Industrial-era decline in subarctic Atlantic productivity

Ubiquitous acceleration in Greenland Ice Sheet calving from 1985 to 2022

Nearly every glacier in Greenland has thinned or retreated over the past few decades1-4, leading to glacier acceleration, increased rates of sea-level rise and climate impacts around the globe5-9. To understand how calving-front retreat has affected the ice-mass balance of Greenland, we combine 236,328 manually derived and AI-derived observations of glacier terminus positions collected from 1985 to 2022 and generate a 120-m-resolution mask defining the ice-sheet extent every month for nearly four decades. Here we show that, since 1985, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has lost 5,091 ± 72 km2 of area, corresponding to 1,034 ± 120 Gt of ice lost to retreat. Our results indicate that, by neglecting calving-front retreat, current consensus estimates of ice-sheet mass balance4,9 have underestimated recent mass loss from Greenland by as much as 20%. The mass loss we report has had minimal direct impact on global sea level but is sufficient to affect ocean circulation and the distribution of heat energy around the globe10-12. On seasonal timescales, Greenland loses 193 ± 25 km2 (63 ± 6 Gt) of ice to retreat each year from a maximum extent in May to a minimum between September and October. We find that multidecadal retreat is highly correlated with the magnitude of seasonal advance and retreat of each glacier, meaning that terminus-position variability on seasonal timescales can serve as an indicator of glacier sensitivity to longer-term climate change.

Can we trust projections of AMOC weakening based on climate models that cannot reproduce the past?

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial element of the Earth's climate system, is projected to weaken over the course of the twenty-first century which could have far reaching consequences for the occurrence of extreme weather events, regional sea level rise, monsoon regions and the marine ecosystem. The latest IPCC report puts the likelihood of such a weakening as 'very likely'. As our confidence in future climate projections depends largely on the ability to model the past climate, we take an in-depth look at the difference in the twentieth century evolution of the AMOC based on observational data (including direct observations and various proxy data) and model data from climate model ensembles. We show that both the magnitude of the trend in the AMOC over different time periods and often even the sign of the trend differs between observations and climate model ensemble mean, with the magnitude of the trend difference becoming even greater when looking at the CMIP6 ensemble compared to CMIP5. We discuss possible reasons for this observation-model discrepancy and question what it means to have higher confidence in future projections than historical reproductions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Atlantic overturning: new observations and challenges'.

Industrial-era decline in Arctic methanesulfonic acid is offset by increased biogenic sulfate aerosol

Marine phytoplankton are primary producers in ocean ecosystems and emit dimethyl sulfide (DMS) into the atmosphere. DMS emissions are the largest biological source of atmospheric sulfur and are one of the largest uncertainties in global climate modeling. DMS is oxidized to methanesulfonic acid (MSA), sulfur dioxide, and hydroperoxymethyl thioformate, all of which can be oxidized to sulfate. Ice core records of MSA are used to investigate past DMS emissions but rely on the implicit assumption that the relative yield of oxidation products from DMS remains constant. However, this assumption is uncertain because there are no long-term records that compare MSA to other DMS oxidation products. Here, we share the first long-term record of both MSA and DMS-derived biogenic sulfate concentration in Greenland ice core samples from 1200 to 2006 CE. While MSA declines on average by 0.2 µg S kg-1 over the industrial era, biogenic sulfate from DMS increases by 0.8 µg S kg-1. This increasing biogenic sulfate contradicts previous assertions of declining North Atlantic primary productivity inferred from decreasing MSA concentrations in Greenland ice cores over the industrial era. The changing ratio of MSA to biogenic sulfate suggests that trends in MSA could be caused by time-varying atmospheric chemistry and that MSA concentrations alone should not be used to infer past primary productivity.

