FosSahul 2.0, an updated database for the Late Quaternary fossil records of Sahul

Small populations of Palaeolithic humans in Cyprus hunted endemic megafauna to extinction

The hypothesized main drivers of megafauna extinctions in the late Quaternary have wavered between over-exploitation by humans and environmental change, with recent investigations demonstrating more nuanced synergies between these drivers depending on taxon, spatial scale, and region. However, most studies still rely on comparing archaeologically based chronologies of timing of initial human arrival into naïve ecosystems and palaeontologically inferred dates of megafauna extinctions. Conclusions arising from comparing chronologies also depend on the reliability of dated evidence, dating uncertainties, and correcting for the low probability of preservation (Signor-Lipps effect). While some models have been developed to test the susceptibility of megafauna to theoretical offtake rates, none has explicitly linked human energetic needs, prey choice, and hunting efficiency to examine the plausibility of human-driven extinctions. Using the island of Cyprus in the terminal Pleistocene as an ideal test case because of its late human settlement (~14.2-13.2 ka), small area (~11 000 km2), and low megafauna diversity (2 species), we developed stochastic models of megafauna population dynamics, with offtake dictated by human energetic requirements, prey choice, and hunting-efficiency functions to test whether the human population at the end of the Pleistocene could have caused the extinction of dwarf hippopotamus (Phanourios minor) and dwarf elephants (Palaeoloxodon cypriotes). Our models reveal not only that the estimated human population sizes (n = 3000-7000) in Late Pleistocene Cyprus could have easily driven both species to extinction within < 1000 years, the model predictions match the observed, Signor-Lipps-corrected chronological sequence of megafauna extinctions inferred from the palaeontological record (P. minor at ~12-11.1 ka, followed by P. cypriotes at ~10.3-9.1 ka).

Using gridCoal to assess whether standard population genetic theory holds in the presence of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in population size

Spatially explicit population genetic models have long been developed, yet have rarely been used to test hypotheses about the spatial distribution of genetic diversity or the genetic divergence between populations. Here, we use spatially explicit coalescence simulations to explore the properties of the island and the two-dimensional stepping stone models under a wide range of scenarios with spatio-temporal variation in deme size. We avoid the simulation of genetic data, using the fact that under the studied models, summary statistics of genetic diversity and divergence can be approximated from coalescence times. We perform the simulations using gridCoal, a flexible spatial wrapper for the software msprime (Kelleher et al., 2016, Theoretical Population Biology, 95, 13) developed herein. In gridCoal, deme sizes can change arbitrarily across space and time, as well as migration rates between individual demes. We identify different factors that can cause a deviation from theoretical expectations, such as the simulation time in comparison to the effective deme size and the spatio-temporal autocorrelation across the grid. Our results highlight that F_ST , a measure of the strength of population structure, principally depends on recent demography, which makes it robust to temporal variation in deme size. In contrast, the amount of genetic diversity is dependent on the distant past when N_e is large, therefore longer run times are needed to estimate N_e than F_ST . Finally, we illustrate the use of gridCoal on a real-world example, the range expansion of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) since the last glacial maximum, using different degrees of spatio-temporal variation in deme size.

Relative demographic susceptibility does not explain the extinction chronology of Sahul's megafauna

The causes of Sahul’s megafauna extinctions remain uncertain, although several interacting factors were likely responsible. To examine the relative support for hypotheses regarding plausible ecological mechanisms underlying these extinctions, we constructed the first stochastic, age-structured models for 13 extinct megafauna species from five functional/taxonomic groups, as well as 8 extant species within these groups for comparison. Perturbing specific demographic rates individually, we tested which species were more demographically susceptible to extinction, and then compared these relative sensitivities to the fossil-derived extinction chronology. Our models show that the macropodiformes were the least demographically susceptible to extinction, followed by carnivores, monotremes, vombatiform herbivores, and large birds. Five of the eight extant species were as or more susceptible than the extinct species. There was no clear relationship between extinction susceptibility and the extinction chronology for any perturbation scenario, while body mass and generation length explained much of the variation in relative risk. Our results reveal that the actual mechanisms leading to the observed extinction chronology were unlikely related to variation in demographic susceptibility per se, but were possibly driven instead by finer-scale variation in climate change and/or human prey choice and relative hunting success.

Overkill, glacial history, and the extinction of North America's Ice Age megafauna

The end of the Pleistocene in North America saw the extinction of 38 genera of mostly large mammals. As their disappearance seemingly coincided with the arrival of people in the Americas, their extinction is often attributed to human overkill, notwithstanding a dearth of archaeological evidence of human predation. Moreover, this period saw the extinction of other species, along with significant changes in many surviving taxa, suggesting a broader cause, notably, the ecological upheaval that occurred as Earth shifted from a glacial to an interglacial climate. But, overkill advocates ask, if extinctions were due to climate changes, why did these large mammals survive previous glacial-interglacial transitions, only to vanish at the one when human hunters were present? This question rests on two assumptions: that previous glacial-interglacial transitions were similar to the end of the Pleistocene, and that the large mammal genera survived unchanged over multiple such cycles. Neither is demonstrably correct. Resolving the cause of large mammal extinctions requires greater knowledge of individual species' histories and their adaptive tolerances, a fuller understanding of how past climatic and ecological changes impacted those animals and their biotic communities, and what changes occurred at the Pleistocene-Holocene boundary that might have led to those genera going extinct at that time. Then we will be able to ascertain whether the sole ecologically significant difference between previous glacial-interglacial transitions and the very last one was a human presence.

Extinction of eastern Sahul megafauna coincides with sustained environmental deterioration

Explanations for the Upper Pleistocene extinction of megafauna from Sahul (Australia and New Guinea) remain unresolved. Extinction hypotheses have advanced climate or human-driven scenarios, in spite of over three quarters of Sahul lacking reliable biogeographic or chronologic data. Here we present new megafauna from north-eastern Australia that suffered extinction sometime after 40,100 (±1700) years ago. Megafauna fossils preserved alongside leaves, seeds, pollen and insects, indicate a sclerophyllous forest with heathy understorey that was home to aquatic and terrestrial carnivorous reptiles and megaherbivores, including the world’s largest kangaroo. Megafauna species diversity is greater compared to southern sites of similar age, which is contrary to expectations if extinctions followed proposed migration routes for people across Sahul. Our results do not support rapid or synchronous human-mediated continental-wide extinction, or the proposed timing of peak extinction events. Instead, megafauna extinctions coincide with regionally staggered spatio-temporal deterioration in hydroclimate coupled with sustained environmental change.

The causes of the Upper Pleistocene megafauna extinction in Australia and New Guinea are debated, but fossil data are lacking for much of this region. Here, Hocknull and colleagues report a new, diverse megafauna assemblage from north-eastern Australia that persisted until ~40,000 years ago.