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Ben-Yami M, Morr A, Bathiany S, Boers N. Uncertainties too large to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadl4841. [PMID: 39093979 PMCID: PMC11296338 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl4841] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024]
Abstract
One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping times. Here, we argue that the involved uncertainties are too high to robustly predict tipping times. We raise concerns regarding (i) the modeling assumptions underlying any extrapolation of historical results into the future, (ii) the representativeness of individual Earth system component time series, and (iii) the impact of uncertainties and preprocessing of used observational datasets, with focus on nonstationary observational coverage and gap filling. We explore these uncertainties in general and specifically for the example of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We argue that even under the assumption that a given Earth system component has an approaching tipping point, the uncertainties are too large to reliably estimate tipping times by extrapolating historical information.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maya Ben-Yami
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Andreas Morr
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Sebastian Bathiany
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas Boers
- Earth System Modelling, School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Mathematics and Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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2
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Möller T, Högner AE, Schleussner CF, Bien S, Kitzmann NH, Lamboll RD, Rogelj J, Donges JF, Rockström J, Wunderling N. Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks. Nat Commun 2024; 15:6192. [PMID: 39090087 PMCID: PMC11294534 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49863-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/22/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024] Open
Abstract
Under current emission trajectories, temporarily overshooting the Paris global warming limit of 1.5 °C is a distinct possibility. Permanently exceeding this limit would substantially increase the probability of triggering climate tipping elements. Here, we investigate the tipping risks associated with several policy-relevant future emission scenarios, using a stylised Earth system model of four interconnected climate tipping elements. We show that following current policies this century would commit to a 45% tipping risk by 2300 (median, 10-90% range: 23-71%), even if temperatures are brought back to below 1.5 °C. We find that tipping risk by 2300 increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates for peak warming above 2.0 °C. Achieving and maintaining at least net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is paramount to minimise tipping risk in the long term. Our results underscore that stringent emission reductions in the current decade are critical for planetary stability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tessa Möller
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany.
| | - Annika Ernest Högner
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany
- Geography Department & IRI THESys, Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Samuel Bien
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Niklas H Kitzmann
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
| | - Robin D Lamboll
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Joeri Rogelj
- Energy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
- Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Jonathan F Donges
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
| | - Johan Rockström
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
- Institute of Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
- Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Nico Wunderling
- Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
- Center for Critical Computational Studies (C³S), Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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3
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Gou R, Lohmann G, Wu L. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Decline: Tipping Small Scales under Global Warming. PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS 2024; 133:034201. [PMID: 39094135 DOI: 10.1103/physrevlett.133.034201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/19/2023] [Accepted: 06/10/2024] [Indexed: 08/04/2024]
Abstract
The Atlantic circulation is a key component of the global ocean conveyor that transports heat and nutrients worldwide. Its likely weakening due to global warming has implications for climate and ecology. However, the expected changes remain largely uncertain as low-resolution climate models currently in use do not resolve small scales. Although the large-scale circulation tends to weaken uniformly in both the low-resolution and our high-resolution climate model version, we find that the small-scale circulation in the North Atlantic changes abruptly under global warming and exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Furthermore, the future Atlantic Ocean circulation in the high-resolution model version expands in conjunction with a sea ice retreat and strengthening toward the Arctic. Finally, the cutting-edge climate model indicates sensitive shifts in the eddies and circulation on regional scales for future warming and thus provides a benchmark for next-generation climate models that can get rid of parametrizations of unresolved scales.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Lixin Wu
- Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
- Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China
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4
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Lehnertz K. Time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2024; 34:072102. [PMID: 38985967 DOI: 10.1063/5.0214733] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2024] [Accepted: 06/21/2024] [Indexed: 07/12/2024]
Abstract
Real-world non-autonomous systems are open, out-of-equilibrium systems that evolve in and are driven by temporally varying environments. Such systems can show multiple timescale and transient dynamics together with transitions to very different and, at times, even disastrous dynamical regimes. Since such critical transitions disrupt the systems' intended or desired functionality, it is crucial to understand the underlying mechanisms, to identify precursors of such transitions, and to reliably detect them in time series of suitable system observables to enable forecasts. This review critically assesses the various steps of investigation involved in time-series-analysis-based detection of critical transitions in real-world non-autonomous systems: from the data recording to evaluating the reliability of offline and online detections. It will highlight pros and cons to stimulate further developments, which would be necessary to advance understanding and forecasting nonlinear behavior such as critical transitions in complex systems.
