Competing tradeoffs between increasing marine mammal predation and fisheries harvest of Chinook salmon

Pathogens from salmon aquaculture in relation to conservation of wild Pacific salmon in Canada

The spread of pathogens from farmed salmon is a conservation concern for wild Pacific salmon in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Three pathogens are prevalent in farmed Atlantic salmon in BC, spill over to wild Pacific salmon, and are linked to negative impacts on wild salmon: Piscine orthoreovirus, Tenacibaculum spp., and sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis). Molecular screening of infectious agents in farmed and wild salmon and environmental DNA highlights a further 4 agents that are likely elevated near salmon farms and 37 that co-occur in wild and farmed salmon. Pathogens likely affect wild salmon indirectly by mediating migration, competition, and predation. Current net-pen aquaculture practices pose these risks to numerous populations of all species of wild salmon in BC, most of which are not covered in Government of Canada science and advisory reports. Climate change, pathogen evolution, and changes to disease management and aquaculture regulations will influence future risks.

The global extent and severity of operational interactions between conflicting pinnipeds and fisheries

Recent population recovery of many pinniped species (seals, sea lions, walrus) is a conservation success. However, pinniped population recovery combined with increasing global fisheries operations is leading to increased conflicts between pinnipeds and fisheries. This human-wildlife conflict threatens pinniped conservation outcomes and may impose damaging impacts on fisheries, but the economic consequences and extent of these impacts are poorly understood. Here, we provide a global assessment of pinniped and fisheries operational interactions. We show that a third of reported fishing days have interactions with pinnipeds and 13.8% of catch is lost. Our results also reveal high heterogeneity between studies. Small-scale fisheries are three times more likely to interact with pinnipeds and lose four times as much catch as large-scale fisheries. Finally, we develop a spatial index that can predict where conflict is most likely to occur. Our findings reveal a substantial global issue requiring appropriate management as pinniped populations continue to recover.

The combined effects of predation, fishing, and ocean productivity on salmon species targeted by marine mammals in the northeast Pacific

Along the northeast Pacific coast, the salmon-eating southern resident killer whale population (SRKW, Orcinus orca) have been at very low levels since the 1970s. Previous research have suggested that reduction in food availability, especially of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), could be the main limiting factor for the SRKW population. Using the ecosystem modelling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), this study evaluated if the decline of the Pacific salmon populations between 1979 and 2020 may have been impacted by a combination of factors, including marine mammal predation, fishing activities, and climatic patterns. We found that the total mortality of most Chinook salmon populations has been relatively stable for all mature returning fish despite strong reduction in fishing mortality since the 1990s. This mortality pattern was mainly driven by pinnipeds, with increases in predation between 1979 and 2020 mortality ranging by factors of 1.8 to 8.5 across the different Chinook salmon population groups. The predation mortality on fall-run Chinook salmon smolts originating from the Salish Sea increased 4.6 times from 1979 to 2020, whereas the predation mortality on coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) smolts increased by a factor of 7.3. The model also revealed that the north Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO) was the most important large-scale climatic index affecting the stock productivity of Chinook salmon populations from California to northern British Columbia. Overall, the model provided evidence that multiple factors may have affected Chinook salmon populations between 1979 and 2020, and suggested that predation mortality by marine mammals could be an important driver of salmon population declines during that time.

The effect of a startle-eliciting device on the foraging success of individual harbor seals (Phoca vitulina)

Pinniped predation on commercially and ecologically important prey has been a source of conflict for centuries. In the Salish Sea, harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) are suspected of impeding the recovery of culturally and ecologically critical Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). In Fall 2020, a novel deterrent called Targeted Acoustic Startle Technology (TAST) was deployed at Whatcom Creek to deter harbor seals from preying on fall runs of hatchery chum (O. keta) and Chinook (O. tshawytscha) salmon in Bellingham, Washington, USA. Field observations were conducted in 2020 to compare the presence and foraging success of individual harbor seals across sound exposure (TAST-on) and control (TAST-off) conditions. Observations conducted the previous (2019) and following (2021) years were used to compare the effects observed in 2020 to two control years. Using photo-identification, individual seals were associated with foraging successes across all 3 years of the study. Generalized linear mixed models showed a significant 45.6% reduction in the duration (min) individuals remained at the creek with TAST on, and a significant 43.8% reduction in the overall foraging success of individuals. However, the observed effect of TAST varied across individual seals. Seals that were observed regularly within one season were more likely to return the year after, regardless of TAST treatment. Generalized linear models showed interannual variation in the number of seals present and salmon consumed. However, the effect of TAST in 2020 was greater than the observed variation across years. Our analyses suggest TAST can be an effective tool for managing pinniped predation, although alternate strategies such as deploying TAST longer-term and using multi-unit setups to increase coverage could help strengthen its effects. Future studies should further examine the individual variability found in this study.

