Genomic architecture and prediction of censored time-to-event phenotypes with a Bayesian genome-wide analysis

Polygenic risk scores for cervical HPV infection, neoplasia and cancer show potential for personalised screening: comparison of two methods

The era of precision medicine requires the achievement of accurate risk assessment. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have strong potential for increasing the benefits of nationwide cancer screening programs. The current pool of evidence on the role of a PRS as a risk stratification model in actual practice and implementation is limited. To better understand the impact of possible method-induced variance, we constructed and validated two PRSs for cervical cancer (CC) using the Estonian Biobank female population (691 CC cases and 13,820 controls) and evaluated their utility in predicting incident cervical neoplasia (CIN), cancer, and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection using two methods (LDPred and BayesRR-RC). This study demonstrated that two genetic risk scores were significantly associated with CIN, CC, and HPV infection incidence. Independent of the method, we demonstrated that women with elevated PRS values reached the observed cumulative risk levels of CIN or CC much earlier. Our results indicated that the PRS-based discrimination rules could differ substantially when the PRSs contain similar predictive information. In summary, our analysis indicated that PRSs represent a personalized genetic component that could be an additional tool for cervical cancer risk stratification, and earlier detection of abnormalities provides invaluable information for those at high risk.

Genetic insights into the age-specific biological mechanisms governing human ovarian aging

There is currently little evidence that the genetic basis of human phenotype varies significantly across the lifespan. However, time-to-event phenotypes are understudied and can be thought of as reflecting an underlying hazard, which is unlikely to be constant through life when values take a broad range. Here, we find that 74% of 245 genome-wide significant genetic associations with age at natural menopause (ANM) in the UK Biobank show a form of age-specific effect. Nineteen of these replicated discoveries are identified only by our modeling framework, which determines the time dependency of DNA-variant age-at-onset associations without a significant multiple-testing burden. Across the range of early to late menopause, we find evidence for significantly different underlying biological pathways, changes in the signs of genetic correlations of ANM to health indicators and outcomes, and differences in inferred causal relationships. We find that DNA damage response processes only act to shape ovarian reserve and depletion for women of early ANM. Genetically mediated delays in ANM were associated with increased relative risk of breast cancer and leiomyoma at all ages and with high cholesterol and heart failure for late-ANM women. These findings suggest that a better understanding of the age dependency of genetic risk factor relationships among health indicators and outcomes is achievable through appropriate statistical modeling of large-scale biobank data.

Polygenic Risk Score Predicts Modified Risk in BRCA1 Pathogenic Variant c.4035del and c.5266dup Carriers in Breast Cancer Patients

The aim of this study was to assess the power of the polygenic risk score (PRS) in estimating the overall genetic risk of women carrying germline BRCA1 pathogenic variants (PVs) c.4035del or c.5266dup to develop breast (BC) or ovarian cancer (OC) due to additional genetic variations. In this study, PRSs previously developed from two joint models using summary statistics of age-at-onset (BayesW model) and case-control data (BayesRR-RC model) from a genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) were applied to 406 germline BRCA1 PV (c.4035del or c.5266dup) carriers affected by BC or OC, compared with unaffected individuals. A binomial logistic regression model was used to assess the association of PRS with BC or OC development risk. We observed that the best-fitting BayesW PRS model effectively predicted the individual's BC risk (OR = 1.37; 95% CI = 1.03-1.81, p = 0.02905 with AUC = 0.759). However, none of the applied PRS models was a good predictor of OC risk. The best-fitted PRS model (BayesW) contributed to assessing the risk of developing BC for germline BRCA1 PV (c.4035del or c.5266dup) carriers and may facilitate more precise and timely patient stratification and decision-making to improve the current BC treatment or even prevention strategies.

Accounting for age of onset and family history improves power in genome-wide association studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have revolutionized human genetics, allowing researchers to identify thousands of disease-related genes and possible drug targets. However, case-control status does not account for the fact that not all controls may have lived through their period of risk for the disorder of interest. This can be quantified by examining the age-of-onset distribution and the age of the controls or the age of onset for cases. The age-of-onset distribution may also depend on information such as sex and birth year. In addition, family history is not routinely included in the assessment of control status. Here, we present LT-FH++, an extension of the liability threshold model conditioned on family history (LT-FH), which jointly accounts for age of onset and sex as well as family history. Using simulations, we show that, when family history and the age-of-onset distribution are available, the proposed approach yields statistically significant power gains over LT-FH and large power gains over genome-wide association study by proxy (GWAX). We applied our method to four psychiatric disorders available in the iPSYCH data and to mortality in the UK Biobank and found 20 genome-wide significant associations with LT-FH++, compared to ten for LT-FH and eight for a standard case-control GWAS. As more genetic data with linked electronic health records become available to researchers, we expect methods that account for additional health information, such as LT-FH++, to become even more beneficial.

Significant sparse polygenic risk scores across 813 traits in UK Biobank

We present a systematic assessment of polygenic risk score (PRS) prediction across more than 1,500 traits using genetic and phenotype data in the UK Biobank. We report 813 sparse PRS models with significant (p < 2.5 x 10-5) incremental predictive performance when compared against the covariate-only model that considers age, sex, types of genotyping arrays, and the principal component loadings of genotypes. We report a significant correlation between the number of genetic variants selected in the sparse PRS model and the incremental predictive performance (Spearman's ⍴ = 0.61, p = 2.2 x 10-59 for quantitative traits, ⍴ = 0.21, p = 9.6 x 10-4 for binary traits). The sparse PRS model trained on European individuals showed limited transferability when evaluated on non-European individuals in the UK Biobank. We provide the PRS model weights on the Global Biobank Engine (https://biobankengine.stanford.edu/prs).