Climate Degradation and Extreme Icing Events Constrain Life in Cold-Adapted Mammals

Snow avalanches are a primary climate-linked driver of mountain ungulate populations

Snow is a major, climate-sensitive feature of the Earth's surface and catalyst of fundamentally important ecosystem processes. Understanding how snow influences sentinel species in rapidly changing mountain ecosystems is particularly critical. Whereas effects of snow on food availability, energy expenditure, and predation are well documented, we report how avalanches exert major impacts on an ecologically significant mountain ungulate - the coastal Alaskan mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). Using long-term GPS data and field observations across four populations (421 individuals over 17 years), we show that avalanches caused 23-65% of all mortality, depending on area. Deaths varied seasonally and were directly linked to spatial movement patterns and avalanche terrain use. Population-level avalanche mortality, 61% of which comprised reproductively important prime-aged individuals, averaged 8% annually and exceeded 22% when avalanche conditions were severe. Our findings reveal a widespread but previously undescribed pathway by which snow can elicit major population-level impacts and shape demographic characteristics of slow-growing populations of mountain-adapted animals.

Fatty acid metabolism decreased while sexual selection increased in brown rats spreading south

For mammals that originate in the cold north, adapting to warmer environments is crucial for southwards invasion. The brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) originated in Northeast China and has become a global pest. R. n. humiliatus (RNH) spread from the northeast, where R. n. caraco (RNC) lives, to North China and diverged to form a subspecies. Genomic analyses revealed that subspecies differentiation was promoted by temperature but impeded by gene flow and that genes related to fatty acid metabolism were under the strongest selection. Transcriptome analyses revealed downregulated hepatic genes related to fatty acid metabolism and upregulated those related to pheromones in RNH vs. RNC. Similar patterns were observed in relation to cold/warm acclimation. RNH preferred mates with stronger pheromone signals intra-populationally and more genetic divergence inter-populationally. We concluded that RNH experienced reduced fat utilization and increased pheromone-mediated sexual selection during its invasion from the cold north to warm south.

An integrative and multi-indicator approach for wildlife health applied to an endangered caribou herd

Assessing wildlife health in remote regions requires a multi-faceted approach, which commonly involves convenient samplings and the need of identifying and targeting relevant and informative indicators. We applied a novel wildlife health framework and critically assessed the value of different indicators for understanding the health status and trends of an endangered tundra caribou population. Samples and data from the Dolphin and Union caribou herd were obtained between 2015 and 2021, from community-based surveillance programs and from captured animals. We documented and categorized indicators into health determinants (infectious diseases and trace elements), processes (cortisol, pathology), and health outcomes (pregnancy and body condition). During a recent period of steep population decline, our results indicated a relatively good body condition and pregnancy rates, and decreasing levels of stress, along with a low adult cow survival. We detected multiple factors as potential contributors to the reduced survival, including Brucella suis biovar 4, Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae and lower hair trace minerals. These results remark the need of targeted studies to improve detection and investigations on caribou mortalities. We also identified differences in health indicators between captured and hunter sampled caribou, highlighting the importance of accounting for sampling biases. This integrative approach that drew on multiple data sources has provided unprecedented knowledge on the health in this herd and highlights the value of documenting individual animal health to understand causes of wildlife declines.

Sub-zero temperatures and large-scale weather patterns induce tooth damage in Icelandic arctic foxes

Tooth damage in carnivores can reflect shifts in both diet and feeding habits, and in large carnivores, it is associated with increased bone consumption. Variation in tooth condition in Icelandic arctic foxes, a mesocarnivore, was recorded from 854 individual foxes spanning 29 years. We hypothesized that annual climatic variations, which can influence food abundance and accessibility, will influence tooth condition by causing dietary shifts toward less edible prey. We examined tooth condition in relation to four climatic predictors: mean annual winter temperature, indices of both the El Niño anomaly and North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), and the number of rain-on-snow days (ROS). We found unequivocal evidence for a strong effect of annual climate on tooth condition. Teeth of Icelandic foxes were in better condition when winter temperatures were higher, when the SPG was more positive, and when the number of ROS was low. We also found a substantial subregional effect with foxes from northeastern Iceland having lower tooth damage than those from two western sites. Contradicting our original hypothesis that foxes from northeastern Iceland, where foxes are known to scavenge on large mammal remains (e.g., sheep and horses), would show the highest tooth damage, we suggest that western coastal sites exhibited greater tooth damage because cold winter temperatures lowered the availability of seabirds, causing a shift in diet toward abrasive marine subsidies (e.g., bivalves) and frozen beach wrack. Our study shows that monitoring tooth breakage and wear can be a useful tool for evaluating the impact of climate on carnivore populations and that climate change may influence the condition and fitness of carnivores in complex and potentially conflicting ways.

