulation model to assess seven different policy scenarios in 2022-2030: a minimum unit price (MUP) of alcohol of €0.70 or €1, a volumetric alcohol tax, a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax, food marketing restrictions, plus two different combinations of these policies compared against current policies (the 'inaction' scenario).

RESULTS

All policies reduced the burden of CLD and liver cancer. The largest impact was observed for a MUP of €1, which by 2030 would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 7.1% to 7.3% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania compared with inaction. For liver cancer, the corresponding reductions in cumulative incidence were between 4.8% to 5.8%. Implementing a package containing a MUP of €0.70, a volumetric alcohol tax, and an SSB tax would reduce the cumulative incidence of CLD by between 4.29% to 4.71% and of liver cancer by between 3.47% to 3.95% in France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The total predicted reduction in healthcare costs by 2030 was greatest with the €1 MUP scenario, with a reduction for liver cancer costs of €8.18M and €612.49M in the Netherlands and France, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Policy measures tackling primary risk factors for CLD and liver cancer, such as the implementation of a MUP of €1 and/or a MUP of €0.70 plus SSB tax could markedly reduce the number of Europeans with CLD or liver cancer.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Policymakers must be aware that alcohol and obesity are the two leading risk factors for chronic liver disease and liver cancer in Europe and both are expected to increase in the future if no policy interventions are made. This study assessed the potential of different public health policy measures to mitigate the impact of alcohol consumption and obesity on the general population in three European countries: France, the Netherlands, and Romania. The findings support introducing a €1 minimum unit price for alcohol to reduce the burden of chronic liver disease. In addition, the study shows the importance of targeting multiple drivers of alcohol consumption and obesogenic products simultaneously via a harmonized fiscal policy framework, to complement efforts being made within health systems. These findings should encourage policymakers to introduce such policy measures across Europe to reduce the burden of liver disease. The modeling methods used in this study can assist in structuring similar modeling in other regions to expand on this study's findings.

Defining and Diagnosing Obesity in India: A Call for Advocacy and Action

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has more than doubled since 1980, and it is predicted that around two-thirds of the global burden of the disease will be attributed to chronic non-communicable diseases. Developing countries are experiencing a more dramatic rise in the prevalence of obesity in recent years. As per National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5), one in every four Indians is now having obesity. It has been reported that being overweight and obese is a significant problem among different socioeconomic spectrums of men and women in India, especially among the elderly, people residing in urban regions, and diverse socioeconomic strata. There is an urgent need to identify obesity as a chronic disease requiring immediate attention, mandating timely screening, timely treatment, and economical ways of achieving and managing weight loss across the country. In this review, the authors have discussed various aspects of overweight and obesity and critically appraised the current status of obesity in India, its public health implications, the significance of screening, the role of BMI and other parameters in diagnosing obesity, and the need for treatment and cost-effective prescriptions.

How Could Different Obesity Scenarios Alter the Burden of Type 2 Diabetes and Liver Disease in Saudi Arabia?

INTRODUCTION

Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and liver disease, and obesity-attributable liver disease is a common indication for liver transplant. Obesity prevalence in Saudi Arabia (SA) has increased in recent decades. SA has committed to the WHO "halt obesity" target to shift prevalence to 2010 levels by 2025. We estimated the future benefits of reducing obesity in SA on incidence and costs of T2DM and liver disease under two policy scenarios: (1) SA meets the "halt obesity" target; (2) population body mass index (BMI) is reduced by 1% annually from 2020 to 2040.

METHODS

We developed a dynamic microsimulation of working-age people (20-59 years) in SA between 2010 and 2040. Model inputs included population demographic, disease and healthcare cost data, and relative risks of diseases associated with obesity. In our two policy scenarios, we manipulated population BMI and compared predicted disease incidence and associated healthcare costs to a baseline "no change" scenario.

RESULTS

Adults <35 years are expected to meet the "halt obesity" target, but those ≥35 years are not. Obesity is set to decline for females, but to increase amongst males 35-59 years. If SA's working-age population achieved either scenario, >1.15 million combined cases of T2DM, liver disease, and liver cancer could be avoided by 2040. Healthcare cost savings for the "halt obesity" and 1% reduction scenarios are 46.7 and 32.8 billion USD, respectively.

