Empirical evidence for resilience of tropical forest photosynthesis in a warmer world

Dry inside: progressive unsaturation within leaves with increasing vapour pressure deficit affects estimation of key leaf gas exchange parameters

Climate change not only leads to higher air temperatures but also increases the vapour pressure deficit (VPD) of the air. Understanding the direct effect of VPD on leaf gas exchange is crucial for precise modelling of stomatal functioning. We conducted combined leaf gas exchange and online isotope discrimination measurements on four common European tree species across a VPD range of 0.8-3.6 kPa, while maintaining constant temperatures without soil water limitation. In addition to applying the standard assumption of saturated vapour pressure inside leaves (ei), we inferred ei from oxygen isotope discrimination of CO2 and water vapour. ei desaturated progressively with increasing VPD, consistently across species, resulting in an intercellular relative humidity as low as 0.73 ± 0.11 at the highest tested VPD. Assuming saturation of ei overestimated the extent of reductions in stomatal conductance and CO2 mole fraction inside leaves in response to increasing VPD compared with calculations that accounted for unsaturation. In addition, a significant decrease in mesophyll conductance with increasing VPD only occurred when the unsaturation of ei was considered. We suggest that the possibility of unsaturated ei should not be overlooked in measurements related to leaf gas exchange and in stomatal models, especially at high VPD.

The stomatal response to vapor pressure deficit drives the apparent temperature response of photosynthesis in tropical forests

As temperature rises, net carbon uptake in tropical forests decreases, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. High temperatures can limit photosynthesis directly, for example by reducing biochemical capacity, or indirectly through rising vapor pressure deficit (VPD) causing stomatal closure. To explore the independent effects of temperature and VPD on photosynthesis we analyzed photosynthesis data from the upper canopies of two tropical forests in Panama with Generalized Additive Models. Stomatal conductance and photosynthesis consistently decreased with increasing VPD, and statistically accounting for VPD increased the optimum temperature of photosynthesis (Topt) of trees from a VPD-confounded apparent Topt of c. 30-31°C to a VPD-independent Topt of c. 33-36°C, while for lianas no VPD-independent Topt was reached within the measured temperature range. Trees and lianas exhibited similar temperature and VPD responses in both forests, despite 1500 mm difference in mean annual rainfall. Over ecologically relevant temperature ranges, photosynthesis in tropical forests is largely limited by indirect effects of warming, through changes in VPD, not by direct warming effects of photosynthetic biochemistry. Failing to account for VPD when determining Topt misattributes the underlying causal mechanism and thereby hinders the advancement of mechanistic understanding of global warming effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics.

Preserving isohydricity: vertical environmental variability explains Amazon forest water-use strategies

Increases in hydrological extremes, including drought, are expected for Amazon forests. A fundamental challenge for predicting forest responses lies in identifying ecological strategies which underlie such responses. Characterization of species-specific hydraulic strategies for regulating water-use, thought to be arrayed along an 'isohydric-anisohydric' spectrum, is a widely used approach. However, recent studies have questioned the usefulness of this classification scheme, because its metrics are strongly influenced by environments, and hence can lead to divergent classifications even within the same species. Here, we propose an alternative approach positing that individual hydraulic regulation strategies emerge from the interaction of environments with traits. Specifically, we hypothesize that the vertical forest profile represents a key gradient in drought-related environments (atmospheric vapor pressure deficit, soil water availability) that drives divergent tree water-use strategies for coordinated regulation of stomatal conductance (gs) and leaf water potentials (ΨL) with tree rooting depth, a proxy for water availability. Testing this hypothesis in a seasonal eastern Amazon forest in Brazil, we found that hydraulic strategies indeed depend on height-associated environments. Upper canopy trees, experiencing high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), but stable soil water access through deep rooting, exhibited isohydric strategies, defined by little seasonal change in the diurnal pattern of gs and steady seasonal minimum ΨL. In contrast, understory trees, exposed to less variable VPD but highly variable soil water availability, exhibited anisohydric strategies, with fluctuations in diurnal gs that increased in the dry season along with increasing variation in ΨL. Our finding that canopy height structures the coordination between drought-related environmental stressors and hydraulic traits provides a basis for preserving the applicability of the isohydric-to-anisohydric spectrum, which we show here may consistently emerge from environmental context. Our work highlights the importance of understanding how environmental heterogeneity structures forest responses to climate change, providing a mechanistic basis for improving models of tropical ecosystems.

Impacts of elevated temperature and vapour pressure deficit on leaf gas exchange and plant growth across six tropical rainforest tree species

Elevated air temperature (Tair) and vapour pressure deficit (VPDair) significantly influence plant functioning, yet their relative impacts are difficult to disentangle. We examined the effects of elevated Tair (+6°C) and VPDair (+0.7 kPa) on the growth and physiology of six tropical tree species. Saplings were grown under well-watered conditions in climate-controlled glasshouses for 6 months under three treatments: (1) low Tair and low VPDair, (2) high Tair and low VPDair, and (3) high Tair and high VPDair. To assess acclimation, physiological parameters were measured at a set temperature. Warm-grown plants grown under elevated VPDair had significantly reduced stomatal conductance and increased instantaneous water use efficiency compared to plants grown under low VPDair. Photosynthetic biochemistry and thermal tolerance (Tcrit) were unaffected by VPDair, but elevated Tair caused Jmax25 to decrease and Tcrit to increase. Sapling biomass accumulation for all species responded positively to an increase in Tair, but elevated VPDair limited growth. This study shows that stomatal limitation caused by even moderate increases in VPDair can decrease productivity and growth rates in tropical species independently from Tair and has important implications for modelling the impacts of climate change on tropical forests.

