Dynamics of starvation and recovery predict extinction risk and both Damuth's law and Cope's rule

On the Dynamics of Mortality and the Ephemeral Nature of Mammalian Megafauna

AbstractEnergy flow through consumer-resource interactions is largely determined by body size. Allometric relationships govern the dynamics of populations by impacting rates of reproduction as well as alternative sources of mortality, which have differential impacts on smaller to larger organisms. Here we derive and investigate the timescales associated with four alternative sources of mortality for terrestrial mammals: mortality from starvation, mortality associated with aging, mortality from consumption by predators, and mortality introduced by anthropogenic subsidized harvest. The incorporation of these allometric relationships into a minimal consumer-resource model illuminates central constraints that may contribute to the structure of mammalian communities. Our framework reveals that while starvation largely impacts smaller-bodied species, the allometry of senescence is expected to be more difficult to observe. In contrast, external predation and subsidized harvest have greater impacts on the populations of larger-bodied species. Moreover, the inclusion of predation mortality reveals mass thresholds for mammalian herbivores, where dynamic instabilities may limit the feasibility of megafaunal populations. We show how these thresholds vary with alternative predator-prey mass relationships, which are not well understood within terrestrial systems. Finally, we use our framework to predict the harvest pressure required to induce mass-specific extinctions, which closely align with previous estimates of anthropogenic megafaunal exploitation in both paleontological and historical contexts. Together our results underscore the tenuous nature of megafaunal populations and how different sources of mortality may contribute to their ephemeral nature over evolutionary time.

Beyond the kill: The allometry of predation behaviours among large carnivores

The costs of foraging can be high while also carrying significant risks, especially for consumers feeding at the top of the food chain. To mitigate these risks, many predators supplement active hunting with scavenging and kleptoparasitic behaviours, in some cases specializing in these alternative modes of predation. The factors that drive differential utilization of these tactics from species to species are not well understood. Here, we use an energetics approach to investigate the survival advantages of hunting, scavenging and kleptoparasitism as a function of predator, prey and potential competitor body sizes for terrestrial mammalian carnivores. The results of our framework reveal that predator tactics become more diverse closer to starvation, while the deployment of scavenging and kleptoparasitism is strongly constrained by the ratio of predator to prey body size. Our model accurately predicts a behavioural transition away from hunting towards alternative modes of predation with increasing prey size for predators spanning an order of magnitude in body size, closely matching observational data across a range of species. We then show that this behavioural boundary follows an allometric power-law scaling relationship where the predator size scales with an exponent nearing 3/4 with prey size, meaning that this behavioural switch occurs at relatively larger threshold prey body size for larger carnivores. We suggest that our approach may provide a holistic framework for guiding future observational efforts exploring the diverse array of predator foraging behaviours.

Ecological determinants of Cope's rule and its inverse

Cope's rule posits that evolution gradually increases the body size in lineages. Over the last decades, two schools of thought have fueled a debate on the applicability of Cope's rule by reporting empirical evidence, respectively, for and against Cope's rule. The apparent contradictions thus documented highlight the need for a comprehensive process-based synthesis through which both positions of this debate can be understood and reconciled. Here, we use a process-based community-evolution model to investigate the eco-evolutionary emergence of Cope's rule. We report three characteristic macroevolutionary patterns, of which only two are consistent with Cope's rule. First, we find that Cope's rule applies when species interactions solely depend on relative differences in body size and the risk of lineage extinction is low. Second, in environments with higher risk of lineage extinction, the recurrent evolutionary elimination of top predators induces cyclic evolution toward larger body sizes, according to a macroevolutionary pattern we call the recurrent Cope's rule. Third, when interactions between species are determined not only by their body sizes but also by their ecological niches, the recurrent Cope's rule may get inverted, leading to cyclic evolution toward smaller body sizes. This recurrent inverse Cope's rule is characterized by highly dynamic community evolution, involving the diversification of species with large body sizes and the extinction of species with small body sizes. To our knowledge, these results provide the first theoretical foundation for reconciling the contrasting empirical evidence reported on body-size evolution.

A bioenergetic framework for aboveground terrestrial food webs

Bioenergetic approaches have been greatly influential for understanding community functioning and stability and predicting effects of environmental changes on biodiversity. These approaches use allometric relationships to establish species' trophic interactions and consumption rates and have been successfully applied to aquatic ecosystems. Terrestrial ecosystems, where body mass is less predictive of plant-consumer interactions, present inherent challenges that these models have yet to meet. Here, we discuss the processes governing terrestrial plant-consumer interactions and develop a bioenergetic framework integrating those processes. Our framework integrates bioenergetics specific to terrestrial plants and their consumers within a food web approach while also considering mutualistic interactions. Such a framework is poised to advance our understanding of terrestrial food webs and to predict their responses to environmental changes.

