Rapid evolution of mutation rate and spectrum in response to environmental and population-genetic challenges

Holistic understanding of trimethoprim resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae using an integrative approach of genome-wide association study, resistance reconstruction, and machine learning

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a public health threat worldwide. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) has opened unprecedented opportunities to accelerate AMR mechanism discovery and diagnostics. Here, we present an integrative approach to investigate trimethoprim (TMP) resistance in the key pathogen Streptococcus pneumoniae. We explored a collection of 662 S. pneumoniae genomes by conducting a genome-wide association study (GWAS), followed by functional validation using resistance reconstruction experiments, combined with machine learning (ML) approaches to predict TMP minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC). Our study showed that multiple additive mutations in the folA and sulA loci are responsible for TMP non-susceptibility in S. pneumoniae and can be used as key features to build ML models for digital MIC prediction, reaching an average accuracy within ±1 twofold dilution factor of 86.3%. Our roadmap of in silico analysis-wet-lab validation-diagnostic tool building could be adapted to explore AMR in other combinations of bacteria-antibiotic.

IMPORTANCE

In the age of next-generation sequencing (NGS), while data-driven methods such as genome-wide association study (GWAS) and machine learning (ML) excel at finding patterns, functional validation can be challenging due to the high numbers of candidate variants. We designed an integrative approach combining a GWAS on S. pneumoniae clinical isolates, followed by whole-genome transformation coupled with NGS to functionally characterize a large set of GWAS candidates. Our study validated several phenotypic folA mutations beyond the standard Ile100Leu mutation, and showed that the overexpression of the sulA locus produces trimethoprim (TMP) resistance in Streptococcus pneumoniae. These validated loci, when used to build ML models, were found to be the best inputs for predicting TMP minimal inhibitory concentrations. Integrative approaches can bridge the genotype-phenotype gap by biological insights that can be incorporated in ML models for accurate prediction of drug susceptibility.

Effects of urban-induced mutations on ecology, evolution and health

Increasing evidence suggests that urbanization is associated with higher mutation rates, which can affect the health and evolution of organisms that inhabit cities. Elevated pollution levels in urban areas can induce DNA damage, leading to de novo mutations. Studies on mutations induced by urban pollution are most prevalent in humans and microorganisms, whereas studies of non-human eukaryotes are rare, even though increased mutation rates have the potential to affect organisms and their populations in contemporary time. Our Perspective explores how higher mutation rates in urban environments could impact the fitness, ecology and evolution of populations. Most mutations will be neutral or deleterious, and higher mutation rates associated with elevated pollution in urban populations can increase the risk of cancer in humans and potentially other species. We highlight the potential for urban-driven increased deleterious mutational loads in some organisms, which could lead to a decline in population growth of a wide diversity of organisms. Although beneficial mutations are expected to be rare, we argue that higher mutation rates in urban areas could influence adaptive evolution, especially in organisms with short generation times. Finally, we explore avenues for future research to better understand the effects of urban-induced mutations on the fitness, ecology and evolution of city-dwelling organisms.

Simulating the Effect of Environmental Change on Evolving Populations

This study uses evolutionary simulations to explore the strategies that emerge to enable populations to cope with random environmental changes in situations where lifetime learning approaches are not available to accommodate them. In particular, it investigates how the average magnitude of change per unit time and the persistence of the changes (and hence the resulting autocorrelation of the environmental time series) affect the change tolerances, population diversities, and extinction timescales that emerge. Although it is the change persistence (often discussed in terms of environmental noise color) that has received most attention in the recent literature, other factors, particularly the average change magnitude, interact with this and can be more important drivers of the adaptive strategies that emerge. Moreover, when running simulations, the choice of change representation and normalization can also affect the outcomes. Detailed simulations are presented that are designed to explore all these issues. They also reveal significant dependences on the associated mutation rates and the extent to which they can evolve, and they clarify how evolution often leads populations into strategies with higher risks of extinction. Overall, this study shows how modeling the effect of environmental change requires more care than may have previously been realized.

