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Qi J, Zhang J, Wang Y, Huang J, Aboubakri O, Yin P, Li G. The temporal variation in the effects of extreme temperature on respiratory mortality: Evidence from 136 cities in China, 2006-2019. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2024; 189:108800. [PMID: 38850671 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108800] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2023] [Revised: 05/29/2024] [Accepted: 06/02/2024] [Indexed: 06/10/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the context of climate change and urbanization, the temporal variation of the adverse health effect of extreme temperature has attracted increasing attention. METHODS The meteorological data and the daily death records of mortality from respiratory diseases of 136 Chinese cities were from 2006 to 2019. Heat wave and cold spell were selected as the indicator events of extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature, respectively. The generalized linear model and time-varying distributed lag model were used to perform a two-stage time-series analysis to evaluate the temporal variation of the mortality risk associated with extreme temperature in the total population, sub-populations (sex- and age- specific) and different regions (climatic zone and relative humidity level). RESULTS During the study period, relative risk (RR) of respiratory mortality associated with heat wave decreased from 1.22 (95 %CI: 1.07-1.39) to 1.13 (95 %CI: 1.01-1.26) in the total population, and RR of respiratory mortality associated with cold spell decreased from 1.30 (95 %CI: 1.14-1.49) to 1.17 (95 %CI: 1.08-1.26). The impact of heat wave reduced in the males (P = 0.044) and in the females as with cold spell (P < 0.001). The respiratory mortality risk of people over 65 associated with cold spell decreased (P = 0.040 for people aged 65-74 and P < 0.001 for people over 75). The effect of cold spell reduced in cities from tropical or arid zone (P = 0.035). The effects of both heat wave and cold spell decreased in cities with the relative humidity in the first quartile (P = 0.046 and 0.010, respectively). CONCLUSION The impact of heat wave on mortality of respiratory diseases decreased mainly in males and cities with the lowest relative humidity, while the impact of cold spell reduced in females, people over 65 and tropical and arid zone, suggesting adaptation to extreme temperature of Chinese residents to some extent.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinlei Qi
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Jin Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Yuxin Wang
- Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Department of Cancer Epidemiology, Peking University School of Oncology, Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing, China.
| | - Jing Huang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China.
| | - Omid Aboubakri
- Environmental Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.
| | - Peng Yin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Shanxi Key Laboratory of Environmental Health Impairment and Prevention, MOE Key Laboratory of Coal Environmental Pathogenicity and Prevention, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
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Wang Y, Lin L, Xu Z, Wang L, Huang J, Zhou M, Li G. Have residents adapted to heat wave and cold spell in the 21st century? Evidence from 136 Chinese cities. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2023; 173:107811. [PMID: 36878108 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107811] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2022] [Revised: 02/02/2023] [Accepted: 02/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Global climate change has increased the probability and intensity of extreme weather events. The adverse health effect of extreme temperature has gone through a temporal variation over years. Time-series data including city-level daily cardiovascular death records and meteorological data were collected from 136 Chinese cities during 2006 and 2019. A time-varying distributed lag model with interaction terms was applied to assess the temporal change of mortality risk and attributable mortality of heat wave and cold spell. The mortality effect of heat wave generally increased and that of cold spell decreased significantly in the total population during the study period. The heat wave effect increased especially among the female and people aged 65 to 74. As for the cold spell, the reduced susceptibility was detected both in the temperate and cold climatic zone. Our findings appeal for counterpart measures corresponding to sub-populations and regions responding to future extreme climate events from the public and individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuxin Wang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Lin Lin
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Zhihu Xu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Lijun Wang
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China
| | - Jing Huang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 27 Nanwei Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, China.
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China; Environmental Research Group, MRC Centre for Environment and Health, Sir Michael Uren Building, Imperial College London, White City Campus, 80-92 Wood Lane, London W12 0BZ, United Kingdom.