A multi-predator trophic database for the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

The California Current Trophic Database (CCTD) was developed at NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center in collaboration with numerous diet data contributors. We compiled the CCTD from twenty-four data sets, representing both systematic collections and directed trophic studies. Diet composition data, including stomach and scat samples, were obtained from 105,694 individual predators among 143 taxa collected throughout the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) from 1967-2019. Predator taxa consist of squids (n = 5), elasmobranchs (n = 13), bony fishes (n = 118), and marine mammals (n = 7). Extensive time series are available for some predators (e.g., California Sea Lion, Pacific Hake, Chinook Salmon). The CCTD represents the largest compilation of raw trophic data within the CCLME, allowing for more refined analyses and modeling studies within this region. Our intention is to further augment and periodically update the dataset as additional historical or contemporary data become available to increase its utility and impact.

Estimating reproductive costs in marine mammal bioenergetic models: a review of current knowledge and data availability

Reproductive costs represent a significant proportion of a mammalian female's energy budget. Estimates of reproductive costs are needed for understanding how alterations to energy budgets, such as those from environmental variation or human activities, impact maternal body condition, vital rates and population dynamics. Such questions are increasingly important for marine mammals, as many populations are faced with rapidly changing and increasingly disturbed environments. Here we review the different energetic costs that marine mammals incur during gestation and lactation and how those costs are typically estimated in bioenergetic models. We compiled data availability on key model parameters for each species across all six marine mammal taxonomic groups (mysticetes, odontocetes, pinnipeds, sirenians, mustelids and ursids). Pinnipeds were the best-represented group regarding data availability, including estimates of milk intake, milk composition, lactation duration, birth mass, body composition at birth and growth. There were still considerable data gaps, particularly for polar species, and good data were only available across all parameters in 45% of pinniped species. Cetaceans and sirenians were comparatively data-poor, with some species having little or no data for any parameters, particularly beaked whales. Even for species with moderate data coverage, many parameter estimates were tentative or based on indirect approaches, necessitating reevaluation of these estimates. We discuss mechanisms and factors that affect maternal energy investment or prey requirements during reproduction, such as prey supplementation by offspring, metabolic compensation, environmental conditions and maternal characteristics. Filling the existing data gaps highlighted in this review, particularly for parameters that are influential on bioenergetic model outputs, will help refine reproductive costs estimated from bioenergetic models and better address how and when energy imbalances are likely to affect marine mammal populations.

Individual variability in foraging success of a marine predator informs predator management

The complexities of trophic dynamics complicate the management of predator populations. Targeted culling campaigns are one management strategy meant to control predation for the benefit of the prey population. In these campaigns, individual predators are often considered “rogue” based on visitation rates to the site of concern. This definition assumes that all predators impact prey equally. However, individual variability in foraging success may compromise this assumption. To examine this hypothesis, we studied harbor seals preying on adult salmonids during the 2014–2019 fall runs in Whatcom Creek, Bellingham, Washington, USA, and recorded visitation rate and foraging success of individual seals from photographs and field observations. We then used Generalized Linear Mixed-Effects Models to model individual foraging success. Models including harbor seal identity better explained foraging success than models based on visitation rate alone. We concluded that considering intraspecific variability and classifying “rogue individuals” based on foraging success is a more accurate protocol for managing predator populations than relying solely on visitation rate of the predators.

Requirements and availability of prey for northeastern pacific southern resident killer whales

The salmon-eating Southern Resident killer whale (SRKW) (Orcinus orca) population currently comprises only 73 individuals, and is listed as ‘endangered’ under the Species at Risk Act in Canada. Recent evidence suggests that the growth of this population may be limited by food resources, especially Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We present spatio-temporal bioenergetics model for SRKW in the Salish Sea and the West Coast of Vancouver Island from 1979–2020 with the objective of evaluating how changes in the abundance, age-structure, and length-at-age of Chinook salmon populations has influenced the daily food consumption of the SRKW population. Our model showed that the SRKW population has been in energetic deficit for six of the last 40 years. Our results also suggested that the abundance of age-4 and age-5 Chinook salmon are significant predictors of energy intake for SRKW. We estimated that the annual consumption (April-October) of Chinook salmon by the whales between 1979 and 2020 ranged from 166,000 216,300. Over the past 40 years, the model estimated that the contribution in the predicted SRKW diet of Chinook salmon originating from the Columbia River has increased by about 34%, and decreased by about 15% for Chinook salmon stocks originating from Puget Sound. Overall, our study provides an overview of the requirements and availability of prey for SRKW over the last 40 years, while supporting the hypothesis that SRKW were limited by prey abundance in the study period.

