A global coral-bleaching database, 1980-2020

Testing for concordance between predicted species richness, past prioritization, and marine protected area designations in the western Indian Ocean

Scientific advances in environmental data coverage and machine learning algorithms have improved the ability to make large-scale predictions where data are missing. These advances allowed us to develop a spatially resolved proxy for predicting numbers of tropical nearshore marine taxa. A diverse marine environmental spatial database was used to model numbers of taxa from ∼1000 field sites, and the predictions were applied to all 7039 6.25-km2 reef cells in 9 ecoregions and 11 nations of the western Indian Ocean. Our proxy for total numbers of taxa was based on the positive correlation (r2 = 0.24) of numbers of taxa of hard corals and 5 highly diverse reef fish families. Environmental relationships indicated that the number of fish species was largely influenced by biomass, nearness to people, governance, connectivity, and productivity and that coral taxa were influenced mostly by physicochemical environmental variability. At spatial delineations of province, ecoregion, nation, and strength of spatial clustering, we compared areas of conservation priority based on our total species proxy with those identified in 3 previous priority-setting reports and with the protected area database. Our method identified 119 locations that fit 3 numbers of taxa (hard coral, fish, and their combination) and 4 spatial delineations (nation, ecoregion, province, and reef clustering) criteria. Previous publications on priority setting identified 91 priority locations of which 6 were identified by all reports. We identified 12 locations that fit our 12 criteria and corresponded with 3 previously identified locations, 65 that aligned with at least 1 past report, and 28 that were new locations. Only 34% of the 208 marine protected areas in this province overlapped with identified locations with high numbers of predicted taxa. Differences occurred because past priorities were frequently based on unquantified perceptions of remoteness and preselected priority taxa. Our environment-species proxy and modeling approach can be considered among other important criteria for making conservation decisions.

Time series (2003-15) analysis of selected physicochemical parameters in Indian Ocean: Cumulative impacts prediction on coral bleaching using machine learning

Coral bleaching is an important ecological threat worldwide, as the coral ecosystem supports a rich marine biodiversity to survive. Sea surface temperature was considered a major culprit; however, later it was observed that other water parameters like pH, tCO2, fCO2, salinity, dissolved oxygen, etc. also play a significant role in bleaching. In the present study, all these parameters of the Indian Ocean area for 15 years (2003-2017) were collected and analysed using machine learning language. The main aim is to see the cumulative impacts of various ocean parameters on coral bleaching. Introducing machine learning in environmental impact assessment studies is a new approach, and the prediction of coral bleaching using simulation of physico-chemical parameters interactions shows 94.4 % accuracy for the prediction of the future bleaching event. This study can be probably the first step in the application of the machine learning language for the prediction of coral bleaching in the field of marine science.

Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species

With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don't respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species' range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches.

Metabolic signatures of two scleractinian corals from the northern South China sea in response to extreme high temperature events

Coral bleaching events are becoming increasingly common worldwide, causing widespread coral mortality. However, not all colonies within the same coral taxa show sensitivity to bleaching events, and the current understanding of the metabolic mechanisms underlying thermal bleaching in corals remains limited. We used untargeted metabolomics to analyze the biochemical processes involved in the survival of two bleaching phenotypes of the common corals Pavona decussata and Acropora pruinosa, during a severe bleaching event in the northern South China Sea in 2020. During thermal bleaching, P. decussata and A. pruinosa significantly accumulated energy products such as succinate and EPA, antioxidants and inflammatory markers, and reduced energy storage substances like glutamate and thymidine. KEGG analysis revealed enrichment of energy production pathways such as ABC transporters, nucleotide metabolism and lipid metabolism, suggesting the occurrence of oxidative stress and energy metabolism disorders in bleached corals. Notably, heat stress exerted distinct effects on metabolic pathways in the two coral species, e.g., P. decussata activating carbohydrate metabolism pathways like glycolysis and the TCA cycle, along with amino acid metabolism pathways, whereas A. pruinosa significantly altered the content of multiple small peptides affected amino acid metabolism. Furthermore, the osmoregulatory potential of corals correlates with their ability to survive in heat-stress environments in the wild. This study provides valuable insights into the metabolic mechanisms linked to thermal tolerance in reef-building corals, contributes to the understanding of corals' adaptive potential to heat stress induced by global warming and lays the foundation for developing targeted conservation strategies in the future.

