Individual immune selection pressure has limited impact on seasonal influenza virus evolution

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Transmembrane Helices Are an Over-Presented and Evolutionarily Conserved Source of Major Histocompatibility Complex Class I and II Epitopes

Cytolytic T cell responses are predicted to be biased towards membrane proteins. The peptide-binding grooves of most alleles of histocompatibility complex class I (MHC-I) are relatively hydrophobic, therefore peptide fragments derived from human transmembrane helices (TMHs) are predicted to be presented more often as would be expected based on their abundance in the proteome. However, the physiological reason of why membrane proteins might be over-presented is unclear. In this study, we show that the predicted over-presentation of TMH-derived peptides is general, as it is predicted for bacteria and viruses and for both MHC-I and MHC-II, and confirmed by re-analysis of epitope databases. Moreover, we show that TMHs are evolutionarily more conserved, because single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are present relatively less frequently in TMH-coding chromosomal regions compared to regions coding for extracellular and cytoplasmic protein regions. Thus, our findings suggest that both cytolytic and helper T cells are more tuned to respond to membrane proteins, because these are evolutionary more conserved. We speculate that TMHs are less prone to mutations that enable pathogens to evade T cell responses.

Intra- and inter-host evolution of H9N2 influenza A virus in Japanese quail

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are constantly evolving. Crucial steps in the infection cycle, such as sialic acid (SA) receptor binding on the host cell surface, can either promote or hamper the emergence of new variants. We previously assessed the relative fitness in Japanese quail of H9N2 variant viruses differing at a single amino acid position, residue 216 in the hemagglutinin (HA) viral surface protein. This site is known to modulate SA recognition. Our prior study generated a valuable set of longitudinal samples from quail transmission groups where the inoculum comprised different mixed populations of HA 216 variant viruses. Here, we leveraged these samples to examine the evolutionary dynamics of viral populations within and between inoculated and naïve contact quails. We found that positive selection dominated HA gene evolution, but fixation of the fittest variant depended on the competition mixture. Analysis of the whole genome revealed further evidence of positive selection acting both within and between hosts. Positive selection drove fixation of variants in non-HA segments within inoculated and contact quails. Importantly, transmission bottlenecks were modulated by the molecular signature at HA 216, revealing viral receptor usage as a determinant of transmitted diversity. Overall, we show that selection strongly shaped the evolutionary dynamics within and between quails. These findings support the notion that selective processes act effectively on IAV populations in poultry hosts, facilitating rapid viral evolution in this ecological niche.

Antigenic drift: Understanding COVID-19

Antigenic drift refers to the evolutionary accumulation of amino acid substitutions in viral proteins selected by host adaptive immune systems as the virus circulates in a population. Antigenic drift can substantially limit the duration of immunity conferred by infection and vaccination. Here, I explain the factors contributing to the rapid antigenic drift of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and receptor proteins of other viruses and discuss the implications for SARS-CoV-2 evolution and immunity.

Within-host evolutionary dynamics of seasonal and pandemic human influenza A viruses in young children

The evolution of influenza viruses is fundamentally shaped by within-host processes. However, the within-host evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses remain incompletely understood, in part because most studies have focused on infections in healthy adults based on single timepoint data. Here, we analyzed the within-host evolution of 82 longitudinally sampled individuals, mostly young children, infected with A/H1N1pdm09 or A/H3N2 viruses between 2007 and 2009. For A/H1N1pdm09 infections during the 2009 pandemic, nonsynonymous minority variants were more prevalent than synonymous ones. For A/H3N2 viruses in young children, early infection was dominated by purifying selection. As these infections progressed, nonsynonymous variants typically increased in frequency even when within-host virus titers decreased. Unlike the short-lived infections of adults where de novo within-host variants are rare, longer infections in young children allow for the maintenance of virus diversity via mutation-selection balance creating potentially important opportunities for within-host virus evolution.

An Antigenic Thrift-Based Approach to Influenza Vaccine Design

The antigenic drift theory states that influenza evolves via the gradual accumulation of mutations, decreasing a host’s immune protection against previous strains. Influenza vaccines are designed accordingly, under the premise of antigenic drift. However, a paradox exists at the centre of influenza research. If influenza evolved primarily through mutation in multiple epitopes, multiple influenza strains should co-circulate. Such a multitude of strains would render influenza vaccines quickly inefficacious. Instead, a single or limited number of strains dominate circulation each influenza season. Unless additional constraints are placed on the evolution of influenza, antigenic drift does not adequately explain these observations. Here, we explore the constraints placed on antigenic drift and a competing theory of influenza evolution – antigenic thrift. In contrast to antigenic drift, antigenic thrift states that immune selection targets epitopes of limited variability, which constrain the variability of the virus. We explain the implications of antigenic drift and antigenic thrift and explore their current and potential uses in the context of influenza vaccine design.

