Large model structural uncertainty in global projections of urban heat waves

Anthropogenic climate change exacerbates the risk of successive flood-heat extremes: Multi-model global projections based on the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

The successive flood-heat extreme (SFHE) event, which threatens the securities of human health, economy, and building environment, has attracted extensive research attention recently. However, the potential changes in SFHE characteristics and the global population exposure to SFHE under anthropogenic warming remain unclear. Here, we present a global-scale evaluation of the projected changes and uncertainties in SFHE characteristics (frequency, intensity, duration, land exposure) and population exposure under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios, based on the multi-model ensembles (five global water models forced by four global climate models) within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project 2b framework. The results reveal that, relative to the 1970-1999 baseline period, the SFHE frequency is projected to increase nearly globally by the end of this century, especially in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (>20 events/30-year) and the tropical regions (e.g., northern South America, central Africa, and southeastern Asia, >15 events/30-year). The projected higher SFHE frequency is generally accompanied by a larger model uncertainty. By the end of this century, the SFHE land exposure is expected to increase by 12 % (20 %) under RCP2.6 (RCP6.0), and the intervals between flood and heatwave in SFHE tend to decrease by up to 3 days under both RCPs, implying the more intermittent SFHE occurrence under future warming. The SFHE events will lead to the higher population exposure in the Indian Peninsula and central Africa (<10 million person-days) and eastern Asia (<5 million person-days) due to the higher population density and the longer SFHE duration. Partial correlation analysis indicates that the contribution of flood to the SFHE frequency is greater than that of heatwave for most global regions, but the SFHE frequency is dominated by the heatwave in northern North America and northern Asia.

Anthropogenic land use and urbanization alter the dynamics and increase the export of dissolved carbon in an urbanized river system

Greenhouse gas emissions from urban rivers play a crucial role in global carbon (C) cycling, this is tightly linked to dissolved C in rivers but research gaps remain. The effects of urbanization and anthropogenic land-use change on riverine dissolved carbon dynamics were investigated in a temperate river, the River Kelvin in UK. The river was constantly a source of methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere (excess concentration of CH₄ ranged from 13 to 4441 nM, and excess concentration of CO₂ ranged from 2.6 to 230.6 μM), and dissolved C concentrations show significant spatiotemporal variations (p < 0.05), reflecting a variety of proximal sources and controls. For example, the concentration variation of dissolved CH₄ and dissolved CO₂ were heavily controlled by the proximity of coal mine infrastructure in the tributary near the river head (~ 2 km) but were more likely controlled by adjacent landfills in the midstream section of the rivers main channel. Concentration and isotopic evidence revealed an important anthropogenic control on the riverine export of CO₂ and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). However, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) input via groundwater at the catchment scale primarily controlled the dynamics of riverine DIC. Furthermore, the positive relationship between the isotopic composition of DIC and CO₂ (r = 0.79, p < 0.01) indicates the DIC pool was at times also significantly influenced by soil respiratory CO₂. Both DIC and DOC showed a weak but significant correlation with the proportion of urban/suburban land use, suggesting increased dissolved C export resulting from urbanization. This research elucidates a series of potentially key effects anthropogenic activities and land-use practices can have on riverine C dynamics and highlights the need for future consideration of the direct effects urbanization has on riverine C dynamics.

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions

Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.