Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas

Assessing methane emissions and soil carbon stocks in the Camargue coastal wetlands: Management implications for climate change regulation

Coastal wetlands are crucial in climate change regulation due to their capacity to act as either sinks or sources of carbon, resulting from the balance between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly methane (CH4), and soil carbon sequestration. Despite the paramount role of wetlands in climate regulation few studies investigate both aspects. The Camargue is one of the largest wetlands in Europe, yet the ways in which environmental and anthropic factors drive carbon dynamics remain poorly studied. We examined GHG emissions and soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and accumulation rates in twelve representative wetlands, including two rice fields, to gain insights into the carbon dynamics and how it is influenced by hydrology and salinity. Mean CH4 rates ranged between - 87.0 and 131.0 mg m-2 h-1and the main drivers were water conductivity and redox, water table depth and soil temperature. High emission rates were restricted to freshwater conditions during summer flooding periods whereas they were low in wetlands subjected to summer drought and water conductivity higher than 10 mS cm-1. Nitrous oxide emissions were low, ranging from - 0.5 to 0.9 mg N2O m-2 h-1. The SOC stocks in the upper meter ranged from 17 to 90 Mg OC ha-1. Our research highlights the critical role of low-saline wetlands in carbon budgeting which potentially are large sources of CH4 but also contain the largest SOC stocks in the Camargue. Natural hydroperiods, involving summer drought, can maintain them as carbon sinks, but altered hydrology can transform them into sources. Artificial freshwater supply during summer leads to substantial CH4 emissions, offsetting their SOC accumulation rates. In conclusion, we advocate for readjusting the altered hydrology in marshes and for the search of management compromises to ensure the compatibility of economic and leisure activities with the preservation of the inherent climate-regulating capacity of coastal wetlands.

Climate change and urban sprawl: Unveiling the escalating flood risks in river deltas with a deep dive into the GBM river delta

River deltas, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, are highly vulnerable to flooding, exacerbated by intense human activities and rapid urban growth. This study explores the evolution of urban flood risks in the GBM delta under the combined impacts of climate change and urban expansion. Unlike traditional assessments that focus on a single flood source, we consider multiple sources-coastal, fluvial, and pluvial. Our findings indicate that future urban expansion will significantly increase flood exposure, with a substantial rise in flood risk from all sources by the end of this century. Climate change is the main driver of increased coastal flood risks, while urban growth primarily amplifies fluvial, and pluvial flood risks. This highlights the urgent need for adaptive urban planning strategies to mitigate future flooding and support sustainable urban development. The extreme high emissions future scenario (SSP5-8.5) shows the largest urban growth and consequent flood risk, emphasizing the necessity for preemptive measures to mitigate future urban flooding. Our study provides crucial insights into flood risk dynamics in delta environments, aiding policymakers and planners in developing resilience strategies against escalating flood threats.

The spatial overlay effect of urban waterlogging risk and land use value

Urban waterlogging poses a severe threat to lives and property globally, making it crucial to identify the distribution of urban value and waterlogging risk. Previous research has overlooked the heterogeneity of value and risk in spatial distribution. To identify the overlay effect of urban land value and risk, this study employs the Entropy Weighting Method (EM) to assess urban value, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to determine waterlogging risk and key areas (RK), local Moran's I (SC) to identify key areas (HK), and finally Bivariate local Moran's I (DC) to comprehensively evaluate urban value and waterlogging risk to delineate key areas (BH). The results indicate that waterlogging risk is primarily influenced by proximity to water systems (PCA coefficient: 0.567), population density (0.550), and rainfall (0.445). There is a positive correlation between urban value and waterlogging risk, with a global Moran's I of 0.536, indicating that areas with higher urban value also face greater waterlogging risk. The DC method improved identification precision, reducing the BH area by 6.42 and 3.51 km2 compared to RK and HK, accounting for 25.50 % and 15.76 % of the RK and HK identified areas, respectively. At present, rescue resources can access less than one-third of the area within 5 min, but with the DC method, during the centennial rainfall scenario, the accessibility rate within 5 min for the BH area reaches 63 %, and all BH key areas can be covered within 15 min. This study provides a new methodology for identifying key areas of waterlogging disasters and can be used to enhance urban rescue efficiency and the precision management of flood disasters.

Causes and consequences of tipping points in river delta social-ecological systems

The sustainability of social-ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social-ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development.

Hidden delta degradation due to fluvial sediment decline and intensified marine storms

Deltas are threatened by erosion due to climate change and reduced sediment supply, but their response to these changes remains poorly quantified. We investigate the abandoned Yellow River delta that has transitioned from rapid growth to ongoing deterioration due to a river avulsion removing the sediment supply. Integrating bathymetric data, process observations, and sediment transport modeling, we find that while the subaerial delta was stabilized by engineering measures, the subaqueous delta continued to erode due to intensified storms, losing 39% of its mass deposited before the avulsion. Long-term observations show that winter storms initiate scouring of the subaqueous delta, contributing up to 70% of seabed erosion. We then analyze 108 global deltas to assess subaqueous delta erosion risks and identify 17 deltas facing similar situations of sediment decline and storm intensification during the past 40 years. Our findings suggest that subaqueous delta erosion must be integrated into delta sustainability evaluations.

Evolution of groundwater system in the Pearl River Delta and its adjacent shelf since the late Pleistocene

Our extensive field studies demonstrate that saline groundwater inland and freshened groundwater offshore coexist in the same aquifer system in the Pearl River delta and its adjacent shelf. This counterintuitive phenomenon challenges the commonly held assumption that onshore groundwater is typically fresh, while offshore groundwater is saline. To address this knowledge gap, we conduct a series of sophisticated paleo-hydrogeological models to explore the formation mechanism and evolution process of the groundwater system in the inland-shelf systems. Our findings indicate that shelf freshened groundwater has formed during the lowstands since late Pleistocene, while onshore saline groundwater is generated by paleo-seawater intrusion during the Holocene transgression. This reveals that terrestrial and offshore groundwater systems have undergone alternating changes on a geological timescale. The groundwater system exhibits hysteresis responding to paleoclimate changes, with a lag of 7 to 8 thousand years, suggesting that paleoclimatic forcings exert a significantly residual influence on the present-day groundwater system.

