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Geng T, Cai W, Jia F, Wu L. Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming. Nat Commun 2024; 15:5810. [PMID: 38987541 PMCID: PMC11237138 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2024] [Accepted: 07/02/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Under transient greenhouse warming, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is projected to increase pre-2100, accompanied by an easier establishment of atmospheric convection in the equatorial eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature (SST) warms faster than surrounding regions. After 2100, how ENSO variability may change remains unknown. Here we find that under a high emission scenario, ENSO variability post-2100 reverses from the initial increase to an amplitude far smaller than that of the 20th century. The fast eastern warming persists and shrinks the equatorial Pacific non-convective area, such that establishing convection in the non-convective area, as during an El Niño, requires smaller convective anomaly, inducing weaker wind anomalies leading to reduced ENSO SST variability. The nonlinear ENSO response is thus a symptom of the persistent El Niño-like warming pattern. Therefore, the oscillatory ENSO impact could be replaced by that from the permanent El Niño-like mean condition with cumulative influences on affected regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Geng
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
| | - Wenju Cai
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science & College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China.
- State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.
| | - Fan Jia
- Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
| | - Lixin Wu
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
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Chen H, Jin Y, Liu Z, Sun D, Chen X, McPhaden MJ, Capotondi A, Lin X. Central-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming. Nat Commun 2024; 15:4370. [PMID: 38778056 PMCID: PMC11111461 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-48804-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2024] [Accepted: 05/14/2024] [Indexed: 05/25/2024] Open
Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific, whose nature nevertheless may change significantly in a warming climate. Here, we show that the predictability of ENSO may decrease in the future. Across the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we find a robust decrease of the persistence and predictability for the Central Pacific (CP) ENSO under global warming, notably in passing through the boreal spring. The strength of spring predictability barrier will be increased by 25% in the future. The reduced predictability of CP ENSO is caused by the faster warming over surface ocean in tropical Pacific and, in turn, the enhanced thermodynamical damping rate on CP ENSO in response to global warming. In contrast, the predictability of Eastern Pacific ENSO will not change. Our results suggest that future greenhouse warming will make the prediction of CP ENSO more challenging, with far-reaching implications on future climate predictions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui Chen
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
| | - Yishuai Jin
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
| | - Zhengyu Liu
- Atmospheric Science Program, Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA.
- School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China.
| | | | - Xianyao Chen
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Michael J McPhaden
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Xiaopei Lin
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
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Li M, Xu Y, Sun M, Li J, Zhou X, Chen Z, Zhang K. Impacts of Strong ENSO Events on Fish Communities in an Overexploited Ecosystem in the South China Sea. BIOLOGY 2023; 12:946. [PMID: 37508376 PMCID: PMC10376808 DOI: 10.3390/biology12070946] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Revised: 06/26/2023] [Accepted: 06/28/2023] [Indexed: 07/30/2023]
Abstract
To better understand how fish communities respond to environmental changes under extreme climate events, we examine changes in fish communities in Beibu Gulf during strong El Niño and La Niña events. Strong La Niña and El Niño events affect the composition, abundance, and distribution of fish communities in Beibu Gulf. Fish community distribution and composition change before and after La Niña and El Niño events, and dominant species within them change with stable fishing intensity. The abundance and distribution of small pelagic fish such as Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) and Japanese scad (Decapterus maruadsi) are the most affected. Using a generalized additive model (GAM), we explore relationships between the abundance of T. japonicus and D. maruadsi and a suite of environmental variables. The GAM results revealed that sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature best explain changes in catch per unit effort of these two species during a La Niña event; depth, sea surface temperature, and mixed layer depth during an El Niño event. The results obtained in this study will offer support for implementing more-accurate, scientific fisheries management measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Miao Li
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
- College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Youwei Xu
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
| | - Mingshuai Sun
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
| | - Jiajun Li
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
| | - Xingxing Zhou
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
| | - Zuozhi Chen
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
| | - Kui Zhang
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China
- Key Laboratory for Sustainable Utilization of Open-Sea Fishery, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Guangzhou 510300, China
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Geng T, Jia F, Cai W, Wu L, Gan B, Jing Z, Li S, McPhaden MJ. Increased occurrences of consecutive La Niña events under global warming. Nature 2023; 619:774-781. [PMID: 37495880 PMCID: PMC10371868 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06236-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2022] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 07/28/2023]
Abstract
Most El Niño events occur sporadically and peak in a single winter1-3, whereas La Niña tends to develop after an El Niño and last for two years or longer4-7. Relative to single-year La Niña, consecutive La Niña features meridionally broader easterly winds and hence a slower heat recharge of the equatorial Pacific6,7, enabling the cold anomalies to persist, exerting prolonged impacts on global climate, ecosystems and agriculture8-13. Future changes to multi-year-long La Niña events remain unknown. Here, using climate models under future greenhouse-gas forcings14, we find an increased frequency of consecutive La Niña ranging from 19 ± 11% in a low-emission scenario to 33 ± 13% in a high-emission scenario, supported by an inter-model consensus stronger in higher-emission scenarios. Under greenhouse warming, a mean-state warming maximum in the subtropical northeastern Pacific enhances the regional thermodynamic response to perturbations, generating anomalous easterlies that are further northward than in the twentieth century in response to El Niño warm anomalies. The sensitivity of the northward-broadened anomaly pattern is further increased by a warming maximum in the equatorial eastern Pacific. The slower heat recharge associated with the northward-broadened easterly anomalies facilitates the cold anomalies of the first-year La Niña to persist into a second-year La Niña. Thus, climate extremes as seen during historical consecutive La Niña episodes probably occur more frequently in the twenty-first century.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tao Geng
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Fan Jia
- CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
| | - Wenju Cai
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
- Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
- State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an, China.
| | - Lixin Wu
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Bolan Gan
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Zhao Jing
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
| | - Shujun Li
- Frontier Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System (FDOMES) and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
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