Ecological and evolutionary mechanisms driving within-patient emergence of antimicrobial resistance

The ecological and evolutionary mechanisms of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) emergence within patients and how these vary across bacterial infections are poorly understood. Increasingly widespread use of pathogen genome sequencing in the clinic enables a deeper understanding of these processes. In this Review, we explore the clinical evidence to support four major mechanisms of within-patient AMR emergence in bacteria: spontaneous resistance mutations; in situ horizontal gene transfer of resistance genes; selection of pre-existing resistance; and immigration of resistant lineages. Within-patient AMR emergence occurs across a wide range of host niches and bacterial species, but the importance of each mechanism varies between bacterial species and infection sites within the body. We identify potential drivers of such differences and discuss how ecological and evolutionary analysis could be embedded within clinical trials of antimicrobials, which are powerful but underused tools for understanding why these mechanisms vary between pathogens, infections and individuals. Ultimately, improving understanding of how host niche, bacterial species and antibiotic mode of action combine to govern the ecological and evolutionary mechanism of AMR emergence in patients will enable more predictive and personalized diagnosis and antimicrobial therapies.

Trade-offs, trade-ups, and high mutational parallelism underlie microbial adaptation during extreme cycles of feast and famine

Microbes are evolutionarily robust organisms capable of rapid adaptation to complex stress, which enables them to colonize harsh environments. In nature, microbes are regularly challenged by starvation, which is a particularly complex stress because resource limitation often co-occurs with changes in pH, osmolarity, and toxin accumulation created by metabolic waste. Often overlooked are the additional complications introduced by eventual resource replenishment, as successful microbes must withstand rapid environmental shifts before swiftly capitalizing on replenished resources to avoid invasion by competing species. To understand how microbes navigate trade-offs between growth and survival, ultimately adapting to thrive in environments with extreme fluctuations, we experimentally evolved 16 Escherichia coli populations for 900 days in repeated feast/famine conditions with cycles of 100-day starvation before resource replenishment. Using longitudinal population-genomic analysis, we found that evolution in response to extreme feast/famine is characterized by narrow adaptive trajectories with high mutational parallelism and notable mutational order. Genetic reconstructions reveal that early mutations result in trade-offs for biofilm and motility but trade-ups for growth and survival, as these mutations conferred positively correlated advantages during both short-term and long-term culture. Our results demonstrate how microbes can navigate the adaptive landscapes of regularly fluctuating conditions and ultimately follow mutational trajectories that confer benefits across diverse environments.

Genomic analysis of Ralstonia pickettii reveals the genetic features for potential pathogenicity and adaptive evolution in drinking water

Ralstonia pickettii, the most critical clinical pathogen of the genus Ralstonia, has been identified as a causative agent of numerous harmful infections. Additionally, Ralstonia pickettii demonstrates adaptability to extreme environmental conditions, such as those found in drinking water. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive genomic analysis to investigate the genomic characteristics related to potential pathogenicity and adaptive evolution in drinking water environments of Ralstonia pickettii. Through phylogenetic analysis and population genetic analysis, we divided Ralstonia pickettii into five Groups, two of which were associated with drinking water environments. The open pan-genome with a large and flexible gene repertoire indicated a high genetic plasticity. Significant differences in functional enrichment were observed between the core- and pan-genome of different groups. Diverse mobile genetic elements (MGEs), extensive genomic rearrangements, and horizontal gene transfer (HGT) events played a crucial role in generating genetic diversity. In drinking water environments, Ralstonia pickettii exhibited strong adaptability, and the acquisition of specific adaptive genes was potentially facilitated by genomic islands (GIs) and HGT. Furthermore, environmental pressures drove the adaptive evolution of Ralstonia pickettii, leading to the accumulation of unique mutations in key genes. These mutations may have a significant impact on various physiological functions, particularly carbon metabolism and energy metabolism. The presence of virulence-related elements associated with macromolecular secretion systems, virulence factors, and antimicrobial resistance indicated the potential pathogenicity of Ralstonia pickettii, making it capable of causing multiple nosocomial infections. This study provides comprehensive insights into the potential pathogenicity and adaptive evolution of Ralstonia pickettii in drinking water environments from a genomic perspective.

High germline mutation rates, but not extreme population outbreaks, influence genetic diversity in a keystone coral predator

Lewontin's paradox, the observation that levels of genetic diversity (π) do not scale linearly with census population size (Nc) variation, is an evolutionary conundrum. The most extreme mismatches between π and Nc are found for highly abundant marine invertebrates. Yet, the influences of new mutations on π relative to extrinsic processes such as Nc fluctuations are unknown. Here, we provide the first germline mutation rate (μ) estimate for a marine invertebrate in corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea stars (Acanthaster cf. solaris). We use high-coverage whole-genome sequencing of 14 parent-offspring trios alongside empirical estimates of Nc in Australia's Great Barrier Reef to jointly examine the determinants of π in populations undergoing extreme Nc fluctuations. The A. cf. solaris mean μ was 9.13 x 10-09 mutations per-site per-generation (95% CI: 6.51 x 10-09 to 1.18 x 10-08), exceeding estimates for other invertebrates and showing greater concordance with vertebrate mutation rates. Lower-than-expected Ne (~70,000-180,000) and low Ne/Nc values (0.0047-0.048) indicated weak influences of population outbreaks on long-term π. Our findings are consistent with elevated μ evolving in response to reduced Ne and generation time length, with important implications for explaining high mutational loads and the determinants of genetic diversity in marine invertebrate taxa.

