Two-million-year-old snapshots of atmospheric gases from Antarctic ice

Mid-Pleistocene climate transition triggered by Antarctic Ice Sheet growth

Despite extensive investigation, the nature and causes of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition remain enigmatic. In this work, we assess its linkage to asynchronous development of bipolar ice sheets by synthesizing Pleistocene mid- to high-latitude proxy records linked to hemispheric ice sheet evolution. Our results indicate substantial growth of the Antarctic Ice Sheets (AISs) at 2.0 to 1.25 million years ago, preceding the rapid expansion of Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets after ~1.25 million years ago. Proxy-model comparisons suggest that AIS and associated Southern Ocean sea ice expansion can induce northern high-latitude cooling and enhanced moisture transport to the Northern Hemisphere, thus triggering the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. The dynamic processes involved are crucial for assessing modern global warming that is already inducing asynchronous bipolar melting of ice sheets.

Orbital- and millennial-scale Asian winter monsoon variability across the Pliocene-Pleistocene glacial intensification

Intensification of northern hemisphere glaciation (iNHG), ~2.7 million years ago (Ma), led to establishment of the Pleistocene to present-day bipolar icehouse state. Here we document evolution of orbital- and millennial-scale Asian winter monsoon (AWM) variability across the iNHG using a palaeomagnetically dated centennial-resolution grain size record between 3.6 and 1.9 Ma from a previously undescribed loess-palaeosol/red clay section on the central Chinese Loess Plateau. We find that the late Pliocene-early Pleistocene AWM was characterized by combined 41-kyr and ~100-kyr cycles, in response to ice volume and atmospheric CO2 forcing. Northern hemisphere ice sheet expansion, which was accompanied by an atmospheric CO2 concentration decline, substantially increased glacial AWM intensity  and its orbitally oscillating amplitudes across the iNHG. Superposed on orbital variability, we find that millennial AWM intensity fluctuations persisted during both the warmer (higher-CO2) late Pliocene and colder (lower-CO2) early Pleistocene, in response to both external astronomical forcing and internal climate dynamics.

Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years

Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Subglacial precipitates record Antarctic ice sheet response to late Pleistocene millennial climate cycles

Ice cores and offshore sedimentary records demonstrate enhanced ice loss along Antarctic coastal margins during millennial-scale warm intervals within the last glacial termination. However, the distal location and short temporal coverage of these records leads to uncertainty in both the spatial footprint of ice loss, and whether millennial-scale ice response occurs outside of glacial terminations. Here we present a >100kyr archive of periodic transitions in subglacial precipitate mineralogy that are synchronous with Late Pleistocene millennial-scale climate cycles. Geochemical and geochronologic data provide evidence for opal formation during cold periods via cryoconcentration of subglacial brine, and calcite formation during warm periods through the addition of subglacial meltwater originating from the ice sheet interior. These freeze-flush cycles represent cyclic changes in subglacial hydrologic-connectivity driven by ice sheet velocity fluctuations. Our findings imply that oscillating Southern Ocean temperatures drive a dynamic response in the Antarctic ice sheet on millennial timescales, regardless of the background climate state.

Piccione et al find evidence for Antarctic ice sheet instability driven by millennial cycles in Southern Ocean temperature, providing clues for the mechanisms that link climate change and rapid Antarctic ice loss events.

Changes in North Atlantic deep-water oxygenation across the Middle Pleistocene Transition

The oxygen concentrations of oceanic deep-water and atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) are intrinsically linked through organic carbon remineralization and storage as dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep sea. We present a high-resolution reconstruction of relative changes in oxygen concentration in the deep North Atlantic for the past 1.5 million years using the carbon isotope gradient between epifaunal and infaunal benthic foraminifera species as a proxy for paleo-oxygen. We report a significant (>40 micromole per kilogram) reduction in glacial Atlantic deep-water oxygenation at ~960 thousand to 900 thousand years ago that coincided with increased continental ice volume and a major change in ocean thermohaline circulation. Paleo-oxygen results support a scenario of decreasing deep-water oxygen concentrations, increased respired carbon storage, and a reduction in glacial pCO₂ across the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Marine anoxia linked to abrupt global warming during Earth's penultimate icehouse

Massive carbon (C) release with abrupt warming has occurred repeatedly during greenhouse states, and these events have driven episodes of ocean deoxygenation and extinction. Records from these paleo events, coupled with biogeochemical modeling, provide clear evidence that with continued warming, the modern oceans will experience substantial deoxygenation. There are, however, few constraints from the geologic record on the effects of rapid warming under icehouse conditions. We document a C-cycle perturbation that occurred under an Earth system state experiencing recurrent glaciation. A suite of proxies suggests increased seafloor anoxia during this event in step with abrupt increase in CO₂ partial pressure and a biodiversity nadir. Warming-mediated increases in marine anoxia may be more pronounced in a glaciated versus unglaciated climate state.