Mediterranean Mercury Assessment 2022: An Updated Budget, Health Consequences, and Research Perspectives

Mercury (Hg) and especially its methylated species (MeHg) are toxic chemicals that contaminate humans via the consumption of seafood. The most recent UNEP Global Mercury Assessment stressed that Mediterranean populations have higher Hg levels than people elsewhere in Europe. The present Critical Review updates current knowledge on the sources, biogeochemical cycling, and mass balance of Hg in the Mediterranean and identifies perspectives for future research especially in the context of global change. Concentrations of Hg in the Western Mediterranean average 0.86 ± 0.27 pmol L^-1 in the upper water layer and 1.02 ± 0.12 pmol L^-1 in intermediate and deep waters. In the Eastern Mediterranean, Hg measurements are in the same range but are too few to determine any consistent oceanographical pattern. The Mediterranean waters have a high methylation capacity, with MeHg representing up to 86% of the total Hg, and constitute a source of MeHg for the adjacent North Atlantic Ocean. The highest MeHg concentrations are associated with low oxygen water masses, suggesting a microbiological control on Hg methylation, consistent with the identification of hgcA-like genes in Mediterranean waters. MeHg concentrations are twice as high in the waters of the Western Basin compared to the ultra-oligotrophic Eastern Basin waters. This difference appears to be transferred through the food webs and the Hg content in predators to be ultimately controlled by MeHg concentrations of the waters of their foraging zones. Many Mediterranean top-predatory fish still exceed European Union regulatory Hg thresholds. This emphasizes the necessity of monitoring the exposure of Mediterranean populations, to formulate adequate mitigation strategies and recommendations, without advising against seafood consumption. This review also points out other insufficiencies of knowledge of Hg cycling in the Mediterranean Sea, including temporal variations in air-sea exchange, hydrothermal and cold seep inputs, point sources, submarine groundwater discharge, and exchanges between margins and the open sea. Future assessment of global change impacts under the Minamata Convention Hg policy requires long-term observations and dedicated high-resolution Earth System Models for the Mediterranean region.

Climate change and biospheric output

Large changes in global ecosystem productivity are set in motion by carbon dioxide rise.

Rapid cloud removal of dimethyl sulfide oxidation products limits SO2 and cloud condensation nuclei production in the marine atmosphere

Oceans emit large quantities of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) to the marine atmosphere. The oxidation of DMS leads to the formation and growth of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) with consequent effects on Earth's radiation balance and climate. The quantitative assessment of the impact of DMS emissions on CCN concentrations necessitates a detailed description of the oxidation of DMS in the presence of existing aerosol particles and clouds. In the unpolluted marine atmosphere, DMS is efficiently oxidized to hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF), a stable intermediate in the chemical trajectory toward sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and ultimately sulfate aerosol. Using direct airborne flux measurements, we demonstrate that the irreversible loss of HPMTF to clouds in the marine boundary layer determines the HPMTF lifetime (τ _HPMTF < 2 h) and terminates DMS oxidation to SO₂ When accounting for HPMTF cloud loss in a global chemical transport model, we show that SO₂ production from DMS is reduced by 35% globally and near-surface (0 to 3 km) SO₂ concentrations over the ocean are lowered by 24%. This large, previously unconsidered loss process for volatile sulfur accelerates the timescale for the conversion of DMS to sulfate while limiting new particle formation in the marine atmosphere and changing the dynamics of aerosol growth. This loss process potentially reduces the spatial scale over which DMS emissions contribute to aerosol production and growth and weakens the link between DMS emission and marine CCN production with subsequent implications for cloud formation, radiative forcing, and climate.

Omega-3 nutraceuticals, climate change and threats to the environment: The cases of Antarctic krill and Calanus finmarchicus

The nutraceutical market for EPA (eicosapentaenoic acid) and DHA (docosahexaenoic acid) is promoting fishing for Euphasia superba (Antarctic krill) in the Southern Ocean and Calanus finmarchicus in Norwegian waters. This industry argues that these species are underexploited, but they are essential in their ecosystems, and climate change is altering their geographical distribution. In this perspective, we advocate the cessation of fishing for these species to produce nutraceuticals with EPA and DHA. We argue that this is possible because, contrary to what this industry promotes, the benefits of these fatty acids only seem significant to specific population groups, and not for the general population. Next, we explain that this is desirable because there is evidence that these fisheries may interact with the impact of climate change. Greener sources of EPA and DHA are already available on the market, and their reasonable use would ease pressure on the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems.