A Review of Circumpolar Arctic Marine Mammal Health-A Call to Action in a Time of Rapid Environmental Change

The impacts of climate change on the health of marine mammals are increasingly being recognised. Given the rapid rate of environmental change in the Arctic, the potential ramifications on the health of marine mammals in this region are a particular concern. There are eleven endemic Arctic marine mammal species (AMMs) comprising three cetaceans, seven pinnipeds, and the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). All of these species are dependent on sea ice for survival, particularly those requiring ice for breeding. As air and water temperatures increase, additional species previously non-resident in Arctic waters are extending their ranges northward, leading to greater species overlaps and a concomitant increased risk of disease transmission. In this study, we review the literature documenting disease presence in Arctic marine mammals to understand the current causes of morbidity and mortality in these species and forecast future disease issues. Our review highlights potential pathogen occurrence in a changing Arctic environment, discussing surveillance methods for 35 specific pathogens, identifying risk factors associated with these diseases, as well as making recommendations for future monitoring for emerging pathogens. Several of the pathogens discussed have the potential to cause unusual mortality events in AMMs. Brucella, morbillivirus, influenza A virus, and Toxoplasma gondii are all of concern, particularly with the relative naivety of the immune systems of endemic Arctic species. There is a clear need for increased surveillance to understand baseline disease levels and address the gravity of the predicted impacts of climate change on marine mammal species.

Hunting for ecological indicators: are large herbivore skeleton measures from harvest data useful proxies for monitoring?

Hunter-collected data and samples are used as indices of population performance, and monitoring programs often take advantage of such data as ecological indicators. Here, we establish the relationships between measures of skeleton size (lower jawbone length and hind-leg length) and autumn carcass mass of slaughtered individuals of known age and sex of the high Arctic and endemic Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus). We assess these relationships using a long-term monitoring dataset derived from hunted or culled reindeer. The two skeleton measures were generally strongly correlated within age class. Both jaw length (R2 = 0.78) and hind-leg length (R2 = 0.74) represented good proxies of carcass mass. These relationships were primarily due to an age effect (i.e. due to growth) as the skeleton measures reached an asymptotic size at 4–6 years of age. Accordingly, strong positive correlations between skeleton measures and carcass mass were mainly evident at the young age classes (range r [0.45–0.84] for calves and yearlings). For the adults, these relationships weakened due to skeletal growth ceasing in mature animals causing increased variance in mass with age—potentially due to the expected substantial impacts of annual environmental fluctuations. As proxies for carcass mass, skeleton measurements should therefore be limited to young individuals. Although body mass is the ‘gold standard’ in monitoring large herbivores, our results indicate that skeleton measures collected by hunters only provide similar valuable information for young age classes, particularly calves and yearlings. In sum, jaw length and hind-leg length function as proxies identical to body mass when documenting the impacts of changing environmental conditions on important state variables for reindeer and other herbivores inhabiting highly variable environments.

Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.

Colour moult phenology and camouflage mismatch in polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes

Species that seasonally moult from brown to white to match snowy backgrounds become conspicuous and experience increased predation risk as snow cover duration declines. Long-term adaptation to camouflage mismatch in a changing climate might occur through phenotypic plasticity in colour moult phenology and or evolutionary shifts in moult rate or timing. Also, adaptation may include evolutionary shifts towards winter brown phenotypes that forgo the winter white moult. Most studies of these processes have occurred in winter white populations, with little attention to polymorphic populations with sympatric winter brown and winter white morphs. Here, we used remote camera traps to record moult phenology and mismatch in two polymorphic populations of Arctic foxes in Sweden over 2 years. We found that the colder, more northern population moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring. Next, foxes moulted earlier in the autumn and later in the spring during colder and snowier years. Finally, white foxes experienced relatively low camouflage mismatch while blue foxes were mismatched against snowy backgrounds most of the autumn through the spring. Because the brown-on-white mismatch imposes no evident costs, we predict that as snow duration decreases, increasing blue morph frequencies might help facilitate species persistence.