Piecing together the history of carbon (C) perturbation events throughout Earth’s history has provided key insights into how the Earth system responds to abrupt warming. Previous studies, however, focused on short-term warming events that were superimposed on longer-term greenhouse climate states. Here, we present an integrated proxy (C and uranium [U] isotopes and paleo CO₂) and multicomponent modeling approach to investigate an abrupt C perturbation and global warming event (∼304 Ma) that occurred during a paleo-glacial state. We report pronounced negative C and U isotopic excursions coincident with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ partial pressure and a biodiversity nadir. The isotopic excursions can be linked to an injection of ∼9,000 Gt of organic matter–derived C over ∼300 kyr and to near 20% of areal extent of seafloor anoxia. Earth system modeling indicates that widespread anoxic conditions can be linked to enhanced thermocline stratification and increased nutrient fluxes during this global warming within an icehouse.

Antiphased dust deposition and productivity in the Antarctic Zone over 1.5 million years

The Southern Ocean paleoceanography provides key insights into how iron fertilization and oceanic productivity developed through Pleistocene ice-ages and their role in influencing the carbon cycle. We report a high-resolution record of dust deposition and ocean productivity for the Antarctic Zone, close to the main dust source, Patagonia. Our deep-ocean records cover the last 1.5 Ma, thus doubling that from Antarctic ice-cores. We find a 5 to 15-fold increase in dust deposition during glacials and a 2 to 5-fold increase in biogenic silica deposition, reflecting higher ocean productivity during interglacials. This antiphasing persisted throughout the last 25 glacial cycles. Dust deposition became more pronounced across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) in the Southern Hemisphere, with an abrupt shift suggesting more severe glaciations since ~0.9 Ma. Productivity was intermediate pre-MPT, lowest during the MPT and highest since 0.4 Ma. Generally, glacials experienced extended sea-ice cover, reduced bottom-water export and Weddell Gyre dynamics, which helped lower atmospheric CO₂ levels.

Ice core evidence for atmospheric oxygen decline since the Mid-Pleistocene transition

The history of atmospheric oxygen (PO₂) and the processes that act to regulate it remain enigmatic because of difficulties in quantitative reconstructions using indirect proxies. Here, we extend the ice-core record of PO₂ using 1.5-million-year-old (Ma) discontinuous ice samples drilled from Allan Hills Blue Ice Area, East Antarctica. No statistically significant difference exists in PO₂ between samples at 1.5 Ma and 810 thousand years (ka), suggesting that the Late-Pleistocene imbalance in O₂ sources and sinks began around the time of the transition from 40- to 100-ka glacial cycles in the Mid-Pleistocene between ~1.2 Ma and 700 ka. The absence of a coeval secular increase in atmospheric CO₂ over the past ~1 Ma requires negative feedback mechanisms such as Pco₂-dependent silicate weathering. Fast processes must also act to suppress the immediate Pco₂ increase because of the imbalance in O₂ sinks over sources beginning in the Mid-Pleistocene.

Sea level and deep-sea temperature reconstructions suggest quasi-stable states and critical transitions over the past 40 million years

Sea level and deep-sea temperature variations are key indicators of global climate changes. For continuous records over millions of years, deep-sea carbonate microfossil-based δ¹⁸O (δ_c) records are indispensable because they reflect changes in both deep-sea temperature and seawater δ¹⁸O (δ_w); the latter are related to ice volume and, thus, to sea level changes. Deep-sea temperature is usually resolved using elemental ratios in the same benthic microfossil shells used for δ_c, with linear scaling of residual δ_w to sea level changes. Uncertainties are large and the linear-scaling assumption remains untested. Here, we present a new process-based approach to assess relationships between changes in sea level, mean ice sheet δ¹⁸O, and both deep-sea δ_w and temperature and find distinct nonlinearity between sea level and δ_w changes. Application to δ_c records over the past 40 million years suggests that Earth's climate system has complex dynamical behavior, with threshold-like adjustments (critical transitions) that separate quasi-stable deep-sea temperature and ice-volume states.

Increasing Pleistocene permafrost persistence and carbon cycle conundrums inferred from Canadian speleothems

Permafrost carbon represents a potentially powerful amplifier of climate change, but little is known about permafrost sensitivity and associated carbon cycling during past warm intervals. We reconstruct permafrost history in western Canada during Pleistocene interglacials from 130 uranium-thorium ages on 72 speleothems, cave deposits that only accumulate with deep ground thaw. We infer that permafrost thaw extended to the high Arctic during one or more periods between ~1.5 million and 0.5 million years ago but has been limited to the sub-Arctic since 400,000 years ago. Our Canadian speleothem growth history closely parallels an analogous reconstruction from Siberia, suggesting that this shift toward more stable permafrost across the Pleistocene may have been Arctic-wide. In contrast, interglacial greenhouse gas concentrations were relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene, suggesting that either permafrost thaw did not trigger substantial carbon release to the atmosphere or it was offset by carbon uptake elsewhere on glacial-interglacial time scales.