Coral species-specific loss and physiological legacy effects are elicited by an extended marine heatwave

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, with potentially catastrophic consequences for marine ecosystems such as coral reefs. An extended heatwave and recovery time-series that incorporates multiple stressors and is environmentally realistic can provide enhanced predictive capacity for performance under climate change conditions. We exposed common reef-building corals in Hawai'i, Montipora capitata and Pocillopora acuta, to a 2-month period of high temperature and high PCO2 conditions or ambient conditions in a factorial design, followed by 2 months of ambient conditions. High temperature, rather than high PCO2, drove multivariate physiology shifts through time in both species, including decreases in respiration rates and endosymbiont densities. Pocillopora acuta exhibited more significantly negatively altered physiology, and substantially higher bleaching and mortality than M. capitata. The sensitivity of P. acuta appears to be driven by higher baseline rates of photosynthesis paired with lower host antioxidant capacity, creating an increased sensitivity to oxidative stress. Thermal tolerance of M. capitata may be partly due to harboring a mixture of Cladocopium and Durusdinium spp., whereas P. acuta was dominated by other distinct Cladocopium spp. Only M. capitata survived the experiment, but physiological state in heatwave-exposed M. capitata remained significantly diverged at the end of recovery relative to individuals that experienced ambient conditions. In future climate scenarios, particularly marine heatwaves, our results indicate a species-specific loss of corals that is driven by baseline host and symbiont physiological differences as well as Symbiodiniaceae community compositions, with the surviving species experiencing physiological legacies that are likely to influence future stress responses.

Mitigation of Vibrio coralliilyticus-induced coral bleaching through bacterial dysbiosis prevention by Ruegeria profundi

Vibrio species are prevalent in ocean ecosystems, particularly Vibrio coralliilyticus, and pose a threat to corals and other marine organisms under global warming conditions. While microbiota manipulation is considered for coral disease management, understanding the role of commensal bacteria in stress resilience remains limited. Here, a single bacterial species (Ruegeria profundi) rather than a consortium of native was used to combat pathogenic V. coralliilyticus and protect corals from bleaching. R. profundi showed therapeutic activity in vivo, preventing a significant reduction in bacterial diversity in bleached corals. Notably, the structure of the bacterial community differed significantly among all the groups. In addition, compared with the bleached corals caused by V. coralliilyticus, the network analysis revealed that complex interactions and positive correlations in the bacterial community of the R. profundi protected non-bleached corals, indicating R. profundi's role in fostering synergistic associations. Many genera of bacteria significantly increased in abundance during V. coralliilyticus infection, including Vibrio, Alteromonas, Amphritea, and Nautella, contributing to the pathogenicity of the bacterial community. However, R. profundi effectively countered the proliferation of these genera, promoting potential probiotic Endozoicomonas and other taxa, while reducing the abundance of betaine lipids and the type VI section system of the bacterial community. These changes ultimately influenced the interactive relationships among symbionts and demonstrated that probiotic R. profundi intervention can modulate coral-associated bacterial community, alleviate pathogenic-induced dysbiosis, and preserve coral health. These findings elucidated the relationship between the behavior of the coral-associated bacterial community and the occurrence of pathological coral bleaching.IMPORTANCEChanges in the global climate and marine environment can influence coral host and pathogen repartition which refers to an increased likelihood of pathogen infection in hosts. The risk of Vibrio coralliilyticus-induced coral disease is significantly heightened, primarily due to its thermos-dependent expression of virulent and populations. This study investigates how coral-associated bacterial communities respond to bleaching induced by V. coralliilyticus. Our findings demonstrate that Ruegeria profundi exhibits clear evidence of defense against pathogenic bacterial infection, contributing to the maintenance of host health and symbiont homeostasis. This observation suggests that bacterial pathogens could cause dysbiosis in coral holobionts. Probiotic bacteria display an essential capability in restructuring and manipulating coral-associated bacterial communities. This restructuring effectively reduces bacterial community virulence and enhances the pathogenic resistance of holobionts. The study provides valuable insights into the correlation between the health status of corals and how coral-associated bacterial communities may respond to both pathogens and probiotics.