Muskoxen homogenise soil microbial communities and affect the abundance of methanogens and methanotrophs

Grazing herbivores may affect soil microbial communities indirectly by impacting soil structure and vegetation composition. In high arctic environments, this impact is poorly elucidated, while having potentially wide-reaching effects on the ecosystem. This study examines how a key arctic herbivore, the muskox Ovibos moschatus, affects the soil microbial community in a high arctic fen. Environmental DNA was extracted from soil samples taken from grazed control plots and from muskox exclosures established 5 years prior. We sequenced amplicons of the 16S rRNA gene to provide insight into the microbial communities. We found that in the grazed control plots, microbial communities exhibited high evenness and displayed highly similar overall diversity. In plots where muskoxen had been excluded, microbial diversity was significantly reduced, and had more uneven intra-sample populations and overall lower ecological richness and evenness. We observed that the composition of microbial communities in grazed soils were significantly affected by the presence of muskoxen, as seen by elevated relative abundances of Bacteroides and Firmicutes, two major phyla found in muskox faeces. Furthermore, an increase in relative abundance of bacteria involved in degradation of recalcitrant carbohydrates and cycling of nitrogen was observed in grazed soil. Ungrazed soils displayed increased abundances of bacteria potentially involved in anaerobic oxidation of methane, whereas some methanogens were more abundant in grazed soils. This corroborates a previous finding that methane emissions are higher in arctic fens under muskox grazing. Our results show that the presence of large herbivores stimulates soil microbial diversity and has a homogenizing influence on the inter-species dynamics in soil microbial communities. The findings of this study, thus, improve our understanding of the effect of herbivore grazing on arctic ecosystems and the derived methane cycling.

Migratory movements of Atlantic puffins Fratercula arctica naumanni from high Arctic Greenland

Although the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica is well studied throughout its temperate and low Arctic breeding range, few have studied the species in its far northern distribution. This study is the first to present data on the migratory movements of the "large-billed" subspecies, F. a. naumanni, that breeds in the high Arctic and which has significantly larger body size than those farther south. During 2013-2015, migration tracks were collected from nine adult puffins (6 males and 3 females) tagged with geolocators in northwest Greenland. Overall, female puffins traveled farther than males on their annual migration, with one female puffin traveling over 13,600 km, which was nearly a third farther than any tagged male in our study. Differential migration was observed in migratory phenology and route, with males using a form of chain migration with acute synchrony between individuals while females appeared to largely use leap-frog migration and showed little synchrony between individuals. Extreme sexual segregation in wintering areas was evidenced by two females that migrated to the southern limit of the species' range while the six males remained at the northern limit, and wintered along the sea ice edge during portions of the non-breeding season. Male puffins thus wintered in regions with sea surface temperatures up to 10° C cooler than female puffins, and in areas with generally colder sea surface temperatures when compared to previously known wintering areas of temperate and low Arctic puffin breeding populations. The degree to which body size enables male F. a. naumanni to remain in colder waters likely reflects differing life history constraints between sexes and populations (i.e., subspecies). Further study is warranted to investigate how recent changes in climate have further exacerbated the observed differences between sexes in high Arctic puffins and possibly other marine avian species.

Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics

Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10-80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage availability across the Arctic.