Data on the diets of Salish Sea harbour seals from DNA metabarcoding

Marine trophic ecology data are in high demand as natural resource agencies increasingly adopt ecosystem-based management strategies that account for complex species interactions. Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) diet data are of particular interest because the species is an abundant predator in the northeast Pacific Ocean and Salish Sea ecosystem that consumes Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). A multi-agency effort was therefore undertaken to produce harbour seal diet data on an ecosystem scale using, 1) a standardized set of scat collection and analysis methods, and 2) a newly developed DNA metabarcoding diet analysis technique designed to identify prey species and quantify their relative proportions in seal diets. The DNA-based dataset described herein contains records from 4,625 harbour seal scats representing 52 haulout sites, 7 years, 12 calendar months, and a total of 11,641 prey identifications. Prey morphological hard parts analyses were conducted alongside, resulting in corresponding hard parts data for 92% of the scat DNA samples. A custom-built prey DNA sequence database containing 201 species (192 fishes, 9 cephalopods) is also provided.

Steller Sea Lion (Eumetopias jubatus) Response to Non-lethal Hazing at Bonneville Dam

Protected Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) aggregate at Bonneville Dam on the Columbia River and prey upon multiple species of endangered salmon ascending the river. Hazing is a non-lethal activity designed to repel sea lions that includes aversive auditory and physical stimuli to deter animals from an area and has been employed with sea lion—fisheries interactions for more than 40 years but sea lion responses to hazing through time is not well-documented. We observed the behavior of Steller sea lions in periods with and without hazing during two spring Chinook salmon passage seasons to evaluate: (1) what effect hazing had on the number of animals present and their foraging behavior, and (2) whether they habituated to hazing. We found that hazing temporarily reduced the number of Steller sea lions, but only when actively hazed. During hazing, Steller sea lions were more likely to move away from hazers on the dam, decreased their foraging, and increased their time investigating the environment. However, these effects were temporary; their behavior returned to initial observation levels once hazing ceased. Furthermore, their responsiveness to hazing declined throughout the season, indicating habituation and raising concern for the application and long-term efficacy of hazing in managing predation on endangered salmon.

Synchrony erodes spatial portfolios of an anadromous fish and alters availability for resource users

Environmental forces can create spatially synchronous dynamics among nearby populations. However, increased climate variability, driven by anthropogenic climate change, will likely enhance synchrony among spatially disparate populations. Population synchrony may lead to greater fluctuations in abundance, but the consequences of population synchrony across multiple scales of biological organization, including impacts to putative competitors, dependent predators or human communities, are rarely considered in this context. Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha stocks distribute across the Northeast Pacific, creating spatially variable portfolios that support large ocean fisheries and marine mammal predators, such as killer whales Orcinus orca. We rely on a multi-population model that simulates Chinook salmon ocean distribution and abundance to understand spatial portfolios, or variability in abundance within and among ocean distribution regions, of Chinook salmon stocks across 17 ocean regions from Southeast Alaska to California. We found the expected positive correlation between the number of stocks in an ocean region and spatial portfolio strength; however, increased demographic synchrony eroded Chinook salmon spatial portfolios in the ocean. Moreover, we observed decreased resource availability within ocean fishery management jurisdictions but not within killer whale summer habitat. We found a strong portfolio effect across both Southern Resident and Northern Resident killer whale habitats that was relatively unaffected by increased demographic synchrony, likely a result of the large spatial area included in these habitats. However, within the areas of smaller fishing management jurisdictions we found a weakening of Chinook salmon portfolios and increased but inconsistent likelihood of low abundance years as demographic synchrony increased. We suggest that management and conservation actions that reduce spatial synchrony can enhance short-term ecosystem resilience by promoting the stabilizing effect multiple stocks have on aggregate Chinook salmon populations and overall resource availability.

Transient dynamics during kelp forest recovery from fishing across multiple trophic levels

Outcomes of management efforts to recover or restore populations of harvested species can be highly dependent on environmental and community context. Predator-prey interactions can alter recovery trajectories, and the timing of management actions within multi-trophic level harvest scenarios may influence the dynamics of recovery and lead to management trade-offs. Recent work using a generalist predator-prey model suggests that management promoting synchronized recovery of predators and prey leads to faster and less variable recovery trajectories than sequential recovery (predator or prey first). However, more complex communities may require different management actions to minimize recovery time and variability. Here, we use a tri-trophic level rocky reef community dynamics model with size-structure and fisheries at multiple trophic levels to investigate the importance of three ecological processes to recovery of fished communities: (1) size-structured predation, (2) non-consumptive effects of predators on prey behavior, and (3) varying levels of recruitment. We also test the effects of initiating recovery from community states associated with varying degrees of fishery-induced degradation and develop a simulation in which the basal resource (kelp) is harvested. In this system, a predator-first closure generally leads to the least volatile and quickest recovery, whether from a kelp forest, urchin barren, or intermediate community state. The benefits gained by selecting this strategy are magnified when recovering from the degraded community, the urchin barren, because initial conditions in the degraded state lead to lengthy recovery times. However, the shape of the size-structured predation relationship can strongly affect recovery volatility, where the differences between alternate management strategies are negated with size-independent predation. External recruitment reduces return times by bolstering the predatory lobster population. These results show that in a tightly linked tri-trophic level food web with top-down control, a predator-first fishery closure can be the most effective strategy to reduce volatility and shorten recovery, particularly when the system is starting from the degraded community state. Given the ubiquity of top predator loss across many ecosystems, we highlight the value of incorporating insights from community ecology into ecosystem management.

