Survival of the simplest in microbial evolution

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app .

Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution

The seasonal human influenza virus undergoes rapid evolution, leading to significant changes in circulating viral strains from year to year. These changes are typically driven by adaptive mutations, particularly in the antigenic epitopes, the regions of the viral surface protein haemagglutinin targeted by human antibodies. Here we describe a consistent set of methods for data-driven predictive analysis of viral evolution. Our pipeline integrates four types of data: (1) sequence data of viral isolates collected on a worldwide scale, (2) epidemiological data on incidences, (3) antigenic characterization of circulating viruses, and (4) intrinsic viral phenotypes. From the combined analysis of these data, we obtain estimates of relative fitness for circulating strains and predictions of clade frequencies for periods of up to one year. Furthermore, we obtain comparative estimates of protection against future viral populations for candidate vaccine strains, providing a basis for pre-emptive vaccine strain selection. Continuously updated predictions obtained from the prediction pipeline for influenza and SARS-CoV-2 are available on the website previr.app.

Proteome allocation and the evolution of metabolic cross-feeding

In a common instance of metabolic cross-feeding (MCF), an organism incompletely metabolizes nutrients and releases metabolites that are used by another to produce energy or building blocks. Why would the former waste edible food, and why does this preferentially occur at specific locations in a metabolic pathway have challenged evolutionary theory for decades. To address these questions, we combine adaptive dynamics with an explicit model of cell metabolism, including enzyme-driven catalysis of metabolic reactions and the cellular constraints acting on the proteome that may incur a cost to expressing all enzymes along a pathway. After pointing out that cells should in principle prioritize upstream reactions when metabolites are restrained inside the cell, we show that the occurrence of permeability-driven MCF is rare and requires that an intermediate metabolite be extremely diffusive. Indeed, only at very high levels of membrane permeability (consistent with those of acetate and glycerol, for instance) and under distinctive sets of parameters should the population diversify and MCF evolve. These results help understand the origins of simple microbial communities, such as those that readily evolve in short-term evolutionary experiments, and may later be extended to investigate how evolution has progressively built up today's extremely diverse ecosystems.

A dynamical limit to evolutionary adaptation

Natural selection makes evolutionary adaptation possible even if the overwhelming majority of new mutations are deleterious. However, in rapidly evolving populations where numerous linked mutations occur and segregate simultaneously, clonal interference and genetic hitchhiking can limit the efficiency of selection, allowing deleterious mutations to accumulate over time. This can in principle overwhelm the fitness increases provided by beneficial mutations, leading to an overall fitness decline. Here, we analyze the conditions under which evolution will tend to drive populations to higher versus lower fitness. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the boundary between these two regimes, as a function of parameters such as population size, mutation rates, and selection pressures. This boundary represents a state in which adaptation is precisely balanced by Muller's ratchet, and we show that it can be characterized by rapid molecular evolution without any net fitness change. Finally, we consider the implications of global fitness-mediated epistasis and find that under some circumstances, this can drive populations toward the boundary state, which can thus represent a long-term evolutionary attractor.

Using Constrained-Disorder Principle-Based Systems to Improve the Performance of Digital Twins in Biological Systems

Digital twins are computer programs that use real-world data to create simulations that predict the performance of processes, products, and systems. Digital twins may integrate artificial intelligence to improve their outputs. Models for dealing with uncertainties and noise are used to improve the accuracy of digital twins. Most currently used systems aim to reduce noise to improve their outputs. Nevertheless, biological systems are characterized by inherent variability, which is necessary for their proper function. The constrained-disorder principle defines living systems as having a disorder as part of their existence and proper operation while kept within dynamic boundaries. In the present paper, we review the role of noise in complex systems and its use in bioengineering. We describe the use of digital twins for medical applications and current methods for dealing with noise and uncertainties in modeling. The paper presents methods to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of digital twin systems by continuously implementing variability signatures while simultaneously reducing unwanted noise in their inputs and outputs. Accounting for the noisy internal and external environments of complex biological systems is necessary for the future design of improved, more accurate digital twins.

A dynamical limit to evolutionary adaptation

Natural selection makes evolutionary adaptation possible even if the overwhelming majority of new mutations are deleterious. However, in rapidly evolving populations where numerous linked mutations occur and segregate simultaneously, clonal interference and genetic hitchhiking can limit the efficiency of selection, allowing deleterious mutations to accumulate over time. This can in principle overwhelm the fitness increases provided by beneficial mutations, leading to an overall fitness decline. Here, we analyze the conditions under which evolution will tend to drive populations to higher versus lower fitness. Our analysis focuses on quantifying the boundary between these two regimes, as a function of parameters such as population size, mutation rates, and selection pressures. This boundary represents a state in which adaptation is precisely balanced by Muller's ratchet, and we show that it can be characterized by rapid molecular evolution without any net fitness change. Finally, we consider the implications of global fitness-mediated epistasis, and find that under some circumstances this can drive populations towards the boundary state, which can thus represent a long-term evolutionary attractor.