Mutual inhibition effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP

The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p < 0.01), 5.831 (p < 0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m-2 yr-1 (p < 0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m-2 yr-1, while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m-2 yr-1. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.

The mobilization and transport of newly fixed carbon are driven by plant water use in an experimental rainforest under drought

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) are building blocks for biomass and fuel metabolic processes. However, it remains unclear how tropical forests mobilize, export, and transport NSCs to cope with extreme droughts. We combined drought manipulation and ecosystem 13CO2 pulse-labeling in an enclosed rainforest at Biosphere 2, assessed changes in NSCs, and traced newly assimilated carbohydrates in plant species with diverse hydraulic traits and canopy positions. We show that drought caused a depletion of leaf starch reserves and slowed export and transport of newly assimilated carbohydrates below ground. Drought effects were more pronounced in conservative canopy trees with limited supply of new photosynthates and relatively constant water status than in those with continual photosynthetic supply and deteriorated water status. We provide experimental evidence that local utilization, export, and transport of newly assimilated carbon are closely coupled with plant water use in canopy trees. We highlight that these processes are critical for understanding and predicting tree resistance and ecosystem fluxes in tropical forest under drought.

Uncoupling of stomatal conductance and photosynthesis at high temperatures: mechanistic insights from online stable isotope techniques

The strong covariation of temperature and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) in nature limits our understanding of the direct effects of temperature on leaf gas exchange. Stable isotopes in CO2 and H2 O vapour provide mechanistic insight into physiological and biochemical processes during leaf gas exchange. We conducted combined leaf gas exchange and online isotope discrimination measurements on four common European tree species across a leaf temperature range of 5-40°C, while maintaining a constant leaf-to-air VPD (0.8 kPa) without soil water limitation. Above the optimum temperature for photosynthesis (30°C) under the controlled environmental conditions, stomatal conductance (gs ) and net photosynthesis rate (An ) decoupled across all tested species, with gs increasing but An decreasing. During this decoupling, mesophyll conductance (cell wall, plasma membrane and chloroplast membrane conductance) consistently and significantly decreased among species; however, this reduction did not lead to reductions in CO2 concentration at the chloroplast surface and stroma. We question the conventional understanding that diffusional limitations of CO2 contribute to the reduction in photosynthesis at high temperatures. We suggest that stomata and mesophyll membranes could work strategically to facilitate transpiration cooling and CO2 supply, thus alleviating heat stress on leaf photosynthetic function, albeit at the cost of reduced water-use efficiency.

Leaf thermal safety margins decline at hotter temperatures in a natural warming 'experiment' in the Amazon

The threat of rising global temperatures may be especially pronounced for low-latitude, lowland plant species that have evolved under stable climatic conditions. However, little is known about how these species may acclimate to elevated temperatures. Here, we leveraged a strong, steep thermal gradient along a natural geothermal river to assess the ability of woody plants in the Amazon to acclimate to elevated air temperatures. We measured leaf traits in six common tropical woody species along the thermal gradient to investigate whether individuals of these species: acclimate their thermoregulatory traits to maintain stable leaf temperatures despite higher ambient temperatures; acclimate their photosynthetic thermal tolerances to withstand hotter leaf temperatures; and whether acclimation is sufficient to maintain stable leaf thermal safety margins (TSMs) across different growth temperatures. Individuals of three species acclimated their thermoregulatory traits, and three species increased their thermal tolerances with growth temperature. However, acclimation was generally insufficient to maintain constant TSMs. Notwithstanding, leaf health was generally consistent across growth temperatures. Acclimation in woody Amazonian plants is generally too weak to maintain TSMs at high growth temperatures, supporting previous findings that Amazonian plants will be increasingly vulnerable to thermal stress as temperatures rise.

Flower production decreases with warmer and more humid atmospheric conditions in a western Amazonian forest

Climate models predict that everwet western Amazonian forests will face warmer and wetter atmospheric conditions, and increased cloud cover. It remains unclear how these changes will impact plant reproductive performance, such as flowering, which plays a central role in sustaining food webs and forest regeneration. Warmer and wetter nights may cause reduced flower production, via increased dark respiration rates or alteration in the reliability of flowering cue-based processes. Additionally, more persistent cloud cover should reduce the amounts of solar irradiance, which could limit flower production. We tested whether interannual variation in flower production has changed in response to fluctuations in irradiance, rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity over 18 yrs in an everwet forest in Ecuador. Analyses of 184 plant species showed that flower production declined as nighttime temperature and relative humidity increased, suggesting that warmer nights and greater atmospheric water saturation negatively impacted reproduction. Species varied in their flowering responses to climatic variables but this variation was not explained by life form or phylogeny. Our results shed light on how plant communities will respond to climatic changes in this everwet region, in which the impacts of these changes have been poorly studied compared with more seasonal Neotropical areas.

Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern1-3. For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system1. Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions.