Predation landscapes influence migratory prey ecology and evolution

Migratory prey experience spatially variable predation across their life cycle. They face unique challenges in navigating this predation landscape, which affects their perception of risk, antipredator responses, and resulting mortality. Variable and unfamiliar predator cues during migration can limit accurate perception of risk and migrants often rely on social information and learning to compensate. The energetic demands of migration constrain antipredator responses, often through context-dependent patterns. While migration can increase mortality, migrants employ diverse strategies to balance risks and rewards, including life history and antipredator responses. Humans interact frequently with migratory prey across space and alter both mortality risk and antipredator responses, which can scale up to affect migratory populations and should be considered in conservation and management.

Environmentally triggered shifts in steelhead migration behavior and consequences for survival in the mid-Columbia River

The majority of Columbia River summer-run steelhead encounter high river temperatures (near or > 20°C) during their spawning migration. While some steelhead pass through the mid-Columbia River in a matter of days, others use tributary habitats as temperature refuges for periods that can last months. Using PIT tag detection data from adult return years 2004-2016, we fit 3-component mixture models to differentiate between "fast", "slow", and "overwintering" migration behaviors in five aggregated population groups. Fast fish migrated straight through the reach on average in ~7-9 days while slow fish delayed their migration for weeks to months, and overwintering fish generally took ~150-250 days. We then fit covariate models to examine what factors contributed to the probability of migration delay during summer months (slow or overwintering behaviors), and to explore how migration delay related to mortality. Finally, to account for the impact of extended residence times in the reach for fish that delayed, we compared patterns in estimated average daily rates of mortality between migration behaviors and across population groups. Results suggest that migration delay was primarily triggered by high river temperatures but temperature thresholds for delay were lowest just before the seasonal peak in river temperatures. While all populations groups demonstrated these general patterns, we documented substantial variability in temperature thresholds and length of average delays across population groups. Although migration delay was related to higher reach mortality, it was also related to lower average daily mortality rates due to the proportional increase in reach passage duration being larger than the associated increase in mortality. Lower daily mortality rates suggest that migration delay could help mitigate the impacts of harsh migration conditions, presumably through the use of thermal refuges, despite prolonged exposure to local fisheries. Future studies tracking individual populations from their migration through reproduction could help illuminate the full extent of the tradeoffs between different migration behaviors.

Passive acoustic monitoring reveals spatiotemporal segregation of two fish-eating killer whale Orcinus orca populations in proposed critical habitat

Competition for prey resources among ecologically similar populations that occur in sympatry can be reduced by spatiotemporal resource partitioning. Understanding patterns of habitat use of cetaceans can be difficult since they are highly mobile and can have large home ranges. We used passive acoustic monitoring at 15 sites along the coast of Washington State, USA, to assess habitat use patterns of 2 sympatric populations of fish-eating killer whales Orcinus orca: northern residents (NRKW) and southern residents (SRKW). This area is part of the ocean distributions of a number of important runs of Chinook salmon Oncorhyncus tshawytscha, the preferred prey of both populations, and is proposed critical habitat for SRKW. We compared monthly occurrence of both populations at recorder locations grouped by their proximity to the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the north and the Columbia River to the south in one analysis and by their distance from shore in a second analysis. NRKW and SRKW were detected throughout the year with spring and fall peaks in occurrence. The northernmost sites accounted for 93% of NRKW detections, while less than half of SRKW detections were at these sites. SRKW were most frequently detected at nearshore sites (83% of detections), while the majority of NRKW detections were at mid-shelf and deep sites (94% of detections). This study provides further information about the habitat use of these resident killer whale populations with implications for their management and conservation.