CONCLUSION

SA's younger working-age population is set to meet the "halt obesity" target, but those aged 35-59 are off track. Even a modest annual 1% BMI reduction could result in substantial future health and economic benefits. Our findings strongly support universal initiatives to reduce population-level obesity, with targeted initiatives for working-age people ≥35 years of age.

The future health and economic burden of obesity-attributable type 2 diabetes and liver disease among the working-age population in Saudi Arabia

Background

Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) are increasing in Saudi Arabia (SA). Among other conditions, these risk factors increase the likelihood of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), which in turn increases risks for advanced liver diseases, such as non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and cancer. The goal of this study was to quantify the health and economic burden of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease in SA.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation of the SA population to quantify the future incidence and direct health care costs of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease, including liver cancer. Model inputs included population demographics, body mass index, incidence, mortality and direct health care costs of T2DM and liver disease and relative risks of each condition as a function of BMI category. Model outputs included age- and sex-disaggregated incidence of obesity-attributable T2DM and liver disease and their direct health care costs for SA’s working-age population (20–59 years) between 2020 and 2040.

Results

Between 2020 and 2040, the available data predicts 1,976,593 [± 1834] new cases of T2DM, 285,346 [±874] new cases of chronic liver diseases, and 2,101 [± 150] new cases of liver cancer attributable to obesity, amongst working-age people. By 2040, the direct health care costs of these obesity-attributable diseases are predicted to be 127,956,508,540 [± 51,882,446] USD.

Conclusions

The increase in obesity-associated T2DM and liver disease emphasises the urgent need for obesity interventions and strategies to meaningfully reduce the future health and economic burden of T2DM, chronic liver diseases and liver cancer in SA.

People with weight-related long-term conditions want support from GPs: A qualitative interview study

Two-thirds of UK adults do not have an up-to-date weight record in primary care. Some studies suggest that doctors do not raise the topic of weight management for fear of causing embarrassment or offence, or are doubtful whether people will make changes. However, for people with weight-related long-term conditions, conversations with general practitioners (GPs) can be crucial. Our study explores how people with long-term conditions associated with overweight recall and interpret conversations about weight in British primary care. An experienced qualitative researcher interviewed 41 people aged <42 years with long-term conditions associated with overweight. A maximum variation sample was sought, and transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. We revealed that patients with weight-related long-term conditions have different experiences and expectations about the role of GPs in supporting weight management. If a GP did not raise weight management in the context of the long-term condition patients formed the impression that their overweight was not seen as "doctorable" that is, as an appropriate topic for the consultation, rather than a personal or "lifestyle" concern. This was explained in multiple ways, which are captured in two themes; perceiving weight as "doctorable"; and weight doctoring in primary care. The findings highlight the need for increased attention on weight-related long-term conditions in primary care. Interventions from GPs would be welcome if conducted in a sensitive, non-judgmental manner and based on sound evidence about what works.

Cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery and non-surgical weight management programmes for adults with severe obesity: a decision analysis model

OBJECTIVES

To determine the most cost-effective weight management programmes (WMPs) for adults, in England with severe obesity (BMI ≥ 35 kg/m2), who are more at risk of obesity related diseases.

METHODS

An economic evaluation of five different WMPs: 1) low intensity (WMP1); 2) very low calorie diets (VLCD) added to WMP1; 3) moderate intensity (WMP2); 4) high intensity (Look AHEAD); and 5) Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery, all compared to a baseline scenario representing no WMP. We also compare a VLCD added to WMP1 vs. WMP1 alone. A microsimulation decision analysis model was used to extrapolate the impact of changes in BMI, obtained from a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of WMPs and bariatric surgery, on long-term risks of obesity related disease, costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) measured as incremental cost per QALY gained over a 30-year time horizon from a UK National Health Service (NHS) perspective. Sensitivity analyses explored the impact of long-term weight regain assumptions on results.