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Li H, Yao Y, Duan Y, Liao Y, Yan S, Liu X, Zhao Z, Fu Y, Yin P, Cheng J, Jiang H. Years of life lost and mortality risk attributable to non-optimum temperature in Shenzhen: a time-series study. JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE & ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 2021; 31:187-196. [PMID: 32054993 DOI: 10.1038/s41370-020-0202-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2019] [Revised: 11/15/2019] [Accepted: 11/28/2019] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
To assess YLL and mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, we collected mortality and environmental data from June 1, 2012 to December 30, 2017 in Shenzhen. We applied distributed lag nonlinear models with 21 days of lag to examine temperature-YLL and temperature-mortality associations, and calculated the attributable fractions of YLL and deaths for non-optimum temperature, including four subranges, mild cold, mild heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat. Cold and heat were distinguished by the optimum temperature, and each was separated into extreme and mild by cutoffs at 2.5th (12.2 °C) and 97.5th (30.4 °C) temperature percentile further. The optimum temperature was defined as the temperature that had minimum effect on YLL or mortality risk. The optimum temperature for non-accidental YLL was 24.5 °C, and for mortality it was 25.4 °C. Except for the population older than 65 years, the optimum temperature was generally lower in the YLL model than the mortality model. Of the total 61,576 non-accidental deaths and 1,350,835.7 YLL within the study period, 17.28% (95% empirical CI 9.42-25.14%) of YLL and 17.27% (12.70-21.34%) of mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperature. More YLL was caused by cold (10.14%, 3.94-16.36%) than by heat (7.14%, 0.47-13.88%). Mild cold (12.2-24.5 °C) was responsible for far more YLL (8.78%, 3.00-14.61%) than extreme cold (3.5-12.2 °C). As for cardiovascular deaths, only the fractions attributable to overall and cold temperature were significant, with mild cold contributing the largest fraction to YLL (16.31%, 6.85-25.82%) and mortality (16.08%, 9.77-21.22%). Most of the temperature-related YLL and mortality was attributable to mild but non-optimum weather, especially mild cold, while the YLL model implied a more prominent heat effect on premature death. Our findings can supply additional evidence from multiperspectives for health planners to define priorities and make targeted policies for mitigating the burden of adverse temperatures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongyan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Yao Yao
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Yanran Duan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Yi Liao
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Siyu Yan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Xuehan Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China
| | - Zhiguang Zhao
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Yingbin Fu
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China
| | - Ping Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China.
| | - Jinquan Cheng
- Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 8 Longyuan Rd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China.
| | - Hongwei Jiang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 13 Hangkong Rd, Wuhan, 430030, Hubei, China.
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Gu S, Zhang L, Sun S, Wang X, Lu B, Han H, Yang J, Wang A. Projections of temperature-related cause-specific mortality under climate change scenarios in a coastal city of China. ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL 2020; 143:105889. [PMID: 32619913 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2020.105889] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2019] [Revised: 06/05/2020] [Accepted: 06/11/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Numerous studies have been conducted to project temperature-related mortality under climate change scenarios. However, most of the previous evidence has been limited to the total or non-accidental mortality, resulting in insufficient knowledge on the influence of climate change on different types of disease. OBJECTIVES We aimed to project future temperature impact on mortality from 16 causes under multiple climate change models in a coastal city of China. METHODS We first estimated the baseline exposure-response relationships between daily average temperature and cause-specific mortality during 2009-2018. Then, we acquired downscaled future temperature projections from 28 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Finally, we combined these exposure-response associations with projected temperature to estimate the change in the temperature-related death burden in different future decades in comparison to the 2010 s, assuming no demographic changes and population acclimatization. RESULTS We found a consistently decreasing trend in cold-related mortality but a steep rise in heat-related mortality among 16 causes under climate change scenarios. Compared with the 2010 s, the net change in the fraction of total mortality attributable to temperature are projected to -0.54% (95% eCI: -1.69% to 0.71%) and -0.38% (95% eCI: -2.73% to 2.12%) at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. However, the magnitude of future cold and heat effects varied by different causes of death. A net reduction of future temperature-related death burden was observed among 10 out of 15 causes, with estimates ranging from -5.02% (95% eCI: -17.42% to 2.50%) in mental disorders to -1.01% (95% eCI: -5.56% to 3.28%) in chronic lower respiratory disease. Conversely, the rest diseases are projected to experience a potential net increase of temperature-related death burden, with estimates ranging from 0.44% (95% eCI: -4.40% to 6.02%) in ischemic heart disease and 4.80% (95% eCI: -0.04% to 9.84%) in external causes. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that the mortality burden of climate change varied greatly by the mortality categories. Further investigations are warranted to comprehensively understand the impacts of climate change on different types of disease across various regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaohua Gu
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Liang Zhang
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Shiqiang Sun
- Ningbo Meteorological Bureau, Ningbo 315000, China.