Vapour pressure deficit modulates hydraulic function and structure of tropical rainforests under nonlimiting soil water supply

Atmospheric conditions are expected to become warmer and drier in the future, but little is known about how evaporative demand influences forest structure and function independently from soil moisture availability, and how fast-response variables (such as canopy water potential and stomatal conductance) may mediate longer-term changes in forest structure and function in response to climate change. We used two tropical rainforest sites with different temperatures and vapour pressure deficits (VPD), but nonlimiting soil water supply, to assess the impact of evaporative demand on ecophysiological function and forest structure. Common species between sites allowed us to test the extent to which species composition, relative abundance and intraspecific variability contributed to site-level differences. The highest VPD site had lower midday canopy water potentials, canopy conductance (gc ), annual transpiration, forest stature, and biomass, while the transpiration rate was less sensitive to changes in VPD; it also had different height-diameter allometry (accounting for 51% of the difference in biomass between sites) and higher plot-level wood density. Our findings suggest that increases in VPD, even in the absence of soil water limitation, influence fast-response variables, such as canopy water potentials and gc , potentially leading to longer-term changes in forest stature resulting in reductions in biomass.

Simulating atmospheric drought: Silica gel packets dehumidify mesocosm microclimates

1. As global temperatures rise, droughts are becoming more frequent and severe. To predict how drought might affect plant communities, ecologists have traditionally designed experiments with controlled watering regimes and rainout shelters. Both treatments have proven effective for simulating soil drought. However, neither are designed to directly modify atmospheric drought. 2. Here, we detail the efficacy of a silica gel atmospheric drought treatment in outdoor mesocosms with and without a cooccurring soil drought treatment. At California State University, Los Angeles, we monitored relative humidity (RH), temperature, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) every 10 minutes for five months in a bare-ground experiment featuring mesocosms treated with soil drought (reduced watering) and/or atmospheric drought (silica packets suspended 12 cm above soil). 3. We found that silica packets dehumidified these microclimates most effectively (-5% RH) when combined with reduced soil water, regardless of the ambient humidity levels of the surrounding air. Further, packets increased microclimate VPD most effectively (+0.4 kPa) when combined with reduced soil water and ambient air temperatures above 20°C. Finally, packets simulated atmospheric drought most consistently when replaced within three days of deployment. 4. Our results demonstrate the use of silica packets as effective dehumidification agents in outdoor drought experiments. We emphasize that incorporating atmospheric drought in existing soil drought experiments can improve our understandings of the ecological impacts of drought.

Physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than climatic niches in plants

Understanding how plants respond to thermal stress is central to predicting plant responses and community dynamics in natural ecosystems under projected scenarios of climate change. Although physiological tolerance is suggested to evolve slower than climatic niches, this comparison remains to be addressed in plants using a phylogenetic comparative approach. In this study, we compared i) the evolutionary rates of physiological tolerance to extreme temperatures with ii) the corresponding rates of climatic niche across three major vascular plant groups. We further accounted for the potential effects of hardening when examining the association between physiological and climatic niche rates. We found that physiological cold tolerance evolves faster than heat tolerance in all three groups. The coldest climatic-niche temperatures evolve faster than the warmest climatic-niche temperatures. Importantly, evolutionary rates of physiological cold tolerance were faster than rates of change in climatic niches. However, an inverse association between physiological cold tolerance and responding climatic niche for plants without hardening was detected. Our results indicated that plants may be sensitive to changes in warmer temperatures due to the slower evolutionary rates of heat tolerance. This pattern has deep implications for the framework that is being used to estimate climate-related extinctions over the upcoming century.

Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds

The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (Tcrit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed Tcrit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding Tcrit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of Tcrit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity3,4.

Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature

Tropical reforestation is among the most powerful tools for carbon sequestration. Yet, climate change impacts on productivity are often not accounted for when estimating its mitigation potential. Using the process-based forest growth model 3-PGmix, we analyzed future productivity of tropical reforestation in Central America. Around 29°C mean annual temperature, productivity sharply and consistently declined (-11% per 1°C of warming) across all tropical lowland climate zones and five tree species spanning a wide range of ecological characteristics. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), productivity of dry tropical reforestation nearly halved and tropical moist and rain forest sites showed moderate losses around 10% by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5, tropical moist and rain forest sites were resilient and tropical dry forest sites showed moderate losses (-17%). Increased vapor pressure deficit, caused by increasing temperatures, was the main driver of growth decline. Thus, to continue following high-emission pathways could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation as climate action tool.

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration is consistent in tropical and subtropical populations of two mangrove species

Populations from different climates often show unique growth responses to temperature, reflecting temperature adaptation. Yet, whether populations from different climates differ in physiological temperature acclimation remains unclear. Here, we test whether populations from differing thermal environments exhibit different growth responses to temperature and differences in temperature acclimation of leaf respiration. We grew tropical and subtropical populations of two mangrove species (Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle) under ambient and experimentally warmed conditions in a common garden at the species' northern range limit. We quantified growth and temperature responses of leaf respiration (R) at seven time points over ~10 months. Warming increased productivity of tropical populations more than subtropical populations, reflecting a higher temperature optimum for growth. In both species, R measured at 25 °C declined as seasonal temperatures increased, demonstrating thermal acclimation. Contrary to our expectations, acclimation of R was consistent across populations and temperature treatments. However, populations differed in adjusting the temperature sensitivity of R (Q10) to seasonal temperatures. Following a freeze event, tropical Avicennia showed greater freeze damage than subtropical Avicennia, while both Rhizophora populations appeared equally susceptible. We found evidence of temperature adaptation at the whole-plant scale but little evidence for population differences in thermal acclimation of leaf physiology. Studies that examine potential costs and benefits of thermal acclimation in an evolutionary context may provide new insights into limits of thermal acclimation.