Contingency, repeatability, and predictability in the evolution of a prokaryotic pangenome

Pangenomes exhibit remarkable variability in many prokaryotic species, much of which is maintained through the processes of horizontal gene transfer and gene loss. Repeated acquisitions of near-identical homologs can easily be observed across pangenomes, leading to the question of whether these parallel events potentiate similar evolutionary trajectories, or whether the remarkably different genetic backgrounds of the recipients mean that postacquisition evolutionary trajectories end up being quite different. In this study, we present a machine learning method that predicts the presence or absence of genes in the Escherichia coli pangenome based on complex patterns of the presence or absence of other accessory genes within a genome. Our analysis leverages the repeated transfer of genes through the E. coli pangenome to observe patterns of repeated evolution following similar events. We find that the presence or absence of a substantial set of genes is highly predictable from other genes alone, indicating that selection potentiates and maintains gene-gene co-occurrence and avoidance relationships deterministically over long-term bacterial evolution and is robust to differences in host evolutionary history. We propose that at least part of the pangenome can be understood as a set of genes with relationships that govern their likely cohabitants, analogous to an ecosystem's set of interacting organisms. Our findings indicate that intragenomic gene fitness effects may be key drivers of prokaryotic evolution, influencing the repeated emergence of complex gene-gene relationships across the pangenome.

The impacts of thermal heterogeneity across microhabitats on post-settlement selection of intertidal mussels

Rapid genetic selection is critical for allowing natural populations to adapt to different thermal environments such as those that occur across intertidal microhabitats with high degrees of thermal heterogeneity. To address the question of how thermal regimes influence selection and adaptation in the intertidal black mussel Mytilisepta virgata, we continuously recorded environmental temperatures in both tidal pools and emergent rock microhabitats and then assessed genetic differentiation, gene expression patterns, RNA editing level, and cardiac performance. Our results showed that the subpopulations in the tidal pool and on emergent rocks had different genetic structures and exhibited different physiological and molecular responses to high-temperature stress. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity across microhabitats is important for driving genetic differentiation and shed light on the importance of post-settlement selection for adaptively modifying the genetic composition and thermal responses of these intertidal mussels.

The divergence of mutation rates and spectra across the Tree of Life

Owing to advances in genome sequencing, genome stability has become one of the most scrutinized cellular traits across the Tree of Life. Despite its centrality to all things biological, the mutation rate (per nucleotide site per generation) ranges over three orders of magnitude among species and several-fold within individual phylogenetic lineages. Within all major organismal groups, mutation rates scale negatively with the effective population size of a species and with the amount of functional DNA in the genome. This relationship is most parsimoniously explained by the drift-barrier hypothesis, which postulates that natural selection typically operates to reduce mutation rates until further improvement is thwarted by the power of random genetic drift. Despite this constraint, the molecular mechanisms underlying DNA replication fidelity and repair are free to wander, provided the performance of the entire system is maintained at the prevailing level. The evolutionary flexibility of the mutation rate bears on the resolution of several prior conundrums in phylogenetic and population-genetic analysis and raises challenges for future applications in these areas.

Shifts in Mutation Bias Promote Mutators by Altering the Distribution of Fitness Effects

AbstractRecent experimental evidence demonstrates that shifts in mutational biases-for example, increases in transversion frequency-can change the distribution of fitness effects of mutations (DFE). In particular, reducing or reversing a prevailing bias can increase the probability that a de novo mutation is beneficial. It has also been shown that mutator bacteria are more likely to emerge if the beneficial mutations they generate have a larger effect size than observed in the wild type. Here, we connect these two results, demonstrating that mutator strains that reduce or reverse a prevailing bias have a positively shifted DFE, which in turn can dramatically increase their emergence probability. Since changes in mutation rate and bias are often coupled through the gain and loss of DNA repair enzymes, our results predict that the invasion of mutator strains will be facilitated by shifts in mutation bias that offer improved access to previously undersampled beneficial mutations.