Asynchrony between virus diversity and antibody selection limits influenza virus evolution

Seasonal influenza viruses create a persistent global disease burden by evolving to escape immunity induced by prior infections and vaccinations. New antigenic variants have a substantial selective advantage at the population level, but these variants are rarely selected within-host, even in previously immune individuals. Using a mathematical model, we show that the temporal asynchrony between within-host virus exponential growth and antibody-mediated selection could limit within-host antigenic evolution. If selection for new antigenic variants acts principally at the point of initial virus inoculation, where small virus populations encounter well-matched mucosal antibodies in previously-infected individuals, there can exist protection against reinfection that does not regularly produce observable new antigenic variants within individual infected hosts. Our results provide a theoretical explanation for how virus antigenic evolution can be highly selective at the global level but nearly neutral within-host. They also suggest new avenues for improving influenza control.

A large effective population size for established within-host influenza virus infection

Strains of the influenza virus form coherent global populations, yet exist at the level of single infections in individual hosts. The relationship between these scales is a critical topic for understanding viral evolution. Here we investigate the within-host relationship between selection and the stochastic effects of genetic drift, estimating an effective population size of infection Ne for influenza infection. Examining whole-genome sequence data describing a chronic case of influenza B in a severely immunocompromised child we infer an Ne of 2.5 × 107 (95% confidence range 1.0 × 107 to 9.0 × 107) suggesting that genetic drift is of minimal importance during an established influenza infection. Our result, supported by data from influenza A infection, suggests that positive selection during within-host infection is primarily limited by the typically short period of infection. Atypically long infections may have a disproportionate influence upon global patterns of viral evolution.

Infectious Disease Research in the Era of Big Data

Infectious disease research spans scales from the molecular to the global—from specific mechanisms of pathogen drug resistance, virulence, and replication to the movement of people, animals, and pathogens around the world. All of these research areas have been impacted by the recent growth of large-scale data sources and data analytics. Some of these advances rely on data or analytic methods that are common to most biomedical data science, while others leverage the unique nature of infectious disease, namely its communicability. This review outlines major research progress in the past few years and highlights some remaining opportunities, focusing on data or methodological approaches particular to infectious disease.

The Ecology and Evolution of Influenza Viruses

The patterns and processes of influenza virus evolution are of fundamental importance, underpinning such traits as the propensity to emerge in new host species and the ability to rapidly generate antigenic variation. Herein, we review key aspects of the ecology and evolution of influenza viruses. We begin with an exploration of the origins of influenza viruses within the orthomyxoviruses, showing how our perception of the evolutionary history of these viruses has been transformed with metagenomic sequencing. We then outline the diversity of virus subtypes in different species and the processes by which these viruses have emerged in new hosts, with a particular focus on the role played by segment reassortment. We then turn our attention to documenting the spread and phylodynamics of seasonal influenza A and B viruses in human populations, including the drivers of antigenic evolution, and finish with a discussion of virus diversity and evolution at the scale of individual hosts.

The Phylodynamics of Seasonal Influenza A/H1N1pdm Virus in China Between 2009 and 2019

Since its first introduction into China in 2009, influenza A/H1N1pdm virus has undergone a rapid expansion and replaced the classical seasonal A(H1N1) virus. To characterize the ongoing evolution and national transmission dynamics of this virus, we analyzed 335 complete genome, 1259 HA, and 1043 NA sequences of the A/H1N1pdm strains detected in China. We found that the dN/dS value and relative genetic diversity of the A/H1N1pdm virus experienced a decrease from 2009 to 2017, and then a rapid increase during 2018–2019. Importantly, elevated relative genetic diversity was observed in the A/H1N1pdm and the A/H3N2 viruses, as well as two lineages (Victoria and Yamagata) of influenza B virus during 2018–2019, suggesting the simultaneous changes of these viruses in terms of genetic diversity might be associated with the recent large outbreak of seasonal influenza epidemic in China during 2018–2019. Fifteen amino acid mutations were found to be fixed along the main trunks of both HA and NA phylogenetic trees, and some of them are located in the antigen binding site or the receptor binding site. A sequential accumulation of mutations relative to the 2009-vaccine strain was observed in the circulating A/H1N1pdm strains during 2009–2016, while a rapid accumulation of mutations relative to the 2015-vaccine strain appeared in the emerging variants in 2017 shortly after the release of the vaccine. Multiple introductions of the A/H1N1pdm lineages into China were observed during 2009–2019, and East China and South China were found to serve as two major epicenters responsible for the national migration of the virus. In summary, these data provide important insights into the understanding of the evolution, epidemiology and transmission of the A/H1N1pdm virus, and highlight the importance of strengthening influenza surveillance in East China and South China.

