Modeling and mapping the burden of disease in Kenya

Burden and risk factors of mental and substance use disorders among adolescents and young adults in Kenya: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Mental and substance use disorders are a major public health concern globally, with high rates of disability, morbidity, and mortality associated with these. In low- and middle-income countries, such as Kenya, mental health is often given low priority, and resources for the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders are limited. Adolescence and young adulthood are critical periods for the development of mental and substance use disorders, with many disorders emerging during this time. In Kenya, the burden and risk factors of mental and substance use disorders among adolescents and young adults is not well understood.

Methods

The data used in this study were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We selected the data on the number of mental and substance use disorders among adolescents and young adults in Kenya from the GBD results tool. The data were extracted by mental health (MH) condition, by age group and by sex. We used descriptive statistical methods to summarise and present the data. Specifically, we calculated the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates, risk factors of mental and substance use disorders by age group and sex.

Findings

In 2019, among 10-24-year-olds in Kenya, mental disorders ranked as the second leading cause of disability, following unintentional injuries, and accounted for 248,936 [95% uncertainty interval 175,033; 341,680] DALYs or 9.4% of 2,656,546 total DALYs. Substance use disorders accounted 15,022 [9948; 20,710] DALYs. Depressive, anxiety, and conduct disorders accounted for the most DALYs of mental disorders accounting for 3.1%, 2.3% and 1.7% of the total DALYs, respectively. The main risk factors for incident DALYs in 10-24-year-olds were bullying and victimization (66.5%). Childhood sexual abuse accounted for 13.7% of the DALYs, lead exposure accounted for 8.5% of the DALYs, intimate partner violence accounted for 11.3% of the DALYs (2%) with all victims being females, and illicit drug use accounted for (52.7%) of DALYs.

Interpretation

Improved surveillance of mental health and substance use burden at national and county levels is needed. Focus on timely screening and intervention for idiopathic developmental intellectual disability, conduct disorder, and substance use disorder in young boys and depression, anxiety, and eating disorders in young girls and women is critically needed.

Funding

MK is funded by FIC/NIMH K43 TW 010716 and R33MH124149-03. The publication was made possible by funding from the Gates Foundation.

High seroprevalence of Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and IgM antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals amidst vaccination roll-out in western Kenya

The population's antibody response is a key factor in comprehending SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology. This is especially important in African settings where COVID-19 impact, and vaccination rates are relatively low. This study aimed at characterizing the Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and Immunoglobulin M (IgM) in both SARS-CoV-2 asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals in Kisumu and Siaya counties in western Kenya using enzyme linked immunosorbent assays. The IgG and IgM overall seroprevalence in 98 symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in western Kenya between December 2021-March 2022 was 76.5% (95% CI = 66.9-84.5) and 29.6% (95% CI = 20.8-39.7) respectively. In terms of gender, males had slightly higher IgG positivity 87.5% (35/40) than females 68.9% (40/58). Amidst the ongoing vaccination roll-out during the study period, over half of the study participants (55.1%, 95% CI = 44.7-65.2) had not received any vaccine. About one third, (31.6%, 95% CI = 22.6-41.8) of the study participants had been fully vaccinated, with close to a quarter (13.3% 95% CI = 7.26-21.6) partially vaccinated. When considering the vaccination status and seroprevalence, out of the 31 fully vaccinated individuals, IgG seropositivity was 81.1% (95% CI = 70.2-96.3) and IgM seropositivity was 35.5% (95% CI = 19.22-54.6). Out of the participants that had not been vaccinated at all, IgG seroprevalence was 70.4% (95% CI 56.4-82.0) with 20.4% (95% CI 10.6-33.5) seropositivity for IgM antibodies. On PCR testing, 33.7% were positive, with 66.3% negative. The 32 positive individuals included 12(37.5%) fully vaccinated, 8(25%) partially vaccinated and 12(37.5%) unvaccinated. SARs-CoV-2 PCR positivity did not significantly predict IgG (p = 0.469 [95% CI 0.514-4.230]) and IgM (p = 0.964 [95% CI 0.380-2.516]) positivity. These data indicate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in western Kenya. This suggests that a larger fraction of the population was infected with SARS-CoV-2 within the defined period than what PCR testing could cover.

The impact of child health interventions and risk factors on child survival in Kenya, 1993-2014: a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis with counterfactual scenarios

BACKGROUND

During the millennium development goals period, reduction in under-five mortality (U5M) and increases in child health intervention coverage were characterised by sub-national disparities and inequities across Kenya. The contribution of changing risk factors and intervention coverage on the sub-national changes in U5M remains poorly defined.

METHODS

Sub-national county-level data on U5M and 43 factors known to be associated with U5M spanning 1993 and 2014 were assembled. Using a Bayesian ecological mixed-effects regression model, the relationships between U5M and significant intervention and infection risk ecological factors were quantified across 47 sub-national counties. The coefficients generated were used within a counterfactual framework to estimate U5M and under-five deaths averted (U5-DA) for every county and year (1993-2014) associated with changes in the coverage of interventions and disease infection prevalence relative to 1993.

RESULTS

Nationally, the stagnation and increase in U5M in the 1990s were associated with rising human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and reduced maternal autonomy while improvements after 2006 were associated with a decline in the prevalence of HIV and malaria, increase in access to better sanitation, fever treatment-seeking rates and maternal autonomy. Reduced stunting and increased coverage of early breastfeeding and institutional deliveries were associated with a smaller number of U5-DA compared to other factors while a reduction in high parity and fully immunised children were associated with under-five lives lost. Most of the U5-DA occurred after 2006 and varied spatially across counties. The highest number of U5-DA was recorded in western and coastal Kenya while northern Kenya recorded a lower number of U5-DA than western. Central Kenya had the lowest U5-DA. The deaths averted across the different regions were associated with a unique set of factors.

