Insights from distribution dynamics inform strategies to conserve a dhole Cuon alpinus metapopulation in India

Topcats and underdogs: intraguild interactions among three apex carnivores across Asia's forestscapes

Intraguild interactions among carnivores have long held the fascination of ecologists. Ranging from competition to facilitation and coexistence, these interactions and their complex interplay influence everything from species persistence to ecosystem functioning. Yet, the patterns and pathways of such interactions are far from understood in tropical forest systems, particularly across countries in the Global South. Here, we examined the determinants and consequences of competitive interactions between dholes Cuon alpinus and the two large felids (leopards Panthera pardus and tigers Panthera tigris) with which they most commonly co-occur across Asia. Using a combination of traditional and novel data sources (N = 118), we integrate information from spatial, temporal, and dietary niche dimensions. These three species have faced catastrophic declines in their extent of co-occurrence over the past century; most of their source populations are now confined to Protected Areas. Analysis of dyadic interactions between species pairs showed a clear social hierarchy. Tigers were dominant over dholes, although pack strength in dholes helped ameliorate some of these effects; leopards were subordinate to dholes. Population-level spatio-temporal interactions assessed at 25 locations across Asia did not show a clear pattern of overlap or avoidance between species pairs. Diet-profile assessments indicated that wild ungulate biomass consumption by tigers was highest, while leopards consumed more primate and livestock prey as compared to their co-predators. In terms of prey offtake (ratio of wild prey biomass consumed to biomass available), the three species together harvested 0.4-30.2% of available prey, with the highest offtake recorded from the location where the carnivores reach very high densities. When re-examined in the context of prey availability and offtake, locations with low wild prey availability showed spatial avoidance and temporal overlap among the carnivore pairs, and locations with high wild prey availability showed spatial overlap and temporal segregation. Based on these observations, we make predictions for 40 Protected Areas in India where temporally synchronous estimates of predator and prey densities are available. We expect that low prey availability will lead to higher competition, and in extreme cases, to the complete exclusion of one or more species. In Protected Areas with high prey availability, we expect intraguild coexistence and conspecific competition among carnivores, with spill-over to forest-edge habitats and subsequent prey-switching to livestock. We stress that dhole-leopard-tiger co-occurrence across their range is facilitated through an intricate yet fragile balance between prey availability, and intraguild and conspecific competition. Data gaps and limitations notwithstanding, our study shows how insights from fundamental ecology can be of immense utility for applied aspects like large predator conservation and management of human-carnivore interactions. Our findings also highlight potential avenues for future research on tropical carnivores that can broaden current understanding of intraguild competition in forest systems of Asia and beyond.

Genetic analyses reveal demographic decline and population differentiation in an endangered social carnivore, Asiatic wild dog

Deforestation and agricultural intensification have resulted in an alarming change in the global land cover over the past 300 years, posing a threat to species conservation. Dhole is a monophyletic, social canid and, being an endangered and highly forest-dependent species, is more prone to the loss of favorable habitat in the Anthropocene. We determined the genetic differentiation and demographic history of dhole across the tiger reserves of Maharashtra using the microsatellite data of 305 individuals. Simulation-based analyses revealed a 77-85% decline in the major dhole sub-populations. Protected areas have provided refuge to the historically declining dhole population resulting in clustering with strong genetic structure in the remnant dhole population. The historical population decline coincides with the extreme events in the landscape over the past 300 years. The study highlights the pattern of genetic differentiation and diversity of a highly forest-dependent species which can be associated with the loss of forest cover outside tiger reserves. It also warrants attention to develop conservation plans for the remnant surviving population of dholes in India.

Dhole pack size variation: Assessing the effect of Prey availability and Apex predator

In multipredator systems, group sizes of social carnivores are shaped by the asymmetric intraguild interactions. Subordinate social carnivores experience low recruitment rates as an outcome of predation pressure. In South and Southeast Asia, the Tiger (Panthera tigris), Dhole (Cuon alpinus), and Leopard (Panthera pardus) form a widely distributed sympatric guild of large carnivores, wherein tigers are the apex predators followed by dhole and leopard. In this study, we attempted to understand the variation in pack size of a social carnivore, the dhole, at two neighboring sites in the Central Indian landscape. We further evaluated local-scale patterns of variation in pack size at a larger scale by doing a distribution-wide assessment across the dhole ranging countries. At the local scale, we found an inverse relationship between the density of tiger and pack size of dhole while accounting for variability in resources and habitat heterogeneity. Larger dhole packs (16.8 ± 3.1) were observed at the site where the tiger density was low (0.46/100 km2), whereas a smaller pack size (6.4 ± 1.3) was observed in the site with high tiger density (5.36/100 km2). Our results for the distribution-wide assessment were concordant with local-scale results, showing a negative association of pack size with the tiger densities (effect size -0.77) and a positive association with the prey abundance (effect size 0.64). The study advances our understanding to answer the age-old question of "what drives the pack size of social predators in a multipredator system?" This study also highlights the importance of understanding demographic responses of subordinate predator for varying competitor densities, often helpful in making informed decisions for conservation and management strategies such as population recovery and translocation of species.