| | - Xiaofeng Wang
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310000, China.
| | - Beibei Lu
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Hangtao Han
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
| | - Jun Yang
- Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510000, China; Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou 511443, China.
| | - Aihong Wang
- Ningbo Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo 315010, China.
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Huang J, Zeng Q, Pan X, Guo X, Li G. Projections of the effects of global warming on the disease burden of ischemic heart disease in the elderly in Tianjin, China. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:1465. [PMID: 31694683 PMCID: PMC6836533 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7678-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/09/2018] [Accepted: 09/23/2019] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is one of the leading causes of deaths worldwide and causes a tremendous disease burden. Temperature is an important environmental determinant among the many risk factors for IHD. However, the emerging temperature-related health risks of IHD in the elderly is limited because of the lack of estimates that integrate global warming and demographic change. Methods Data on daily IHD deaths in the elderly aged ≥65 years and meteorological conditions were collected in Tianjin, a megacity of China, from 2006 to 2011. First, the baseline relationship between the temperature and years of life lost (YLL) from IHD was established. Then, future assessments were performed in combination with temperature projections for 19 global-scale climate models (GCMs) under 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s. Results Increased YLL from IHD in the elderly was found to be associated with future ambient temperatures. The annual temperature-related YLL from IHD in the 2050s and 2070s were higher than the baseline. For instance, increases of 4.5, 14.9 and 38.3% were found under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the 2070s. The most significant increases occurred in warm season months. The increase in heat-related YLL will not be completely offset, even with the 25% adaptation assumed. When considering demographic change, the temperature-related disease burden of IHD in the elderly will be exacerbated by 158.4 to 196.6% under 3 RCPs in the 2050s and 2070s relative to the baseline. Conclusions These findings have significant meaning for environmental and public health policy making and interventions towards the important issue of the health impacts of global warming on the elderly.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Huang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Qiang Zeng
- Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 38 Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100191, China
| | - Xiaochuan Pan
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Xinbiao Guo
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China
| | - Guoxing Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health Sciences, Peking University School of Public Health, Beijing, China.
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Xu X, Chen Z, Huo X, Wang C, Li N, Meng X, Wang Q, Liu Q, Bi P, Li J. The effects of temperature on human mortality in a Chinese city: burden of disease calculation, attributable risk exploration, and vulnerability identification. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1319-1329. [PMID: 31240387 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01746-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2019] [Revised: 06/06/2019] [Accepted: 06/06/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
Few studies have examined the attributable fraction (AF) of temperature to mortality and Years of Life Lost (YLL), especially in developing countries. This study aims to explore the short-term effect of the cold and hot temperatures on the cause-specific YLL and mortality, discover the attributable contributions from the temperature variations, and identify the vulnerable populations in Weifang, China. Daily registered death information and meteorological data over the period 2010-2016 were obtained in Weifang, a northern Chinese city. Generalized additive Poisson and Gaussian regression models were used to assess the impacts of temperatures on both mortality and YLL, explore the AF of the temperature variations on mortality, after adjusting for other covariates. Both hot and cold temperatures have had significant negative impacts on cause-specific mortality counts and YLL, with heat presented an acute and short effect and the cold temperatures had delayed effects and lasted for several days. In terms of the attributable fraction calculations, the contributions from cold effects was higher than that of hot effects on non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths (YLL 10.88 vs. 1.23%, 19.58 vs. 1.71%, and 14.47 vs. 3.05%; mortality 13.97 vs. 1.65%, 19.20 vs. 1.59%, and 14.89 vs. 3.09%), respectively. The elderly and women and people with low education level were the most vulnerable. The findings will provide important scientific evidences and policy implications for developing adaptation strategies to reduce the adverse effect of cold and hot exposure in Weifang, in terms of resource allocation, healthcare workforce capacity building, and community health education, especially for the vulnerable groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xin Xu
- Affiliated Hospital of Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Zuosen Chen
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiyuan Huo
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Chunping Wang
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Ning Li
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Xianfeng Meng
- Weifang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Weifang, 261061, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiang Wang
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China
| | - Qiyong Liu
- State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, 102206, Beijing, People's Republic of China
| | - Peng Bi
- School of Public Health, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, 5005, SA, Australia
| | - Jing Li
- School of Public Health and Management, Weifang Medical University, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
- "Health Shandong" Major Social Risk Prediction and Governance Collaborative Innovation Center, Weifang, 261053, Shandong Province, People's Republic of China.
