Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems

Shifts of the pond area ratio for lowland polders: Implication for nutrient control

Shifts for natural ecosystems were increasingly concerned due to its profound impacts on ecosystem services. Ponds within lowland artificial watersheds (polders) play a critical role in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling. From the perspective of N & P control in management practices, it is needed to determine an optimal pond area ratio for polders. For this purpose, our study proposed a process-based modelling framework to investigate the response of polder N & P loss to pond area, and thus to determine the threshold value of pond area ratio to achieve maximum N & P reduction for polders. The proposed framework included two process-based models (NDP and PDP) specially developed to describe N & P dynamics in lowland polders. To evaluate the proposed performance of the framework, it was applied to 171 polders in Zhong River Watershed in Lake Taihu Basin, eastern China. Our investigation results revealed that the correlation between polder N & P reduction rate and pond area ratio had an abrupt shift of 13.6 %, 14.7 % for N & P, respectively. Therefore, polders with a pond area ratio of 13.6-14.7 % had the largest N & P reduction (5.27 and 0.19 kg/ha). Polder size affected P reduction rate, with smaller polders (<200 ha) showing a higher P reduction rate, while it did not affect N reduction rate. Compared with annual precipitation, rainy-season precipitation more significantly (P<0.01) determined polder N & P reduction. This study demonstrated the use of our process-based framework in characterizing the shifts for the pond area ratio for polders, and thus provided technical support for N & P control of lowland areas in water management practices.

Ecosystem-size relationships of river populations and communities

Knowledge of ecosystem-size influences on river populations and communities is integral to the balancing of human and environmental needs for water. The multiple dimensions of dendritic river networks complicate understanding of ecosystem-size influences, but could be resolved by the development of scaling relationships. We highlight the importance of physical constraints limiting predator body sizes, movements, and population sizes in small rivers, and where river contraction limits space or creates stressful conditions affecting community stability and food webs. Investigations of the scaling and contingency of these processes will be insightful because of the underlying generality and scale independence of such relationships. Doing so will also pinpoint damaging water-management practices and identify which aspects of river size can be most usefully manipulated in river restoration.

Transient social-ecological dynamics reveal signals of decoupling in a highly disturbed Anthropocene landscape

Understanding the transient dynamics of interlinked social-ecological systems (SES) is imperative for assessing sustainability in the Anthropocene. However, how to identify critical transitions in real-world SES remains a formidable challenge. In this study, we present an evolutionary framework to characterize these dynamics over an extended historical timeline. Our approach leverages multidecadal rates of change in socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental, and cutting-edge sedimentary ancient DNA records from China's Yangtze River Delta, one of the most densely populated and intensively modified landscapes on Earth. Our analysis reveals two significant social-ecological transitions characterized by contrasting interactions and feedback spanning several centuries. Initially, the regional SES exhibited a loosely connected and ecologically sustainable regime. Nevertheless, starting in the 1950s, an increasingly interconnected regime emerged, ultimately resulting in the crossing of tipping points and an unprecedented acceleration in soil erosion, water eutrophication, and ecosystem degradation. Remarkably, the second transition occurring around the 2000s, featured a notable decoupling of socioeconomic development from ecoenvironmental degradation. This decoupling phenomenon signifies a more desirable reconfiguration of the regional SES, furnishing essential insights not only for the Yangtze River Basin but also for regions worldwide grappling with similar sustainability challenges. Our extensive multidecadal empirical investigation underscores the value of coevolutionary approaches in understanding and addressing social-ecological system dynamics.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data

Research aimed at identifying indicators of persistent abrupt shifts in ecological communities, a.k.a regime shifts, has led to the development of a suite of early warning signals (EWSs). As these often perform inaccurately when applied to real-world observational data, it remains unclear whether critical transitions are the dominant mechanism of regime shifts and, if so, which EWS methods can predict them. Here, using multi-trophic planktonic data on multiple lakes from around the world, we classify both lake dynamics and the reliability of classic and second generation EWSs methods to predict whole-ecosystem change. We find few instances of critical transitions, with different trophic levels often expressing different forms of abrupt change. The ability to predict this change is highly processing dependant, with most indicators not performing better than chance, multivariate EWSs being weakly superior to univariate, and a recent machine learning model performing poorly. Our results suggest that predictive ecology should start to move away from the concept of critical transitions, developing methods suitable for predicting resilience loss not limited to the strict bounds of bifurcation theory.

Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness

Manifestations of climate change are often shown as gradual changes in physical or biogeochemical properties¹. Components of the climate system, however, can show stepwise shifts from one regime to another, as a nonlinear response of the system to a changing forcing². Here we show that the Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thicker and deformed to thinner and more uniform ice cover. Continuous sea ice monitoring in the Fram Strait over the last three decades revealed the shift. After the shift, the fraction of thick and deformed ice dropped by half and has not recovered to date. The timing of the shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in residence time of sea ice in the Arctic Basin, initiated first in 2005 and followed by 2007. We demonstrate that a simple model describing the stochastic process of dynamic sea ice thickening explains the observed ice thickness changes as a result of the reduced residence time. Our study highlights the long-lasting impact of climate change on the Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time and its connection to the coupled ocean-sea ice processes in the adjacent marginal seas and shelves of the Arctic Ocean.

Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

Coral reef benthic community changes in the Anthropocene: Biogeographic heterogeneity, overlooked configurations, and methodology

Non-random community changes are becoming more frequent in many ecosystems. In coral reefs, changes towards communities dominated by other than hard corals are increasing in frequency, with severe impacts on ecosystem functioning and provision of ecosystem services. Although new research suggests that a variety of alternative communities (i.e. not dominated by hard corals) exist, knowledge on the global diversity and functioning of alternative coral reef benthic communities, especially those not dominated by algae, remains scattered. In this systematic review and meta-analysis of 523 articles, we analyse the different coral reef benthic community changes reported to date and discuss the advantages and limitations of the methods used to study these changes. Furthermore, we used field cover data (1116 reefs from the ReefCheck database) to explore the biogeographic and latitudinal patterns in dominant benthic organisms. We found a mismatch between literature focus on coral-algal changes (over half of the studies analysed) and observed global natural patterns. We identified strong biogeographic patterns, with the largest and most biodiverse biogeographic regions (Western and Central Indo-Pacific) presenting previously overlooked soft-coral-dominated communities as the most abundant alternative community. Finally, we discuss the potential biases associated with methods that overlook ecologically important cryptobenthic communities and the potential of new technological advances in improving monitoring efforts. As coral reef communities inevitably and swiftly change under changing ocean conditions, there is an urgent need to better understand the distribution, dynamics as well as the ecological and societal impacts of these new communities.

Regime shifts in a shallow lake over 12 years: consequences for taxonomic and functional diversity, and ecosystem multifunctionality

Under increasing nutrient loading, shallow lakes may shift from a state of clear water dominated by submerged macrophytes to a turbid state dominated by phytoplankton or a shaded state dominated by floating macrophytes. How such regime shifts mediate the relationship between taxonomic and functional diversity and lake multifunctionality is poorly understood. We employed a detailed database describing a shallow lake over a 12-year period during which the lake has displayed all the three states (clear, turbid, and shaded) to investigate how species richness, functional diversity of fish and zooplankton, ecosystem multifunctionality, and five individual ecosystem functions (nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, standing fish biomass, algae production, and light availability) differ among states. We also evaluated how the relationship between biodiversity (species richness and functional diversity) and multifunctionality is affected by regime shifts. We showed that species richness and the functional diversity of fish and zooplankton were highest during the clear state. The clear state also maintained the highest values of multifunctionality as well as standing fish biomass production, algae biomass, and light availability, whereas the turbid and shaded states had higher nutrient concentrations. Functional diversity was the best predictor of multifunctionality. The relationship between functional diversity and multifunctionality was strongly positive during the clear state, but such relationship became flatter after the shift to the turbid or shaded state. Our findings illustrate that focusing on functional traits may provide a more mechanistic understanding of how regime shifts affect biodiversity and the consequences for ecosystem functioning. Regime shifts towards a turbid or shaded state negatively affect the taxonomic and functional diversity of fish and zooplankton, which in turn impairs the multifunctionality of shallow lakes.

Scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal, milestones and indicators for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature's contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets-the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met-should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.

Hydrologic and nutrient-driven regime shifts of cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal communities in a large shallow lake: Evidence from empirical state indicator and ecological network analyses

The detection and prediction of lake ecosystem responses to environmental changes are pressing scientific challenge of major global relevance. Specifically, an understanding of lake ecosystem stability over long-term scales is urgently needed to identify impending ecosystem regime shifts induced by human activities and improve lake ecosystem protection. This study investigated regime shifts in cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal communities in a large shallow lake over a century in response to nutrient enrichment and hydrologic regulation using evidence from empirical state indicators and ecological network analyses of sedimentary-inferred communities. The diversity and structure of cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal communities were investigated from sedimentary DNA records and used, for the first time, as state variables of the lake ecosystem to detect lake stability. Two regime shifts were inferred in the 1970s and 2000s based on temporal analysis of empirical indicators. Co-occurrence network analysis based on taxonomic abundance distributions and presence/absence patterns also supported the two regime shifts based on architectural features of the ecological networks. Moreover, the associations of cyanobacterial and eukaryotic algal taxa were observed to be non-random across time. The abrupt driver-mediated regime shift in the 1970s is characterized by the disappearance of submerged vegetation, significantly increased relative abundances of Microcystis and Chlorophyta taxa, and was primarily caused by sluice construction. The critical transition observed in the 2000s was manifested by the occurrence of serious cyanobacterial blooms and was triggered by increased nutrient loading with the development of urbanization and agricultural intensification. This study reveals the important roles of hydrologic regulation and nutrient loading in the temporal successional dynamics of a shallow lake ecosystem, providing new insights into regime shifts of lake ecosystems that can help inform future efforts to predict important lake ecosystem state changes.