Exploring the fidelity of satellite precipitation products in capturing flood risks: A novel framework incorporating hazard and vulnerability dimensions over a sensitive coastal multi-hazard catchment

Complexities involved in flood risks over global coastal multi-hazard catchments are a severe concern for vulnerable communities, infrastructure, and the environment. Data scarcity in these regions often hinders our holistic understanding of flood risks, especially when socio-economic and physical vulnerabilities are involved. The extent to which Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs), which are looked upon as alternatives to ground-based observations, can influence flood risk dynamics remains unexplored. In an attempt to answer the most riveted questions in flood management literature, this study, for the first time, explores the suitability of two competent SPPs, i.e., CHIRPS v2.0 and PERSIANN-CDR, in multi-hazard flood risk mapping. The proposed framework is demonstrated over the sensitive flood-prone deltaic stretches of the Lower Mahanadi River Basin (India). A computationally efficient MIKE+ 1D2D hydrodynamic model is developed to account for the wave propagation of concurrent flood drivers and generate high-resolution flood hazard maps for three disastrous historical flood events (July 2019, September 2020, and August 2022). To understand the hidden characteristics of vulnerability, a comprehensive set of 24 physical and socio-economic indicators is considered in a Shannon-entropy and TOPSIS framework. The variations in flood risk from both SPPs at the finest administrative scale are represented using the novel concept of Bivariate Choropleth, which portrays the marginal and compound contributions of hazard and vulnerability. A superlative performance of CHIRPS v2.0 over PERSIANN-CDR was observed in capturing hydro-climatological behaviors. CHIRPS v2.0-derived flood hazards were found analogous to the SAR-derived maps for all the three events. >70 % of villages display large disparities in flood risk, thereby affirming the role of appropriate SPPs towards efficient flood management. The observations from the study add vital information to the existing flood management policies, especially over resource-constrained regions in low and middle-income nations.

Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development

Coastal flooding due to sea level rise significantly affects socioeconomic development. The dynamic nature of coastal flood risk (CFR) and socioeconomic development level (SDL) leads to uncertainties in understanding their future interplay. This ambiguity challenges coastal nations in devising effective flood adaptation and coastal management strategies. This study quantitatively examines the expected GDP affected (EGA) and population affected (EPA) by coastal flooding in China's coastal zone (CCZ) from 2030 to 2100 under various climate scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5). The future SDL in CCZ is assessed using a method combining the analytic hierarchy process with entropy weight. The future CFR-SDL dynamic relationship is analyzed using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The results reveal that in CCZ under the RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios: by 2100, the EGA and EPA will reach $814.90 billion & 6.17 million people, $828.16 billion & 7.63 million people, and $1568.83 billion & 8.05 million people, respectively, where the coastal cities in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces will face more obvious risks of socioeconomic losses; The total area in the CCZ at "Very high" and "High" level of socioeconomic development by 2100 is projected to reach 11.33 × 103 km2, 12.86 × 103 km2, and 15.82 × 103 km2, respectively, with the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Tianjin-Hebei remaining pivotal for CCZ's socioeconomic growth. Cities such as Lianyungang, Jiaxing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan show notable CCD characteristics, and addressing the trade-off between SDL and CFR is crucial in achieving sustainable development. This study highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding and emphasizes the importance of considering the interrelationship between CFR and SDL when developing coastal flood adaptation policies.

Marine Transgression in Modern Times

Marine transgression associated with rising sea levels causes coastal erosion, landscape transitions, and displacement of human populations globally. This process takes two general forms. Along open-ocean coasts, active transgression occurs when sediment-delivery rates are unable to keep pace with accommodation creation, leading to wave-driven erosion and/or landward translation of coastal landforms. It is highly visible, rapid, and limited to narrow portions of the coast. In contrast, passive transgression is subtler and slower, and impacts broader areas. It occurs along low-energy, inland marine margins; follows existing upland contours; and is characterized predominantly by the landward translation of coastal ecosystems. The nature and relative rates of transgression along these competing margins lead to expansion and/or contraction of the coastal zone and-particularly under the influence of anthropogenic interventions-will dictate future coastal-ecosystem response to sea-level rise, as well as attendant, often inequitable, impacts on human populations.

The expected impacts of sea level on the Mexican Atlantic coast

The Mexican Atlantic coast is vulnerable to sea level rise due to its low, sandy shorelines with extensive adjacent wetlands. The increasing trends at the regional level are similar to global trends (~3 ± 0.04 mm/year): between 1.8 mm/year in Alvarado, Veracruz, to 3.6 mm/year in Isla Mujeres, Quintana Roo. A synthetic model was applied to Mexican Atlantic coast under two sea level rise scenarios for the year 2100. Our objectives were: 1) to identify potentially floodable zones in the face of a sea level rise of one and two meters on the Mexican Atlantic coast with a synthetic model using SRTM and LiDAR topographic data; 2) to determine vegetation and land use affected in the potentially floodable zones; and 3) quantify the vulnerable human population. With topographic data we identified low areas (one and two meters) to assess potentially floodable zones; these were intersected with data layers of vegetation, land use, and human population. Deltaic zones, coastal lagoons and low-lying areas of the Yucatan Peninsula were regions with the largest potentially floodable surface. In the one-meter sea rise scenario, 581,674 ha were identified as potentially floodable, and 896,151 in the two-meter scenario. The most vulnerable vegetation and land use types were wetlands, such as cattail marshes (tulares; ~29 %) and mangroves (~27 %), as well as cultivated grasslands (~6 %). The indirectly affected coastal population could be approximately 5.5 million in these scenarios (~33 %), and the directly affected population could range between 124,000 and 440,000 (~0.72 and 2.55 %, respectively). These results indicate that there will be strong effects in economic, social, and environmental impacts on the Atlantic coast of Mexico in the event of a one- and two-meters sea level rise. This type of work will enable proposal conservation and adaptation strategies for human populations and coastal cities.