Thermal optimum of photosynthesis is controlled by stomatal conductance and does not acclimate across an urban thermal gradient in six subtropical tree species

Modelling the response of plants to climate change is limited by our incomplete understanding of the component processes of photosynthesis and their temperature responses within and among species. For ≥20 individuals, each of six common subtropical tree species occurring across steep urban thermal gradients in Miami, Florida, USA, we determined rates of net photosynthesis (A_net ), maximum RuBP carboxylation, maximum RuBP regeneration and stomatal conductance, and modelled the optimum temperature (T_opt ) and process rate of each parameter to address two questions: (1) Do the T_opt of A_net (T_optA ) and the maximum A_net (A_opt ) of subtropical trees reflect acclimation to elevated growth temperatures? And (2) What limits A_net in subtropical trees? Against expectations, we did not find significant acclimation of T_optA , A_opt  or the T_opt of any of the underlying photosynthetic parameters to growth temperature in any of the focal species. Model selection for the single best predictor of A_net both across leaf temperatures and at T_optA revealed that the A_net of most trees was best predicted by stomatal conductance. Our findings are in accord with those of previous studies, especially in the tropics, that have identified stomatal conductance to be the most important factor limiting A_net , rather than biochemical thermal responses.

Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation

The atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (CGR) variability is largely controlled by tropical temperature fluctuations. The sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature [Formula: see text] has strongly increased since 1960, but here we show that this trend has ceased. Here, we use the long-term CO₂ records from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to compute CGR, and show that [Formula: see text] increased by 200% from 1960-1979 to 1979-2000 but then decreased by 117% from 1980-2001 to 2001-2020, almost returning back to the level of the 1960s. Variations in [Formula: see text] are significantly correlated with changes in precipitation at a bi-decadal scale. These findings are further corroborated by results from a dynamic vegetation model, collectively suggesting that increases in precipitation control the decreased [Formula: see text] during recent decades. Our results indicate that wetter conditions have led to a decoupling of the impact of the tropical temperature variation on the carbon cycle.

Optimality principles explaining divergent responses of alpine vegetation to environmental change

Recent increases in vegetation greenness over much of the world reflect increasing CO₂ globally and warming in cold areas. However, the strength of the response to both CO₂ and warming in those areas appears to be declining for unclear reasons, contributing to large uncertainties in predicting how vegetation will respond to future global changes. Here, we investigated the changes of satellite-observed peak season absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (F_max ) on the Tibetan Plateau between 1982 and 2016. Although climate trends are similar across the Plateau, we identified robust divergent responses (a greening of 0.31 ± 0.14% year^-1 in drier regions and a browning of 0.12 ± 0.08% year^-1 in wetter regions). Using an eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) concept of plant acclimation/adaptation, we propose a parsimonious modelling framework that quantitatively explains these changes in terms of water and energy limitations. Our model captured the variations in F_max with a correlation coefficient (r) of .76 and a root mean squared error of .12 and predicted the divergent trends of greening (0.32 ± 0.19% year^-1 ) and browning (0.07 ± 0.06% year^-1 ). We also predicted the observed reduced sensitivities of F_max to precipitation and temperature. The model allows us to explain these changes: Enhanced growing season cumulative radiation has opposite effects on water use and energy uptake. Increased precipitation has an overwhelmingly positive effect in drier regions, whereas warming reduces F_max in wetter regions by increasing the cost of building and maintaining leaf area. Rising CO₂ stimulates vegetation growth by enhancing water-use efficiency, but its effect on photosynthesis saturates. The large decrease in the sensitivity of vegetation to climate reflects a shift from water to energy limitation. Our study demonstrates the potential of EEO approaches to reveal the mechanisms underlying recent trends in vegetation greenness and provides further insight into the response of alpine ecosystems to ongoing climate change.

Thermal sensitivity across forest vertical profiles: patterns, mechanisms, and ecological implications

Rising temperatures are influencing forests on many scales, with potentially strong variation vertically across forest strata. Using published research and new analyses, we evaluate how microclimate and leaf temperatures, traits, and gas exchange vary vertically in forests, shaping tree, and ecosystem ecology. In closed-canopy forests, upper canopy leaves are exposed to the highest solar radiation and evaporative demand, which can elevate leaf temperature (T_leaf ), particularly when transpirational cooling is curtailed by limited stomatal conductance. However, foliar traits also vary across height or light gradients, partially mitigating and protecting against the elevation of upper canopy T_leaf . Leaf metabolism generally increases with height across the vertical gradient, yet differences in thermal sensitivity across the gradient appear modest. Scaling from leaves to trees, canopy trees have higher absolute metabolic capacity and growth, yet are more vulnerable to drought and damaging T_leaf than their smaller counterparts, particularly under climate change. By contrast, understory trees experience fewer extreme high T_leaf 's but have fewer cooling mechanisms and thus may be strongly impacted by warming under some conditions, particularly when exposed to a harsher microenvironment through canopy disturbance. As the climate changes, integrating the patterns and mechanisms reviewed here into models will be critical to forecasting forest-climate feedback.