Using community photography to investigate phenology: A case study of coat molt in the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) with missing data

Participatory approaches, such as community photography, can engage the public in questions of societal and scientific interest while helping advance understanding of ecological patterns and processes. We combined data extracted from community-sourced, spatially explicit photographs with research findings from 2018 fieldwork in the Yukon, Canada, to evaluate winter coat molt patterns and phenology in mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), a cold-adapted, alpine mammal. Leveraging the community science portals iNaturalist and CitSci, in less than a year we amassed a database of almost seven hundred unique photographs spanning some 4,500 km between latitudes 37.6°N and 61.1°N from 0 to 4,333 m elevation. Using statistical methods accounting for incomplete data, a common issue in community science datasets, we identified the effects of intrinsic (sex and presence of offspring) and broad environmental (latitude and elevation) factors on molt onset and rate and compared our findings with published data. Shedding occurred over a 3-month period between 29 May and 6 September. Effects of sex and offspring on the timing of molt were consistent between the community-sourced and our Yukon data and with findings on wild mountain goats at a long-term research site in west-central Alberta, Canada. Males molted first, followed by females without offspring (4.4 days later in the coarse-grained, geographically wide community science sample; 29.2 days later in our fine-grained Yukon sample) and lastly females with new kids (6.2; 21.2 days later, respectively). Shedding was later at higher elevations and faster at northern latitudes. Our findings establish a basis for employing community photography to examine broad-scale questions about the timing of ecological events, as well as sex differences in response to possible climate drivers. In addition, community photography can help inspire public participation in environmental and outdoor activities specifically with reference to iconic wildlife.

An application of upscaled optimal foraging theory using hidden Markov modelling: year-round behavioural variation in a large arctic herbivore

BACKGROUND

In highly seasonal environments, animals face critical decisions regarding time allocation, diet optimisation, and habitat use. In the Arctic, the short summers are crucial for replenishing body reserves, while low food availability and increased energetic demands characterise the long winters (9-10 months). Under such extreme seasonal variability, even small deviations from optimal time allocation can markedly impact individuals' condition, reproductive success and survival. We investigated which environmental conditions influenced daily, seasonal, and interannual variation in time allocation in high-arctic muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) and evaluated whether results support qualitative predictions derived from upscaled optimal foraging theory.

METHODS

Using hidden Markov models (HMMs), we inferred behavioural states (foraging, resting, relocating) from hourly positions of GPS-collared females tracked in northeast Greenland (28 muskox-years). To relate behavioural variation to environmental conditions, we considered a wide range of spatially and/or temporally explicit covariates in the HMMs.

RESULTS

While we found little interannual variation, daily and seasonal time allocation varied markedly. Scheduling of daily activities was distinct throughout the year except for the period of continuous daylight. During summer, muskoxen spent about 69% of time foraging and 19% resting, without environmental constraints on foraging activity. During winter, time spent foraging decreased to 45%, whereas about 43% of time was spent resting, mediated by longer resting bouts than during summer.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results clearly indicate that female muskoxen follow an energy intake maximisation strategy during the arctic summer. During winter, our results were not easily reconcilable with just one dominant foraging strategy. The overall reduction in activity likely reflects higher time requirements for rumination in response to the reduction of forage quality (supporting an energy intake maximisation strategy). However, deep snow and low temperatures were apparent constraints to winter foraging, hence also suggesting attempts to conserve energy (net energy maximisation strategy). Our approach provides new insights into the year-round behavioural strategies of the largest Arctic herbivore and outlines a practical example of how to approximate qualitative predictions of upscaled optimal foraging theory using multi-year GPS tracking data.

Muskox status, recent variation, and uncertain future

Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are an integral component of Arctic biodiversity. Given low genetic diversity, their ability to respond to future and rapid Arctic change is unknown, although paleontological history demonstrates adaptability within limits. We discuss status and limitations of current monitoring, and summarize circumpolar status and recent variations, delineating all 55 endemic or translocated populations. Acknowledging uncertainties, global abundance is ca 170 000 muskoxen. Not all populations are thriving. Six populations are in decline, and as recently as the turn of the century, one of these was the largest population in the world, equaling ca 41% of today's total abundance. Climate, diseases, and anthropogenic changes are likely the principal drivers of muskox population change and result in multiple stressors that vary temporally and spatially. Impacts to muskoxen are precipitated by habitat loss/degradation, altered vegetation and species associations, pollution, and harvest. Which elements are relevant for a specific population will vary, as will their cumulative interactions. Our summaries highlight the importance of harmonizing existing data, intensifying long-term monitoring efforts including demographics and health assessments, standardizing and implementing monitoring protocols, and increasing stakeholder engagement/contributions.

