Ideal Cardiovascular Health Metrics Associated with Reductions in the Risk of Extracranial Carotid Artery Stenosis: a Population-based Cohort Study

Life's Essential 8 and carotid artery plaques: the Swedish cardiopulmonary bioimage study

Background

To quantify cardiovascular health (CVH), the American Heart Association (AHA) recently launched an updated construct of the "Life's Simple 7" (LS7) score, the "Life's Essential 8" (LE8) score. This study aims to analyse the association between both CVH scores and carotid artery plaques and to compare the predictive capacity of such scores for carotid plaques.

Methods

Randomly recruited participants aged 50-64 years from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) were analysed. According to the AHA definitions, two CVH scores were calculated: i) the LE8 score (0, worst CVH; 100, best CVH) and two different versions of the LS7 score [(0-7) and (0-14), 0 indicating the worst CVH]. Ultrasound-diagnosed carotid plaques were classified as no plaque, unilateral, and bilateral plaques. Associations were studied by adjusted multinomial logistic regression models and adjusted (marginal) prevalences, while comparison between LE8 and LS7 scores was performed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

Results

After exclusions, 28,870 participants remained for analysis (50.3% women). The odds for bilateral carotid plaques were almost five times higher in the lowest LE8 (<50 points) group [OR: 4.93, (95% CI: 4.19-5.79); adjusted prevalence 40.5%, (95% CI: 37.9-43.2)] compared to the highest LE8 (≥80 points) group [adjusted prevalence 17.2%, (95% CI: 16.2-18.1)]. Also, the odds for unilateral carotid plaques were more than two times higher in the lowest LE8 group [OR: 2.14, (95% CI: 1.82-2.51); adjusted prevalence 31.5%, (95% CI: 28.9-34.2)] compared to the highest LE8 group [adjusted prevalence 29.4%, (95% CI: 28.3-30.5)]. The areas under ROC curves were similar between LE8 and LS7 (0-14) scores: for bilateral carotid plaques, 0.622 (95% CI: 0.614-0.630) vs. 0.621 (95% CI: 0.613-0.628), P = 0.578, respectively; and for any carotid plaque, 0.602 (95% CI: 0.596-0.609) vs. 0.600 (95% CI: 0.593-0.607), P = 0.194, respectively.

Conclusion

The new LE8 score showed inverse and dose-response associations with carotid plaques, particularly bilateral plaques. The LE8 did not outperform the conventional LS7 score, which showed similar ability to predict carotid plaques, especially when scored as 0-14 points. We conclude that both the LE8 and LS7 may be useful in clinical practice for monitoring CVH status in the adult population.

Women and ethnoracial minorities with poor cardiovascular health measures associated with a higher risk of developing mood disorder

Background

Mood disorders (MDS) are a type of mental health illness that effects millions of people in the United States. Early prediction of MDS can give providers greater opportunity to treat these disorders. We hypothesized that longitudinal cardiovascular health (CVH) measurements would be informative for MDS prediction.

Methods

To test this hypothesis, the American Heart Association’s Guideline Advantage (TGA) dataset was used, which contained longitudinal EHR from 70 outpatient clinics. The statistical analysis and machine learning models were employed to identify the associations of the MDS and the longitudinal CVH metrics and other confounding factors.

Results

Patients diagnosed with MDS consistently had a higher proportion of poor CVH compared to patients without MDS, with the largest difference between groups for Body mass index (BMI) and Smoking. Race and gender were associated with status of CVH metrics. Approximate 46% female patients with MDS had a poor hemoglobin A1C compared to 44% of those without MDS; 62% of those with MDS had poor BMI compared to 47% of those without MDS; 59% of those with MDS had poor blood pressure (BP) compared to 43% of those without MDS; and 43% of those with MDS were current smokers compared to 17% of those without MDS.

Conclusions

Women and ethnoracial minorities with poor cardiovascular health measures were associated with a higher risk of development of MDS, which indicated the high utility for using routine medical records data collected in care to improve detection and treatment for MDS among patients with poor CVH.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12911-021-01674-9.

Predicting cardiovascular health trajectories in time-series electronic health records with LSTM models

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States (US). Better cardiovascular health (CVH) is associated with CVD prevention. Predicting future CVH levels may help providers better manage patients' CVH. We hypothesized that CVH measures can be predicted based on previous measurements from longitudinal electronic health record (EHR) data.