A synergistic approach towards understanding flood risks over coastal multi-hazard environments: Appraisal of bivariate flood risk mapping through flood hazard, and socio-economic-cum-physical vulnerability dimensions

The dynamics of flood risk over Coastal Multi-hazard Catchments (CMC) exhibit bizarre characteristics. In these regions, flood hazards are governed by a complex interaction of multiple flood-inducing sources; varying in magnitudes, origin, and direction of propagation. Our conventional understanding of vulnerability may be obscure within these catchments. This can be attributable to the heterogeneous nature of various physical and socio-economic entities. The study proposes a comprehensive framework to quantify bivariate flood risks over a severely flood-prone region in India. The study considers flood hazards, along with vulnerabilities transpiring from (a) physical, (b) socio-economic, and (c) composite (combination of both) groups of indicators. To overcome data scarcity prevalent in CMCs, CHIRPS v2.0, a high-resolution Satellite Precipitation Product, along with other ancillary datasets, are forced to 1D2D coupled MIKE+ hydrodynamic model to simulate flood hazards. A set of 24 indicators are considered within the Shannon Entropy-cum-TOPSIS framework to derive three types of vulnerability. The marginal and compound contributions of hazard and each vulnerability type are represented through a novel concept of bivariate flood risk classifier at the village scale. We notice high and very-high flood hazards over the coastline and floodplains. An equitable influence of socio-economic vulnerability and hazards is reflected, as they cover 41 % of villages together under varied degrees of flood risks. The impacts of hazards are underscored in the presence of physical vulnerability, as the latter contributes to risks in about 72 % of villages. Composite vulnerability prevails its impact over 53 % of villages, dominating its influence on flood risks over hazards. The study delivers vital information to the global flood management community on the prudent selection of indicators, as their influence is markedly noticed on the overall flood risks. The diversified characteristics of flood risk inspire a rationalized implementation of structural and non-structural options in resource-constrained conditions.

Households' vulnerability assessment: empirical evidence from cyclone-prone area of Bangladesh

Despite Bangladesh being vulnerable to cyclones, there is a dearth of research on cyclone vulnerability assessment. Assessing a household's vulnerability is considered a crucial step in avoiding the adverse effects of catastrophe risks. This research was conducted in the cyclone-prone district of Barguna, Bangladesh. This study's purpose is to evaluate this region's vulnerability. A questionnaire survey was conducted using a convenience sample technique. A door-to-door survey of 388 households in two Unions of Patharghata Upazila, Barguna district, was conducted. Forty-three indicators were selected to assess cyclone vulnerability. The results were quantified using an index-based methodology with a standardized scoring method. Where applicable, descriptive statistics have been obtained. In terms of vulnerability indicators, we also utilized the chi-square test to compare Kalmegha and Patharghata Union. When appropriate, the non-parametric Mann-Whitney U test was employed to evaluate the relationship between the Vulnerability Index Score (VIS) and the union. According to the results, the environmental vulnerability (0.53 ± 0.17) and the composite vulnerability index (0.50 ± 0.08) were significantly greater in Kalmegha Union than in Patharghata Union. They faced inequity in government assistance (71%) and humanitarian aid (45%) from national and international organizations. However, 83% of them underwent evacuation practices. 39% were satisfied with the WASH conditions at the cyclone shelter, whereas around half were dissatisfied with the status of the medical facilities. Most of them (96%) rely only on surface water for drinking. National and international organizations should have a comprehensive plan for disaster risk reduction that encompasses all individuals, regardless of race, geography, or ethnicity.

Flood hazard potential reveals global floodplain settlement patterns

Flooding is one of the most common natural hazards, causing disastrous impacts worldwide. Stress-testing the global human-Earth system to understand the sensitivity of floodplains and population exposure to a range of plausible conditions is one strategy to identify where future changes to flooding or exposure might be most critical. This study presents a global analysis of the sensitivity of inundated areas and population exposure to varying flood event magnitudes globally for 1.2 million river reaches. Here we show that topography and drainage areas correlate with flood sensitivities as well as with societal behaviour. We find clear settlement patterns in which floodplains most sensitive to frequent, low magnitude events, reveal evenly distributed exposure across hazard zones, suggesting that people have adapted to this risk. In contrast, floodplains most sensitive to extreme magnitude events have a tendency for populations to be most densely settled in these rarely flooded zones, being in significant danger from potentially increasing hazard magnitudes given climate change.

Plant-Environment Response Pathway Regulation Uncovered by Investigating Non-Typical Legume Symbiosis and Nodulation

Nitrogen is an essential element needed for plants to survive, and legumes are well known to recruit rhizobia to fix atmospheric nitrogen. In this widely studied symbiosis, legumes develop specific structures on the roots to host specific symbionts. This review explores alternate nodule structures and their functions outside of the more widely studied legume-rhizobial symbiosis, as well as discussing other unusual aspects of nodulation. This includes actinorhizal-Frankia, cycad-cyanobacteria, and the non-legume Parasponia andersonii-rhizobia symbioses. Nodules are also not restricted to the roots, either, with examples found within stems and leaves. Recent research has shown that legume-rhizobia nodulation brings a great many other benefits, some direct and some indirect. Rhizobial symbiosis can lead to modifications in other pathways, including the priming of defence responses, and to modulated or enhanced resistance to biotic and abiotic stress. With so many avenues to explore, this review discusses recent discoveries and highlights future directions in the study of nodulation.