Synergistic impacts of global warming and thermohaline circulation collapse on amphibians

Impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity are a prominent area of research in climate change. However, little is known about the effects of abrupt climate change and climate catastrophes on them. The probability of occurrence of such events is largely unknown but the associated risks could be large enough to influence global climate policy. Amphibians are indicators of ecosystems’ health and particularly sensitive to novel climate conditions. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations, we present a global assessment of the effects of unabated global warming and a collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the distribution of 2509 amphibian species across six biogeographical realms and extinction risk categories. Global warming impacts are severe and strongly enhanced by additional and substantial AMOC weakening, showing tipping point behavior for many amphibian species. Further declines in climatically suitable areas are projected across multiple clades, and biogeographical regions. Species loss in regional assemblages is extensive across regions, with Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions being most affected. Results underline the need to expand existing knowledge about the consequences of climate catastrophes on human and natural systems to properly assess the risks of unabated warming and the benefits of active mitigation strategies.

Julián Velasco et al. use climate model simulations to show how the collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and unabated global warming under the RCP 8.5 scenario affect the global distribution of 2509 amphibian species. These results show severe and synergistic impacts of global warming, with particularly strong effects shown in the Neotropical, Nearctic and Palearctic regions.

Bio-optical evidence for increasing Phaeocystis dominance in the Barents Sea

Increasing contributions of prymnesiophytes such as Phaeocystis pouchetii and Emiliania huxleyi to Barents Sea (BS) phytoplankton production have been suggested based on in situ observations of phytoplankton community composition, but the scattered and discontinuous nature of these records confounds simple inference of community change or its relationship to salient environmental variables. However, provided that meaningful assessments of phytoplankton community composition can be inferred based on their optical characteristics, ocean-colour records offer a potential means to develop a synthesis between sporadic in situ observations. Existing remote-sensing algorithms to retrieve phytoplankton functional types based on chlorophyll-a (chl-a) concentration or indices of pigment packaging may, however, fail to distinguish Phaeocystis from other blooms of phytoplankton with high pigment packaging, such as diatoms. We develop a novel algorithm to distinguish major phytoplankton functional types in the BS and apply it to the MODIS-Aqua ocean-colour record, to study changes in the composition of BS phytoplankton blooms in July, between 2002 and 2018, creating time series of the spatial distribution and intensity of coccolithophore, diatom and Phaeocystis blooms. We confirm a north-eastward expansion in coccolithophore bloom distribution, identified in previous studies, and suggest an inferred increase in chl-a concentrations, reported by previous researchers, may be partly explained by increasing frequencies of Phaeocystis blooms. This article is part of the theme issue 'The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning'.

Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming

Earth system models (ESMs) project that global warming suppresses biological productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean as increasing ocean surface buoyancy suppresses two physical drivers of nutrient supply: vertical mixing and meridional circulation. However, the quantitative sensitivity of productivity to surface buoyancy is uncertain and the relative importance of the physical drivers is unknown. Here, we present a simple predictive theory of how mixing, circulation, and productivity respond to increasing surface buoyancy in 21st-century global warming scenarios. With parameters constrained by observations, the theory suggests that the reduced northward nutrient transport, owing to a slower ocean circulation, explains the majority of the reduced productivity in a warmer climate. The theory also informs present-day biases in a set of ESM simulations as well as the physical underpinnings of their 21st-century projections. Hence, this theoretical understanding can facilitate the development of improved 21st-century projections of marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems.