Seeking snow and breathing hard - Behavioral tactics in high elevation mammals to combat warming temperatures

The world glaciers and areas of persistent summer snowpack are being lost due to warming temperatures. For cold-adapted species, habitat features may offer opportunities for cooling during summer heat yet the loss of snow and ice may compromise derived thermoregulatory benefits. Herein we offer insights about habitat selection for snow and the extent to which other behavioral adjustments reduce thermal debt among high elevation mammals. Specifically, we concentrate on respiration in mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus), a species whose native distribution is currently tied to northern mountain ranges of North America, where large patches of persistent summer snow are declining, and which became extinct during geologically warmer epochs. To examine sensitivity to possible thermal stressors and use of summer snow cover, we tracked marked and unmarked mountain goats in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, to test hypotheses about selection for cold microclimates including shade and snow during periods of relatively high temperature. To understand functional responses of habitat choices, we measured microhabitat temperatures and a component of goat physiology–breaths per minute–as an index for metabolic expenditure. Individuals 1) selected areas closer to snow on warmer summer days, and 2) on snow had a 15% mean reduction in respiration when accounting for other factors, which suggests remnant snow plays an important role in mediating effects of air temperature. The use of shade was not as an important variable in models explaining respiration. Despite the loss of 85% of glaciers in in Glacier National Park, summer’s remnant snow patches are an important reservoir by which animals reduce heat stress and potential hyperthermia. Our findings, when contextualized with behavioral strategies deployed by other high elevation mammalian taxa help frame how ambient temperatures may be modulated, and they offer a direct way by which to assess susceptibility to increasing heat in cold-adapted species.

Already at the bottom? Demographic declines are unlikely further to undermine genetic diversity of a large Arctic ungulate: muskox, Ovibos moschatus (Artiodactyla: Bovidae)

Low genetic diversity is associated with low fitness and evolutionary potential, yet the demographic and life-history traits of some species contribute to low genetic diversity, without empirical evidence of negative impacts on fitness. Modelling past and future trajectories of genetic diversity under different demographic scenarios can provide insight into how genetic variation might impact population fitness. The muskox is an Arctic species that has undergone multiple population bottlenecks and, although populations have rebounded repeatedly, two large populations have recently declined by > 50%. It is unclear how these demographic patterns influence muskox genetic diversity and fitness. We compared the genetic diversity of Canadian muskox populations undergoing opposing population trends. Genotyping 84 mainland and 244 Victoria Island individuals at ten microsatellite loci revealed low genetic variation (Victoria Island, mean allelic richness 1.66, expected heterozygosity 0.16; mainland, mean allelic richness 2.58, expected heterozygosity 0.41), with no evidence of further reductions in diversity subsequent to recent demographic declines. Bayesian modelling showed that a 1900s bottleneck contributed to the lack of diversity in contemporary populations, and forward-in-time simulations suggested little effect on genetic diversity over the next 100 years. Muskoxen might have reached a genetic diversity minimum, and additional research will be needed to determine their capacity to adapt to rapid changes in selective pressures in a rapidly changing Arctic.

Spatial heterogeneity in climate change effects decouples the long-term dynamics of wild reindeer populations in the high Arctic