Limited acclimation of leaf traits and leaf temperatures in a subtropical urban heat island

The consequences of rising temperatures for trees will vary between species based on their abilities to acclimate their leaf thermoregulatory traits and photosynthetic thermal tolerances. We tested the hypotheses that adult trees in warmer growing conditions (i) acclimate their thermoregulatory traits to regulate leaf temperatures, (ii) acclimate their thermal tolerances such that tolerances are positively correlated with leaf temperature and (iii) that species with broader thermal niche breadths have greater acclimatory abilities. To test these hypotheses, we measured leaf traits and thermal tolerances of seven focal tree species across steep thermal gradients in Miami's urban heat island. We found that some functional traits varied significantly across air temperatures within species. For example, leaf thickness increased with maximum air temperature in three species, and leaf mass per area and leaf reflectance both increased with air temperature in one species. Only one species was marginally more homeothermic than expected by chance due to acclimation of its thermoregulatory traits, but this acclimation was insufficient to offset elevated air temperatures. Thermal tolerances acclimated to higher maximum air temperatures in two species. As a result of limited acclimation, leaf thermal safety margins (TSMs) were narrower for trees in hotter areas. We found some support for our hypothesis that species with broader thermal niches are better at acclimating to maintain more stable TSMs across the temperature gradients. These findings suggest that trees have limited abilities to acclimate to high temperatures and that thermal niche specialists may be at a heightened risk of thermal stress as global temperatures continue to rise.

Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene

Tropical forests are complex systems containing myriad interactions and feedbacks with their biotic and abiotic environments, but as the world changes fast, the future of these ecosystems becomes increasingly uncertain. In particular, global stressors may unbalance the feedbacks that stabilize tropical forests, allowing other feedbacks to propel undesired changes in the whole ecosystem. Here, we review the scientific literature across various fields, compiling known interactions of tropical forests with their environment, including the global climate, rainfall, aerosols, fire, soils, fauna, and human activities. We identify 170 individual interactions among 32 elements that we present as a global tropical forest network, including countless feedback loops that may emerge from different combinations of interactions. We illustrate our findings with three cases involving urgent sustainability issues: (1) wildfires in wetlands of South America; (2) forest encroachment in African savanna landscapes; and (3) synergistic threats to the peatland forests of Borneo. Our findings reveal an unexplored world of feedbacks that shape the dynamics of tropical forests. The interactions and feedbacks identified here can guide future qualitative and quantitative research on the complexities of tropical forests, allowing societies to manage the nonlinear responses of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene.

Rising ecosystem water demand exacerbates the lengthening of tropical dry seasons

Precipitation-based assessments show a lengthening of tropical dry seasons under climate change, without considering simultaneous changes in ecosystem water demand. Here, we compare changes in tropical dry season length and timing when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation is less than: its climatological average, potential evapotranspiration, or actual evapotranspiration. While all definitions show more widespread tropical drying than wetting for 1983-2016, we find the largest fraction (48.7%) of tropical land probably experiencing longer dry seasons when dry season is defined as the period when precipitation cannot meet the need of actual evapotranspiration. Southern Amazonia (due to delayed end) and central Africa (due to earlier onset and delayed end) are hotspots of dry season lengthening, with greater certainty when accounting for water demand changes. Therefore, it is necessary to account for changing water demand when characterizing changes in tropical dry periods and ecosystem water deficits.

Changing precipitation pattern has been suggested to expand tropical dry seasons. Here, the authors show that this lengthening can be even more severe when accounting for the simultaneous rise of ecosystem water demand in a warmer climate.

Distribution of biomass dynamics in relation to tree size in forests across the world

Tree size shapes forest carbon dynamics and determines how trees interact with their environment, including a changing climate. Here, we conduct the first global analysis of among-site differences in how aboveground biomass stocks and fluxes are distributed with tree size. We analyzed repeat tree censuses from 25 large-scale (4-52 ha) forest plots spanning a broad climatic range over five continents to characterize how aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality vary with tree diameter. We examined how the median, dispersion, and skewness of these size-related distributions vary with mean annual temperature and precipitation. In warmer forests, aboveground biomass, woody productivity, and woody mortality were more broadly distributed with respect to tree size. In warmer and wetter forests, aboveground biomass and woody productivity were more right skewed, with a long tail towards large trees. Small trees (1-10 cm diameter) contributed more to productivity and mortality than to biomass, highlighting the importance of including these trees in analyses of forest dynamics. Our findings provide an improved characterization of climate-driven forest differences in the size structure of aboveground biomass and dynamics of that biomass, as well as refined benchmarks for capturing climate influences in vegetation demographic models.