An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Interglacials of the Quaternary defined by northern hemispheric land ice distribution outside of Greenland

Glacial/interglacial dynamics during the Quaternary were suggested to be mainly driven by obliquity (41-kyr periodicity), including irregularities during the last 1 Myr that resulted in on average 100-kyr cycles. Here, we investigate this so-called Mid-Pleistocene Transition via model-based deconvolution of benthic δ¹⁸O, redefining interglacials by lack of substantial northern hemispheric land ice outside of Greenland. We find that in 67%, 88% and 52% of the obliquity cycles during the early, middle and late Quaternary, respectively, a glacial termination is realized leading to irregular appearances of new interglacials during various parts of the last 2.6 Myr. This finding suggests that the proposed idea of terminations leading to new interglacials in the Quaternary as obliquity driven with growing influence of land ice volume on the timing of deglaciations during the last 1 Myr might be too simple. Alternatively, the land ice-based definition of interglacials needs revision if applied to the entire Quaternary.

This study presents a new definition of interglacials during the Quaternary. The authors find the appearance of interglacials is in general following the 41-kyr cycle of obliquity with various exceptions, suggesting a more complex physical mechanism triggering glacial terminations.

Modelling the effects of CO2 on C3 and C4 grass competition during the mid-Pleistocene transition in South Africa

Palaeoenvironmental reconstructions of the interior of South Africa show a wetter environment than today and a non-analogous vegetation structure in the Early Pleistocene. This includes the presence of grasses following both C₃ and C₄ photosynthetic pathways, whereas C₃ grasses decline after the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT, c. 1.2–0.8 Ma). However, the local terrestrial proxy record cannot distinguish between the potential drivers of these vegetation changes. In this study we show that low glacial CO₂ levels, similar to those at the MPT, lead to the local decline of C₃ grasses under conditions of decreased water availability, using a vegetation model (LPX) driven by Atmosphere–Ocean coupled General Climate Model climate reconstructions. We modelled vegetation for glacial climates under different levels of CO₂ and fire regimes and find evidence that a combination of low CO₂ and changed seasonality is driving the changes in grass cover, whereas fire has little influence on the ratio of C₃:C₄ grasses. Our results suggest the prevalence of a less vegetated landscape with limited, seasonal water availability, which could potentially explain the much sparser mid-Pleistocene archaeological record in the southern Kalahari.

Atmospheric CO2 during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and the M2 glaciation

The Piacenzian stage of the Pliocene (2.6 to 3.6 Ma) is the most recent past interval of sustained global warmth with mean global temperatures markedly higher (by ~2–3 °C) than today. Quantifying CO₂ levels during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP) provides a means, therefore, to deepen our understanding of Earth System behaviour in a warm climate state. Here we present a new high-resolution record of atmospheric CO₂ using the δ¹¹B-pH proxy from 3.35 to 3.15 million years ago (Ma) at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per 3–6 thousand years (kyrs). Our study interval covers both the coolest marine isotope stage of the mPWP, M2 (~3.3 Ma) and the transition into its warmest phase including interglacial KM5c (centered on ~3.205 Ma) which has a similar orbital configuration to present. We find that CO₂ ranged from \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${{\bf{394}}}_{{\boldsymbol{-}}{\bf{9}}}^{{\boldsymbol{+}}{\bf{34}}}$$\end{document}394−9+34 ppm to \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${{\bf{330}}}_{{\boldsymbol{-}}{\bf{21}}}^{{\boldsymbol{+}}{\bf{14}}}$$\end{document}330−21+14 ppm: with CO₂ during the KM5c interglacial being \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${{\bf{391}}}_{{\boldsymbol{-}}{\bf{28}}}^{{\boldsymbol{+}}{\bf{30}}}$$\end{document}391−28+30 ppm (at 95% confidence). Our findings corroborate the idea that changes in atmospheric CO₂ levels played a distinct role in climate variability during the mPWP. They also facilitate ongoing data-model comparisons and suggest that, at present rates of human emissions, there will be more CO₂ in Earth’s atmosphere by 2025 than at any time in at least the last 3.3 million years.

Evolution of vegetation and climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 1.74 million years

The Tibetan Plateau exerts a major influence on Asian climate, but its long-term environmental history remains largely unknown. We present a detailed record of vegetation and climate changes over the past 1.74 million years in a lake sediment core from the Zoige Basin, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show three intervals with different orbital- and millennial-scale features superimposed on a stepwise long-term cooling trend. The interval of 1.74-1.54 million years ago is characterized by an insolation-dominated mode with strong ~20,000-year cyclicity and quasi-absent millennial-scale signal. The interval of 1.54-0.62 million years ago represents a transitional insolation-ice mode marked by ~20,000- and ~40,000-year cycles, with superimposed millennial-scale oscillations. The past 620,000 years are characterized by an ice-driven mode with 100,000-year cyclicity and less frequent millennial-scale variability. A pronounced transition occurred 620,000 years ago, as glacial cycles intensified. These new findings reveal how the interaction of low-latitude insolation and high-latitude ice-volume forcing shaped the evolution of the Tibetan Plateau climate.