Improving preparedness for the next flu pandemic

Epidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era

COVID-19 highlighted modeling as a cornerstone of pandemic response. But it also revealed that current models may not fully exploit the high-resolution data on disease progression, epidemic surveillance and host behavior, now available. Take the epidemic threshold, which quantifies the spreading risk throughout epidemic emergence, mitigation, and control. Its use requires oversimplifying either disease or host contact dynamics. We introduce the epidemic graph diagrams to overcome this by computing the epidemic threshold directly from arbitrarily complex data on contacts, disease and interventions. A grammar of diagram operations allows to decompose, compare, simplify models with computational efficiency, extracting theoretical understanding. We use the diagrams to explain the emergence of resistant influenza variants in the 2007-2008 season, and demonstrate that neglecting non-infectious prodromic stages of sexually transmitted infections biases the predicted epidemic risk, compromising control. The diagrams are general, and improve our capacity to respond to present and future public health challenges.

Self-assembled multiepitope nanovaccine based on NoV P particles induces effective and lasting protection against H3N2 influenza virus

Current seasonal influenza vaccines confer only limited coverage of virus strains due to the frequent genetic and antigenic variability of influenza virus (IV). Epitope vaccines that accurately target conserved domains provide a promising approach to increase the breadth of protection; however, poor immunogenicity greatly hinders their application. The protruding (P) domain of the norovirus (NoV), which can self-assemble into a 24-mer particle called the NoV P particle, offers an ideal antigen presentation platform. In this study, a multiepitope nanovaccine displaying influenza epitopes (HMN-PP) was constructed based on the NoV P particle nanoplatform. Large amounts of HMN-PP were easily expressed in Escherichia coli in soluble form. Animal experiments showed that the adjuvanted HMN-PP nanovaccine induced epitope-specific antibodies and haemagglutinin (HA)-specific neutralizing antibodies, and the antibodies could persist for at least three months after the last immunization. Furthermore, HMN-PP induced matrix protein 2 extracellular domain (M2e)-specific antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity, CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses, and a nucleoprotein (NP)-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) response. These results indicated that the combination of a multiepitope vaccine and self-assembled NoV P particles may be an ideal and effective vaccine strategy for highly variable viruses such as IV and SARS-CoV-2.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s12274-023-5395-6.

Human Respiratory Infections in Nigeria: Influenza and the Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

The increasing outbreak of zoonotic diseases presents challenging times for nations and calls for a renewed effort to disrupt the chain of events that precede it. Nigeria's response to the 2006 bird flu provided a platform for outbreak response, yet it was not its first experience with Influenza. This study describes the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on Influenza surveillance and, conversely, while the 1918 Influenza pandemic remains the most devastating (500,000 deaths in 18 million population) in Nigeria, the emergence of SARS CoV-2 presented renewed opportunities for the development of vaccines with novel technology, co-infection studies outcome, and challenges globally. Although the public health Intervention and strategies left some positive outcomes for other viruses, Nigeria and Africa's preparation against the next pandemic may involve prioritizing a combination of technology, socioeconomic growth, and active surveillance in the spirit of One Health.

Flu-IV score: a predictive tool for assessing the risk of invasive mechanical ventilation in patients with influenza-related pneumonia

Background

The need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is linked to significant morbidity and mortality in patients with influenza-related pneumonia (Flu-p). We aimed to develop an assessment tool to predict IMV among Flu-p patients within 14 days of admission.

Methods

In total, 1107 Flu-p patients from five teaching hospitals were retrospectively enrolled from January 2012 to December 2019, including 895 patients in the derivation cohort and 212 patients in the validation cohort. The predictive model was established based on independent risk factors for IMV in the Flu-p patients from the derivation cohort.

Results

Overall, 10.6% (117/1107) of patients underwent IMV within 14 days of admission. Multivariate regression analyses revealed that the following factors were associated with IMV: early neuraminidase inhibitor use (− 3 points), lymphocytes < 0.8 × 10⁹/L (1 point), multi-lobar infiltrates (1 point), systemic corticosteroid use (1 point), age ≥ 65 years old (1 points), PaO₂/FiO₂ < 300 mmHg (2 points), respiratory rate ≥ 30 breaths/min (3 points), and arterial PH < 7.35 (4 points). A total score of five points was used to identify patients at risk of IMV. This model had a sensitivity of 85.5%, a specificity of 88.8%, and exhibited better predictive performance than the ROX index (AUROC = 0.909 vs. 0.594, p = 0.004), modified ROX index (AUROC = 0.909 vs. 0.633, p = 0.012), and HACOR scale (AUROC = 0.909 vs. 0.622, p < 0.001) using the validation cohort.

Conclusions

Flu-IV score is a valuable prediction rule for 14-day IMV rates in Flu-p patients. However, it should be validated in a prospective study before implementation.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-022-01833-2.

COVID-19: Lessons for the climate change emergency

The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak pandemic is now a global crisis. It has caused 9+ million confirmed cases and 400,000+ deaths at the time of writing and triggered unprecedented preventative measures that have confined a substantial portion of the global population and established 'social distancing' as a new global behavioral norm. The COVID-19 crisis has affected all aspects of everyday life and work, and heavily impacted the global economy. This crisis also offers unprecedented insights into how the global climate crisis may be managed, as there are many parallels between the COVID-19 crisis and what we expect from the imminent global climate emergency. Reflecting upon the challenges of today's crisis may help us better prepare for the future. Here we compile a list, by no means comprehensive, of the similarities and differences between the two crises, and the lessons we can learn from them: (i) High momentum trends, (ii) Irreversible changes, (iii) Social and spatial inequality, (iv) Weakening of international solidarity, and (v) Less costly to prevent than to cure.