Measuring the Structure of a Technology System for Directing Technological Transition

Technological advancements have generated a "techno-sphere" within which all humans live. However, the capacity to direct technology development lags far behind technology development itself. This study deciphers the structural characteristics of a technology system using three pairs of features: systemicity and complexity (scalar), centrality and diversity (structural), and adaptability and inertia (structural); and at micro-, meso-, and macrolevels. By applying this approach in Chinese agricultural and water technology systems in the Yellow River Region and the Yangtze River Region from the beginning of agriculture in ≈8000 BC to the end of preindustrial agriculture in 1911, it is found that there exist trade-off relationships between the centrality and diversity of a technology system, there exist alternative dominations of adaptivity and inertia in development of a technology system, and there exist time-lag phenomena of change in a technology system between mesolevel and macrolevel. It is also identified that a larger-scale, more diverse and adaptive technology system is observed in the Yellow River Region whereas the technology system in the Yangtze River Region is more rapidly expanding in scale and mainly dominated by inertia. These discoveries will assist increasing the capacity of managing and directing technological transition in future.

Ecosystem shift of a mountain lake under climate and human pressure: A move out from the safe operating space

A multiproxy approach including chironomid, diatom, pollen and geochemical analyses was applied on short gravitational cores retrieved from an alpine lake (Lacul Bâlea) in the Southern Carpathians (Romania) to unveil how this lake responded to natural and anthropogenic forcing over the past 500 years. On the basis of chironomid and diatom assemblage changes, and supported by sediment chemical data and historical information, we distinguished two main phases in lake evolution. Before 1926 the lake was dominated by chironomids belonging to Micropsectra insignilobus-type and benthic diatoms suggesting well-oxygenated oligotrophic environment with only small-scale disturbance. We considered this state as the lake's safe operational space. After 1926 significant changes occurred: Tanytarsus lugens-type and T. mendax-type chironomids took over dominance and collector filterers increased until 1970 pointing to an increase in available nutrients. The diatom community showed the most pronounced change between 1950 and 1992 when planktonic diatoms increased. The highest trophic level was reconstructed between 1970 and 1992, while the indicator species of increasing nutrient availability, Asterionella formosa spread from 1982 and decreased rapidly at 1992. Statistical analyses evidenced that the main driver of the diatom community change was atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) fertilization that drastically moved the community towards planktonic diatom dominance from 1950. The transformation of the chironomid community was primarily driven by summer mean temperature increase that also changed the dominant feeding guild from collector gatherers to collector filterers. Our results overall suggest that the speed of ecosystem reorganisation showed an unprecedented increase over the last 100 years; biological systems in many cases underwent threshold type changes, while several system components displayed non-hysteretic change between alternating community composition. We conclude that Lake Bâlea is outside of its safe operating space today. The main trigger of changes since 1926 was climate change and human impact acting synergically.

Synthetic soil crusts against green-desert transitions: a spatial model

Semiarid ecosystems are threatened by global warming due to longer dehydration times and increasing soil degradation. Mounting evidence indicates that, given the current trends, drylands are likely to expand and possibly experience catastrophic shifts from vegetated to desert states. Here, we explore a recent suggestion based on the concept of ecosystem terraformation, where a synthetic organism is used to counterbalance some of the nonlinear effects causing the presence of such tipping points. Using an explicit spatial model incorporating facilitation and considering a simplification of states found in semiarid ecosystems including vegetation, fertile and desert soil, we investigate how engineered microorganisms can shape the fate of these ecosystems. Specifically, two different, but complementary, terraformation strategies are proposed: Cooperation-based: C-terraformation; and Dispersion-based: D-terraformation. The first strategy involves the use of soil synthetic microorganisms to introduce cooperative loops (facilitation) with the vegetation. The second one involves the introduction of engineered microorganisms improving their dispersal capacity, thus facilitating the transition from desert to fertile soil. We show that small modifications enhancing cooperative loops can effectively modify the aridity level of the critical transition found at increasing soil degradation rates, also identifying a stronger protection against soil degradation by using the D-terraformation strategy. The same results are found in a mean-field model providing insights into the transitions and dynamics tied to these terraformation strategies. The potential consequences and extensions of these models are discussed.