Endangered predators and endangered prey: Seasonal diet of Southern Resident killer whales

Understanding diet is critical for conservation of endangered predators. Southern Resident killer whales (SRKW) (Orcinus orca) are an endangered population occurring primarily along the outer coast and inland waters of Washington and British Columbia. Insufficient prey has been identified as a factor limiting their recovery, so a clear understanding of their seasonal diet is a high conservation priority. Previous studies have shown that their summer diet in inland waters consists primarily of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), despite that species' rarity compared to some other salmonids. During other times of the year, when occurrence patterns include other portions of their range, their diet remains largely unknown. To address this data gap, we collected feces and prey remains from October to May 2004-2017 in both the Salish Sea and outer coast waters. Using visual and genetic species identification for prey remains and genetic approaches for fecal samples, we characterized the diet of the SRKWs in fall, winter, and spring. Chinook salmon were identified as an important prey item year-round, averaging ~50% of their diet in the fall, increasing to 70-80% in the mid-winter/early spring, and increasing to nearly 100% in the spring. Other salmon species and non-salmonid fishes, also made substantial dietary contributions. The relatively high species diversity in winter suggested a possible lack of Chinook salmon, probably due to seasonally lower densities, based on SRKW's proclivity to selectively consume this species in other seasons. A wide diversity of Chinook salmon stocks were consumed, many of which are also at risk. Although outer coast Chinook samples included 14 stocks, four rivers systems accounted for over 90% of samples, predominantly the Columbia River. Increasing the abundance of Chinook salmon stocks that inhabit the whales' winter range may be an effective conservation strategy for this population.

Climate change threatens Chinook salmon throughout their life cycle

Widespread declines in Atlantic and Pacific salmon (Salmo salar and Oncorhynchus spp.) have tracked recent climate changes, but managers still lack quantitative projections of the viability of any individual population in response to future climate change. To address this gap, we assembled a vast database of survival and other data for eight wild populations of threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha). For each population, we evaluated climate impacts at all life stages and modeled future trajectories forced by global climate model projections. Populations rapidly declined in response to increasing sea surface temperatures and other factors across diverse model assumptions and climate scenarios. Strong density dependence limited the number of salmon that survived early life stages, suggesting a potentially efficacious target for conservation effort. Other solutions require a better understanding of the factors that limit survival at sea. We conclude that dramatic increases in smolt survival are needed to overcome the negative impacts of climate change for this threatened species.

Differential impacts of freshwater and marine covariates on wild and hatchery Chinook salmon marine survival

Large-scale atmospheric conditions in the Northeast Pacific Ocean affect both the freshwater environment in the Columbia River Basin and marine conditions along the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, resulting in correlated conditions in the two environments. For migrating species, such as salmonids that move through multiple habitats, these correlations can amplify the impact of good or poor physical conditions on growth and survival, as movements among habitats may not alleviate effects of anomalous conditions. Unfortunately, identifying the mechanistic drivers of salmon survival in space and time is hindered by these cross-habitat correlations. To address this issue, we modeled the marine survival of Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon with multiple indices of the marine environment and an explicit treatment of the effect of arrival timing from freshwater to the ocean, and found that both habitats contribute to marine survival rates. We show how this particular carryover effect of freshwater conditions on marine survival varies by year and rearing type (hatchery or wild), with a larger effect for wild fish. As environmental conditions change, incorporating effects from both freshwater and marine habitats into salmon survival models will become more important, and has the additional benefit of highlighting how management actions that affect arrival timing may improve marine survival.

Thermal sensitivity and flow-mediated migratory delays drive climate risk for coastal sockeye salmon

Climate change is subjecting aquatic species to increasing temperatures and shifting hydrologic conditions. Understanding how these changes affect individual survival can help guide conservation and management actions. Anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in some large river systems are acutely impacted by the river temperatures and flows encountered during their spawning migrations. However, comparatively little is known about drivers of en route mortality for salmon in smaller coastal watersheds, and climate impacts may differ across watersheds and locally adapted salmon populations. To understand the effects of climate on the survival of coastal sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka; hísn in Haíɫzaqv), we tagged 1785 individual fish with passive integrated transponders across four migration seasons in the Koeye River—a low-elevation watershed in coastal British Columbia—and tracked them during their relatively short migration (∼13 km) from river entry to spawning grounds. Overall, 64.7% of sockeye survived to enter the spawning grounds, and survival decreased rapidly when water temperatures exceeded 15 °C. The best-fitting model included an interaction between river flow and temperature, such that temperature effects were worse when flows were low, and river entry ceased at the lowest flows. Results revealed temperature-mediated mortality and migration delays from low water that may synergistically reduce survival among sockeye salmon returning to coastal watersheds.

Large-scale molecular barcoding of prey DNA reveals predictors of intrapopulation feeding diversity in a marine predator