Aligning the Global Delta Risk Index with SDG and SFDRR global frameworks to assess risk to socio-ecological systems in river deltas

River deltas globally are highly exposed and vulnerable to natural hazards and are often over-exploited landforms. The Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) was developed to assess multi-hazard risk in river deltas and support decision-making in risk reduction interventions in delta regions. Disasters have significant impacts on the progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, despite the strong interlinkage between disaster risk reduction and sustainable development, global frameworks are still developed in isolation and actions to address them are delegated to different institutions. Greater alignment between frameworks would both simplify monitoring progress towards disaster risk reduction and sustainable development and increase capacity to address data gaps in relation to indicator-based assessments for both processes. This research aims at aligning the GDRI indicators with the SDGs and the Sendai Framework for Disaster and Risk Reduction (SFDRR). While the GDRI has a modular indicator library, the most relevant indicators for this research were selected through a delta-specific impact chain designed in consultation with experts, communities and stakeholders in three delta regions: the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam and the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta in Bangladesh and India. We analyse how effectively the 143 indicators for the GDRI match (or not) the SDG and SFDRR global frameworks. We demonstrate the interconnections of the different drivers of risk to better inform risk management and in turn support delta-level interventions towards improved sustainability and resilience of these Asian mega-deltas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01295-3.

Management of Climate Resilience: Exploring the Potential of Digital Twin Technology, 3D City Modelling, and Early Warning Systems

Cities, and in particular those in coastal low-lying areas, are becoming increasingly susceptible to climate change, the impact of which is worsened by the tendency for population concentration in these areas. Therefore, comprehensive early warning systems are necessary to minimize harm from extreme climate events on communities. Ideally, such a system would allow all stakeholders to acquire accurate up-to-date information and respond effectively. This paper presents a systematic review that highlights the significance, potential, and future directions of 3D city modelling, early warning systems, and digital twins in the creation of technology for building climate resilience through the effective management of smart cities. In total, 68 papers were identified through the PRISMA approach. A total of 37 case studies were included, among which (n = 10) define the framework for a digital twin technology, (n = 14) involve the design of 3D virtual city models, and (n = 13) entail the generation of early warning alerts using the real-time sensor data. This review concludes that the bidirectional flow of data between a digital model and the real physical environment is an emerging concept for enhancing climate resilience. However, the research is primarily in the phase of theoretical concepts and discussion, and numerous research gaps remain regarding the implementation and use of a bidirectional data flow in a true digital twin. Nonetheless, ongoing innovative research projects are exploring the potential of digital twin technology to address the challenges faced by communities in vulnerable areas, which will hopefully lead to practical solutions for enhancing climate resilience in the near future.

Monitoring riverine traffic from space: The untapped potential of remote sensing for measuring human footprint on inland waterways

Mass urbanisation and intensive agricultural development across river deltas have driven ecosystem degradation, impacting deltaic socio-ecological systems and reducing their resilience to climate change. Assessments of the drivers of these changes have so far been focused on human activity on the subaerial delta plains. However, the fragile nature of deltaic ecosystems and the need for biodiversity conservation on a global scale require more accurate quantification of the footprint of anthropogenic activity across delta waterways. To address this need, we investigated the potential of deep learning and high spatiotemporal resolution satellite imagery to identify river vessels, using the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as a focus area. We trained the Faster R-CNN Resnet101 model to detect two classes of objects: (i) vessels and (ii) clusters of vessels, and achieved high detection accuracies for both classes (f-score = 0.84-0.85). The model was subsequently applied to available PlanetScope imagery across 2018-2021; the resultant detections were used to generate monthly, seasonal and annual products mapping the riverine activity, termed here the Human Waterway Footprint (HWF), with which we showed how waterborne activity has increased in the VMD (from approx. 1650 active vessels in 2018 to 2070 in 2021 - a 25 % increase). Whilst HWF values correlated well with population density estimates (R² = 0.59-0.61, p < 0.001), many riverine activity hotspots were located away from population centres and varied spatially across the investigated period, highlighting that more detailed information is needed to fully evaluate the extent, and type, of human footprint on waterways. High spatiotemporal resolution satellite imagery in combination with deep learning methods offers great promise for such monitoring, which can subsequently enable local and regional assessment of environmental impacts of anthropogenic activities on delta ecosystems around the globe.

Human impacts outpace natural processes in the Amazon

Amazonian environments are being degraded by modern industrial and agricultural activities at a pace far above anything previously known, imperiling its vast biodiversity reserves and globally important ecosystem services. The most substantial threats come from regional deforestation, because of export market demands, and global climate change. The Amazon is currently perched to transition rapidly from a largely forested to a nonforested landscape. These changes are happening much too rapidly for Amazonian species, peoples, and ecosystems to respond adaptively. Policies to prevent the worst outcomes are known and must be enacted immediately. We now need political will and leadership to act on this information. To fail the Amazon is to fail the biosphere, and we fail to act at our peril.