ReScape: transforming coral-reefscape images for quantitative analysis

Ever since the first image of a coral reef was captured in 1885, people worldwide have been accumulating images of coral reefscapes that document the historic conditions of reefs. However, these innumerable reefscape images suffer from perspective distortion, which reduces the apparent size of distant taxa, rendering the images unusable for quantitative analysis of reef conditions. Here we solve this century-long distortion problem by developing a novel computer-vision algorithm, ReScape, which removes the perspective distortion from reefscape images by transforming them into top-down views, making them usable for quantitative analysis of reef conditions. In doing so, we demonstrate the first-ever ecological application and extension of inverse-perspective mapping-a foundational technique used in the autonomous-driving industry. The ReScape algorithm is composed of seven functions that (1) calibrate the camera lens, (2) remove the inherent lens-induced image distortions, (3) detect the scene's horizon line, (4) remove the camera-roll angle, (5) detect the transformable reef area, (6) detect the scene's perspective geometry, and (7) apply brute-force inverse-perspective mapping. The performance of the ReScape algorithm was evaluated by transforming the perspective of 125 reefscape images. Eighty-five percent of the images had no processing errors and of those, 95% were successfully transformed into top-down views. ReScape was validated by demonstrating that same-length transects, placed increasingly further from the camera, became the same length after transformation. The mission of the ReScape algorithm is to (i) unlock historical information about coral-reef conditions from previously unquantified periods and localities, (ii) enable citizen scientists and recreational photographers to contribute reefscape images to the scientific process, and (iii) provide a new survey technique that can rigorously assess relatively large areas of coral reefs, and other marine and even terrestrial ecosystems, worldwide. To facilitate this mission, we compiled the ReScape algorithm into a free, user-friendly App that does not require any coding experience. Equipped with the ReScape App, scientists can improve the management and prediction of the future of coral reefs by uncovering historical information from reefscape-image archives and by using reefscape images as a new, rapid survey method, opening a new era of coral-reef monitoring.

A global database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves

Coral reefs support the world's most diverse marine ecosystem and provide invaluable goods and services for millions of people worldwide. They are however experiencing frequent and intensive marine heatwaves that are causing coral bleaching and mortality. Coarse-grained climate models predict that few coral reefs will survive the 3 °C sea-surface temperature rise in the coming century. Yet, field studies show localized pockets of coral survival and recovery even under high-temperature conditions. Quantifying recovery from marine heatwaves is central to making accurate predictions of coral-reef trajectories into the near future. Here we introduce the world's most comprehensive database on coral recovery following marine heatwaves and other disturbances, called Heatwaves and Coral-Recovery Database (HeatCRD) encompassing 29,205 data records spanning 44 years from 12,266 sites, 83 countries, and 160 data sources. These data provide essential information to coral-reef scientists and managers to best guide coral-reef conservation efforts at both local and regional scales.

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change

Identifying locations of refugia from the thermal stresses of climate change for coral reefs and better managing them is one of the key recommendations for climate change adaptation. We review and summarize approximately 30 years of applied research focused on identifying climate refugia to prioritize the conservation actions for coral reefs under rapid climate change. We found that currently proposed climate refugia and the locations predicted to avoid future coral losses are highly reliant on  excess heat metrics, such as degree heating weeks. However, many existing alternative environmental, ecological, and life-history variables could be used to identify other types of refugia that lead to the desired diversified portfolio for coral reef conservation. To improve conservation priorities for coral reefs, there is a need to evaluate and validate the predictions of climate refugia with long-term field data on coral abundance, diversity, and functioning. There is also the need to identify and safeguard locations displaying resistance toprolonged exposure to heat waves and the ability to recover quickly after thermal exposure. We recommend using more metrics to identify a portfolio of potential refugia sites for coral reefs that can avoid, resist, and recover from exposure to high ocean temperatures and the consequences of climate change, thereby shifting past efforts focused on avoidance to a diversified risk-spreading portfolio that can be used to improve strategic coral reef conservation in a rapidly warming climate.