METHODS

The Guideline Advantage (TGA) dataset was used and contained EHR data from 70 outpatient clinics across the United States (US). We studied predictions of 5 CVH submetrics: smoking status (SMK), body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), hemoglobin A1c (A1C), and low-density lipoprotein (LDL). We applied embedding techniques and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks - to predict future CVH category levels from all the previous CVH measurements of 216,445 unique patients for each CVH submetric.

RESULTS

The LSTM model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUROC): the micro-average AUROC was 0.99 for SMK prediction; 0.97 for BMI; 0.84 for BP; 0.91 for A1C; and 0.93 for LDL prediction. Model performance was not improved by using all 5 submetric measures compared with using single submetric measures.

CONCLUSIONS

We suggest that future CVH levels can be predicted using previous CVH measurements for each submetric, which has implications for population cardiovascular health management. Predicting patients' future CVH levels might directly increase patient CVH health and thus quality of life, while also indirectly decreasing the burden and cost for clinical health system caused by CVD and cancers.

Contemporary Prevalence and risk factors of carotid artery stenosis in asymptomatic low-income Chinese individuals: a population-based study

OBJECTIVES

Carotid artery stenosis (CAS) is an established risk factor for cerebrovascular disease. However, the contemporary prevalence and risk factors of CAS in asymptomatic rural Chinese individuals, especially low-income populations, remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to explore the present prevalence and risk factors of CAS in a low-income Chinese population.

METHODS

A total of 3126 people aged ≥ 45 years without history of stroke or cardiovascular disease were recruited for this study. B-mode ultrasonography was performed to evaluate the presence of CAS. We used multivariate analysis to determine potential risk factors for CAS.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of CAS in this population was 6.7%, with a prevalence of 8.8% for men and 5.0% for women. The risk of CAS increased with older age and a higher level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and fasting blood glucose (FBG) (all P < 0.05). Each 1-mmHg increase in SBP increased the risk of CAS by 0.011 times, each 1-mmol/L increase in LDL-C increased the risk of CAS by 0.192 times, and each 1-mmol/L increase in FBG increased the risk of CAS by 0.067 times. In addition, the risk of CAS increased 52.9% in men compared to that in women, increased 100.2% in current drinkers compared to that in never drinkers, and increased 38.9% in patients with diabetes compared to those without diabetes (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the prevalence of CAS remains high in low-income individuals. Male sex, older age, current drinking, diabetes, and high levels of LDL-C, SBP, and FBG increase the risk of CAS. Thus, to prevent cerebrovascular disease and reduce the severe disease-associated burden for low-income individuals, there is a definitive need to control the risk factors of CAS.

Poor long-term outcomes after carotid endarterectomy: a retrospective analysis of two portuguese centers

Objetives. Carotid endarterectomy (CEA) is an established treatment for carotid stenosis (CS). However, this procedure is not risk-free and it is insufficient to control disseminated atherosclerosis. Our aim was to determine long-term cardiovascular morbidity and mortality after CEA and identify associated risk predictors. Design. Consecutive cohorts of CEAs performed between 2010 and 2018 in two Portuguese hospitals were retrospectively analysed. The major end-points were acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Results. 248 patients (mean age 69 years; 79% male) were enrolled in the study. 24% had postoperative complications. At 52 months median follow-up, 9 ± 2.0% (mean ± standard error) of patients experienced an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), 12 ± 2.4% a stroke and 26 ± 3.2% a MACE. All-cause mortality rate was 21 ± 3.0%. Multivariate analysis identified coronary artery disease (CAD) as significant predictor of AMI (p < .001; Hazard Ratio (HR):9.628; 95% Confidence Interval (95%CI):2.805-33.046), whereas no statistically significant risk factor of stroke was found. Predictors of death included left sided CS (p = .042; HR:1.886; 95%CI:1.024-3.475), chronic kidney disease (CKD) (p = .007; HR:2.352; 95%CI:1.266-4.372) and anticoagulant medication (p = .015; HR:2.107; 95%CI:1.216-6.026), while statin use was significantly protective (p = .049; HR:0.482; 95%CI:0.233-0.998). Concerning MACE, male gender (p = .040; HR:1.709; 95%CI:1.025-2.849), tobacco use (p = .004; HR:2.181; 95%CI:1.277-3.726), CAD (p = .002; HR:2.235; 95%CI:1.340-3.727) and CKD (p < .001; HR:3.029; 95%CI:1.745-5.258) were risk predictors. Conclusions. Patients continue to have high rates of AMI, MACE and death after CEA. Prior CAD is a risk factor for future AMI, whereas CKD is a significant predictor of MACE and death. Aggressive best medical treatment and risk factors modification should be advised in all patients with systemic atherosclerosis.