Impact of extreme weather events on cropland inundation over Indian subcontinent

Cyclonic storms and extreme precipitation lead to loss of lives and significant damage to land and property, crop productivity, etc. The "Gulab" cyclonic storm formed on the 24^th of September 2021 in the Bay of Bengal (BoB), hit the eastern Indian coasts on the 26^th of September and caused massive damage and water inundation. This study used Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) satellite precipitation data for daily to monthly scale assessments focusing on the "Gulab" cyclonic event. The Otsu's thresholding approach was applied to Sentinel-1 data to map water inundation. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to analyze the precipitation deviation compared to the 20 years mean climatology across India from June to November 2021 on a monthly scale. The water-inundated areas were overlaid on a recent publicly available high-resolution land use land cover (LULC) map to demarcate crop area damage in four eastern Indian states such as Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, and Telangana. The maximum water inundation and crop area damages were observed in Andhra Pradesh (~2700 km²), followed by Telangana (~2040 km²) and Odisha (~1132 km²), and the least in Chhattisgarh (~93.75 km²). This study has potential implications for an emergency response to extreme weather events, such as cyclones, extreme precipitation, and flood. The spatio-temporal data layers and rapid assessment methodology can be helpful to various users such as disaster management authorities, mitigation and response teams, and crop insurance scheme development. The relevant satellite data, products, and cloud-computing facility could operationalize systematic disaster monitoring under the rising threats of extreme weather events in the coming years.

Oil spills enhanced dispersion and transport of microplastics in sea water and sand at coastal beachheads

The coastal zone is being under the threat by accumulation of microplastics (MPs), with much of MPs ending up on the beachhead. Oil spills, which frequently happen in coastal zones due to oil pipe leakage or oil drilling, may affect the behavior of MPs in the beachheads. Herein, sea water and sea sand were collected from three different coastal beachheads including Bohai Sea (BS), East Sea (ES), and South Sea (SS), China, to investigate how the oil spills affect the dispersion and transport of MPs in sea water and sand. The oil spills greatly enhanced the dispersion of MPs in all three sea waters by forming MPs-oil-dispersant agglomerates, which increased the electrostatic repulsion and steric hindrance between MPs particles. Accordingly, the aggregation rates of MPs were reduced from 1.7-8.86 nm min^-1 to 0.39-1.29 nm min^-1. The lowest salinity and highest dissolved organic carbon content in SS sea water favored the highest dispersion of MPs, compared to BS and ES sea water. The improved dispersion of MPs with oil spills enhanced their transport in sea sand with an increase of effluent rates from 0-18.8 % to 5.78-42.2 % for BS and from 30.5-45.2 % to 35.0-60.0 % for SS one. However, the transport of MPs in ES sea sand was lower than 3.62 %, even with oil spills, which was attributed to the strong adsorption of MPs by the rich Fe/Al oxides in ES sea sand through electric attraction. Modeling also showed that oil spills increased the migration rate of 10 mg g^-1 MPs accumulated in the surface 0-1 cm sea sand from 6.50-13.8 cm year^-1 to 8.17-16.7 cm year^-1 after 1500 mm rainfall for 3 years, and the strongest transport of MPs was observed in SS sea sand, with the highest cumulative flux and the longest maximum migration depth as 0.089-0.120 mg/cm² and 50 cm, respectively. These results indicated that the dispersion and transport of MPs can be enhanced by oil spills, but regulated by sea water salinity for MPs dispersion and sea sand Fe/Al oxides for MPs transport, which advanced our understanding of the transport and transformation of MPs in coastal zones.

Identifying Land-Use Related Potential Disaster Risk Drivers in the Ayeyarwady Delta (Myanmar) during the Last 50 Years (1974–2021) Using a Hybrid Ensemble Learning Model

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) dynamics significantly impact deltas, which are among the world’s most valuable but also vulnerable habitats. Non-risk-oriented LULCCs can act as disaster risk drivers by increasing levels of exposure and vulnerability or by reducing capacity. Making thematically detailed long-term LULCC data available is crucial to improving understanding of those dynamics interlinked at different spatiotemporal scales. For the Ayeyarwady Delta, one of the least studied mega-deltas, such comprehensive information is still lacking. This study used 50 Landsat and Sentinel-1A images spanning five decades from 1974 to 2021 in five-year intervals. A hybrid ensemble model consisting of six machine-learning classifiers was employed to generate land-cover maps from the images, achieving accuracies of about 90%. The major identified potential risk-relevant LULCC dynamics include urban growth towards low-lying areas, mangrove deforestation, and the expansion of irrigated agricultural areas and cultivated aquatic surfaces. The novel area-wide LULCC products achieved through the analyses provide a basis to support future risk-sensitive development decisions and can be used for regionally adapted disaster risk management plans and models. Developed with freely available data and open-source software, they hold great potential to increase research activity in the Ayeyarwady Delta and will be shared upon request.

Sustainability of the coastal zone of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta under climatic and anthropogenic stresses

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta is one of the world's largest deltas. It is currently experiencing high rates of relative sea-level rise of about 5 mm/year, reflecting anthropogenic climate change and land subsidence. This is expected to accelerate further through the 21st Century, so there are concerns that the GBM delta will be progressively submerged. In this context, a core question is: can sedimentation on the delta surface maintain its elevation relative to sea level? This research seeks to answer this question by applying a two-dimensional flow and morphological model which is capable of handling dynamic interactions between the river and floodplain systems and simulating floodplain sedimentation under different flow-sediment regimes and anthropogenic interventions. We find that across a range of flood frequencies and adaptation scenarios (including the natural polder-free state), the retained volume of sediment varies between 22% and 50% of the corresponding sediment input. This translates to average rates of sedimentation on the delta surface of 5.5 mm/yr to 7.5 mm/yr. Hence, under present conditions, sedimentation associated with quasi-natural conditions can exceed current rates of relative sea-level rise and potentially create new land mass. These findings highlight that encouraging quasi-natural conditions through the widespread application of active sediment management measures has the potential to promote more sustainable outcomes for the GBM delta. Practical measures to promote include tidal river management, and appropriate combinations of cross-dams, bandal-like structures, and dredging.