Predator-prey interactions are critical in understanding how communities function. However, we need to describe intraspecific variation in diet to accurately depict those interactions. Harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) are an abundant marine predator that prey on species of conservation concern. We estimated intrapopulation feeding diversity (variation in feeding habits between individuals of the same species) of harbor seals in the Salish Sea. Estimates of feeding diversity were examined relative to sex, month, and location using a novel approach that combined molecular techniques, repeated cross-sectional sampling of scat, and a specialization metric (within-individual consistency in diet measured by the Proportional Similarity Index ( P S i )). Based on 1,083 scat samples collected from five haul-out sites during four nonsequential years, we quantified diet using metabarcoding techniques and determined the sex of the scat depositor using a molecular assay. Results suggest that intrapopulation feeding diversity was present. Specialization was high over short periods (24-48 hr, P S i  = 0.392, 95% CI = 0.013, R = 100,000) and variable in time and space. Females showed more specialization than males, particularly during summer and fall. Additionally, demersal and benthic prey species were correlated with more specialized diets. The latter finding suggests that this type of prey likely requires specific foraging strategies and that there are trade-offs between pelagic and benthic foraging styles for harbor seals. This differential feeding on prey species, as well as between sexes of harbor seals, indicates that predator-prey interactions in harbor seals are complex and that each sex may have a different impact on species of conservation concern. As such, describing intrapopulation feeding diversity may unravel hitherto unknown complex predator-prey interactions in the community.

Recent declines in salmon body size impact ecosystems and fisheries

Declines in animal body sizes are widely reported and likely impact ecological interactions and ecosystem services. For harvested species subject to multiple stressors, limited understanding of the causes and consequences of size declines impedes prediction, prevention, and mitigation. We highlight widespread declines in Pacific salmon size based on 60 years of measurements from 12.5 million fish across Alaska, the last largely pristine North American salmon-producing region. Declines in salmon size, primarily resulting from shifting age structure, are associated with climate and competition at sea. Compared to salmon maturing before 1990, the reduced size of adult salmon after 2010 has potentially resulted in substantial losses to ecosystems and people; for Chinook salmon we estimated average per-fish reductions in egg production (-16%), nutrient transport (-28%), fisheries value (-21%), and meals for rural people (-26%). Downsizing of organisms is a global concern, and current trends may pose substantial risks for nature and people.

Managing salmon for wildlife: Do fisheries limit salmon consumption by bears in small Alaskan streams?

Ecosystem-based management requires consideration of overlapping resource use between humans and other consumers. Pacific salmon are an important resource for both fisheries and populations of wildlife around the Pacific rim, including coastal brown bears (Ursus arctos); salmon consumption has been positively linked to bear density, body size, and reproductive rate. As a case study within the broader context of human-wildlife competition for food, we used 16-22 yr of empirical data in four different salmon-bearing systems in southwestern Alaska to explore the relationship between sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) availability and consumption by bears. We found a negative relationship between the annual biomass of salmon available to bears and the fraction of biomass consumed per fish, and a saturating relationship between salmon availability and the total annual biomass of salmon consumed by bears. Under modeled scenarios, bear consumption of salmon was predicted to increase only with dramatic (on the order of 50-100%) increases in prey availability. Even such large increases in salmon abundance were estimated to produce relatively modest increases in per capita salmon consumption by bears (2.4-4.8 kg·bear^-1 ·d^-1 , 15-59% of the estimated daily maximum per capita intake), in part because bears did not consume salmon entirely, especially when salmon were most available. Thus, while bears catching salmon in small streams may be limited by salmon harvest in some years, current management of the systems we studied is sufficient for bear populations to reach maximum salmon consumption every 2-4 yr. Consequently, allocating more salmon for brown bear conservation would unlikely result in an ecologically significant response for bears in these systems, though other ecosystem components might benefit. Our results highlight the need for documenting empirical relationships between prey abundance and consumption, particularly in systems with partial consumption, when evaluating the ecological response of managing prey resources for wildlife populations.

Resurgence of an apex marine predator and the decline in prey body size

Recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide have heightened concerns for their potential impacts on global fisheries. While predator-induced reductions in prey abundance have been documented, trait-mediated changes in life-history characteristics are rarely considered. Here we provide a striking example of the impact of a resurging apex marine predator on a commercially important fish species through changes in prey life-history traits. We find that widespread declines in the body size of Chinook salmon over the past 50 y can be explained by intensified predation by growing populations of resident killer whales that selectively feed on large Chinook salmon, thus revealing a potential conflict between salmon fisheries and marine mammal conservation objectives.

In light of recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide and heightened concern about their impacts on marine food webs and global fisheries, it has become increasingly important to understand the potential impacts of large marine mammal predators on prey populations and their life-history traits. In coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean, marine mammals have increased in abundance over the past 40 to 50 y, including fish-eating killer whales that feed primarily on Chinook salmon. Chinook salmon, a species of high cultural and economic value, have exhibited marked declines in average size and age throughout most of their North American range. This raises the question of whether size-selective predation by marine mammals is generating these trends in life-history characteristics. Here we show that increased predation since the 1970s, but not fishery selection alone, can explain the changes in age and size structure observed for Chinook salmon populations along the west coast of North America. Simulations suggest that the decline in mean size results from the selective removal of large fish and an evolutionary shift toward faster growth and earlier maturation caused by selection. Our conclusion that intensifying predation by fish-eating killer whales contributes to the continuing decline in Chinook salmon body size points to conflicting management and conservation objectives for these two iconic species.