The 'Moran effect' predicts that dynamics of populations of a species are synchronized over similar distances as their environmental drivers. Strong population synchrony reduces species viability, but spatial heterogeneity in density dependence, the environment, or its ecological responses may decouple dynamics in space, preventing extinctions. How such heterogeneity buffers impacts of global change on large-scale population dynamics is not well studied. Here, we show that spatially autocorrelated fluctuations in annual winter weather synchronize wild reindeer dynamics across high-Arctic Svalbard, while, paradoxically, spatial variation in winter climate trends contribute to diverging local population trajectories. Warmer summers have improved the carrying capacity and apparently led to increased total reindeer abundance. However, fluctuations in population size seem mainly driven by negative effects of stochastic winter rain-on-snow (ROS) events causing icing, with strongest effects at high densities. Count data for 10 reindeer populations 8-324 km apart suggested that density-dependent ROS effects contributed to synchrony in population dynamics, mainly through spatially autocorrelated mortality. By comparing one coastal and one 'continental' reindeer population over four decades, we show that locally contrasting abundance trends can arise from spatial differences in climate change and responses to weather. The coastal population experienced a larger increase in ROS, and a stronger density-dependent ROS effect on population growth rates, than the continental population. In contrast, the latter experienced stronger summer warming and showed the strongest positive response to summer temperatures. Accordingly, contrasting net effects of a recent climate regime shift-with increased ROS and harsher winters, yet higher summer temperatures and improved carrying capacity-led to negative and positive abundance trends in the coastal and continental population respectively. Thus, synchronized population fluctuations by climatic drivers can be buffered by spatial heterogeneity in the same drivers, as well as in the ecological responses, averaging out climate change effects at larger spatial scales.

Role of Surface Melt and Icing Events in Livestock Mortality across Mongolia’s Semi-Arid Landscape

Livestock production is a socioeconomic linchpin in Mongolia and is affected by large-scale livestock die-offs. Colloquially known as dzuds, these die-offs are driven by anomalous climatic events, including extreme cold temperatures, extended snow cover duration (SCD) and drought. As average temperatures across Mongolia have increased at roughly twice the global rate, we hypothesized that increasing cold season surface melt including soil freeze/thaw (FT), snowmelt, and icing events associated with regional warming have become increasingly important drivers of dzud events as they can reduce pasture productivity and inhibit access to grazing. Here, we use daily brightness temperature (Tb) observations to identify anomalous surface melt and icing events across Mongolia from 2003–2016 and their contribution to dzuds relative to other climatic drivers, including winter temperatures, SCD, and drought. We find a positive relationship between surface melt and icing events and livestock mortality during the fall in southern Mongolia and during the spring in the central and western regions. Further, anomalous seasonal surface melt and icing events explain 17–34% of the total variance in annual livestock mortality, with cold temperatures as the leading contributor of dzuds (20–37%). Summer drought showed the greatest explanatory power (43%) but overall had less statistically significant relationships relative to winter temperatures. Our results indicate that surface melt and icing events will become an increasingly important driver of dzuds as annual temperatures and livestock populations are projected to increase in Mongolia.

More frequent extreme climate events stabilize reindeer population dynamics

Extreme climate events often cause population crashes but are difficult to account for in population-dynamic studies. Especially in long-lived animals, density dependence and demography may induce lagged impacts of perturbations on population growth. In Arctic ungulates, extreme rain-on-snow and ice-locked pastures have led to severe population crashes, indicating that increasingly frequent rain-on-snow events could destabilize populations. Here, using empirically parameterized, stochastic population models for High-Arctic wild reindeer, we show that more frequent rain-on-snow events actually reduce extinction risk and stabilize population dynamics due to interactions with age structure and density dependence. Extreme rain-on-snow events mainly suppress vital rates of vulnerable ages at high population densities, resulting in a crash and a new population state with resilient ages and reduced population sensitivity to subsequent icy winters. Thus, observed responses to single extreme events are poor predictors of population dynamics and persistence because internal density-dependent feedbacks act as a buffer against more frequent events.

Impact of recent and future climate change on vector-borne diseases

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to human health in the 21st century. Climate directly impacts health through climatic extremes, air quality, sea-level rise, and multifaceted influences on food production systems and water resources. Climate also affects infectious diseases, which have played a significant role in human history, impacting the rise and fall of civilizations and facilitating the conquest of new territories. Our review highlights significant regional changes in vector and pathogen distribution reported in temperate, peri-Arctic, Arctic, and tropical highland regions during recent decades, changes that have been anticipated by scientists worldwide. Further future changes are likely if we fail to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Many key factors affect the spread and severity of human diseases, including mobility of people, animals, and goods; control measures in place; availability of effective drugs; quality of public health services; human behavior; and political stability and conflicts. With drug and insecticide resistance on the rise, significant funding and research efforts must to be maintained to continue the battle against existing and emerging diseases, particularly those that are vector borne.