Where rivers jump course

Rivers can abruptly shift pathways in rare events called avulsions, which cause devastating floods. The controls on avulsion locations are poorly understood as a result of sparse data on such features. We analyzed nearly 50 years of satellite imagery and documented 113 avulsions across the globe that indicate three distinct controls on avulsion location. Avulsions on fans coincide with valley-confinement change, whereas avulsions on deltas are primarily clustered within the backwater zone, indicating a control by spatial flow deceleration or acceleration during floods. However, 38% of avulsions on deltas occurred upstream of backwater effects. These events occurred in steep, sediment-rich rivers in tropical and desert environments. Our results indicate that avulsion location on deltas is set by the upstream extent of flood-driven erosion, which is typically limited to the backwater zone but can extend far upstream in steep, sediment-laden rivers. Our findings elucidate how avulsion hazards might respond to land use and climate change.

Flood Risk in Urban Areas: Modelling, Management and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Review

The modelling and management of flood risk in urban areas are increasingly recognized as global challenges. The complexity of these issues is a consequence of the existence of several distinct sources of risk, including not only fluvial, tidal and coastal flooding, but also exposure to urban runoff and local drainage failure, and the various management strategies that can be proposed. The high degree of vulnerability that characterizes such areas is expected to increase in the future due to the effects of climate change, the growth of the population living in cities, and urban densification. An increasing awareness of the socio-economic losses and environmental impact of urban flooding is clearly reflected in the recent expansion of the number of studies related to the modelling and management of urban flooding, sometimes within the framework of adaptation to climate change. The goal of the current paper is to provide a general review of the recent advances in flood-risk modelling and management, while also exploring future perspectives in these fields of research.

Dispersion and transport of microplastics in three water-saturated coastal soils

The coastal area is one of the key zones for transport and fate of microplastics (MPs). This study investigated the transport behaviors of different sized MPs in three water-saturated coastal soils, with the aim to explore effects of properties of three different coastal soils on the dispersion and migration of three-sized MPs (0.3, 0.5, and 1 µm). All three-sized MPs had the strongest dispersion in Soil 3 solution, followed by that in Soil 1 solution and then that in Soil 2 solution. The strongest dispersion of MPs in Soil 3 solution was attributed to the lowest ionic strength. Such a high dispersion favored MPs movement in soil solution but readily be sorbed and fixed by rich Fe and Al oxides in Soil 3 solid through strong electrostatic attraction, leading to the lowest transport rate (20.5-41.2%). The high ionic strength in the Soil 1 solution decreased the dispersion of MPs, but the presence of high content of humic acid enhanced the electrostatic repulsion and steric hindrance between MPs and soil particles, resulting in the highest transport ability of MPs in Soil 1 (39.4-72.5%). The large amount of dissolved Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ in Soil 2 solution favored MPs bridged with fulvic acid, resulting in the highest aggregation of MPs and relatively lower transport ability (34.1-49.6%). Large-sized MPs had higher electrostatic repulsion between the particles, thus increasing the dispersion and transport capacity of MPs in soil. Modeling showed the experiment-consistent results that Soil 3 had the lowest MPs transport after 600 mm of heavy rainfall, with the maximum migration distance of 7.50-10.5 cm, which was smaller than that in Soil 2 (8.10-12.0 cm) and that in Soil 1 (9.00-18.3 cm). These results indicated that MPs transport in coastal soil is significant and soil solution and solid composition plays an important role in the dispersion and transport of MPs, respectively. These findings afforded a great basis for the assessment of the fate and risk of MPs in coastal areas.

Ecosystem Service Modelling to Support Nature-Based Flood Water Management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta

Deltas are among the most productive and diverse global ecosystems. However, these regions are highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. Nature-based solutions (Nbs) have been increasingly adopted in many deltas to improve their resilience. Among decision support tools, assessment of ecosystem services (ES) through spatially explicit modelling plays an important role in advocating for Nbs. This study explores the use of the Land Utilisation and Capability Indicator (LUCI) model, a high-resolution model originally developed in temperate hill country regions, to map changes in multiple ecosystem services (ES), along with their synergies and trade-offs, between 2010 and 2018 in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). In so doing, this study contributes to the current knowledge in at least two aspects: high-resolution ES modelling in the VMD, and the combination of ES biophysical and economic values within the VMD to support Nbs implementation. To date, this is the highest resolution (5 by 5 m) ES modelling study ever conducted in the VMD, with ~1500 million elements generated per ES. In the process of trialling implementations of LUCI within the VMD’s unique environmental conditions and data contexts, we identify and suggest potential model enhancements to make the LUCI model more applicable to the VMD as well as other tropical deltaic regions. LUCI generated informative results in much of the VMD for the selected ES (flood mitigation, agriculture/aquaculture productivity, and climate regulation), but challenges arose around its application to a new agro-hydrological regime. To address these challenges, parameterising LUCI and reconceptualising some of the model’s mechanisms to specifically account for the productivity and flood mitigation capability of water-tolerant crops as well as flooding processes of deltaic regions will improve future ES modelling in tropical deltaic areas. The ES maps showed the spatial heterogeneity of ES across the VMD. Next, to at least somewhat account for the economic drivers which need to be considered alongside biophysical valuations for practical implementations of ES maps for nature-based solutions (Nbs) in the upstream VMD, economic values were assigned to different parcels using a benefit transfer approach. The spatially explicit ES economic value maps can inform the design of financing incentives for Nbs. The results and related work can be used to support the establishment of Nbs that ultimately contribute to the security of local farmers’ livelihoods and the sustainability of the VMD.

Global rates and patterns of channel migration in river deltas

River deltas are dynamic systems whose channels can widen, narrow, migrate, avulse, and bifurcate to form new channel networks through time. With hundreds of millions of people living on these globally ubiquitous systems, it is critically important to understand and predict how delta channel networks will evolve over time. Although much work has been done to understand drivers of channel migration on the individual channel scale, a global-scale analysis of the current state of delta morphological change has not been attempted. In this study, we present a methodology for the automatic extraction of channel migration vectors from remotely sensed imagery by combining deep learning and principles from particle image velocimetry (PIV). This methodology is implemented on 48 river delta systems to create a global dataset of decadal-scale delta channel migration. By comparing delta channel migration distributions with a variety of known external forcings, we find that global patterns of channel migration can largely be reconciled with the level of fluvial forcing acting on the delta, sediment flux magnitude, and frequency of flood events. An understanding of modern rates and patterns of channel migration in river deltas is critical for successfully predicting future changes to delta systems and for informing decision makers striving for deltaic resilience.