Endangered wild salmon infected by newly discovered viruses

The collapse of iconic, keystone populations of sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) salmon in the Northeast Pacific is of great concern. It is thought that infectious disease may contribute to declines, but little is known about viruses endemic to Pacific salmon. Metatranscriptomic sequencing and surveillance of dead and moribund cultured Chinook salmon revealed a novel arenavirus, reovirus and nidovirus. Sequencing revealed two different arenavirus variants which each infect wild Chinook and sockeye salmon. In situ hybridisation localised arenavirus mostly to blood cells. Population surveys of >6000 wild juvenile Chinook and sockeye salmon showed divergent distributions of viruses, implying different epidemiological processes. The discovery in dead and dying farmed salmon of previously unrecognised viruses that are also widely distributed in wild salmon, emphasizes the potential role that viral disease may play in the population dynamics of wild fish stocks, and the threat that these viruses may pose to aquaculture.

The necessity of a holistic approach when managing marine mammal-fisheries interactions: Environment and fisheries impact are stronger than seal predation

Seal populations are recovering in many regions around the world and, consequently, they are increasingly interacting with fisheries. We used an Ecopath with Ecosim model for the offshore Central Baltic Sea to investigate the interactions between the changes in fish stocks and grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) population under different fishing and environmental scenarios for the twenty-first century. The assumed climate, eutrophication and cod (Gadus morhua) fisheries scenarios modified seal predation impacts on fish. Fish biomass and catches are more affected by fishing mortality and the environment than by seal predation. Our results highlight that the impacts of the increasing seal population on lower trophic levels are complex; thus, we emphasize the need to consider a range of possible ecosystem contexts when evaluating potential impacts of top predators. Finally, we suggest that an increasing seal population is not likely to hinder the preservation of the main Baltic fish stocks.

Ocean predation and mortality of adult Atlantic salmon

Predation and mortality are often difficult to estimate in the ocean, which hampers the management and conservation of marine fishes. We used data from pop-up satellite archival tags to investigate the ocean predation and mortality of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) released from 12 rivers flowing into the North Atlantic Ocean. Data from 156 tagged fish revealed 22 definite predation events (14%) and 38 undetermined mortalities (24%). Endothermic fish were the most common predators (n = 13), with most of these predation events occurring in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and from the Bay of Biscay to the Irish Shelf. Predation by marine mammals, most likely large deep-diving toothed whales (n = 5), and large ectothermic fish (n = 4) were less frequent. Both the estimated predation rates (Z_P) and total mortality rates (Z_M) where higher for Atlantic salmon from Canada, Ireland, and Spain (Z_P = 0.60–1.32 y⁻¹, Z_M = 1.73–3.08 y⁻¹) than from Denmark and Norway (Z_P = 0–0.13 y⁻¹, Z_M = 0.19–1.03 y⁻¹). This geographical variation in ocean mortality correlates with ongoing population declines, which are more profound for southern populations, indicating that low ocean survival of adults may act as an additional stressor to already vulnerable populations.

Classifying grey seal behaviour in relation to environmental variability and commercial fishing activity - a multivariate hidden Markov model

Classifying movement behaviour of marine predators in relation to anthropogenic activity and environmental conditions is important to guide marine conservation. We studied the relationship between grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) behaviour and environmental variability in the southwestern Baltic Sea where seal-fishery conflicts are increasing. We used multiple environmental covariates and proximity to active fishing nets within a multivariate hidden Markov model (HMM) to quantify changes in movement behaviour of grey seals while at sea. Dive depth, dive duration, surface duration, horizontal displacement, and turning angle were used to identify travelling, resting and foraging states. The likelihood of seals foraging increased in deeper, colder, more saline waters, which are sites with increased primary productivity and possibly prey densities. Proximity to active fishing net also had a pronounced effect on state occupancy. The probability of seals foraging was highest <5 km from active fishing nets (51%) and decreased as distance to nets increased. However, seals used sites <5 km from active fishing nets only 3% of their time at sea highlighting an important temporal dimension in seal-fishery interactions. By coupling high-resolution oceanographic, fisheries, and grey seal movement data, our study provides a scientific basis for designing management strategies that satisfy ecological and socioeconomic demands on marine ecosystems.

Ocean recoveries for tomorrow’s Earth: Hitting a moving target

Growing scientific awareness, strong regulations, and effective management have begun to fulfill the promise of recovery in the ocean. However, many efforts toward ocean recovery remain unsuccessful, in part because marine ecosystems and the human societies that depend upon them are constantly changing. Furthermore, recovery efforts are embedded in marine social-ecological systems where large-scale dynamics can inhibit recovery. We argue that the ways forward are to (i) rethink an inclusive definition of recovery that embraces a diversity of stakeholder perspectives about acceptable recovery goals and ecosystem outcomes; (ii) encourage research that enables anticipation of feasible recovery states and identifies pathways toward resilient ecosystems; and (iii) adopt policies that are sufficiently nimble to keep pace with rapid change and governance that works seamlessly from local to regional scales. Application of these principles can facilitate successful recoveries in a world where environmental conditions and social imperatives are constantly shifting.