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Liu J, Ma Y, Wang Y, Li S, Liu S, He X, Li L, Guo L, Niu J, Luo B, Zhang K. The Impact of Cold and Heat on Years of Life Lost in a Northwestern Chinese City with Temperate Continental Climate. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:ijerph16193529. [PMID: 31547211 PMCID: PMC6801473 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16193529] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/12/2019] [Revised: 09/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/13/2019] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
Cold spells and heat waves in a changing climate are well known as great public-health concerns due to their adverse effects on human health. However, very few studies have quantified health impacts of heat and cold in the region of Northwestern China. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effects of cold and heat on years of life lost (YLL) in Lanzhou, a city with temperate continental climate. We compiled a daily dataset including deaths, weather variables, and air pollutants in Lanzhou, China, from 2014–2017. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate single-day and cumulative effects of heat and cold on daily YLL. Results indicated that both cold and heat were associated with increased YLL for registered residents in Lanzhou. Estimated heat effects appeared immediately in the first two days, while estimated cold effects lasted over a longer period (up to 30 days). Cold significantly increased the YLL of all residents except for males and those with respiratory diseases (≥65 years). Our results showed that both heat and cold had more pronounced effects on cardiovascular diseases compared to respiratory diseases. Males might be more vulnerable to heat, while females might suffer more YLL from cold. The effects of cold or heat on the elderly might appear earlier and last longer than those for other age groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangtao Liu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Yueling Ma
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Yuhong Wang
- Lanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Sheng Li
- Lanzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Shuyu Liu
- Gansu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Xiaotao He
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Lanyu Li
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Lei Guo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Jingping Niu
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
| | - Bin Luo
- Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China.
- Shanghai Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Health, Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China.
| | - Kai Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics and Environmental Sciences, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
- Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
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Aboubakri O, Khanjani N, Jahani Y, Bakhtiari B. The impact of heat waves on mortality and years of life lost in a dry region of Iran (Kerman) during 2005-2017. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1139-1149. [PMID: 31127424 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01726-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/02/2018] [Revised: 04/01/2019] [Accepted: 04/16/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The present study was conducted to compare the impact of heat waves on mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in Kerman, Iran during the years 2005-2017. Daily mean temperature in a combination of intensity and duration were used in order to define heat waves (90, 95, and 98th percentile and ≥ 2, 3, and 4 consecutive days). YLL was calculated according to Iran's life table and by considering the discount rate. In order to investigate the impact of heat waves in different lags and its cumulative effect on mortality and YLL, Poisson and linear models within distributed lag nonlinear models were used respectively. A maximum lag of 14 days was considered. The best model was selected based on AIC (Akaike Information Criteria). The model was adjusted for air pollutants, public holidays, days of the week, and humidity. The average daily mortality and YLL were 10.54 ± 4.31 deaths and 175.58 ± 91.39 years respectively. They were higher in men and in heat waves matching a definition of above the 98th temperature percentile and ≥ 3 days, than others. Except heat waves defined as the 98th percentile and ≥ 4 days, the impact of heat waves on mortality and YLL were the highest at lag 0. The cumulative relative risk of total mortality was significantly higher in heat waves above the 95 and 98th percentiles. The cumulative effect of heat waves on total YLL was significantly higher only above the 98th percentile. Men over 65 years old were the most vulnerable and had the highest mortality and YLL. Heat waves with temperatures above the 98th percentile that lasted at least 2 or 3 consecutive days had a significant effect in increasing both total YLL and mortality in Kerman, Iran.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omid Aboubakri
- Neurology Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Narges Khanjani
- Environmental Health Engineering Research Center, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
| | - Younes Jahani
- Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
| | - Bahram Bakhtiari
