Spatial models of giant pandas under current and future conditions reveal extinction risks

Effects of climate warming on soil nitrogen cycles and bamboo growth in core giant panda habitat

Climate change can pose a significant threat to terrestrial ecosystems by disrupting the circulation of soil nitrogen. However, experimental analyses on the effect of climate change on soil nitrogen cycles and the implications for the conservation of key wildlife species (i.e., the giant panda, Ailuropoda melanoleuca) remain understudied. We investigated the effects of a 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C temperature increase on nitrogen distribution in different soil layers of bamboo forest via an in-situ experiment and assessed the implications for the growth and survival of arrow bamboo (Bashania faberi), a critical food resource for giant pandas. Our results showed that warming treatments generally increased soil N content, while effects differed between surface soil and subsurface soil and at different warming treatments. Particularly an increase of 1.5 °C raised the subsurface soil NO3-N content, as well as the content of N in bamboo leaves. We found a significant positive correlation between the subsurface soil NO3-N content and the N content of arrow bamboo. An increase of 3-4.5 °C raised the content of total N and NO3-N in the surface soil and led to a reduction in the total aboveground biomass and survival rate of arrow bamboo. Limited warming (e.g., the increase of 0-1.5 °C) may promote the soil N cycle, raise the N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) enzyme activity, increase NO3-N in subsurface soil, increase the N content of bamboo, and boost the biomass of bamboo - all of which could be beneficial to giant panda survival. However, higher warming (e.g., an increase of 3-4.5 °C) resulted in mass death of bamboo and a large reduction in aboveground biomass. Our findings provide a cautiously optimistic scenario for bamboo forest ecosystems under low levels of warming over a short period of time, but risks from higher levels of warming may be serious, especially considering the unpredictability of global climatic change.

Large-scale genome sequencing of giant pandas improves the understanding of population structure and future conservation initiatives

The extinction risk of the giant panda has been demoted from "endangered" to "vulnerable" on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, but its habitat is more fragmented than ever before, resulting in 33 isolated giant panda populations according to the fourth national survey released by the Chinese government. Further comprehensive investigations of the genetic background and in-depth assessments of the conservation status of wild populations are still necessary and urgently needed. Here, we sequenced the genomes of 612 giant pandas with an average depth of ~26× and generated a high-resolution map of genomic variation with more than 20 million variants covering wild individuals from six mountain ranges and captive representatives in China. We identified distinct genetic clusters within the Minshan population by performing a fine-grained genetic structure. The estimation of inbreeding and genetic load associated with historical population dynamics suggested that future conservation efforts should pay special attention to the Qinling and Liangshan populations. Releasing captive individuals with a genetic background similar to the recipient population appears to be an advantageous genetic rescue strategy for recovering the wild giant panda populations, as this approach introduces fewer deleterious mutations into the wild population than mating with differentiated lineages. These findings emphasize the superiority of large-scale population genomics to provide precise guidelines for future conservation of the giant panda.

Integrated framework for dynamic conservation of bamboo forest in giant panda habitat under climate change

Climate change presents formidable challenges to forest biodiversity and carbon storage. Bamboo forests will be affected particularly in Southwest China's mountainous regions. Bamboo serves as not only a key food resource and habitat for giant panda Ailuropoda melanoleuca but also a potential carbon sink due to its rapid energy-to-matter conversion capability. We employ the MaxEnt model to project the distribution shifts of 20 giant panda foraged bamboo species in Sichuan Province under future climate scenarios, utilizing climate data of 30m resolution. Based on the changes in the diversity and distribution area of bamboo communities caused by climate change, the changing of giant pandas' food resources and the carbon storage of bamboo forests were calculated. The results indicated that the area of bamboo communities is projected to expand by 17.94%-60.88% more than now by the end of the 21st century. We analyzed the energy balance between the dietary needs of giant pandas and the energy provided by bamboo. We predicted that bamboo communities from 2000 to 2150 could support the continuous growth of the giant panda population (6533 wild individuals by 2140-2150 in an ideal state in Sichuan province). However, the species diversity and carbon storage of bamboo forests face out-of-sync fluctuations, both temporally and spatially. This is a critical issue for subalpine forest ecosystem management under climate change. Therefore, we propose a dynamic conservation management framework for giant panda habitats across spatial and temporal scales. This framework aims to facilitate the adaptation of subalpine forest ecosystems to climate change. This innovative approach, which integrates climate change into the conservation strategy for endangered species, contributes a conservation perspective to global climate action, highlighting the interconnectedness of biodiversity preservation and climate mitigation.