High fraction of silent recombination in a finite-population two-locus neutral birth-death-mutation model

A precise estimate of allele and haplotype polymorphism is of great interest in theoretical population genetics, but also has practical applications, such as bone marrow registries management. Allele polymorphism is driven mainly by point mutations, while haplotype polymorphism is also affected by recombination. Current estimates treat recombination as mutations in an infinite site model. We here show that even in the simple case of two loci in a haploid individual, for a finite population, most recombination events produce existing haplotypes, and as such are silent. Silent recombination considerably reduces the total number of haplotypes expected from the infinite site model for populations that are not much larger than one over the mutation rate. Moreover, in contrast with mutations, the number of haplotypes does not grow linearly with the population size. We hence propose a more accurate estimate of the total number of haplotypes that takes into account silent recombination. We study large-scale human leukocyte antigen (HLA) haplotype frequencies from human populations to show that the current estimated recombination rate in the HLA region is underestimated.

Innate immune pathways act synergistically to constrain RNA virus evolution in Drosophila melanogaster

Host-pathogen interactions impose recurrent selective pressures that lead to constant adaptation and counter-adaptation in both competing species. Here, we sought to study this evolutionary arms-race and assessed the impact of the innate immune system on viral population diversity and evolution, using Drosophila melanogaster as model host and its natural pathogen Drosophila C virus (DCV). We isogenized eight fly genotypes generating animals defective for RNAi, Imd and Toll innate immune pathways as well as pathogen sensing and gut renewal pathways. Wild-type or mutant flies were then orally infected with DCV, and the virus was serially passaged ten times via reinfection in naïve flies. Viral population diversity was studied after each viral passage by high-throughput sequencing, and infection phenotypes were assessed at the beginning and at the end of the evolution experiment. We found that the absence of any of the various immune pathways studied increased viral genetic diversity while attenuating virulence. Strikingly, these effects were observed in a range of host factors described as having mainly antiviral or antibacterial functions. Together, our results indicate that the innate immune system as a whole, and not specific antiviral defense pathways in isolation, generally constrains viral diversity and evolution.

Population genetics of polymorphism and divergence in rapidly evolving populations

In rapidly evolving populations, numerous beneficial and deleterious mutations can arise and segregate within a population at the same time. In this regime, evolutionary dynamics cannot be analyzed using traditional population genetic approaches that assume that sites evolve independently. Instead, the dynamics of many loci must be analyzed simultaneously. Recent work has made progress by first analyzing the fitness variation within a population, and then studying how individual lineages interact with this traveling fitness wave. However, these "traveling wave" models have previously been restricted to extreme cases where selection on individual mutations is either much faster or much slower than the typical coalescent timescale Tc. In this work, we show how the traveling wave framework can be extended to intermediate regimes in which the scaled fitness effects of mutations (Tcs) are neither large nor small compared to one. This enables us to describe the dynamics of populations subject to a wide range of fitness effects, and in particular, in cases where it is not immediately clear which mutations are most important in shaping the dynamics and statistics of genetic diversity. We use this approach to derive new expressions for the fixation probabilities and site frequency spectra of mutations as a function of their scaled fitness effects, along with related results for the coalescent timescale Tc and the rate of adaptation or Muller's ratchet. We find that competition between linked mutations can have a dramatic impact on the proportions of neutral and selected polymorphisms, which is not simply summarized by the scaled selection coefficient Tcs. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for population genetic inferences.

Adaptive evolution of hybrid bacteria by horizontal gene transfer

Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is an important factor in bacterial evolution that can act across species boundaries. Yet, we know little about rate and genomic targets of cross-lineage gene transfer and about its effects on the recipient organism's physiology and fitness. Here, we address these questions in a parallel evolution experiment with two Bacillus subtilis lineages of 7% sequence divergence. We observe rapid evolution of hybrid organisms: gene transfer swaps ∼12% of the core genome in just 200 generations, and 60% of core genes are replaced in at least one population. By genomics, transcriptomics, fitness assays, and statistical modeling, we show that transfer generates adaptive evolution and functional alterations in hybrids. Specifically, our experiments reveal a strong, repeatable fitness increase of evolved populations in the stationary growth phase. By genomic analysis of the transfer statistics across replicate populations, we infer that selection on HGT has a broad genetic basis: 40% of the observed transfers are adaptive. At the level of functional gene networks, we find signatures of negative, positive, and epistatic selection, consistent with hybrid incompatibilities and adaptive evolution of network functions. Our results suggest that gene transfer navigates a complex cross-lineage fitness landscape, bridging epistatic barriers along multiple high-fitness paths.