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5
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Scheffer M, Bockting CL, Borsboom D, Cools R, Delecroix C, Hartmann JA, Kendler KS, van de Leemput I, van der Maas HLJ, van Nes E, Mattson M, McGorry PD, Nelson B. A Dynamical Systems View of Psychiatric Disorders-Practical Implications: A Review. JAMA Psychiatry 2024; 81:624-630. [PMID: 38568618 DOI: 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2024.0228] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2024]
Abstract
Importance Dynamical systems theory is widely used to explain tipping points, cycles, and chaos in complex systems ranging from the climate to ecosystems. It has been suggested that the same theory may be used to explain the nature and dynamics of psychiatric disorders, which may come and go with symptoms changing over a lifetime. Here we review evidence for the practical applicability of this theory and its quantitative tools in psychiatry. Observations Emerging results suggest that time series of mood and behavior may be used to monitor the resilience of patients using the same generic dynamical indicators that are now employed globally to monitor the risks of collapse of complex systems, such as tropical rainforest and tipping elements of the climate system. Other dynamical systems tools used in ecology and climate science open ways to infer personalized webs of causality for patients that may be used to identify targets for intervention. Meanwhile, experiences in ecological restoration help make sense of the occasional long-term success of short interventions. Conclusions and Relevance Those observations, while promising, evoke follow-up questions on how best to collect dynamic data, infer informative timescales, construct mechanistic models, and measure the effect of interventions on resilience. Done well, monitoring resilience to inform well-timed interventions may be integrated into approaches that give patients an active role in the lifelong challenge of managing their resilience and knowing when to seek professional help.
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Albano PG, Schultz L, Wessely J, Taviani M, Dullinger S, Danise S. The dawn of the tropical Atlantic invasion into the Mediterranean Sea. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2320687121. [PMID: 38557179 PMCID: PMC11009679 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2320687121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2023] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
The Mediterranean Sea is a marine biodiversity hotspot already affected by climate-driven biodiversity collapses. Its highly endemic fauna is at further risk if global warming triggers an invasion of tropical Atlantic species. Here, we combine modern species occurrences with a unique paleorecord from the Last Interglacial (135 to 116 ka), a conservative analog of future climate, to model the future distribution of an exemplary subset of tropical West African mollusks, currently separated from the Mediterranean by cold upwelling off north-west Africa. We show that, already under an intermediate climate scenario (RCP 4.5) by 2050, climatic connectivity along north-west Africa may allow tropical species to colonize a by then largely environmentally suitable Mediterranean. The worst-case scenario RCP 8.5 leads to a fully tropicalized Mediterranean by 2100. The tropical Atlantic invasion will add to the ongoing Indo-Pacific invasion through the Suez Canal, irreversibly transforming the entire Mediterranean into a novel ecosystem unprecedented in human history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Paolo G. Albano
- Department of Marine Animal Conservation and Public Engagement, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples80121, Italy
| | - Lotta Schultz
- Department of Marine Animal Conservation and Public Engagement, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples80121, Italy
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Bergen, Bergen5006, Norway
| | - Johannes Wessely
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna1030, Austria
| | - Marco Taviani
- Institute of Marine Sciences, National Research Council, Bologna40129, Italy
- Department of Integrative Marine Ecology, Stazione Zoologica Anton Dohrn, Naples80121, Italy
| | - Stefan Dullinger
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research, University of Vienna, Vienna1030, Austria
| | - Silvia Danise
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Florence, Florence50121, Italy
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7
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Lohmann J, Dijkstra HA, Jochum M, Lucarini V, Ditlevsen PD. Multistability and intermediate tipping of the Atlantic Ocean circulation. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadi4253. [PMID: 38517955 PMCID: PMC10959405 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi4253] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024]
Abstract
Tipping points (TP) in climate subsystems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other subsystems, additional feedbacks, and spatial heterogeneity may promote further small-amplitude, abrupt reorganizations of geophysical flows at forcing levels lower than the critical threshold. Using a primitive-equation ocean model, we simulate a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to increasing glacial melt. Considerably before the collapse, various abrupt, qualitative changes in AMOC variability occur. These intermediate tipping points (ITP) are transitions between multiple stable circulation states. Using 2.75 million years of model simulations, we uncover a very rugged stability landscape featuring parameter regions of up to nine coexisting stable states. The path to an AMOC collapse via a sequence of ITPs depends on the rate of change of the meltwater input. This challenges our ability to predict and define safe limits for TPs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johannes Lohmann
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Henk A Dijkstra
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
| | - Markus Jochum
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Valerio Lucarini
- Centre for the Mathematics of Planet Earth, University of Reading, Reading, UK