The suitability of surface waters from small west-flowing rivers for drinking, irrigation, and aquatic life from a global biodiversity hotspot (Western Ghats, India)

The present study provides surface water types and water quality indices (WQI) for 70 large coastal rivers of the Western Ghats (WG). Irrespective of seasons and lithology, concentration of cations (Ca²⁺ > Na⁺ > Mg²⁺ > K⁺) and anions (HCO₃^- > Cl^- >SO₄^2- > NO₃^- > PO₄^3-) follow a typical trend all along the coast. The WG rivers can broadly be classified as calcium-bicarbonate-chloride (Ca²⁺-HCO₃^--Cl^-) type. Pearson correlation analysis of major ions demonstrates natural sources influence on the riverine water composition across the WG region. Gibbs plot suggests water composition of these rivers is the result of the interaction of rock and precipitation. It means that ionic contributions from precipitation and chemical weathering of rock-forming minerals largely determine surface water quality. This biodiversity hotspot is facing high population pressure and anthropogenic activities. Despite it, quantitatively, all the physical parameters and chemical constituents are within the permissible limits of the World Health Organization (WHO) and Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), thus making it suitable for drinking and domestic purposes. About 86% of the surface water samples are found to be suitable for irrigation (KR < 1) in non-monsoon seasons. Rivers near to Goa coast are only found unsuitable (KR > 1) for irrigation exclusively during non-monsoon seasons. From the majority of the calculated indices, it may be inferred that the river waters draining from the WG region are suitable for irrigation. Overall, the calculated WQI for studied rivers showed excellent to good water quality for drinking, agriculture, and aquatic life in monsoon seasons, which are then ranked from good to marginal in non-monsoon seasons.

WebFRIS: An efficient web-based decision support tool to disseminate end-to-end risk information for flood management

The present study describes the development of a web-based flood risk information system 'WebFRIS' for Jagatsinghpur district, a severely flood-prone region in Eastern India. The WebFRIS is designed by using various readily available open-source web tools and packages such as Google Map, PHP, MySQL, and JSON. Special emphasis is directed towards designing the layout and architecture, to be easily accessible by any end-user irrespective of any technical know-how. The WebFRIS illustrates spatial maps of flood hazard, socio-economic vulnerability, and flood risk at the village level for two-time scenarios. While analyzing a set of graphical statistics depicting the changes in flood risk components, a significant increase in high and very-high categories of both flood hazard (~140%) and socio-economically vulnerable villages (~68%) is noticed during Scenario-I. The number of villages facing compound risk (contributed equally by flood hazard and socio-economic vulnerability) nearly doubled in Scenario-I. A spatial analysis of diametric changes in flood risk shows that a large proportion of villages in Balikuda, Ersama, and Tirtol tehsils have undergone radical changes. Following these observations, a set of possible engineering, social, and policy measures are proposed, whose implementation in the near future is expected to reinforce flood management in the study area. The WebFRIS architecture is flexible, easy-to-use; it is expected to provide crucial lessons to the local bodies, town-planners, water professionals, flood experts, and also the citizens, a precious knowledge on flood risk management. The WebFRIS may be considered as a precious cartographic product for environmental management. The proposed web platform is generic, as it can be applied to study other inter-related systems such as environmental protection, land-use planning, coastal habitat restoration, and community resilience building.

Sustainable Management, Conservation, and Restoration of the Amazon River Delta and Amazon-Influenced Guianas Coast: A Review

The Amazon River delta may be currently characterized biophysically as a relatively preserved delta compared to the rampant vulnerability of many of the world’s large deltas. This status of relative preservation is reflected in a number of criteria: The still largely free-flowing nature of many of the rivers and the main stem of the Amazon that feed the delta in sediment, exceptional biodiversity, dominant shoreline accretion, and the absence of anthropogenically-generated subsidence. In this review, we show that these relatively reassuring conditions are progressively being called into question by the effects of dams on fluvial sediment supply to the delta, by increasing demographic, urban, and land development pressures in this still largely underpopulated delta, and by problems of governance that underplay aspects of basin-wide and deltaic environmental deterioration. A major challenge is that of bringing together these contrasting demands that are leading to the emergence of zones of environmental stress that test the resilience of this delta. An integral part of the strategy for the analysis of collective action, management, and conservation is that of considering the Amazon delta in terms of interacting socio-ecological systems. Pressures on the delta will be compounded in the future by decreasing fluvial sediment supply and sea-level rise. Although climate change is projected to generate surplus sediment, the rapid growth of dam constructions upstream of the delta will negatively impact the river’s sediment flux. Conservation and management of the Amazon River system aimed at keeping the delta resilient in the context of sea-level rise and reduction of sediment supply will require clear governance and better planning and anticipation, as well as socio-ecological integration. These are also requirements that will need to be implemented in the 1500 km-long coastal zone of the Guianas countries located west of the Amazon delta and the sediment dynamics and stability of which are largely determined by sediment supply from the Amazon.