Criteria for a good catch: A conceptual framework to guide sourcing of sustainable salmon fisheries

The identification of sustainably managed fisheries is problematic for marketers and consumers of Pacific salmon food products owing to lack of well-defined and robust criteria that take into account current ecosystem science of salmon. We present the rationale for an alternative conceptual framework for salmon management that supports the development of sustainable sourcing criteria. Our approach contrasts with current large-scale fisheries certification programs such as that of the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and general consumer recommendation services such as Monterey Bay Aquarium’s Seafood Watch (SFW) program. Our framework is based on the “place-based” character of salmon populations and recognition of fundamental aspects of salmon ecology, particularly the evolution of population life histories that are locally adapted to freshwater spawning and rearing habitats. We describe how this framework underpins development of science-based sourcing criteria and how it differs in important respects from the industrial approach that historically and currently is the basis for most salmon management. We conclude with a discussion of how the framework and its application may provide a model for redirecting salmon management, in general, towards a more science- and place-based approach and why that is likely to be sustainable in the long term in a way that most contemporary salmon management is not.

Large-scale molecular diet analysis in a generalist marine mammal reveals male preference for prey of conservation concern

Sex-specific diet information is important in the determination of predator impacts on prey populations. Unfortunately, the diet of males and females can be difficult to describe, particularly when they are marine predators. We combined two molecular techniques to describe haul-out use and prey preferences of male and female harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) from Comox and Cowichan Bay (Canada) during 2012-2013. DNA metabarcoding quantified the diet proportions comprised of prey species in harbor seal scat, and qPCR determined the sex of the individual that deposited each scat. Using 287 female and 260 male samples, we compared the monthly sex ratio with GLMs and analyzed prey consumption relative to sex, season, site, and year with PERMANOVA. The sex ratio between monthly samples differed widely in both years (range = 12%-79% males) and showed different patterns at each haul-out site. Male and female diet differed across both years and sites: Females consumed a high proportion of demersal fish species while males consumed more salmonid species. Diet composition was related to both sex and season (PERMANOVA: R 2 = 27%, p < 0.001; R 2 = 24%, p < 0.001, respectively) and their interaction (PERMANOVA: R 2 = 11%, p < 0.001). Diet differences between males and females were consistent across site and year, suggesting fundamental foraging differences, including that males may have a larger impact on salmonids than females. Our novel combination of techniques allowed for both prey taxonomic and spatiotemporal resolution unprecedented in marine predators.

Counting with DNA in metabarcoding studies: How should we convert sequence reads to dietary data?

Advances in DNA sequencing technology have revolutionized the field of molecular analysis of trophic interactions, and it is now possible to recover counts of food DNA sequences from a wide range of dietary samples. But what do these counts mean? To obtain an accurate estimate of a consumer's diet should we work strictly with data sets summarizing frequency of occurrence of different food taxa, or is it possible to use relative number of sequences? Both approaches are applied to obtain semi-quantitative diet summaries, but occurrence data are often promoted as a more conservative and reliable option due to taxa-specific biases in recovery of sequences. We explore representative dietary metabarcoding data sets and point out that diet summaries based on occurrence data often overestimate the importance of food consumed in small quantities (potentially including low-level contaminants) and are sensitive to the count threshold used to define an occurrence. Our simulations indicate that using relative read abundance (RRA) information often provides a more accurate view of population-level diet even with moderate recovery biases incorporated; however, RRA summaries are sensitive to recovery biases impacting common diet taxa. Both approaches are more accurate when the mean number of food taxa in samples is small. The ideas presented here highlight the need to consider all sources of bias and to justify the methods used to interpret count data in dietary metabarcoding studies. We encourage researchers to continue addressing methodological challenges and acknowledge unanswered questions to help spur future investigations in this rapidly developing area of research.

Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) genome and transcriptome

When unifying genomic resources among studies and comparing data between species, there is often no better resource than a genome sequence. Having a reference genome for the Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) will enable the extensive genomic resources available for Pacific salmon, Atlantic salmon, and rainbow trout to be leveraged when asking questions related to the Chinook salmon. The Chinook salmon's wide distribution, long cultural impact, evolutionary history, substantial hatchery production, and recent wild-population decline make it an important research species. In this study, we sequenced and assembled the genome of a Chilliwack River Hatchery female Chinook salmon (gynogenetic and homozygous at all loci). With a reference genome sequence, new questions can be asked about the nature of this species, and its role in a rapidly changing world.