| | - Peter D Ditlevsen
- Physics of Ice, Climate and Earth, Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark
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8
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Sanita Lima M, Lubbe FC, Dias dos Santos SH, Saruhashi S, Maglov JM, Moreira do Nascimento J, Coulson SZ. Ecology, ethology, and evolution in the Anthropocene. Biol Open 2024; 13:bio060175. [PMID: 38427427 PMCID: PMC10924215 DOI: 10.1242/bio.060175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/03/2024] Open
Abstract
The 53rd Ontario Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution Colloquium (OE3C 2023) took place at Western University (London, Canada) on 25-27 May 2023, attracting 160 participants. This Meeting Review aims not only to recapitulate what was discussed during the event, but also to provide a brief synthesis of how biologists can move forward. The event was organised and run by graduate students and postdoctoral researchers from the Department of Biology at Western University. With three international keynote speakers, seventy talks, and fifty poster presentations, the OE3C 2023 spanned a wide range of contemporary research in Ecology, Ethology, and Evolution ("the 3 E's"). The colloquium theme was "Surviving the Anthropocene: future steps for the 3 E's under pressing planetary issues", which was complemented by illustrations depicting the fauna and flora of the "Canadian Anthropocene". Participants discussed what biologists and researchers can do regarding future climate and environmental catastrophes. The meeting culminated in a panel discussion comprising three climate change specialists who examined topics such as the Anthropocene and the Great acceleration, the living planet index, and carbon bombs. Although not exhaustive, these topics served as a starting point for the necessary discussions about how biologists can contribute to the fight for the survival of life on Earth.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Frederick Curtis Lubbe
- Institute of Botany of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i, Dukelská 135, 37901, Třeboň, Czech Republic
| | | | - Stefane Saruhashi
- Department of Biology, Western University, London, Ontario N6A 5B7, Canada
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9
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Charlwood JD, Kampango A, Omari M, Okumu F. Simple techniques for a complex problem: Sampling malaria vectors in Africa. Acta Trop 2024; 251:107104. [PMID: 38185187 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.107104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/10/2023] [Revised: 12/19/2023] [Accepted: 12/19/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024]
Abstract
Disease surveillance, including entomological surveillance, serves as the basis for all vector control program activities. How to do this in the most ecologically sensible way, so that the most suitable, naturalistic method, of control for that population can be identified, should be a priority. Here we describe a set of techniques, whose only energy requirement is a torch (flashlight), that can be used to collect both endo and exophagic and endo and exophilic malaria vectors. The data obtained over a number of years from an individual sentinel house in a village in Mozambique and from a village in Cambodia using these kinds of collection techniques, is presented.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jacques Derek Charlwood
- Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Rua da Junqueira 100, Lisboa, Portugal.
| | - Ayubo Kampango
- Instituto Nacional de Saúde, Vila de Marracuene, EN1 Parcela N 3943, Maputo, Mozambique
| | - Mohamed Omari
- Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences Department, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania
| | - Fredros Okumu
- Environmental Health and Ecological Sciences Department, Ifakara Health Institute, P.O. Box 53, Ifakara, Tanzania; School of Biodiversity, One Health, and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom
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10
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Shojania KG. Is targeting healthcare's carbon footprint really the best we can do to help address the climate crisis? BMJ Qual Saf 2024; 33:205-208. [PMID: 37666662 DOI: 10.1136/bmjqs-2023-016312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/31/2023] [Accepted: 08/23/2023] [Indexed: 09/06/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Kaveh G Shojania
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
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11
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van Westen RM, Kliphuis M, Dijkstra HA. Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course. SCIENCE ADVANCES 2024; 10:eadk1189. [PMID: 38335283 PMCID: PMC10857529 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adk1189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2024] [Indexed: 02/12/2024]
Abstract
One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse because of the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in complex global climate models by strong freshwater forcing, the processes of an AMOC tipping event have so far not been investigated. Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and observable early warning signal of AMOC tipping: the minimum of the AMOC-induced freshwater transport at the southern boundary of the Atlantic. Reanalysis products indicate that the present-day AMOC is on route to tipping. The early warning signal is a useful alternative to classical statistical ones, which, when applied to our simulated tipping event, turn out to be sensitive to the analyzed time interval before tipping.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Michael Kliphuis
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, Utrecht 3584 CC, Netherlands
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12
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Greenland's glaciers are retreating everywhere and all at once. Nature 2024:10.1038/d41586-023-04108-w. [PMID: 38233546 DOI: 10.1038/d41586-023-04108-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
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13