Evolutionary causes and consequences of ungulate migration

Ungulate migrations are crucial for maintaining abundant populations and functional ecosystems. However, little is known about how or why migratory behaviour evolved in ungulates. To investigate the evolutionary origins of ungulate migration, we employed phylogenetic path analysis using a comprehensive species-level phylogeny of mammals. We found that 95 of 207 extant ungulate species are at least partially migratory, with migratory behaviour originating independently in 17 lineages. The evolution of migratory behaviour is associated with reliance on grass forage and living at higher latitudes wherein seasonal resource waves are most prevalent. Indeed, originations coincide with mid-Miocene cooling and the subsequent rise of C₄ grasslands. Also, evolving migratory behaviour supported the evolution of larger bodies, allowing ungulates to exploit new ecological space. Reconstructions of migratory behaviour further revealed that seven of ten recently extinct species were probably migratory, suggesting that contemporary migrations are important models for understanding the ecology of the past.

Generalized Structural Kinetic Modeling: A Survey and Guide

Many current challenges involve understanding the complex dynamical interplay between the constituents of systems. Typically, the number of such constituents is high, but only limited data sources on them are available. Conventional dynamical models of complex systems are rarely mathematically tractable and their numerical exploration suffers both from computational and data limitations. Here we review generalized modeling, an alternative approach for formulating dynamical models to gain insights into dynamics and bifurcations of uncertain systems. We argue that this approach deals elegantly with the uncertainties that exist in real world data and enables analytical insight or highly efficient numerical investigation. We provide a survey of recent successes of generalized modeling and a guide to the application of this modeling approach in future studies such as complex integrative ecological models.

Growth, death, and resource competition in sessile organisms

Population-level scaling in ecological systems arises from individual growth and death with competitive constraints. We build on a minimal dynamical model of metabolic growth where the tension between individual growth and mortality determines population size distribution. We then separately include resource competition based on shared capture area. By varying rates of growth, death, and competitive attrition, we connect regular and random spatial patterns across sessile organisms from forests to ants, termites, and fairy circles. Then, we consider transient temporal dynamics in the context of asymmetric competition, such as canopy shading or large colony dominance, whose effects primarily weaken the smaller of two competitors. When such competition couples slow timescales of growth to fast competitive death, it generates population shocks and demographic oscillations similar to those observed in forest data. Our minimal quantitative theory unifies spatiotemporal patterns across sessile organisms through local competition mediated by the laws of metabolic growth, which in turn, are the result of long-term evolutionary dynamics.

Effects of short-term fasting on spontaneous activity and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption in four juvenile fish species with different foraging strategies

To investigate the effects of short-term fasting on spontaneous activity and excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) in sit-and-wait carnivorous southern catfish (Silurus meridionalis), active carnivorous black carp (Mylopharyngodon piceus), active herbivorous grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) and active filter-feeding silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix), each species was divided into a control group and a fasting group (deprived of food for 14 days). Both groups were maintained at 25°C and, at the end of the experimental period, the total movement distance (TMD), percent time spent moving (PTM), ventilation frequency (V_f), pre-exercise oxygen consumption (M(•)O₂) and EPOC response of the experimental fish were measured. The TMD and PTM obtained for the control group of southern catfish were lower than those found for the control groups of the three active species. Short-term fasting resulted in decreases in the TMD and PTM of the southern catfish and black carp and increases in the TMD of grass carp and silver carp. The V_f of southern catfish was significantly higher than those of grass carp and silver carp, whereas the latter was also significantly higher than that of black carp. Short-term fasting resulted in significant increases in the V_f and decreases in the pre-exercise M(•)O₂ of southern catfish and silver carp. Southern catfish and black carp exhibited lower peak post-exercise M(•)O₂ and recovery rates, and relatively higher EPOC magnitudes than grass carp and silver carp. Short-term fasting exerted no significant effects on the peak post-exercise M(•)O₂, but resulted in relatively higher EPOC magnitudes in the four fish species. These results suggest that (1) different fish species exhibit significantly different levels of spontaneous activity and post-exercise M(•)O₂ profiles with different characteristics and that (2) short-term fasting exerts different effects on the level of spontaneous activity in four fish species with different foraging strategies.

Summary: This study compares the spontaneous behavior and exhaustive exercise of four warm-water fish.

Scaling the risk landscape drives optimal life-history strategies and the evolution of grazing

Consumers face numerous risks that can be minimized by incorporating different life-history strategies. How much and when a consumer adds to its energetic reserves or invests in reproduction are key behavioral and physiological adaptations that structure communities. Here we develop a theoretical framework that explicitly accounts for stochastic fluctuations of an individual consumer's energetic reserves while foraging and reproducing on a landscape with resources that range from uniformly distributed to highly clustered. First, we show that the selection of alternative life histories depends on both the mean and variance of resource availability, where depleted and more stochastic environments promote investment in each reproductive event at the expense of future fitness as well as more investment per offspring. We then show that if resource variance scales with body size due to landscape clustering, consumers that forage for clustered foods are susceptible to strong Allee effects, increasing extinction risk. Finally, we show that the proposed relationship between resource distributions, consumer body size, and emergent demographic risk offers key ecological insights into the evolution of large-bodied grazing herbivores from small-bodied browsing ancestors.