Optimized spatial and temporal pattern for coral bleaching heat stress alerts for China's coral reefs

Most studies on coral bleaching alerts use common Degree Heating Week (DHW) thresholds; however, these may underestimate historical patterns of heat stress for coral reef ecosystems. Taking an optimized DHW threshold for coral bleaching alerts for Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD) products, we analyzed the precise spatial and temporal pattern of heat stress on China's coral reefs from 2010 to 2021 in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Beibu Gulf (BG). We compared acute heat stress using common and optimized thresholds. Results indicated that the ocean warming rate in 2010-2021 was approximately 0.43 ± 0.22 °C/10a, showing a significant increase in the northern SCS and the BG. More severe bleaching events were predicted by the optimized thresholds and the high-frequency areas were mainly in the northern SCS. The number and intensity of years with severe heat stress anomalies was in the order 2020 > 2014 > 2010 > 2015. Heat stress duration was the longest in the Xisha Islands among offshore archipelagos, and longest in 2020-2021 in Weizhou Island in BG in the relative high-latitude inshore reefs. These abnormal events were mainly caused by El Niño, but La Niña was also involved in 2020.

Individual and combined effects of herbicide prometryn and nitrate enrichment at environmentally relevant concentrations on photosynthesis, oxidative stress, and endosymbiont community diversity of coral Acropora hyacinthus

Nitrogen pollution and pesticides such as photosystem II (PSII) inhibitor herbicides have several detrimental impacts on coral reefs, including breakdown of the symbiosis between host corals and photosynthetic symbionts. Although nitrogen and PSII herbicide pollution separately cause coral bleaching, the combined effects of these stressors at environmentally relevant concentrations on corals have not been assessed. Here, we report the combined effects of nitrate enrichment and PSII herbicide (prometryn) exposure on photosynthesis, oxidative status and endosymbiont community diversity of the reef-building coral Acropora hyacinthus. Coral fragments were exposed in a mesocosm system to nitrate enrichment (9 μmol/L) and two prometryn concentrations (1 and 5 μg/L). The results showed that sustained prometryn exposure in combination with nitrate enrichment stress had significant detrimental impacts on photosynthetic apparatus [the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (Fv/Fm), nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) and oxidative status in the short term. Nevertheless, the adaptive mechanism of corals allowed the normal physiological state to be recovered following 1 μg/L prometryn and 9 μmol/L nitrate enrichment individual exposure. Moreover, exposure for 9 days was insufficient to trigger a shift in Symbiodiniaceae community. Most importantly, the negative impact of exposure to the combined environmental concentrations of 1 μg/L prometryn and 9 μmol/L nitrate enrichment was found to be significantly greater on the Fv/Fm, quantum yield of non-regulated energy dissipation [Y(NO)], NPQ, and oxidative status of corals compared to the impact of individual stressors. Our results show that interactions between prometryn stress and nitrate enrichment have a synergistic impact on the photosynthetic and oxidative stress responses of corals. This study provides valuable insights into combined effects of nitrate enrichment and PSII herbicides pollution for coral's physiology. Environmental concentrations of PSII herbicides may be more harmful to photosystems and antioxidant systems of corals under nitrate enrichment stress. Thus, future research and management of seawater quality stressors should consider combined impacts on corals rather than just the impacts of individual stressors alone.

Recent advancements in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change

Corals are the visible indicators of the disasters induced by global climate change and anthropogenic activities and have become a highly vulnerable ecosystem on the verge of extinction. Multiple stressors could act individually or synergistically which results in small to large scale tissue degradation, reduced coral covers, and makes the corals vulnerable to various diseases. The coralline diseases are like the Chicken pox in humans because they spread hastily throughout the coral ecosystem and can devastate the coral cover formed over centuries in an abbreviated time. The extinction of the entire reef ecosystem will alter the ocean and earth's amalgam of biogeochemical cycles causing a threat to the entire planet. The current manuscript provides an overview of the recent advancement in coral health, microbiome interactions and climate change. Culture dependent and independent approaches in studying the microbiome of corals, the diseases caused by microorganisms, and the reservoirs of coral pathogens are also discussed. Finally, we discuss the possibilities of protecting the coral reefs from diseases through microbiome transplantation and the capabilities of remote sensing in monitoring their health status.