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Giammarese A, Brown J, Malik N. Reconfiguration of Amazon's connectivity in the climate system. CHAOS (WOODBURY, N.Y.) 2024; 34:013134. [PMID: 38260937 DOI: 10.1063/5.0165861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 01/24/2024]
Abstract
With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that the Amazon connectivity patterns have undergone a fundamental shift in the 21st century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon, we see the changing properties of the Amazon are noticeable in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Giammarese
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York 14623, USA
| | - Jacob Brown
- Department of Mathematics, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06269, USA
| | - Nishant Malik
- School of Mathematics and Statistics, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, New York 14623, USA
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14
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Greene CA, Gardner AS, Wood M, Cuzzone JK. Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022. Nature 2024; 625:523-528. [PMID: 38233618 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06863-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/09/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024]
Abstract
Nearly every glacier in Greenland has thinned or retreated over the past few decades1-4, leading to glacier acceleration, increased rates of sea-level rise and climate impacts around the globe5-9. To understand how calving-front retreat has affected the ice-mass balance of Greenland, we combine 236,328 manually derived and AI-derived observations of glacier terminus positions collected from 1985 to 2022 and generate a 120-m-resolution mask defining the ice-sheet extent every month for nearly four decades. Here we show that, since 1985, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has lost 5,091 ± 72 km2 of area, corresponding to 1,034 ± 120 Gt of ice lost to retreat. Our results indicate that, by neglecting calving-front retreat, current consensus estimates of ice-sheet mass balance4,9 have underestimated recent mass loss from Greenland by as much as 20%. The mass loss we report has had minimal direct impact on global sea level but is sufficient to affect ocean circulation and the distribution of heat energy around the globe10-12. On seasonal timescales, Greenland loses 193 ± 25 km2 (63 ± 6 Gt) of ice to retreat each year from a maximum extent in May to a minimum between September and October. We find that multidecadal retreat is highly correlated with the magnitude of seasonal advance and retreat of each glacier, meaning that terminus-position variability on seasonal timescales can serve as an indicator of glacier sensitivity to longer-term climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chad A Greene
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA.
| | - Alex S Gardner
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | - Michael Wood
- Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, San José State University, San José, CA, USA
| | - Joshua K Cuzzone
- Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
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15
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Kaasik A, Kont R, Lõhmus A. Modeling forest landscape futures: Full scale simulation of realistic socioeconomic scenarios in Estonia. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0294650. [PMID: 37976263 PMCID: PMC10655990 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294650] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/03/2023] [Accepted: 11/05/2023] [Indexed: 11/19/2023] Open
Abstract
For political and administrative governance of land-use decisions, high-resolution and reliable spatial models are required over large areas and for various time horizons. We present a process-centered simulation model 'NextStand' (a forest landscape model, FLM) and its R-script, which predicts regional forest characteristics at a forest stand resolution. The model uses whole area stand data and is optimized for realistic iterative timber harvesting decisions, based on stand compositions (developing over time) and locations. We used the model for simulating spatial predictions of the Estonian forests in North Europe (2.3 Mha, about 2 M stands); the decisions were parameterized by land ownership, protection regimes, and rules of clear-cut harvesting. We illustrate the model application as a potential broad-scale Decision Support Tool by predicting how the forest age composition, placement of clear-cut areas, and connectivity of old stands will develop until the year 2050 under future scenarios. The country-scale outputs had a generally low within-scenario variance, which enabled to estimate some main land-use effects and uncertainties at small computing efforts. In forestry terms, we show that a continuation of recent intensive forest management trends will produce a decline of the national timber supplies in Estonia, which greatly varies among ownership types. In a conservation perspective, the current level of 13% forest area strictly protected can maintain an overall area of old forests by 2050, but their isolation is a problem for biodiversity conservation. The behavior of low-intensity forest management units (owners) and strict governance of clear-cut harvesting rules emerged as key questions for regional forest sustainability. Our study confirms that high-resolution modeling of future spatial composition of forest land is feasible when one can (i) delineate predictable spatial units of transformation (including management) and (ii) capture their variability of temporal change with simple ecological and socioeconomic (including human decision-making) variables.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ants Kaasik
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, J. Liivi, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Raido Kont
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, J. Liivi, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Asko Lõhmus
- Institute of Ecology and Earth Sciences, University of Tartu, J. Liivi, Tartu, Estonia
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