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress

Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics^1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear^3-8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35 years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

Functional susceptibility of tropical forests to climate change

Tropical forests are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, yet their functioning is threatened by anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Global actions to conserve tropical forests could be enhanced by having local knowledge on the forests' functional diversity and functional redundancy as proxies for their capacity to respond to global environmental change. Here we create estimates of plant functional diversity and redundancy across the tropics by combining a dataset of 16 morphological, chemical and photosynthetic plant traits sampled from 2,461 individual trees from 74 sites distributed across four continents together with local climate data for the past half century. Our findings suggest a strong link between climate and functional diversity and redundancy with the three trait groups responding similarly across the tropics and climate gradient. We show that drier tropical forests are overall less functionally diverse than wetter forests and that functional redundancy declines with increasing soil water and vapour pressure deficits. Areas with high functional diversity and high functional redundancy tend to better maintain ecosystem functioning, such as aboveground biomass, after extreme weather events. Our predictions suggest that the lower functional diversity and lower functional redundancy of drier tropical forests, in comparison with wetter forests, may leave them more at risk of shifting towards alternative states in face of further declines in water availability across tropical regions.

Tropical rainforest species have larger increases in temperature optima with warming than warm-temperate rainforest trees

While trees can acclimate to warming, there is concern that tropical rainforest species may be less able to acclimate because they have adapted to a relatively stable thermal environment. Here we tested whether the physiological adjustments to warming differed among Australian tropical, subtropical and warm-temperate rainforest trees. Photosynthesis and respiration temperature responses were quantified in six Australian rainforest seedlings of tropical, subtropical and warm-temperate climates grown across four growth temperatures in a glasshouse. Temperature-response models were fitted to identify mechanisms underpinning the response to warming. Tropical and subtropical species had higher temperature optima for photosynthesis (T_optA ) than temperate species. There was acclimation of T_optA to warmer growth temperatures. The rate of acclimation (0.35-0.78°C °C^-1 ) was higher in tropical and subtropical than in warm-temperate trees and attributed to differences in underlying biochemical parameters, particularly increased temperature optima of V_cmax25 and J_max25 . The temperature sensitivity of respiration (Q₁₀ ) was 24% lower in tropical and subtropical compared with warm-temperate species. Overall, tropical and subtropical species had a similar capacity to acclimate to changes in growth temperature as warm-temperate species, despite being grown at higher temperatures. Quantifying the physiological acclimation in rainforests can improve accuracy of future climate predictions and assess their potential vulnerability to warming.

The Effects of Environmental Changes on Plant Species and Forest Dependent Communities in the Amazon Region

We review the consequences of environmental changes caused by human activities on forest products and forest-dependent communities in the Amazon region—the vast Amazonas River basin and the Guiana Shield in South America. We used the 2018 and 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and recent scientific studies to present evidence and hypotheses for changes in the ecosystem productivity and geographical distribution of plants species. We have identified species associated with highly employed forest products exhibiting reducing populations, mainly linked with deforestation and selective logging. Changes in species composition along with a decline of valuable species have been observed in the eastern, central, and southern regions of the Brazilian Amazon, suggesting accelerated biodiversity loss. Over 1 billion native trees and palms are being lost every two years, causing economic losses estimated between US$1–17 billion. A decrease in native plant species can be abrupt and both temporary or persistent for over 20 years, leading to reduced economic opportunities for forest-dependent communities. Science and technology investments are considered promising in implementing agroforestry systems recovering deforested and degraded lands, which could engage companies that use forest products due to supply chain advantages.

Vegetation responses to climate extremes recorded by remotely sensed atmospheric formaldehyde

Accurate monitoring of vegetation stress is required for better modelling and forecasting of primary production, in a world where heatwaves and droughts are expected to become increasingly prevalent. Variability in formaldehyde (HCHO) concentrations in the troposphere is dominated by local emissions of short-lived biogenic (BVOC) and pyrogenic volatile organic compounds. BVOCs are emitted by plants in a rapid protective response to abiotic stress, mediated by the energetic status of leaves (the excess of reducing power when photosynthetic light and dark reactions are decoupled, as occurs when stomata close in response to water stress). Emissions also increase exponentially with leaf temperature. New analytical methods for the detection of spatiotemporally contiguous extremes in remote-sensing data are applied here to satellite-derived atmospheric HCHO columns. BVOC emissions are shown to play a central role in the formation of the largest positive HCHO anomalies. Although vegetation stress can be captured by various remotely sensed quantities, spaceborne HCHO emerges as the most consistent recorder of vegetation responses to the largest climate extremes, especially in forested regions.

Forest fragmentation impacts the seasonality of Amazonian evergreen canopies

Predictions of the magnitude and timing of leaf phenology in Amazonian forests remain highly controversial. Here, we use terrestrial LiDAR surveys every two weeks spanning wet and dry seasons in Central Amazonia to show that plant phenology varies strongly across vertical strata in old-growth forests, but is sensitive to disturbances arising from forest fragmentation. In combination with continuous microclimate measurements, we find that when maximum daily temperatures reached 35 °C in the latter part of the dry season, the upper canopy of large trees in undisturbed forests lost plant material. In contrast, the understory greened up with increased light availability driven by the upper canopy loss, alongside increases in solar radiation, even during periods of drier soil and atmospheric conditions. However, persistently high temperatures in forest edges exacerbated the upper canopy losses of large trees throughout the dry season, whereas the understory in these light-rich environments was less dependent on the altered upper canopy structure. Our findings reveal a strong influence of edge effects on phenological controls in wet forests of Central Amazonia.