CONCLUSION

Contributions of interventions and risk factors to changing U5M vary sub-nationally. This has important implications for targeting future interventions within decentralised health systems such as those operated in Kenya. Targeting specific factors where U5M has been high and intervention coverage poor would lead to the highest likelihood of sub-national attainment of sustainable development goal (SDG) 3.2 on U5M in Kenya.

Determinants of subnational disparities in antenatal care utilisation: a spatial analysis of demographic and health survey data in Kenya

BACKGROUND

The spatial variation in antenatal care (ANC) utilisation is likely associated with disparities observed in maternal and neonatal deaths. Most maternal deaths are preventable through services offered during ANC; however, estimates of ANC coverage at lower decision-making units (sub-county) is mostly lacking. In this study, we aimed to estimate the coverage of at least four ANC (ANC4) visits at the sub-county level using the 2014 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS 2014) and identify factors associated with ANC utilisation in Kenya.

METHODS

Data from the KDHS 2014 was used to compute sub-county estimates of ANC4 using small area estimation (SAE) techniques which relied on spatial relatedness to yield precise and reliable estimates at each of the 295 sub-counties. Hierarchical mixed-effect logistic regression was used to identify factors influencing ANC4 utilisation. Sub-county estimates of factors significantly associated with ANC utilisation were produced using SAE techniques and mapped to visualise disparities.

RESULTS

The coverage of ANC4 across sub-counties was heterogeneous, ranging from a low of 17% in Mandera West sub-county to over 77% in Nakuru Town West and Ruiru sub-counties. Thirty-one per cent of the 295 sub-counties had coverage of less than 50%. Maternal education, household wealth, place of delivery, marital status, age at first marriage, and birth order were all associated with ANC utilisation. The areas with low ANC4 utilisation rates corresponded to areas of low socioeconomic status, fewer educated women and a small number of health facility deliveries.

CONCLUSION

Suboptimal coverage of ANC4 and its heterogeneity at sub-county level calls for urgent, focused and localised approaches to improve access to antenatal care services. Policy formulation and resources allocation should rely on data-driven strategies to guide national and county governments achieve equity in access and utilisation of health interventions.

Spatial evaluation of prevalence, pattern and predictors of cervical cancer screening in India

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the social determinants of cervical cancer screening and report the locations vulnerable to poor utilization of cervical cancer screening services.

STUDY DESIGN

An ecological study with the data derived from fourth round of the National Family Health Survey conducted in India in the period 2015-2016.

METHODS

The study focused on the percentage of women who have never undergone cervical cancer screening across 639 districts in India. Moran's I statistic was used to investigate the overall clustering of location. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistic was used for the detection of significant local clusters. Spatial error, spatial lag, spatial Durbin and spatial Durbin error models were compared, and the model with best fit was reported. ArcGIS, GeoDa and R software were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

The existence of spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.61) necessitates the consideration of spatial component while studying the screening data. A significant clustering of districts with poor screening has been observed in the North-Central and North-Eastern regions of India. The geographic arrangement of the percentage of women who have undergone cervical cancer screening was associated with the percentage of women with poor wealth index (P < 0.001), not using a modern method of contraception (P < 0.001), residing in rural areas (P = 0.033) and never heard of sexually transmitted infection (P = 0.014). The range of percentage of women getting cervix screened for cancer was 0.5-68.4%, presenting the heterogeneity among the population elements.

CONCLUSION

A higher risk of poor cervical cancer screening is observed in the districts where most of the women have poor wealth index, reside in urban area, have never heard of sexually transmitted infection and do not use a modern method of contraception.

Sub national variation and inequalities in under-five mortality in Kenya since 1965

Background

Despite significant declines in under five mortality (U5M) over the last 3 decades, Kenya did not achieve Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) by 2015. To better understand trends and inequalities in child mortality, analysis of U5M variation at subnational decision making units is required. Here the comprehensive compilation and analysis of birth history data was used to understand spatio-temporal variation, inequalities and progress towards achieving the reductions targets of U5M between 1965 and 2013 and projected to 2015 at decentralized health planning units (counties) in Kenya.

Methods

Ten household surveys and three censuses with data on birth histories undertaken between 1989 and 2014 were assembled. The birth histories were allocated to the respective counties and demographic methods applied to estimate U5M per county by survey. To generate a single U5M estimate for year and county, a Bayesian spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression was fitted accounting for variation in sample size, surveys and demographic methods. Inequalities and the progress in meeting the goals set to reduce U5M were evaluated subnationally.

Results

Nationally, U5M reduced by 61·6%, from 141·7 (121·6–164·0) in 1965 to 54·5 (44·6–65·5) in 2013. The declining U5M was uneven ranging between 19 and 80% across the counties with some years when rates increased. By 2000, 25 counties had achieved the World Summit for Children goals. However, as of 2015, no county had achieved MDG 4. There was a striking decline in the levels of inequality between counties over time, however, disparities persist. By 2013 there persists a 3·8 times difference between predicted U5M rates when comparing counties with the highest U5M rates against those with the lowest U5M rates.

Conclusion

Kenya has made huge progress in child survival since independence. However, U5M remains high and heterogeneous with substantial differences between counties. Better use of the current resources through focused allocation is required to achieve further reductions, reduce inequalities and increase the likelihood of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3·2 on U5M by 2030.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-6474-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.