RESULTS

RYGB was the most costly intervention but also generated the lowest incidence of obesity related disease and hence the highest QALY gains. Base case ICERs for WMP1, a VLCD added to WMP1, WMP2, Look AHEAD, and RYGB compared to no WMP were £557, £6628, £1540, £23,725 and £10,126 per QALY gained respectively. Adding a VLCD to WMP1 generated an ICER of over £121,000 per QALY compared to WMP1 alone. Sensitivity analysis found that all ICERs were sensitive to the modelled base case, five year post intervention cessation, weight regain assumption.

CONCLUSIONS

RYGB surgery was the most effective and cost-effective use of scarce NHS funding resources. However, where fixed healthcare budgets or patient preferences exclude surgery as an option, a standard 12 week behavioural WMP (WMP1) was the next most cost-effective intervention.

Evaluation of Obesity Management Recorded in Electronic Clinical History: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of obesity is increasing worldwide. Because of their close proximity to the population, primary care physicians and nurses are in a unique position to motivate and advise patients with obesity on a healthy diet and increased physical activity. Drawing from information recorded in electronic clinical records, we evaluated how the general recommendations included in obesity guidelines are being implemented in routine clinical practice.

METHODS

This study drew from the following data from a cohort of 209 patients with obesity that attended primary care consultations: electronic clinical records, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiovascular risk factors, comorbidities and whether their health professional documented compliance with the recommendations of the evidence-based obesity guidelines in their electronic history.

RESULTS

Only 25.4% of the clinical records met all the criteria established in the therapeutic guidelines regarding diet prescription, 1.4% for physical activity and 1.5% for behavioral change activities. The patients whose records mentioned diet prescription and physical activity and who received follow-up consultations for both factors had lower average BMI and WC, although this relationship was not significant after adjusting for baseline.

CONCLUSIONS

We found that only a small number of records in the electronic clinical histories followed the evidence-based obesity guidelines. Recording dietetic prescription and physical exercise in the patient's clinical record is associated with better control of obesity.

What Makes Opportunistic GP Interventions Effective? An Analysis of Behavior Change Techniques Used in 237 GP-Delivered Brief Interventions for Weight Loss

BACKGROUND

Evidence shows that clinician-delivered brief opportunistic interventions are effective in obesity, and guidelines promote their use. However, there is no evidence on how clinicians should do this, and guidelines are not based on clinical evidence.

PURPOSE

A trial (Brief Interventions for Weight Loss [BWeL]) showed that brief opportunistic interventions on obesity that endorsed, offered, and facilitated referral to community weight management service (CWMS) led to 77% agreeing to attend, and 40% attending CWMS, as well as significantly greater weight loss than control at 12 months. We assessed which behavior change techniques (BCTs) doctors used that were associated with CWMS attendance.

METHODS

We coded 237 recorded BWeL interventions using the behavioral change techniques version one taxonomy. We also coded the BWeL training video to examine delivery of recommended BCTs. Mixed effects logistic regression assessed the association between each BCT, the total number of BCTs, and delivery of recommended BCTs, with patient's agreement to attend and actual CWMS attendance.

RESULTS

Of 237 patients, 133 (56%) agreed to attend and 109 (46%) attended. Thirteen BCTs were used more than eight times but none of the 13 were associated with increased attendance. One, "practical social support," was significantly associated with increased patient agreement (odds ratio [OR] = 4.80, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15, 20.13). Delivery of recommended BCTs and the total number of BCTs used were both associated with increased agreement (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.09, 2.23 and OR = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.03, 1.75, respectively), but not attendance at CWMS (OR = 1.20, 95% CI = 0.98-1.47 and OR = 1.08, 95% CI = 0.94-1.24, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There is no evidence that particular BCT can increase the effectiveness of brief opportunistic interventions for obesity in adults. However, using more BCTs and delivery of recommended BCTs may increase agreement to attend community weight management services.

Weight assessment and the provision of weight management advice in primary care: a cross-sectional survey of self-reported practice among general practitioners and practice nurses in the United Kingdom

Background

Although primary care settings provide a large-scale and high-reach opportunity for weight management and obesity prevention, the proportion of adults in the United Kingdom (UK) who report receiving weight management advice is limited. This study examines the self-reported frequency of assessing weight and providing weight management advice by General Practitioners (GPs) and Practice Nurses (PNs) working in primary care in the UK, and differences by practitioner characteristics.