Linking influenza virus evolution within and between human hosts

Influenza viruses rapidly diversify within individual human infections. Several recent studies have deep-sequenced clinical influenza infections to identify viral variation within hosts, but it remains unclear how within-host mutations fare at the between-host scale. Here, we compare the genetic variation of H3N2 influenza within and between hosts to link viral evolutionary dynamics across scales. Synonymous sites evolve at similar rates at both scales, indicating that global evolution at these putatively neutral sites results from the accumulation of within-host variation. However, nonsynonymous mutations are depleted between hosts compared to within hosts, suggesting that selection purges many of the protein-altering changes that arise within hosts. The exception is at antigenic sites, where selection detectably favors nonsynonymous mutations at the global scale, but not within hosts. These results suggest that selection against deleterious mutations and selection for antigenic change are the main forces that act on within-host variants of influenza virus as they transmit and circulate between hosts.

Influenza B Viruses Exhibit Lower Within-Host Diversity than Influenza A Viruses in Human Hosts

Influenza B virus (IBV) undergoes seasonal antigenic drift more slowly than influenza A virus, but the reasons for this difference are unclear. While the evolutionary dynamics of influenza viruses play out globally, they are fundamentally driven by mutation, reassortment, drift, and selection at the level of individual hosts. These processes have recently been described for influenza A virus, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of IBV during individual infections and transmission events. Here, we define the within-host evolutionary dynamics of IBV by sequencing virus populations from naturally infected individuals enrolled in a prospective, community-based cohort over 8,176 person-seasons of observation. Through analysis of high depth-of-coverage sequencing data from samples from 91 individuals with influenza B, we find that IBV accumulates lower genetic diversity than previously observed for influenza A virus during acute infections. Consistent with studies of influenza A viruses, the within-host evolution of IBVs is characterized by purifying selection and the general absence of widespread positive selection of within-host variants. Analysis of shared genetic diversity across 15 sequence-validated transmission pairs suggests that IBV experiences a tight transmission bottleneck similar to that of influenza A virus. These patterns of local-scale evolution are consistent with the lower global evolutionary rate of IBV.IMPORTANCE The evolution of influenza virus is a significant public health problem and necessitates the annual evaluation of influenza vaccine formulation to keep pace with viral escape from herd immunity. Influenza B virus is a serious health concern for children, in particular, yet remains understudied compared to influenza A virus. Influenza B virus evolves more slowly than influenza A virus, but the factors underlying this are not completely understood. We studied how the within-host diversity of influenza B virus relates to its global evolution by sequencing viruses from a community-based cohort. We found that influenza B virus populations have lower within-host genetic diversity than influenza A virus and experience a tight genetic bottleneck during transmission. Our work provides insights into the varying dynamics of influenza viruses in human infection.

Deep sequencing of 2009 influenza A/H1N1 virus isolated from volunteer human challenge study participants and natural infections

Nasal wash samples from 15 human volunteers challenged with GMP manufactured influenza A/California/04/2009(H1N1) and from 5 naturally infected influenza patients of the 2009 pandemic were deep sequenced using viral targeted hybridization enrichment. Ten single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) positions were found in the challenge virus. Some of the nonsynonymous changes in the inoculant virus were maintained in some challenge participants, but not in others, indicating that virus is evolving away from the Vero cell adapted inoculant, for example SNPs in the neuraminidase. Many SNP sites in challenge patients and naturally infected patients were found, many not identified previously. The SNPs identified, and phylogenetic analyses, showed that intrahost evolution of the virus are different in challenge participants and naturally infected patients. This study, using hybridization enrichment without PCR, provided an accurate and unbiased assessment of differential intrahost viral evolution from a uniform influenza inoculant in humans and comparison to naturally infected patients.