- Water Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
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Cheng J, Xu Z, Bambrick H, Su H, Tong S, Hu W. Impacts of exposure to ambient temperature on burden of disease: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY 2019; 63:1099-1115. [PMID: 31011886 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01716-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/05/2019] [Revised: 03/25/2019] [Accepted: 03/27/2019] [Indexed: 05/21/2023]
Abstract
Ambient temperature is an important determinant of mortality and morbidity, making it necessary to assess temperature-related burden of disease (BD) for the planning of public health policies and adaptive responses. To systematically review existing epidemiological evidence on temperature-related BD, we searched three databases (PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus) on 1 September 2018. We identified 97 studies from 56 counties for this review, of which 75 reported the fraction or number of health outcomes (include deaths and diseases) attributable to temperature, and 22 reported disability-adjusted life years (include years of life lost and years lost due to disability) related to temperature. Non-optimum temperatures (i.e., heat and cold) were responsible for > 2.5% of mortality in all included high-income countries/regions, and > 3.0% of mortality in all included middle-income countries. Cold was mostly reported to be the primary source of mortality burden from non-optimum temperatures, but the relative role of three different temperature exposures (i.e., heat, cold, and temperature variability) in affecting morbidity and mortality remains unclear so far. Under the warming climate scenario, almost all projections assuming no population adaptation suggested future increase in heat-related but decrease in cold-related BD. However, some studies emphasized the great uncertainty in future pattern of temperature-related BD, largely depending on the scenarios of climate, population adaptation, and demography. We also identified important discrepancies and limitations in current research methodologies employed to measure temperature exposures and model temperature-health relationship, and calculate the past and project future temperature-related BD. Overall, exposure to non-optimum ambient temperatures has become and will continue to be a considerable contributor to the global and national BD, but future research is still needed to develop a stronger methodological framework for assessing and comparing temperature-related BD across different settings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jian Cheng
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Zhiwei Xu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Hilary Bambrick
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia
| | - Hong Su
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
| | - Wenbiao Hu
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, 4059, Australia.
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Luan G, Yin P, Wang L, Zhou M. Association between ambient temperature and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based study of the years of life lost. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH RESEARCH 2019; 29:246-254. [PMID: 30303404 DOI: 10.1080/09603123.2018.1533533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2018] [Accepted: 10/04/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
Limited evidence on the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) attributable to ambient temperature. We aim to explore the association between ambient temperature and years of life lost (YLL), and to get a more intuitive understanding of the dangers of COPD in China. Death and meteorological data of 31 Chinese provincial capital cities during 2008-2013 was analyzed in this study. Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between ambient temperature and mortality. The attributable fraction (AF) to cold effect ranged from 8.19 (95%CI: -8.52,19.38) to 28.98 (95%CI: -64.78,67.59), while the AF to heat effect varied from 0.02 (95%CI: -0.13,0.05) to 5.73 (95%CI: 0.31,10.22). Cold effect was higher than heat effect on COPD in women and elderly, heat effect was higher in men and younger. Low temperature can cause more serious disease burden of COPD than high temperature.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guijie Luan
- a Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Jinan , China
| | - Peng Yin
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
| | - Lijun Wang
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- b National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention , Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention , Beijing , China