Methods

Cross-sectional survey with GPs and PNs in the UK (n = 2020), conducted January–March 2017. A mock consultation exercise assessed what factors led to calculating a patient’s Body Mass Index (BMI) and whether weight management advice was given after determining the patient had an obese BMI. For all patients, practitioners were asked how often they calculated BMI, how often they gave weight management advice to patients with an obese BMI, and how often they utilised different advice or referral options (each: Always/Often vs. Less often/Never). Binary logistic regressions examined whether frequency of assessing weight and providing advice was associated with practitioner characteristics.

Results

In the mock consultation, physical cues (40%) were most likely to prompt calculation of BMI, and half of practitioners (56%) provided weight management advice after determining the patient had an obese BMI, with GPs less likely to do so than PNs (Odds Ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.47–0.75). Half of practitioners (58%) said they calculated the BMI of all patients Always/Often, with GPs less likely to do so than PNs (OR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.21–0.34). Three quarters (78%) said they provided weight management advice to patients with an obese BMI Always/Often, with GPs less likely to do so than PNs (OR = 0.63, 95% CI: 0.47–0.85). Weight management advice was provided more frequently than referrals, particularly suggesting increased physical activity (93%) and diet modification (89%).

Conclusions

Consistent with previous research, the findings suggest that opportunities to provide weight management advice in primary care, including to patients with an obese BMI, are potentially missed. Future research should test alternative mechanisms to increase weight assessment and advice provision, examine the effectiveness of advice frequently given, and seek solutions to reported barriers for providing weight management advice.

Brief interventions for obesity when patients are asked to pay for weight loss treatment: an observational study in primary care with an embedded randomised trial

BACKGROUND

A brief intervention whereby GPs opportunistically facilitate an NHS-funded referral to a weight loss programme is clinically and cost-effective.

AIM

To test the acceptability of a brief intervention and attendance at a weight loss programme when GPs facilitate a referral that requires patients to pay for the service.

DESIGN AND SETTING

An observational study of the effect of a GP encouraging attendance at a weight loss programme requiring self-payment in the West Midlands from 16 October 2018 to 30 November 2018, to compare with a previous trial in England in which the service was NHS-funded.

METHOD

Sixty patients with obesity who consecutively attended primary care appointments received an opportunistic brief intervention by a GP to endorse and offer a referral to a weight loss programme at the patient's own expense. Participants were randomised to GPs who either stated the weekly monetary cost of the programme (basic cost) or who compared the weekly cost to an everyday discretionary item (cost comparison). Participants were subsequently asked to report whether they had attended a weight loss programme.

RESULTS

Overall, 47% of participants (n = 28) accepted the referral; 50% (n = 15) in the basic cost group and 43% (n = 13) in the cost comparison group. This was significantly less than in a previous study when the programme was NHS-funded (77%, n = 722/940; P<0.0001). Most participants reported the intervention to be helpful/very helpful and appropriate/very appropriate (78%, n = 46/59 and 85%, n = 50/59, respectively) but scores were significantly lower than when the programme was NHS-funded (92% n = 851/922 and 88% n = 813/922, respectively; P = 0.004). One person (2%) attended the weight loss programme, which is significantly lower than the 40% of participants who attended when the programme was NHS-funded (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

GP referral to a weight loss programme that requires patients to pay rather than offering an NHS-funded programme is acceptable; however, it results in almost no attendance.

Internet of Things-Enabled Technologies for Weight Management in Children and Adolescents: Protocol for a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Childhood obesity is a serious global issue, leading to increased medical spending on obesity-related diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There is a need for health care services that link health behavior to risk factors, such as diet and physical activity, and that provide better advice and feedback to users, which Internet of Things-enabled technologies could facilitate.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the systematic review will be to identify available Internet of Things-enabled technologies for weight management of children and adolescents (users younger than 18 years). It will also aim to understand the use, effectiveness, and feasibility of these technologies.

