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Celone M, Beeman S, Han BA, Potter AM, Pecor DB, Okech B, Pollett S. Understanding transmission risk and predicting environmental suitability for Mayaro Virus in Central and South America. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0011859. [PMID: 38194417 PMCID: PMC10775973 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011859] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2023] [Accepted: 12/12/2023] [Indexed: 01/11/2024] Open
Abstract
Mayaro virus (MAYV) is a mosquito-borne Alphavirus that is widespread in South America. MAYV infection often presents with non-specific febrile symptoms but may progress to debilitating chronic arthritis or arthralgia. Despite the pandemic threat of MAYV, its true distribution remains unknown. The objective of this study was to clarify the geographic distribution of MAYV using an established risk mapping framework. This consisted of generating evidence consensus scores for MAYV presence, modeling the potential distribution of MAYV in select countries across Central and South America, and estimating the population residing in areas suitable for MAYV transmission. We compiled a georeferenced compendium of MAYV occurrence in humans, animals, and arthropods. Based on an established evidence consensus framework, we integrated multiple information sources to assess the total evidence supporting ongoing transmission of MAYV within each country in our study region. We then developed high resolution maps of the disease's estimated distribution using a boosted regression tree approach. Models were developed using nine climatic and environmental covariates that are related to the MAYV transmission cycle. Using the output of our boosted regression tree models, we estimated the total population living in regions suitable for MAYV transmission. The evidence consensus scores revealed high or very high evidence of MAYV transmission in several countries including Brazil (especially the states of Mato Grosso and Goiás), Venezuela, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and French Guiana. According to the boosted regression tree models, a substantial region of South America is suitable for MAYV transmission, including north and central Brazil, French Guiana, and Suriname. Some regions (e.g., Guyana) with only moderate evidence of known transmission were identified as highly suitable for MAYV. We estimate that approximately 58.9 million people (95% CI: 21.4-100.4) in Central and South America live in areas that may be suitable for MAYV transmission, including 46.2 million people (95% CI: 17.6-68.9) in Brazil. Our results may assist in prioritizing high-risk areas for vector control, human disease surveillance and ecological studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Celone
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Sean Beeman
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Barbara A. Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, United States of America
| | - Alexander M. Potter
- One Health Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
- Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit, Smithsonian Museum Support Center, Suitland, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution—National Museum of Natural History (NMNH), Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - David B. Pecor
- One Health Branch, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
- Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit, Smithsonian Museum Support Center, Suitland, Maryland, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, Smithsonian Institution—National Museum of Natural History (NMNH), Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Bernard Okech
- Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Simon Pollett
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc., Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
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Celone M, Potter AM, Han BA, Beeman SP, Okech B, Forshey B, Dunford J, Rutherford G, Mita-Mendoza NK, Estallo EL, Khouri R, de Siqueira IC, Petersen K, Maves RC, Anyamba A, Pollett S. A geopositioned and evidence-graded pan-species compendium of Mayaro virus occurrence. Sci Data 2023; 10:460. [PMID: 37452060 PMCID: PMC10349107 DOI: 10.1038/s41597-023-02302-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2022] [Accepted: 06/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Mayaro Virus (MAYV) is an emerging health threat in the Americas that can cause febrile illness as well as debilitating arthralgia or arthritis. To better understand the geographic distribution of MAYV risk, we developed a georeferenced database of MAYV occurrence based on peer-reviewed literature and unpublished reports. Here we present this compendium, which includes both point and polygon locations linked to occurrence data documented from its discovery in 1954 until 2022. We describe all methods used to develop the database including data collection, georeferencing, management and quality-control. We also describe a customized grading system used to assess the quality of each study included in our review. The result is a comprehensive, evidence-graded database of confirmed MAYV occurrence in humans, non-human animals, and arthropods to-date, containing 262 geo-positioned occurrences in total. This database - which can be updated over time - may be useful for local spill-over risk assessment, epidemiological modelling to understand key transmission dynamics and drivers of MAYV spread, as well as identification of major surveillance gaps.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael Celone
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Bethesda, Maryland, 20814, USA.
| | - Alexander M Potter
- Department of Entomology, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, 20910, USA
- Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit, Suitland, Maryland, 20746, USA
| | - Barbara A Han
- Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, New York, 12545, USA
| | - Sean P Beeman
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Bethesda, Maryland, 20814, USA
| | - Bernard Okech
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Bethesda, Maryland, 20814, USA
| | - Brett Forshey
- Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division, Silver Spring, Maryland, 20904, USA
| | - James Dunford
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Bethesda, Maryland, 20814, USA
| | - George Rutherford
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, 94158, USA
| | | | - Elizabet Lilia Estallo
- Instituto de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)-Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
| | - Ricardo Khouri
- Instituto Gonçalo Moniz-Fiocruz, R. Waldemar Falcão, Salvador-BA, Brazil
| | | | - Kyle Petersen
- Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, F. Edward Hébert School of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine & Biostatistics, Bethesda, Maryland, 20814, USA
| | - Ryan C Maves
- Section of Infectious Diseases, Wake Forest University School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC, USA
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Assaf Anyamba
- Geospatial Science and Human Security Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, One Bethel Valley Road, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37830, USA
| | - Simon Pollett
- Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA.
- Henry M. Jackson Foundation for the Advancement of Military Medicine, Inc, Bethesda, MD, USA.
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