Bacterial Communities Vary from Different Scleractinian Coral Species and between Bleached and Non-Bleached Corals

Bleaching is one of the most relevant factors implicated in the integrity of coral reef ecosystems, with the increasing frequency and intensity of damaging events representing a serious threat to reef biodiversity. Here, we analyzed changes in coral-associated bacteria from three types of non-bleached and bleached scleractinian corals (Acropora digitifera, Galaxea fascicularis, and Porites pukoensis) in Hainan Luhuitou peninsula coastal areas. The community structure of symbiotic bacteria differed significantly among the three apparently healthy corals. The bleached corals had higher bacterial alpha diversity and some specific bacteria genera, including Ruegeria, Methyloceanibacter, Filomicrobium, Halioglobus, Rubripirellula, Rhodopirellula, Silicimonas, Blastopirellula, Sva0996 marine group, Woeseia, and unclassified_c_Gammaproteobacteria, were consistently increased in bleached groups. Network analysis revealed significantly different degrees of modularity between bleached and non-bleached groups at the bacterial genus level, and a higher proportion of links was dominated by positive co-occurrences. Functional prediction analysis illustrated that coral-associated bacteria remained relatively consistent in the bleached and non-bleached groups. Structure equation modeling revealed that the bacterial community diversity and function were directly influenced by host and environment factors. These findings suggested that coral-associated bacterial responses to bleaching occur in a host-dependent manner, informing novel strategies for restoring coral and aiding adaption to bleaching stress. IMPORTANCE Accumulating evidence indicates that coral-associated bacteria play an important role in the health of holobionts. However, the variability of the symbiotic bacterial community structure among coral species with different coral health statuses remains largely unknown. Here, we investigated three apparent non-bleached (healthy) and bleached coral species (sampled in situ), involving related symbiotic bacterial profiles, including composition, alpha diversity, network relationship, and potential function. Structural equation modeling analysis was used to analyze the relationship between coral status and abiotic and biotic factors. The bacterial community structure of different groups was shown to exhibit host-specific traits. Both host and environmental impacts had primary effects on coral-associated microbial communities. Future studies are needed to identify the mechanisms that mediate divergent microbial consortia.

Oceanic differences in coral-bleaching responses to marine heatwaves

Anomalously high ocean temperatures have increased in frequency, intensity, and duration over the last several decades because of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming and marine heatwaves. Reef-building corals are sensitive to such temperature anomalies that commonly lead to coral bleaching, mortality, and changes in community structure. Yet, despite these overarching effects, there are geographical differences in thermal regimes, evolutionary histories, and past disturbances that may lead to different bleaching responses of corals within and among oceans. Here we examined the overall bleaching responses of corals in the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using both a spatially explicit Bayesian mixed-effects model and a deep-learning neural-network model. We used a 40-year global dataset encompassing 23,288 coral-reef surveys at 11,058 sites in 88 countries, from 1980 to 2020. Focusing on ocean-wide differences we assessed the relationships between the percentage of bleached corals and different temperature-related metrics alongside a suite of environmental variables. We found that while high sea-surface temperatures were consistently, and strongly, related to coral bleaching within all oceans, there were clear geographical differences in the relationships between coral bleaching and most environmental variables. For instance, there was an increase in coral bleaching with depth in the Atlantic Ocean whereas the opposite was observed in the Indian Ocean, and no clear trend could be seen in the Pacific Ocean. The standard deviation of thermal-stress anomalies was negatively related to coral bleaching in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, but not in the Indian Ocean. Globally, coral bleaching has progressively occurred at higher temperatures over the last four decades within the Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, although, again, there were differences among the three oceans. Together, such patterns highlight that historical circumstances and geographical differences in oceanographic conditions play a central role in contemporary coral-bleaching responses.

Study of the bleaching alert capability of the CRW and CoRTAD coral bleaching heat stress products in China's coral reefs

Coral bleaching heat stress products provide real-time and rapid coral bleaching alerts for coral reefs globally. However, geographical variations in the alert accuracy of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products exist. Taking the coral reefs in the South China Sea (SCS) as the study area, we evaluated and improved the coral bleaching alert capabilities of two coral bleaching heat stress products: Coral Reef Watch (CRW) and Coral Reef Temperature Anomaly Database (CoRTAD). Using in situ coral bleaching survey data and evaluation indicators, the optimized thresholds of degree heating weeks (DHWs) for coral bleaching alerts were determined. The results in the SCS indicated that, first, CRW was better than CoRTAD for coral bleaching event alerts. However, both products underestimated coral bleaching events using the common DHW thresholds of 4°C-weeks and 8°C-weeks. Second, the DHW optimized threshold for CRW was 3.32°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.52°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. For CoRTAD products, the DHW optimized threshold was 2.36°C-weeks for coral bleaching event alerts and 4.14°C-weeks for severe coral bleaching event alerts. This study proposed a method to evaluate and optimize the alert capability of multi-source coral bleaching heat stress products, which can provide more accurate basic data for coral reef ecosystem health assessment and contribute to global coral reef ecosystem protection and restoration.