METHODS

We will search the Medline, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest Central, and IEEE Xplore Digital Library databases for studies published after 2010, using a combination of keywords and subject headings related to health activity tracking, youth, and Internet of Things. In addition, a Google search to identify grey literature will be conducted. Two authors will independently screen the titles and abstracts identified from the search and accept or reject the studies according to the study inclusion criteria. Any discrepancies will then be discussed and resolved. The quality of the included studies will be assessed using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklists. Data from included studies will be extracted into a predesigned form to identify the types of devices or apps, Internet of Things applications, and health outcomes related to weight management.

RESULTS

A preliminary search on Medline returned 484 results. The publication of the final systematic review is expected in mid-2020.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness and feasibility of physical activity trackers and consumer wearables for different patient groups have been well reviewed, but there are currently no published reviews that look into these technologies in the wider Internet of Things context. This review aims to address this gap by examining Internet of Things-enabled technologies that are designed for youth weight management and thus inform further research and clinical studies to reduce childhood obesity.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

PRR1-10.2196/16930.

A Systematic Review of Methods to Predict Weight Trajectories in Health Economic Models of Behavioral Weight-Management Programs: The Potential Role of Psychosocial Factors

Objectives. There is limited evidence on the long-term effectiveness of behavioral weight-management interventions, and thus, when conducting health economic modeling, assumptions are made about weight trajectories. The aims of this review were to examine these assumptions made about weight trajectories, the evidence sources used to justify them, and the impact of assumptions on estimated cost-effectiveness. Given the evidence that some psychosocial variables are associated with weight-loss trajectories, we also aimed to examine the extent to which psychosocial variables have been used to estimate weight trajectories and whether psychosocial variables were measured within cited evidence sources. Methods. A search of databases (Medline, PubMed, Cochrane, NHS Economic Evaluation, Embase, PSYCinfo, CINAHL, EconLit) was conducted using keywords related to overweight, weight-management, and economic evaluation. Economic evaluations of weight-management interventions that included modeling beyond trial data were included. Results. Within the 38 eligible articles, 6 types of assumptions were reported (weight loss maintained, weight loss regained immediately, linear weight regain, subgroup-specific trajectories, exponential decay of effect, maintenance followed by regain). Fifteen articles cited at least 1 evidence source to support the assumption reported. The assumption used affected the assessment of cost-effectiveness in 9 of the 19 studies that tested this in sensitivity analyses. None of the articles reported using psychosocial factors to estimate weight trajectories. However, psychosocial factors were measured in evidence sources cited by 11 health economic models. Conclusions. Given the range of weight trajectories reported and the potential impact on funding decisions, further research is warranted to investigate how psychosocial variables measured in trials can be used within health economic models to simulate heterogeneous weight trajectories and potentially improve the accuracy of cost-effectiveness estimates.

Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of brief weight-loss counselling by dietitian-trained practice nurses, in a high-income-country case study.

DESIGN

A literature search of the impact of dietary counselling on BMI was performed to source the 'best' effect size for use in modelling. This was combined with multiple other input parameters (e.g. epidemiological and cost parameters for obesity-related diseases, likely uptake of counselling) in an established multistate life-table model with fourteen parallel BMI-related disease life tables using a 3 % discount rate.

SETTING

New Zealand (NZ).

PARTICIPANTS

We calculated quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained and health-system costs over the remainder of the lifespan of the NZ population alive in 2011 (n 4·4 million).

RESULTS

Counselling was estimated to result in an increase of 250 QALY (95 % uncertainty interval -70, 560 QALY) over the population's lifetime. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 2011 $NZ 138 200 per QALY gained (2018 $US 102 700). Per capita QALY gains were higher for Māori (Indigenous population) than for non-Māori, but were still not cost-effective. If willingness-to-pay was set to the level of gross domestic product per capita per QALY gained (i.e. 2011 $NZ 45 000 or 2018 $US 33 400), the probability that the intervention would be cost-effective was 2 %.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides modelling-level evidence that brief dietary counselling for weight loss in primary care generates relatively small health gains at the population level and is unlikely to be cost-effective.