The influence of the brittle-ductile transition zone on aftershock and foreshock occurrence

Verifying the Magnitude Dependence in Earthquake Occurrence

The existence of magnitude dependence in earthquake triggering has been reported. Such a correlation is linked to the issue of seismic predictability and it remains under intense debate whether it is physical or is caused by incomplete data due to the missing short-term aftershocks. Working firstly with a synthetic catalog generated by a numerical model that captures most statistical features of earthquakes and then with a high-resolution earthquake catalog for the Amatrice-Norcia (2016) sequence in Italy, where for the latter case we employ the stochastic declustering method to reconstruct the family tree among seismic events and limit our analysis to events above the magnitude of completeness, we found that the hypothesis of magnitude correlation can be rejected.

Viscoelastic Slider Blocks as a Model for a Seismogenic Fault

In this work, a model is proposed to examine the role of viscoelasticity in the generation of simulated earthquake-like events. This model serves to investigate how nonlinear processes in the Earth's crust affect the triggering and decay patterns of earthquake sequences. These synthetic earthquake events are numerically simulated using a slider-block model containing viscoelastic standard linear solid (SLS) elements to reproduce the dynamics of an earthquake fault. The simulated system exhibits elements of self-organized criticality, and results in the generation of avalanches that behave similarly to naturally occurring seismic events. The model behavior is analyzed using the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, which suitably represents the observed triggering and decay patterns; however, parameter estimates deviate from those resulting from natural aftershock sequences. Simulated aftershock sequences from this model are characterized by slightly larger p-values, indicating a faster-than-normal decay of aftershock rates within the system. The ETAS fit, along with realistic simulated frequency-size distributions, supports the inclusion of viscoelastic rheology to model the seismogenic fault dynamics.

On catching the preparatory phase of damaging earthquakes: an example from central Italy

How, when and where large earthquakes are generated remain fundamental unsolved scientific questions. Intercepting when a fault system starts deviating from its steady behavior by monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution and dynamic source properties of micro-to-small earthquakes can have high potential as tool for identifying the preparatory phase of large earthquakes. We analyze the seismic activity that preceded the Mw 6.3 earthquake that hit L'Aquila on 6 April 2009 in central Italy, and we show that the seismic catalog information can be transformed into features allowing us to track in a statistical framework the spatio-temporal evolution of seismicity. Features associated to foreshocks show different patterns from the background seismicity that occurred in the previous years. We show that features ensemble allows to clearly capture the activation phase of the main event. Nonetheless, foreshocks share similar clustering properties of previous seismic sequences not culminating in large earthquakes, and thus generating questions on their use as potential precursor for earthquake sequences prone to evolve into catastrophic sequences.

Static friction coefficient depends on the external pressure and block shape due to precursor slip

Amontons' law states that the maximum static friction force on a solid object is proportional to the loading force and is independent of the apparent contact area. This law indicates that the static friction coefficient does not depend on the external pressure or object shape. Here, we numerically investigate the sliding motion of a 3D viscoelastic block on a rigid substrate using the finite element method (FEM). The macroscopic static friction coefficient decreases with an increase in the external pressure, length, or width of the object, which contradicts Amontons' law. Precursor slip occurs in the 2D interface between the block and substrate before bulk sliding. The decrease in the macroscopic static friction coefficient is scaled by the critical area of the precursor slip. A theoretical analysis of the simplified models reveals that bulk sliding results from the instability of the quasi-static precursor slip caused by velocity-weakening local friction. We also show that the critical slip area determines the macroscopic static friction coefficient, which explains the results of the FEM simulation.

The debate on the earthquake magnitude correlations: a meta-analysis

Among the most important questions that await an answer in seismology, perhaps one is whether there is a correlation between the magnitudes of two successive seismic events. The answer to this question is considered of fundamental importance given the potential effect in forecasting models, such as Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence models. After a meta-analysis of 29 papers, we speculate that given the lack of studies carried out with realistic physical models and given the possible bias due to the lack of events recorded in the experimental seismic catalogs, important improvements are necessary on both fronts to be sure to provide a statistically relevant answer.

Characteristics of Earthquake Cycles: A Cross-Dimensional Comparison of 0D to 3D Numerical Models

High-resolution computer simulations of earthquake sequences in three or even two dimensions pose great demands on time and energy, making lower-cost simplifications a competitive alternative. We systematically study the advantages and limitations of simplifications that eliminate spatial dimensions in quasi-dynamic earthquake sequence models, from 3D models with a 2D fault plane down to 0D or 1D models with a 0D fault point. We demonstrate that, when 2D or 3D models produce quasi-periodic characteristic earthquakes, their behavior is qualitatively similar to lower-dimension models. Certain coseismic characteristics like stress drop and fracture energy are largely controlled by frictional parameters and are thus largely comparable. However, other observations are quantitatively clearly affected by dimension reduction. We find corresponding increases in recurrence interval, coseismic slip, peak slip velocity, and rupture speed. These changes are to a large extent explained by the elimination of velocity-strengthening patches that transmit tectonic loading onto the velocity-weakening fault patch, thereby reducing the interseismic stress rate and enhancing the slip deficit. This explanation is supported by a concise theoretical framework, which explains some of these findings quantitatively and effectively estimates recurrence interval and slip. Through accounting for an equivalent stressing rate at the nucleation size h* into 2D and 3D models, 0D or 1D models can also effectively simulate these earthquake cycle parameters. Given the computational efficiency of lower-dimensional models that run more than a million times faster, this paper aims to provide qualitative and quantitative guidance on economical model design and interpretation of modeling studies.