Short-term warming does not affect intrinsic thermotolerance but induces strong sustaining photoprotection in tropical evergreen citrus genotypes

Consequences of warming and postwarming events on photosynthetic thermotolerance (P_T ) and photoprotective responses in tropical evergreen species remain elusive. We chose Citrus to answer some of the emerging questions related to tropical evergreen species' P_T behaviour including (i) how wide is the genotypic variation in P_T ? (ii) how does P_T respond to short-term warming and (iii) how do photosynthesis and photoprotective functions respond over short-term warming and postwarming events? A study on 21 genotypes revealed significant genotypic differences in P_T , though these were not large. We selected five genotypes with divergent P_T and simulated warming events: T_max 26/20°C (day-time highest maximum/night-time lowest maximum) (Week 1) < T_max 33/30°C (Week 2) < T_max 36/32°C (Week 3) followed by T_max 26/16°C (Week 4, recovery). The P_T of all genotypes remained unaltered despite strong leaf megathermy (leaf temperature > air temperature) during warming events. Though moderate warming showed genotype-specific stimulation in photosynthesis, higher warming unequivocally led to severe loss in net photosynthesis and induced higher nonphotochemical quenching. Even after a week of postwarming, photoprotective mechanisms strongly persisted. Our study points towards a conservative P_T in evergreen citrus genotypes and their need for sustaining higher photoprotection during warming as well as postwarming recovery conditions.

Ecosystem fluxes during drought and recovery in an experimental forest

[Figure: see text].

Thermal optima of gross primary productivity are closely aligned with mean air temperatures across Australian wooded ecosystems

Gross primary productivity (GPP) of wooded ecosystems (forests and savannas) is central to the global carbon cycle, comprising 67%-75% of total global terrestrial GPP. Climate change may alter this flux by increasing the frequency of temperatures beyond the thermal optimum of GPP (T_opt ). We examined the relationship between GPP and air temperature (Ta) in 17 wooded ecosystems dominated by a single plant functional type (broadleaf evergreen trees) occurring over a broad climatic gradient encompassing five ecoregions across Australia ranging from tropical in the north to Mediterranean and temperate in the south. We applied a novel boundary-line analysis to eddy covariance flux observations to (a) derive ecosystem GPP-Ta relationships and T_opt (including seasonal analyses for five tropical savannas); (b) quantitatively and qualitatively assess GPP-Ta relationships within and among ecoregions; (c) examine the relationship between T_opt and mean daytime air temperature (MDTa) across all ecosystems; and (d) examine how down-welling short-wave radiation (Fsd) and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) influence the GPP-Ta relationship. GPP-Ta relationships were convex parabolas with narrow curves in tropical forests, tropical savannas (wet season), and temperate forests, and wider curves in temperate woodlands, Mediterranean woodlands, and tropical savannas (dry season). Ecosystem T_opt ranged from 15℃ (temperate forest) to 32℃ (tropical savanna-wet and dry seasons). The shape of GPP-Ta curves was largely determined by daytime Ta range, MDTa, and maximum GPP with the upslope influenced by Fsd and the downslope influenced by VPD. Across all ecosystems, there was a strong positive linear relationship between T_opt and MDTa (Adjusted R² : 0.81; Slope: 1.08) with T_opt exceeding MDTa by >1℃ at all but two sites. We conclude that ecosystem GPP has adjusted to local MDTa within Australian broadleaf evergreen forests and that GPP is buffered against small Ta increases in the majority of these ecosystems.

Experimental warming across a tropical forest canopy height gradient reveals minimal photosynthetic and respiratory acclimation

Tropical forest canopies cycle vast amounts of carbon, yet we still have a limited understanding of how these critical ecosystems will respond to climate warming. We implemented in situ leaf-level + 3°C experimental warming from the understory to the upper canopy of two Puerto Rican tropical tree species, Guarea guidonia and Ocotea sintenisii. After approximately 1 month of continuous warming, we assessed adjustments in photosynthesis, chlorophyll fluorescence, stomatal conductance, leaf traits and foliar respiration. Warming did not alter net photosynthetic temperature response for either species; however, the optimum temperature of Ocotea understory leaf photosynthetic electron transport shifted upward. There was no Ocotea respiratory treatment effect, while Guarea respiratory temperature sensitivity (Q₁₀ ) was down-regulated in heated leaves. The optimum temperatures for photosynthesis (T_opt ) decreased 3-5°C from understory to the highest canopy position, perhaps due to upper canopy stomatal conductance limitations. Guarea upper canopy T_opt was similar to the mean daytime temperatures, while Ocotea canopy leaves often operated above T_opt . With minimal acclimation to warmer temperatures in the upper canopy, further warming could put these forests at risk of reduced CO₂ uptake, which could weaken the overall carbon sink strength of this tropical forest.