Multi-Decadal Deltaic Land-Surface Changes: Gauging the Vulnerability of a Selection of Mediterranean and Black Sea River Deltas

Areal changes over delta surfaces determined by land and water ratios are a promising tool for identifying spatial and temporal changes in deltas that may reveal subsidence and shoreline erosion. Such changes can also provide the basis for more detailed studies on variations in land-cover and vegetation. Changes in land and water areas over a 35-year period (1984–2019) were determined for a selection of ten river deltas in the Mediterranean (Nile, Rhône, Po, Ebro, Moulouya, Ceyhan-Seyhan, Medjerdja, Ombrone, Arno) and the Black Sea (Danube), with a particular focus on aspects of subsidence and shoreline erosion. With the exception of the Ombrone, Arno, and Moulouya, and to lesser extent the Medjerdja, where notable changes dominate in the coastal zone and are tantamount to net erosion, the spatial pattern is largely dominated by delta-plain changes characterized by increasing areas of water. The pattern reflects a mix of shoreline erosion, land-use and land-cover changes, such as the ecological restoration of wetlands, but also increasing subsidence in these deltas, all of which have been exposed to a declining fluvial sediment supply due to human influence. The use of data on land-water ratios needs to be complemented by more detailed studies devoted to each delta in order to clearly disentangle changes related to land-use, vegetation, and subsidence. It is also important to determine how wetlands are interpreted in such ratios, as these important ecological elements are sensitive to ratio variations. It would also be interesting in future studies to examine how these variations play out over time, notably in deltas where changes have been significant over the period 1984–2019.

Assessing Multi-Hazard Vulnerability and Dynamic Coastal Flood Risk in the Mississippi Delta: The Global Delta Risk Index as a Social-Ecological Systems Approach

The tight coupling of the social-ecological system (SES) of the Mississippi Delta calls for balanced natural hazard vulnerability and risk assessments. Most existing assessments have approached these components in isolation. To address this, we apply the Global Delta Risk Index (GDRI) in the Mississippi Delta at high-resolution census tract level. We assess SES spatial patterns of drought, hurricane-force wind, and coastal flood vulnerability and integrate hazard and exposure data for the assessment of coastal flood risk. Moreover, we compare current coastal flood risk to future risk in 2025 based on the modelled effects of flood depth, exposure, and changes in ecosystem area in the context of ongoing efforts under the 2017 Louisiana Coastal Master Plan. Results show that the Master Plan will lead to decreases in risk scores by 2025, but the tracts that are currently the most vulnerable benefit less from risk reduction efforts. Along with our index output, we discuss the need for further advancements in SES methodology and the potential for catastrophic hazard events beyond the model parameters, such as extreme rainfall events and very strong hurricanes. Assessing SES risk components can lead to more targeted policy recommendations, demonstrated by the need for Master Plan projects to consider their unequal spatial effects on vulnerability and risk reduction.

The Development of a Framework for the Integrated Assessment of SDG Trade-Offs in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their corresponding targets are significantly interconnected, with many interactions, synergies, and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. This paper proposes a framework for the Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system in order to analyze such SDG interactions. We focused on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India, within the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta. It is densely populated with 4.4 million people (2011), high levels of poverty, and a strong dependence on rural livelihoods. It is adjacent to the growing megacity of Kolkata. The area also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest––the Sundarbans––hosting the iconic Bengal Tiger. Like all deltaic systems, this area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating across scales. The IAM framework is designed to investigate socio-environmental change under a range of explorative and/or normative scenarios and explore associated policy impacts, considering a broad range of subthematic SDG indicators. The following elements were explicitly considered: (1) agriculture; (2) aquaculture; (3) mangroves; (4) fisheries; and (5) multidimensional poverty. Key questions that can be addressed include the implications of changing monsoon patterns, trade-offs between agriculture and aquaculture, or the future of the Sundarbans’ mangroves under sea-level rise and different management strategies. The novel, high-resolution analysis of SDG interactions allowed by the IAM will provide stakeholders and policy makers the opportunity to prioritize and explore the SDG targets that are most relevant to the SBR and provide a foundation for further integrated analysis.

Water and Climate Governance in Deltas: On the Relevance of Anticipatory, Interactive, and Transformative Modes of Governance

Deltas worldwide have been experiencing pressures and challenges exacerbated by climate change. An explicit focus on deltas is lacking in various bodies of literature, although present in those bodies focusing on the resilience of social-ecological systems. However, overall, literature relevant for addressing water and climate governance in deltas is arguably still fragmented, leading to knowledge gaps and unexplored opportunities with regards to the development of delta-oriented governance strategies. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic literature review focusing on six bodies of literature relevant to delta governance up to and including the year 2019. The results show that scholarly interest in developing transformative pathways has increased sharply over the last few years. We derived seven key governance problems and five governance solutions for resilient deltas. We found that the predominant focus is still on technocratic approaches, with limited recognition of the political dimension and few forward-looking studies. In conclusion, we suggest stimulating the development and application of more anticipatory, transformative, and interactive modes of governance to help steer the transformation to resilient and sustainable deltas. We end with suggestions for systematic, interdisciplinary, and forward-looking empirical-analytical research.

Coastal Dam Inundation Assessment for the Yellow River Delta: Measurements, Analysis and Scenario

Coastal dams along the Yellow River Delta are built to prevent seawater intrusion. However, land subsidence caused by significant oil, gas and brine extraction, as well as sediment compaction, could exacerbate the flooding effects of sea-level rise and storm surge. In order to evaluate the coastal dam vulnerability, we combined unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with small baseline subsets (SBAS) interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) results to generate an accurate coastal dam digital elevation model (DEM) over the next 10, 30 and 80 years. Sea-level simulation was derived from the relative sea-level rise scenarios published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and local long-term tide gauge records. Assuming that the current rate of dam vertical deformation and sea-level rise are linear, we then generated different inundation scenarios by the superposition of DEMs and sea-levels at different periods by way of a bathtub model. We found that the overtopping event would likely occur around Year 2050, and the northern part of the dam would lose its protective capability almost entirely by the end of this century. This article provides an alternative cost-effective method for the detection, extraction and monitoring of coastal artificial infrastructure.