Warming and CO2 effects under oligotrophication on temperate phytoplankton communities

Eutrophication, global warming, and rising carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels are the three most prevalent pressures impacting the biosphere. Despite their individual effects are well-known, it remains untested how oligotrophication (i.e. nutrients reduction) can alter the planktonic community responses to warming and elevated CO₂ levels. Here, we performed an indoor mesocosm experiment to investigate the warming × CO₂ interaction under a nutrient reduction scenario (40%) mediated by an in-lake management strategy (i.e. addition of a commercial solid-phase phosphorus sorbent -Phoslock®) on a natural freshwater plankton community. Biomass production increased under warming × CO₂ relative to present-day conditions; however, a Phoslock®-mediated oligotrophication reduced such values by 30-70%. Conversely, the warming × CO₂ × oligotrophication interaction stimulated the photosynthesis by 20% compared to ambient nutrient conditions, and matched with higher resource use efficiency (RUE) and nutrient demand. Surprisingly, at a group level, we found that the multi-stressors scenario increased the photosynthesis in eukaryotes by 25%, but greatly impaired in cyanobacteria (ca. -25%). This higher cyanobacterial sensitivity was coupled with a reduced light harvesting efficiency and compensation point. Since Phoslock®-induced oligotrophication unmasked a strong negative warming × CO₂ effect on cyanobacteria, it becomes crucial to understand how the interplay between climate change and nutrient abatement actions may alter the, ecosystems functioning. With an integrative understanding of these processes, policy makers will design more appropriate management strategies to improve the ecological status of aquatic ecosystems without compromising their ecological attributes and functioning.

A 300-Year High-Resolution Greenland Ice Record of Large-Scale Atmospheric Pollution by Arsenic in the Northern Hemisphere

We report the first high-resolution record of arsenic (As) observed in Greenland snow and ice for the periods 1711-1970 and 2003-2009 AD. The results show well-defined large-scale atmospheric pollution by this toxic element in the northern hemisphere, beginning as early as the 18th century. The most striking feature is an abrupt, unprecedented enrichment factor (EF) peak in the late 1890s, with an ∼30-fold increase in the mean value above the Holocene natural level. Highly enriched As was evident until the late 1910s; a sharp decline was observed after the First World War, reaching a minimum in the early 1930s during the Great Depression. A subsequent increase lasted until the mid-1950s, before decreasing again. Comparisons between the observed variations and Cu smelting data indicate that Cu smelting in Europe and North America was the likely source of early anthropogenic As in Greenland. Despite a significant reduction of ∼80% in concentration and ∼60% in EF from the 1950s to the 2000s, more than 80% of present-day As in Greenland is of anthropogenic origin, probably due to increasing As emissions from coal combustion in China. This highlights the demand for the implementation of national and international environmental regulations to further reduce As emissions.

Decadal increase in Arctic dimethylsulfide emission

Dimethylsulfide (DMS), a gas produced by marine microbial food webs, promotes aerosol formation in pristine atmospheres, altering cloud radiative forcing and precipitation. Recent studies suggest that DMS controls aerosol formation in the summertime Arctic atmosphere and call for an assessment of pan-Arctic DMS emission (EDMS) in a context of dramatic ecosystem changes. Using a remote sensing algorithm, we show that summertime EDMS from ice-free waters increased at a mean rate of 13.3 ± 6.7 Gg S decade^-1 (∼33% decade^-1) north of 70°N between 1998 and 2016. This trend, mostly explained by the reduction in sea-ice extent, is consistent with independent atmospheric measurements showing an increasing trend of methane sulfonic acid, a DMS oxidation product. Extrapolation to an ice-free Arctic summer could imply a 2.4-fold (±1.2) increase in EDMS compared to present emission. However, unexpected regime shifts in Arctic geo- and ecosystems could result in future EDMS departure from the predicted range. Superimposed on the positive trend, EDMS shows substantial interannual changes and nonmonotonic multiyear trends, reflecting the interplay between physical forcing, ice retreat patterns, and phytoplankton productivity. Our results provide key constraints to determine whether increasing marine sulfur emissions, and resulting aerosol-cloud interactions, will moderate or accelerate Arctic warming in the context of sea-ice retreat and increasing low-level cloud cover.