Increase in the extent of mass coral bleaching over the past half-century, based on an updated global database

The recurrence of mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality in the past few decades have raised questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems. Although coral bleaching is well studied, our understanding of the spatial extent of bleaching events continues to be limited by geographical biases in data collection. To address this gap, we updated a previous observational database and spatially modelled the probability of past bleaching occurrence. First, an existing raw observational database was updated to cover the 1963-2017 period using searches of the academic and grey literature and outreach to coral reef monitoring organizations. Then, in order to provide spatially-explicit global coverage, we employed indicator kriging to spatially model the probability of bleaching occurrence each year from 1985 through 2017 at 0.05° x 0.05° lat-long resolution. The updated raw database has 37,774 observations, including 22,650 positive bleaching reports, three times that in the previous version. The spatial interpolation suggests that 71% of the world's coral reefs likely (>66% probability) experienced bleaching at least once during the 1985 and 2017 period. The mean probability of bleaching across all reefs globally was 29-45% in the most severe bleaching years of 1998, 2005, 2010 and 2016. Modelled bleaching probabilities were positively related with annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks (DHW), a measure of thermal stress, across all years (p<0.001), and in each global bleaching event (p<0.01). In addition, the annual maximum DHW of reef cells that very likely (>90% probability) experienced bleaching increased over time at three times the rate of all reef cells, suggesting a possible increase in reef thermal tolerance. The raw and spatially interpolated databases can be used by other researchers to enhance real-time predictions, calibrate models for future projections, and assess the change in coral reef response to thermal stress over time.

Shifts in predator behaviour following climate induced disturbance on coral reefs

Coral reefs are increasingly ecologically destabilized across the globe due to climate change. Behavioural plasticity in corallivore behaviour and short-term trophic ecology in response to bleaching events may influence the extent and severity of coral bleaching and subsequent recovery potential, yet our understanding of these interactions in situ remains unclear. Here, we investigated interactions between corallivory and coral bleaching during a severe high thermal event (10.3-degree heating weeks) in Belize. We found that parrotfish changed their grazing behaviour in response to bleaching by selectively avoiding bleached Orbicella spp. colonies regardless of bleaching severity or coral size. For bleached corals, we hypothesize that this short-term respite from corallivory may temporarily buffer coral energy budgets by not redirecting energetic resources to wound healing, and may therefore enable compensatory nutrient acquisition. However, colonies that had previously been heavily grazed were also more susceptible to bleaching, which is likely to increase mortality risk. Thus, short-term respite from corallivory during bleaching may not be sufficient to functionally rescue corals during prolonged bleaching. Such pairwise interactions and behavioural shifts in response to disturbance may appear small scale and short term, but have the potential to fundamentally alter ecological outcomes, especially in already-degraded ecosystems that are vulnerable and sensitive to change.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

Marine protected areas do not buffer corals from bleaching under global warming

BACKGROUND

The rising temperature of the oceans has been identified as the primary driver of mass coral reef declines via coral bleaching (expulsion of photosynthetic endosymbionts). Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been implemented throughout the oceans with the aim of mitigating the impact of local stressors, enhancing fish biomass, and sustaining biodiversity overall. In coral reef regions specifically, protection from local stressors and the enhanced ecosystem function contributed by MPAs are expected to increase coral resistance to global-scale stressors such as marine heatwaves. However, MPAs still suffer from limitations in design, or fail to be adequately enforced, potentially reducing their intended efficacy. Here, we address the hypothesis that the local-scale benefits resulting from MPAs moderate coral bleaching under global warming related stress.

RESULTS

Bayesian analyses reveal that bleaching is expected to occur in both larger and older MPAs when corals are under thermal stress from marine heatwaves (quantified as Degree Heating Weeks, DHW), but this is partially moderated in comparison to the effects of DHW alone. Further analyses failed to identify differences in bleaching prevalence in MPAs relative to non-MPAs for coral reefs experiencing different levels of thermal stress. Finally, no difference in temperatures where bleaching occurs between MPA and non-MPA sites was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that bleaching is likely to occur under global warming regardless of protected status. Thus, while protected areas have key roles for maintaining ecosystem function and local livelihoods, combatting the source of global warming remains the best way to prevent the decline of coral reefs via coral bleaching.