Habitat connectivity drives panda recovery

Globally, the majority of habitat loss is irreversible, and most species will never recover their former ranges. We have learned a great deal about what leads to population decline and extinction, but less about recovery. The recently downlisted giant panda provides a unique opportunity to understand the mechanisms of species recovery. In our study, we estimate giant panda suitable habitats, population density, and gene flow across landscapes to fully investigate the direct and indirect ecological mechanisms underlying bold conservation strategies. We found that the Giant Panda National Survey has modestly but systematically underestimated population size. China's effort to mitigate anthropogenic disturbances was associated with increased panda population density through improving habitat quality and reducing habitat fragmentation. Enhanced landscape connectivity reduced inbreeding via gene flow but indirectly increased inbreeding temporarily due to high local panda density. Although the panda's recovery has been geographically uneven, we provide evidence for improving connectivity and gene flow resulting from conservation efforts. If these processes can be sustained and improved, the panda's path to recovery will be less encumbered by loss of genetic diversity, fostering hope that the present rate of recovery will not be stalled. Findings from this study will not only help guide future giant panda conservation management but also provide a model for how a more mechanistic examination of the genetic processes underlying species recovery can foster the development of more effective strategies for endangered species recovery.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on three Glires pests of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

BACKGROUND

The range of Glires is influenced by human activities and climate change. However, the extent to which human activities and environmental changes have contributed to this relationship remains unclear. We examined alterations in the distribution changes and driving factors of the Himalayan marmot, plateau pika, and plateau zokor on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and a geographical detector (Geodetector).

RESULTS

The MaxEnt model showed that the contribution rates of the human footprint index (HFI) to the distribution patterns of the three types of Glires were 46.70%, 58.70%, and 59.50%, respectively. The Geodetector results showed that the distribution pattern of the Himalayan marmot on the QTP was influenced by altitude and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The distribution patterns for plateau pikas and plateau zokors were driven by HFI and NDVI. Climate has played a substantial role in shaping suitable habitats for these three Glires on the QTP. Their suitable area is expected to decrease over the next 30-50 years, along with their niche breadth and overlap. Future suitable habitats for the three Glires tended to shift toward higher latitudes on the QTP.

CONCLUSION

These findings underscore the impacts of environmental and human factors on the distribution of the three Glires on the QTP. They have enhanced our understanding of the intricate relationships between Glires niches and environments. This can aid in identifying necessary interventions for developing effective early warning systems and prevention strategies to mitigate Glires infestations and plague epidemics on the QTP. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Distribution Pattern of Suitable Areas and Corridor Identification of Endangered Ephedra Species in China

The suitable habitat of endangered Ephedra species has been severely threatened and affected by climate change and anthropogenic activities; however, their migration trends and restoration strategies are still relatively understudied. In this study, we utilized the MaxEnt model to simulate the suitable habitats of five endangered Ephedra species in China under current and future climate scenarios. Additionally, we identified significant ecological corridors by incorporating the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model. Under the current climate scenario, the suitable area of Ephedra equisetina Bunge, Ephedra intermedia Schrenk ex Mey, Ephedra sinica Stapf, and Ephedra monosperma Gmel ex Mey comprised 16% of the area in China, while Ephedra rhytidosperma Pachom comprised only 0.05%. The distribution patterns of these five Ephedra species were primarily influenced by altitude, salinity, temperature, and precipitation. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable areas of E. equisetina, E. intermedia, and E. sinica are projected to expand, while that of E. monosperma is expected to contract. Notably, E. rhytidosperma will lose its suitable area in the future. Our identified ecological corridors showed that the first-level corridors encompassed a wider geographical expanse, incorporating E. equisetina, E. intermedia, E. sinica, and E. monosperma, while that of E. rhytidosperma exhibited a shorter length and covered fewer geographical areas. Overall, our study provides novel insights into identifying priority protected areas and protection strategies targeting endangered Ephedra species.

Research on the Changes in Distribution and Habitat Suitability of the Chinese Red Panda Population