Conserving an Endangered Canid: Assessing Distribution, Habitat Protection, and Connectivity for the Dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Bhutan

Most canids face population declines and range contractions worldwide. Although the dhole (Cuon alpinus) is widely distributed across 10 countries in South and Southeast Asia, limited studies exist on this species. Despite its globally “Endangered” status and ecological role as an apex predator, assessments on its distribution are limited to a few landscapes and countries. This explains the lack of a dhole-specific species conservation plan in most range countries, including Bhutan where no current population estimate exists. The species has also recovered from a country-wide poisoning campaign in the 1970s and 80s. In this study, we determine the dhole's distribution pattern and assess the protection and connectivity of dhole habitat in Bhutan. We anticipated dholes to be extant within their habitat well-represented in protected areas (PAs) and biological corridors (BCs). We used 721 georeferenced dhole occurrence records and eight environmental variables in MaxEnt software to model potential dhole distribution and habitat suitability. The model output was overlaid on the spatial layers of PAs and BCs to assess habitat protection and connectivity. As anticipated, we found the dhole widely distributed in all districts, PAs, and BCs in Bhutan. Dholes were recorded at the highest elevation range limit of 4,980 m above sea level, which overlapped with the “Vulnerable” snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Our model identified 72% (27,634 km2) of the country as suitable areas for dholes, of which, 31% (11,899 km2) was highly suitable and 41% (15,735 km2) was moderately suitable. Contrary to our expectation, PAs and BCs encompassed only 29% (8,046 km2) and 12% (3,185 km2) of suitable areas for dholes, respectively. A vast majority of the areas we deemed suitable for dholes currently remain unprotected, thus making dholes more vulnerable to human persecution and local extermination. We recommend adjusting PA boundaries to fully encompass suitable dhole habitat, and also advocate improved livestock husbandry to reduce dhole related livestock predation and minimize conflict, thereby ensuring its long-term survival in Bhutan.

DholeCuon alpinusin Satchari National Park: on the first verifiable evidence from northeast Bangladesh

The distribution range of the globally Endangered dholeCuon alpinusoverlaps mixed evergreen mid-hill forests of northeastern Bangladesh but lacks any authentic documentation. With the first evidence from this region, we observed the activity pattern of dhole, of its prey and of human activities in Satchari National Park, a part of a larger northeastern forested area, Raghunandan Hill Reserve Forest – the northernmost fringe of the Baramura Hills of India. We obtained 32 photos of solitary individuals on eight different events from six out of 587 camera trap days. Naïve occupancy estimate for dhole was 0.41 with a detection probability of 0.65. We identified two individuals, and reported five predation events. We encountered a moderately high temporal overlap of dhole activity with that of barking deer (∆̂1= 0.65, CI = 0.42–0.83), human activity (0.63, 0.38–0.89), and livestock movement (0.59, 0.38–0.89). Given that dhole is a diurnal hyper-carnivore, illegal logging and tourism pressure appeared as major disturbances to the species' existence in the park. Habitats of northeastern protected forests, their adjacency with hill ranges of Tripura, and dhole being a habitat generalist, we conjecture its presence in the entire region and recommend thorough camera-trapping efforts.

Estimating occupancy of Chinese pangolin (Manis pentadactyla) in a protected and non-protected area of Nepal

Chinese pangolin is the world's most heavily trafficked small mammal for luxury food and traditional medicine. Although their populations are declining worldwide, it is difficult to monitor their population status because of its rarity and nocturnal behavior. We used site occupancy (presence/absence) sampling of pangolin sign (i.e., active burrows) in a protected (Gaurishankar Conservation Area) and non-protected area (Ramechhap District) of central Nepal with multiple environmental covariates to understand factors that may influence occupancy of Chinese pangolin. The average Chinese pangolin occupancy and detection probabilities were Ψ ^  ± SE = 0.77 ± 0.08; p ^  ± SE = 0.27 ± 0.05, respectively. The detection probabilities of Chinese pangolin were higher in PA ( p ^  ± SE = 0.33 ± 0.03) than compared to non-PA ( p ^  ± SE = 0.25 ± 0.04). The most important covariates for Chinese pangolin detectability were red soil (97%), food source (97.6%), distance to road (97.9%), and protected area (97%) and with respect to occupancy was elevation (97.9%). We recommended use of remote cameras and potentially GPS collar surveys to further investigate habitat use and site occupancy at regular intervals to provide more reliable conservation assessments.