Spatial and temporal dynamics of West Nile virus between Africa and Europe

The historical ecological background of West Nile virus in Portugal indicates One Health opportunities

West Nile (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus with an expanding geographical range and epidemic activity in Europe. Not having yet experienced a human-associated epidemic, Portugal remains an outlier in the Mediterranean basin. In this study, we apply ecological niche modelling informed by WNV historical evidence and a multitude of environmental variables from across Portugal. We identify that ecological backgrounds compatible with WNV historical circulation are mostly restricted to the south, characterized by a warmer and drier climate, high avian diversity, specific avian species and land types. We estimate WNV ecological suitability across the country, identifying overlaps with the distributions of the three relevant hosts (humans, birds, equines) for public and animal health. From this, we propose a category-based spatial framework providing first of a kind valuable insights for WNV surveillance in Portugal under the One Health nexus. We forecast that near future climate trends alone will contribute to pushing adequate WNV ecological suitability northwards, towards regions with higher human density. This unique perspective on the past, present and future ecology of WNV addresses existing national knowledge gaps, enhances our understanding of the evolving emergence of WNV, and offers opportunities to prepare and respond to the first human-associated epidemic in Portugal.

The key role of Spain in the traffic of West Nile virus lineage 1 strains between Europe and Africa

BACKGROUND

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a zoonotic arbovirus worldwide spread. Seasonal WNV outbreaks occur in the Mediterranean basin since the late 1990's with ever-increasing incidence. In Southern Spain WNV is endemic, as disease foci - caused by WNV lineage 1 (WNV-L1) strains - occur every year. On the contrary, WNV-L2 is the dominant lineage in Europe, so most European WNV sequences available belong to this lineage, WNV-L1 sequences being still scarce.

METHODS

To fill this gap, this study reports the genetic characterisation of 27 newly described WNV-L1 strains, involved in outbreaks affecting wild birds and horses during the last decade in South-Western Spain.

RESULTS

All strains except one belong to the Western Mediterranean-1 sub-cluster (WMed-1), related phylogenetically to Italian, French, Portuguese, Moroccan and, remarkably, Senegalese strains. This sub-cluster persisted, spread and evolved into three distinguishable WMed-1 phylogenetic groups that co-circulated, notably, in the same province (Cádiz). They displayed different behaviours: from long-term persistence and rapid spread to neighbouring regions within Spain, to long-distance spread to different countries, including transcontinental spread to Africa. Among the different introductions of WNV in Spain revealed in this study, some of them succeeded to get established, some extinguished from the territory shortly afterwards. Furthermore, Spain's southernmost province, Cádiz, constitutes a hotspot for virus incursion.

CONCLUSION

Southern Spain seems a likely scenario for emergence of exotic pathogens of African origin. Therefore, circulation of diverse WNV-L1 variants in Spain prompts for an extensive surveillance under a One Health approach.

Genomic epidemiology of West Nile virus in Europe

West Nile virus is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses, with unique transmission dynamics in various parts of the world. Genomic surveillance has provided important insights in the global patterns of West Nile virus emergence and spread. In Europe, multiple West Nile virus lineages have been isolated, with lineage 1a and 2 being the main lineages responsible for human infections. In contrast to North America, where a single introduction of lineage 1a resulted in the virus establishing itself in a new continent, at least 13 introductions of lineages 1a and 2 have occurred into Europe, which is likely a vast underestimation of the true number of introductions. Historically, lineage 1a was the main lineage circulating in Europe, but since the emergence of lineage 2 in the early 2000s, the latter has become the predominant lineage. This shift in West Nile virus lineage prevalence has been broadly linked to the expansion of the virus into northerly temperate regions, where autochthonous cases in animals and humans have been reported in Germany and The Netherlands. Here, we discuss how genomic analysis has increased our understanding of the epidemiology of West Nile virus in Europe, and we present a global Nextstrain build consisting of publicly available West Nile virus genomes (https://nextstrain.org/community/grubaughlab/WNV-Global). Our results elucidate recent insights in West Nile virus lineage dynamics in Europe, and discuss how expanded programs can fill current genomic surveillance gaps.

Serologic and Genomic Investigation of West Nile Virus in Kosovo

The prevalence of West Nile virus (WNV) is increasing across Europe, with cases emerging in previously unaffected countries. Kosovo is situated in a WNV-endemic region where the seroepidemiological data on WNV in humans remains absent. To address this issue, we have conducted a seroepidemiological investigation of 453 randomly selected sera from a hospital in Kosovo, revealing a 1.55% anti-WNV IgG seroprevalence. Comparative and phylogeographic analyses of the WNV genomes obtained by sequencing archived samples from patients with West Nile fever indicate at least two recent and distinct introductions of WNV lineage 2 into Kosovo from neighboring countries. These findings confirm the eco-epidemiological status of WNV in southeast Europe, where long- and short-range dispersion of lineage 2 strains contributes to a wider circulation via central Europe. Our results suggest an increasing risk for WNV spreading in Kosovo, underscoring the need for an integrated national surveillance program targeting vectors and avian populations for early epidemic detection, as well as the screening of blood donors to gauge the impact of virus circulation on the human population.

Abrupt Increase in Detection of Locally Acquired West-Nile-Virus-Lineage-2-Mediated Neuroinvasive Disease in a Previously Non-Endemic Area of Southern Italy (2023)

West Nile virus (WNV) is a public health concern in Europe. Rising temperatures and the migration of potential vectors promote the spread of viruses to previously unaffected areas. In 2023, the Apulia region of Southern Italy experienced an unexpected increase in West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND); no such cases had been reported in the previous 10 years. Overall, eight autochthonous cases of WNV infection were identified between July and October 2023, six of which were WNND. All cases were male (median age, 73 years). Two of the cases were blood donors. All WNND cases were hospitalized and all recovered within a few weeks. Surveillance data showed that, in the Apulia region, WNV Lineage 2 was detected in humans, mosquitoes, and horses. Based on the number of WNND cases reported, we can assume that a high number of infections occurred during the summer period. Changes in the climate in the region over recent years could be considered among the main drivers of the rapid increase in WNV infections. Therefore, integrated surveillance should be strengthened to avoid the potential massive spread of WNV in Southern Italy. Moreover, the implementation of whole-genome sequencing of WNV strains, as well as seroepidemiological studies in the area, will facilitate a better understanding of circulation dynamics.