Photosystem II heat tolerances characterize thermal generalists and the upper limit of carbon assimilation

The heat tolerance of photosystem II (PSII) may promote carbon assimilation at higher temperatures and help explain plant responses to climate change. Higher PSII heat tolerance could lead to (a) increases in the high-temperature compensation point (T_max ); (b) increases in the thermal breadth of photosynthesis (i.e. the photosynthetic parameter Ω) to promote a thermal generalist strategy of carbon assimilation; (c) increases in the optimum rate of carbon assimilation P_opt and faster carbon assimilation and/or (d) increases in the optimum temperature for photosynthesis (T_opt ). To address these hypotheses, we tested if the T_crit , T₅₀ and T₉₅ PSII heat tolerances were correlated with carbon assimilation parameters for 21 plant species. Our results did not support Hypothesis 1, but we observed that T₅₀ may be used to estimate the upper thermal limit for T_max at the species level, and that community mean T_crit may be useful for approximating T_max . The T₅₀ and T₉₅ heat tolerance metrics were positively correlated with Ω in support of Hypothesis 2. We found no support for Hypotheses 3 or 4. Our study shows that high PSII heat tolerance is unlikely to improve carbon assimilation at higher temperatures but may characterize thermal generalists with slow resource acquisition strategies.

Photosynthetic plasticity of a tropical tree species, Tabebuia rosea, in response to elevated temperature and [CO2 ]

Atmospheric and climate change will expose tropical forests to conditions they have not experienced in millions of years. To better understand the consequences of this change, we studied photosynthetic acclimation of the neotropical tree species Tabebuia rosea to combined 4°C warming and twice-ambient (800 ppm) CO₂ . We measured temperature responses of the maximum rates of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate carboxylation (V_CMax ), photosynthetic electron transport (J_Max ), net photosynthesis (P_Net ), and stomatal conductance (g_s ), and fitted the data using a probabilistic Bayesian approach. To evaluate short-term acclimation plants were then switched between treatment and control conditions and re-measured after 1-2 weeks. Consistent with acclimation, the optimum temperatures (T_Opt ) for V_CMax , J_Max and P_Net were 1-5°C higher in treatment than in control plants, while photosynthetic capacity (V_CMax , J_Max , and P_Net at T_Opt ) was 8-25% lower. Likewise, moving control plants to treatment conditions moderately increased temperature optima and decreased photosynthetic capacity. Stomatal density and sensitivity to leaf-to-air vapour pressure deficit were not affected by growth conditions, and treatment plants did not exhibit stronger stomatal limitations. Collectively, these results illustrate the strong photosynthetic plasticity of this tropical tree species as even fully developed leaves of saplings transferred to extreme conditions partially acclimated.

Global patterns of forest autotrophic carbon fluxes

Carbon (C) fixation, allocation, and metabolism by trees set the basis for energy and material flows in forest ecosystems and define their interactions with Earth's changing climate. However, while many studies have considered variation in productivity with latitude and climate, we lack a cohesive synthesis on how forest carbon fluxes vary globally with respect to climate and one another. Here, we draw upon 1,319 records from the Global Forest Carbon Database, representing all major forest types and the nine most significant autotrophic carbon fluxes, to comprehensively review how annual C cycling in mature, undisturbed forests varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. Across all flux variables analyzed, rates of C cycling decreased continuously with absolute latitude-a finding that confirms multiple previous studies and contradicts the idea that net primary productivity of temperate forests rivals that of tropical forests. C flux variables generally displayed similar trends across latitude and multiple climate variables, with no differences in allocation detected at this global scale. Temperature variables in general, and mean annual temperature or temperature seasonality in particular, were the best single predictors of C flux, explaining 19%-71% of variation in the C fluxes analyzed. The effects of temperature were modified by moisture availability, with C flux reduced under hot and dry conditions and sometimes under very high precipitation. Annual C fluxes increased with growing season length and were also influenced by growing season climate. These findings clarify how forest C flux varies with latitude and climate on a global scale. In an era when forests will play a critical yet uncertain role in shaping Earth's rapidly changing climate, our synthesis provides a foundation for understanding global patterns in forest C cycling.

Assessing model performance via the most limiting environmental driver in two differently stressed pine stands

Climate change will impact forest productivity worldwide. Forecasting the magnitude of such impact, with multiple environmental stressors changing simultaneously, is only possible with the help of process-based models. In order to assess their performance, such models require careful evaluation against measurements. However, direct comparison of model outputs against observational data is often not reliable, as models may provide the right answers due to the wrong reasons. This would severely hinder forecasting abilities under unprecedented climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology for model assessment, which supplements the traditional output-to-observation model validation. It evaluates model performance through its ability to reproduce observed seasonal changes of the most limiting environmental driver (MLED) for a given process, here daily gross primary productivity (GPP). We analyzed seasonal changes of the MLED for GPP in two contrasting pine forests, the Mediterranean Pinus halepensis Mill. Yatir (Israel) and the boreal Pinus sylvestris L. Hyytiälä (Finland) from three years of eddy-covariance flux data. Then, we simulated the same period with a state-of-the-art process-based simulation model (LandscapeDNDC). Finally, we assessed if the model was able to reproduce both GPP observations and MLED seasonality. We found that the model reproduced the seasonality of GPP in both stands, but it was slightly overestimated without site-specific fine-tuning. Interestingly, although LandscapeDNDC properly captured the main MLED in Hyytiälä (temperature) and in Yatir (soil water availability), it failed to reproduce high-temperature and high-vapor pressure limitations of GPP in Yatir during spring and summer. We deduced that the most likely reason for this divergence is an incomplete description of stomatal behavior. In summary, this study validates the MLED approach as a model evaluation tool, and opens up new possibilities for model improvement.