The study of the dynamics of species habitat is of great significance for maintaining or adjusting the current habitat protection management strategy. However, the current research on the Chinese red panda's habitat is limited to the analysis of a single period, which makes it difficult to quantify the changes in its habitat on a temporal scale and greatly hinders the formulation of the overall protection and management strategies that are to be used for the Chinese red panda. This study simulated habitat suitability at different temporal scales to quantify the trend of changes in habitat quality and analyzed the reasons for the changes in habitat suitability in certain regions. The results showed that the overall suitability of the Chinese red panda's habitat increased and that the area of suitable habitats expanded. Suitable Chinese red panda habitats in the mountains of Qionglai (1662.73 km2), Daxiangling (230.30 km2), Xiaoxiangling (549.47 km2), and Liangshan (50.39 km2) increased by a total of 2452.89 km2. The suitability of habitats in the central part of the Liangshan Mountains has declined significantly, which is positively correlated with changes in temperature seasonality (BIO4, R = 0.18) and negatively correlated with changes in annual average temperature (BIO1, R = -0.03) as well as changes in the proportion of farmland (FARMLAND, R = -0.14). The local extinction of isolated populations of Chinese red pandas in the Minshan Mountains is the main factor leading to their distribution retreat rather than a decrease in habitat quality. The research results help us to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of conservation and management strategies for Chinese red pandas at different scales.

The Science Underlying Giant Panda Conservation Translocations

The giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is the flagship species of animal conservation worldwide, and the number of captive pandas reached 673 in 2021. According to the Fourth National Survey Report on the Giant Panda, there are 1864 wild pandas, segregated into 33 local populations, and 25 of these populations are too small to be self-sustaining. In addition to the conservation and restoration of panda habitats, conservation translocations, an approach that has been shown to be effective in slowing or reversing biodiversity loss, are highly desirable for panda conservation. The captive-bred panda population has grown rapidly, laying the foundation for releasing captive-bred pandas into the wild. This paper reviews the scientific advances in conservation translocations of pandas. Studies have shown that before translocation conservation programs are implemented, we should determine what factors are causing the depletion of the original population at the release site. The selection of suitable release sites and individuals will help to improve the survival rate of released individuals in the wild. Pre-release training and post-release monitoring are essential to ensure successful releases. We also see the great potential for increasing applications of Adaptive Management to improve the success of giant panda conservation translocation programs. This review provides theoretical guidance for improvement of the success rate in conservation translocations for captive pandas, and uses the panda as a model species to provide a global reference for the conservation translocations of rare and endangered species.

Priority planting area planning for cash crops under heavy metal pollution and climate change: A case study of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort

INTRODUCTION

Soil pollution by heavy metals and climate change pose substantial threats to the habitat suitability of cash crops. Discussing the suitability of cash crops in this context is necessary for the conservation and management of species. We developed a comprehensive evaluation system that is universally applicable to all plants stressed by heavy metal pollution.

METHODS

The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatial distribution of Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort within the study area (Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Chongqing) based on current and future climate conditions (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios). We established the current Cd pollution status in the study area using kriging interpolation and kernel density. Additionally, the three scenarios were used in prediction models to simulate future Cd pollution conditions based on current Cd pollution data. The current and future priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were determined by overlay analysis, and two levels of results were obtained.

RESULTS

The results revealed that the current first- and secondary-priority planting areas for L. chuanxiong were 2.06 ×10³ km² and 1.64 ×10⁴ km², respectively. Of these areas, the seven primary and twelve secondary counties for current L. chuanxiong cultivation should be given higher priority; these areas include Meishan, Qionglai, Pujiang, and other regions. Furthermore, all the priority zones based on the current and future scenarios were mainly concentrated on the Chengdu Plain, southeastern Sichuan and northern Chongqing. Future planning results indicated that Renshou, Pingwu, Meishan, Qionglai, Pengshan, and other regions are very important for L. chuanxiong planting, and a pessimistic scenario will negatively impact this potential planting. The spatial dynamics of priority areas in 2050 and 2070 clearly fluctuated under different prediction scenarios and were mainly distributed in northern Sichuan and western Chongqing.

DISCUSSION

Given these results, taking reasonable measures to replan and manage these areas is necessary. This study provides. not only a useful reference for the protection and cultivation of L. chuanxiong, but also a framework for analyzing other cash crops.

Assessment and spatial partitioning of ecosystem services importance in Giant Panda National Park: To provide targeted ecological protection

Giant Panda National Park is crucial for China's ecological security strategic pattern known as "two screens and three belts." The importance assessment and classification of ecosystem services in giant panda national parks has an important guiding role in the protection of giant panda national park ecosystems. In this study, we examined four indicators of habitat quality: carbon storage, water conservation, and soil and water conservation. Combined with data analysis were used to evaluate and classify the importance of ecosystem services in the study area. The results showed that: (1) the overall habitat quality index in the study area was relatively high, and the index was generally greater than 0.5. The total carbon storage was 60.5 × 106 t, and the highest carbon storage in the region was 16.9533 t. The area with the highest water conservation reached 715.275 mm. The total soil conservation was 2555.7 × 107 t. (2) From the perspective of spatial characteristics, the habitat quality in the study area presented a spatial distribution pattern of high-low from west to east. The carbon storage presented a spatial distribution pattern of high-low from east to west. The soil conservation presented a spatial pattern of decreasing from west to east, and the water conservation increased from west to east. (3) We divided the research into four levels of importance: The area of general importance in the study site accounted for 1017.58 km2 and was distributed in the northwest of the study site. The moderately important areas were distributed in the east of the study site, with an area of 1142.40 km2. The highly important areas were distributed in the west of the study site, totaling 2647.84 km2. Extremely important areas were distributed in the middle, with an area of 1451.32 km2. (4) The grid cell scale of the study area was used as the dataset to determine the weighting. This makes the weighting more objective and ensures that the spatial distribution of areas with different degrees of importance will be more accurate.