Revisiting the Role of Genetic Variation in Adaptation

AbstractEvolutionary biologists have thought about the role of genetic variation during adaptation for a very long time-before we understood the organization of the genetic code, the provenance of genetic variation, and how such variation influenced the phenotypes on which natural selection acts. Half a century after the discovery of the structure of DNA and the unraveling of the genetic code, we have a rich understanding of these problems and the means to both delve deeper and widen our perspective across organisms and natural populations. The 2022 Vice Presidential Symposium of the American Society of Naturalists highlighted examples of recent insights into the role of genetic variation in adaptive processes, which are compiled in this special section. The work was conducted in different parts of the world, included theoretical and empirical studies with diverse organisms, and addressed distinct aspects of how genetic variation influences adaptation. In our introductory article to the special section, we discuss some important recent insights about the generation and maintenance of genetic variation, its impacts on phenotype and fitness, its fate in natural populations, and its role in driving adaptation. By placing the special section articles in the broader context of recent developments, we hope that this overview will also serve as a useful introduction to the field.

The raw material of evolution

Estimates of whale mutation rates contribute to understanding evolutionary processes.

Differential impacts of initial treatment status on long-term survival in patients with sarcomas treated in a referral center according to histologic type and anatomic site

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this work was to estimate the magnitude of the differential impacts of initial treatment status relative to the impact of classic clinicopathologic factors on the long-term overall survival (OS) of sarcoma patients in a referral cancer center.

METHODS

From the institutional database, we identified 2185 patients who presented to the institutional multidisciplinary team (MDT) prior to (N = 717, 32.8%) or after (N = 1468, 67.2%) initial treatment, with a first diagnosis of sarcoma from January 1999 to December 2018. Descriptive, univariate and multivariate analyses were applied to identify the factors related to OS. By performing propensity score matching of each completely MDT-treated patient to a referral patient with similar characteristics, the differential impacts of the identified risk and prognostic factors on OS in the 2 groups were estimated by the Kaplan‒Meier survival curves, log-rank test and Cox proportional hazard regression; the results were compared using calibrated nomograph models and forest plots.

RESULTS

Adjusted for the clinicopathologic factors of patient age, sex, primary site, tumor grade, tumor size, resection margin and histology, hazard ratio-based modeling analysis indicated that the initial treatment status was an independent but intermediate prognostic factor associated with long-term OS. The major impacts of the initial and comprehensive MDT-based management on significant improvement of the 20-year OS of sarcomas were reflected in the subgroup of patients with stromal, undifferentiated pleomorphic, fibromatous, fibroepithelial, or synovial neoplasms and tumors in the breast, gastrointestinal tract, or soft tissues of limb and trunk.

CONCLUSIONS

This retrospective study supports early referral of patients with soft tissue masses of unknown identity to a specialized MDT before biopsy and initial resection to reduce the risk of death but highlights an unmet need for a greater understanding of some of the most difficult sarcoma subtypes and subsites and their management.

Case Studies in the Assessment of Microbial Fitness: Seemingly Subtle Changes Can Have Major Effects on Phenotypic Outcomes

Following the completion of an adaptive evolution experiment, fitness evaluations are routinely conducted to assess the magnitude of adaptation. In doing so, proper consideration should be given when determining the appropriate methods as trade-offs may exist between accuracy and throughput. Here, we present three instances in which small changes in the framework or execution of fitness evaluations significantly impacted the outcomes. The first case illustrates that discrepancies in fitness conclusions can arise depending on the approach to evaluating fitness, the culture vessel used, and the sampling method. The second case reveals that variations in environmental conditions can occur associated with culture vessel material. Specifically, these subtle changes can greatly affect microbial physiology leading to changes in the culture pH and distorting fitness measurements. Finally, the last case reports that heterogeneity in CFU formation time can result in inaccurate fitness conclusions. Based on each case, considerations and recommendations are presented for future adaptive evolution experiments.

Mutation bias and the predictability of evolution

Predicting evolutionary outcomes is an important research goal in a diversity of contexts. The focus of evolutionary forecasting is usually on adaptive processes, and efforts to improve prediction typically focus on selection. However, adaptive processes often rely on new mutations, which can be strongly influenced by predictable biases in mutation. Here, we provide an overview of existing theory and evidence for such mutation-biased adaptation and consider the implications of these results for the problem of prediction, in regard to topics such as the evolution of infectious diseases, resistance to biochemical agents, as well as cancer and other kinds of somatic evolution. We argue that empirical knowledge of mutational biases is likely to improve in the near future, and that this knowledge is readily applicable to the challenges of short-term prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.