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Sun S, Cao W, Mason TG, Ran J, Qiu H, Li J, Yang Y, Lin H, Tian L. Increased susceptibility to heat for respiratory hospitalizations in Hong Kong. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2019; 666:197-204. [PMID: 30798230 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.02.229] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2018] [Revised: 01/13/2019] [Accepted: 02/15/2019] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Emerging studies have shown temperature-mortality association is changing over time, but little is known about the temporal changes of the temperature-morbidity association. OBJECTIVES We aimed to evaluate the temporal variations in both temperature-respiratory hospitalizations associations and temperature-related attributable risks in Hong Kong. METHODS We collected 17-year time-series data on daily ambient temperature and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases between 2000 and 2016 in Hong Kong. Quasi-Poisson regression with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the year-specific association between temperature and respiratory hospitalizations [total respiratory, pneumonia, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)] and the year-specific attributable fraction (AF) for heat and cold (defined as above/below the optimum temperature, respectively). RESULTS Heat-related risks and AFs increased continuously for total respiratory, pneumonia and COPD hospitalizations during the past 17 years, respectively. Cold-hospitalization associations and cold-related AFs showed heterogeneous patterns, showing a decreasing trend for pneumonia but a general increasing trend for COPD for both the associations and AFs. The total temperature-related AFs remained stable for total respiratory (p for trend = 0.136) and pneumonia (p for trend = 0.406), but showed an increasing trend for COPD (p for trend < 0.001) from 10% (95% empirical CI: 2%, 17%) in 2000 to 17% (95% empirical CI: 11%, 22%) in 2016. CONCLUSIONS Our findings indicate an increased susceptibility to heat but a decreased susceptibility to cold for respiratory hospitalizations during the past 17 years. The overall temperature-related hospitalization burden for respiratory diseases was generally stable in Hong Kong.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shengzhi Sun
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; Department of Epidemiology, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, USA
| | - Wangnan Cao
- Public Health and Healthy Ageing Research Group, Faculty of Dentistry, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Tonya G Mason
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jinjun Ran
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hong Qiu
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Jinhui Li
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Yang Yang
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hualiang Lin
- Department of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Linwei Tian
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
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Zhang Y, Yu C, Peng M, Zhang L. The burden of ambient temperature on years of life lost: A multi-community analysis in Hubei, China. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 621:1491-1498. [PMID: 29054637 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.079] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/24/2017] [Revised: 09/07/2017] [Accepted: 10/09/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Compared with death rates, years of life lost (YLL) has been widely used as a more informative indicator to quantify the burden of premature death. In the context of global climate change, existing evidence linking ambient temperatures and YLL was very scarce across the globe. METHODS Daily mortality and meteorological data during 2009-2012 were obtained from 12 communities across Hubei Province in central China. A two-stage approach was used for statistical analysis. At the first stage, a generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to estimate community-specific temperature-YLL associations. A second-stage multivariable meta-analysis was then conducted to pool the community-specific estimates of temperature-related effects on YLL. RESULTS A pooled J- or U-shaped association was observed between ambient temperature and YLL due to different mortality categories. Heat effects occurred immediately and only persisted for several days, whereas cold effects were delayed and much longer-lasting. At the provincial level, heat effect (per 1°C increase from 75th to 99th percentile of temperature) at lag 0-2days and cold effect (per 1°C decrease from 25th to 1st percentile of temperature) at lag 0-21days was associated with an increase of 1.91% (95% CI: 0.83, 3.00) and 5.09% (2.79, 7.40) in YLL due to non-accidental deaths, respectively. Much greater effect estimates of cold than heat were also observed for other mortality-specific YLLs (except for respiratory mortality). Heat effects on YLL were higher for males and the youth, while cold effects were greater for females and the elderly. Additionally, relatively stronger associations between heat, cold and YLL were consistently observed in low-educated persons. CONCLUSIONS This multi-community study strengthened the evidence that both cold and hot temperatures were associated with increased years of life lost. Our findings may have important implications for better understanding the burden of premature death related to temperature extremes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunquan Zhang
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road,Wuchang District, Wuhan 430071, China
| | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, 185 Donghu Road,Wuchang District, Wuhan 430071, China; Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, 8 Donghunan Road, Wuchang District, Wuhan 430072, China.
| | - Minjin Peng
- Department of Infection Control, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan 442000, China
| | - Lan Zhang
- Office of Chronic Disease, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 6 Zhuodaoquan Road, Wuhan 430079, China
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