The effectiveness of a large protected area to conserve a global endemism hotspot may vanish in the face of climate and land-use changes

Endemic vertebrates are a crucial component of biodiversity, yet face disproportionally high extinction risk as climate and land-use changes drive habitat loss. Large protected areas are therefore deemed necessary to mitigate biodiversity loss. In 2021, China’s Giant Panda National Park (GPNP, 27,134 km2) was established in one of the global endemism hotspots. In this study we ask the question whether this large national park is able to conserve the many threatened endemic vertebrates occurring in the region in the face of climate and land-use changes, in order to assess the long-term effectiveness of the GPNP. We used species distribution modeling techniques to project the distributions of 40 threatened terrestrial (and freshwater) endemic vertebrates under land-use and climate change scenarios SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 in 2081–2100, and assessed the extent to which their distributions are covered by the GPNP, now and in the future. We found that by 2081–2100, two thirds of the threatened endemic vertebrates are predicted to lose part (15–79%, N = 4) of or (nearly) their entire (80–100% loss, N = 23) range under all three climate and land-use change scenarios. Consequently, fewer species are predicted to occur in the GPNP than at present. Our findings confirm the high vulnerability of threatened endemic species to climate and land-use changes, despite protected areas. Habitat loss due to climate and land-use changes elevate extinction risk of species in endemism hotspots across the globe. Urgent, widespread and intensified mitigation measures and adaptation measures are required at a landscape scale for effective conservation efforts in the future.

Landscape-scale giant panda conservation based on metapopulations within China's national park system

Historically, giant panda conservation in China has been compromised by disparate management of protected areas. It is thus crucial to address how giant panda populations can be managed cohesively on a landscape scale, an opportunity offered by China's newly established Giant Panda National Park. Here, we evaluated giant panda populations in a metapopulation context, based on range-wide data from the Fourth National Giant Panda Survey. We delineated metapopulations by geographic range, relative abundance, and relative density and assessed the extent of human disturbance each metapopulation faced. We found density-dependent and disturbance-influenced effects on habitat selection across metapopulations. We determined the main effects faced by each metapopulation regarding area sensitivity, population size, intraspecific competition, and disturbance. To enhance the landscape-scale conservation of giant pandas and various other wildlife across China's national park system, we propose that metapopulation management incorporates population status along with density-dependent and disturbance-related effects on habitat selection.

Identifying core habitats and corridors for giant pandas by combining multiscale random forest and connectivity analysis

Habitat loss and fragmentation are widely acknowledged as the main driver of the decline of giant panda populations. The Chinese government has made great efforts to protect this charming species and has made remarkable achievements, such as population growth and habitat expansion. However, habitat fragmentation has not been reversed. Protecting giant pandas in a large spatial extent needs to identify core habitat patches and corridors connecting them. This study used an equal-sampling multiscale random forest habitat model to predict a habitat suitability map for the giant panda. Then, we applied the resistant kernel method and factorial least-cost path analysis to identify core habitats connected by panda dispersal and corridors among panda occurrences, respectively. Finally, we evaluated the effectiveness of current protected areas in representing core habitats and corridors. Our results showed high scale dependence of giant panda habitat selection. Giant pandas strongly respond to bamboo percentage and elevation at a relatively fine scale (1 km), whereas they respond to anthropogenic factors at a coarse scale (≥2 km). Dispersal ability has significant effects on core habitats extent and population fragmentation evaluation. Under medium and high dispersal ability scenarios (12,000 and 20,000 cost units), most giant panda habitats in the Qionglai mountain are predicted to be well connected by dispersal. The proportion of core habitats covered by protected areas varied between 38% and 43% under different dispersal ability scenarios, highlighting significant gaps in the protected area network. Similarly, only 43% of corridors that connect giant panda occurrences were protected. Our results can provide crucial information for conservation managers to develop wise strategies to safeguard the long-term viability of the giant panda population.