The impact of socioeconomic status on 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection

Socioeconomic status (SES) impacts outcome in a number of diseases. Our aim was to compare the outcome of hospitalized coronavirus disease 219 (COVID-19) patients in low and high SES group. Prospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 in three acute hospitals. Electronic case notes were analyzed for baseline characteristics and admission investigations. Scottish index for multiple deprivation (SIMD) was used to divide patients into two groups: more deprived (SIMD 1-5) and less deprived (SIMD 6-10) and results compared. Poor outcome was defined as either need for intubation and/or death. One hundred and seventy-three patients were identified, one was excluded. One hundred and eight (62.8%) were males, mean age was 68.5 ± 14.7 years. Commonest comorbidity was hypertension 87 (50.6%). One hundred and seventeen (68.0%) patients were in more deprived group. Baseline characteristics, admission blood profile and reason for admission were evenly matched in both groups. Outcomes were comparable in both groups: transfer to critical care (27.4% vs 27.3%; P = .991), intubation (18.8% vs 20.2%; P = .853), 30-day all-cause mortality (19.7% vs 14.5%; P = .416) and overall poor outcome (30.8% vs 30.9%; P = .985). Median time to discharge was 7 days longer (17 vs 10 days; P = .018) and median time to death was 4.5 days longer in more deprived group (17 vs 12.5 days; P = .388). Contrary to recent literature on COVID-19 in other geographical areas, our study suggests that the SES does not have any impact on outcome of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, however it negatively impacts length of stay.

Addressing challenges for clinical research responses to emerging epidemics and pandemics: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Major infectious disease outbreaks are a constant threat to human health. Clinical research responses to outbreaks generate evidence to improve outcomes and outbreak control. Experiences from previous epidemics have identified multiple challenges to undertaking timely clinical research responses. This scoping review is a systematic appraisal of political, economic, administrative, regulatory, logistical, ethical and social (PEARLES) challenges to clinical research responses to emergency epidemics and solutions identified to address these.

METHODS

A scoping review. We searched six databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO, Scopus and Epistemonikos) for articles published from 2008 to July 2018. We included publications reporting PEARLES challenges to clinical research responses to emerging epidemics and pandemics and solutions identified to address these. Two reviewers screened articles for inclusion, extracted and analysed the data.

RESULTS

Of 2678 articles screened, 76 were included. Most presented data relating to the 2014-2016 Ebola virus outbreak or the H1N1 outbreak in 2009. The articles related to clinical research responses in Africa (n = 37), Europe (n = 8), North America (n = 5), Latin America and the Caribbean (n = 3) and Asia (n = 1) and/or globally (n = 22). A wide range of solutions to PEARLES challenges was presented, including a need to strengthen global collaborations and coordination at all levels and develop pre-approved protocols and equitable frameworks, protocols and standards for emergencies. Clinical trial networks and expedited funding and approvals were some solutions implemented. National ownership and community engagement from the outset were a key enabler for delivery. Despite the wide range of recommended solutions, none had been formally evaluated.

CONCLUSIONS

To strengthen global preparedness and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and future epidemics, identified solutions for rapid clinical research deployment, delivery, and dissemination must be implemented. Improvements are urgently needed to strengthen collaborations, funding mechanisms, global and national research capacity and capability, targeting regions vulnerable to epidemics and pandemics. Solutions need to be flexible to allow timely adaptations to context, and research led by governments of affected regions. Research communities globally need to evaluate their activities and incorporate lessons learnt to refine and rehearse collaborative outbreak response plans in between epidemics.

Visitation restrictions: is it right and how do we support families in the NICU during COVID-19?

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has largely not clinically affected infants in neonatal intensive care units around the globe, it has affected how care is provided. Most hospitals, including their NICUs, have significantly reduced parental and family visitation privileges. From an ethical perspective, this restriction of parental visitation in settings where infectious risk is difficult to understand. No matter what the right thing to do is, NICUs are currently having to support families of their patients via different mechanisms. In this perspective, we discuss ways NICUs can support parents and families when they are home and when they are in the NICU as well as provide infants the support needed when family members are not able to visit.

An Evaluation Tool for National-Level Pandemic Influenza Planning

The historical threat of pandemic influenza and the circulation of novel influenza viruses have led countries to strengthen their efforts in pandemic influenza preparedness planning. A cornerstone of these efforts is the creation of a comprehensive national plan that addresses all of the capacities required to prevent, detect, and respond to novel influenza outbreaks. In 2017 and 2018, the World Health Organization issued updated guidance for national pandemic planning efforts, based on lessons learned from the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) outbreak, the International Health Regulations (World Health Organization, 2005a), and other developments in health security. We have created a tool to assess national‐level plans based on these updated guidelines. This tool will allow for countries to identify both strengths and weaknesses in their national plans, identify capacities and sectors that require improvement, and to help frame the updating or drafting of plans in line with the most updated guidance.