Antigenic waves of virus-immune coevolution

The evolution of many microbes and pathogens, including circulating viruses such as seasonal influenza, is driven by immune pressure from the host population. In turn, the immune systems of infected populations get updated, chasing viruses even farther away. Quantitatively understanding how these dynamics result in observed patterns of rapid pathogen and immune adaptation is instrumental to epidemiological and evolutionary forecasting. Here we present a mathematical theory of coevolution between immune systems and viruses in a finite-dimensional antigenic space, which describes the cross-reactivity of viral strains and immune systems primed by previous infections. We show the emergence of an antigenic wave that is pushed forward and canalized by cross-reactivity. We obtain analytical results for shape, speed, and angular diffusion of the wave. In particular, we show that viral-immune coevolution generates an emergent timescale, the persistence time of the wave's direction in antigenic space, which can be much longer than the coalescence time of the viral population. We compare these dynamics to the observed antigenic turnover of influenza strains, and we discuss how the dimensionality of antigenic space impacts the predictability of the evolutionary dynamics. Our results provide a concrete and tractable framework to describe pathogen-host coevolution.

Evolutionary stalling and a limit on the power of natural selection to improve a cellular module

Cells consist of molecular modules which perform vital biological functions. Cellular modules are key units of adaptive evolution because organismal fitness depends on their performance. Theory shows that in rapidly evolving populations, such as those of many microbes, adaptation is driven primarily by common beneficial mutations with large effects, while other mutations behave as if they are effectively neutral. As a consequence, if a module can be improved only by rare and/or weak beneficial mutations, its adaptive evolution would stall. However, such evolutionary stalling has not been empirically demonstrated, and it is unclear to what extent stalling may limit the power of natural selection to improve modules. Here we empirically characterize how natural selection improves the translation machinery (TM), an essential cellular module. We experimentally evolved populations of Escherichia coli with genetically perturbed TMs for 1,000 generations. Populations with severe TM defects initially adapted via mutations in the TM, but TM adaptation stalled within about 300 generations. We estimate that the genetic load in our populations incurred by residual TM defects ranges from 0.5 to 19%. Finally, we found evidence that both epistasis and the depletion of the pool of beneficial mutations contributed to evolutionary stalling. Our results suggest that cellular modules may not be fully optimized by natural selection despite the availability of adaptive mutations.

Eco-evolutionary control of pathogens

Vaccinations and therapies targeting evolving pathogens aim to curb the pathogen and to steer it toward a controlled evolutionary state. Control is leveraged against the pathogen’s intrinsic evolutionary forces, which in turn, can drive an escape from control. Here, we analyze a simple model of control, in which a host produces antibodies that bind the pathogen. We show that the leverages of host (or external intervention) and pathogen are often highly imbalanced: an error threshold separates parameter regions of efficient control from regions of compromised control, where the pathogen retains the upper hand. Because control efficiency can be predicted from few measurable fitness parameters, our results establish a proof of principle how control theory can guide interventions against evolving pathogens.

Control can alter the eco-evolutionary dynamics of a target pathogen in two ways, by changing its population size and by directed evolution of new functions. Here, we develop a payoff model of eco-evolutionary control based on strategies of evolution, regulation, and computational forecasting. We apply this model to pathogen control by molecular antibody–antigen binding with a tunable dosage of antibodies. By analytical solution, we obtain optimal dosage protocols and establish a phase diagram with an error threshold delineating parameter regimes of successful and compromised control. The solution identifies few independently measurable fitness parameters that predict the outcome of control. Our analysis shows how optimal control strategies depend on mutation rate and population size of the pathogen, and how monitoring and computational forecasting affect protocols and efficiency of control. We argue that these results carry over to more general systems and are elements of an emerging eco-evolutionary control theory.

Randomised controlled trials in systemic sclerosis: patient selection and endpoints for next generation trials

The heterogeneity in the natural history of systemic sclerosis is a major issue in both clinical management and trial design and is dictated by the complex and multifactorial pathogenesis of the disease. Systemic sclerosis is an autoimmune disease and therefore many trials for the disease have targeted immune activation pathways; however, the phase 3 trials that have been positive have targeted pathways directly linked to tissue damage rather than systemic immune activation. On one hand, these results represent enormous progress that has led to the first approved drugs for this extremely challenging condition. On the other hand, they have revealed a possible selection bias in our current approach to trial design. In this Series paper, we describe randomised controlled trials from the past 4 years we believe to be most relevant to future strategies in systemic sclerosis. Based on advances in our understanding of the pathogenesis and natural history of disease, we will also identify important points to consider in the design of the next generation of systemic sclerosis trials.

High-Throughput Screening Technology in Industrial Biotechnology

Based on the development of automatic devices and rapid assay methods, various high-throughput screening (HTS) strategies have been established for improving the performance of industrial microorganisms. We discuss the most significant factors that can improve HTS efficiency, including the construction of screening libraries with high diversity and the use of new detection methods to expand the search range and highlight target compounds. We also summarize applications of HTS for enhancing the performance of industrial microorganisms. Current challenges and potential improvements to HTS in industrial biotechnology are discussed in the context of rapid developments in synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. Rational integration will be an important driving force for constructing more efficient industrial microorganisms with wider applications in biotechnology.