Independent effect of physical activity and resting heart rate on the incidence of atrial fibrillation in the general population

Resting heart rate and risk of atrial fibrillation in Chinese general population: Kailuan prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Previous research has shown an association of higher heart rate with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the relationship between resting heart rate (RHR) and AF is unknown. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between RHR and AF in the general population of China.

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort study.

SETTING

Community based.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 46 126 individuals from the Kailuan study who participated in the first three surveys (2006/2007, 2008/2009 and 2010/2011) and were followed up at 2-year intervals were enrolled.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The association between RHR and risk of incident AF was evaluated using Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic spline models.

RESULTS

Two hundred and forty-one individuals (0.52%) developed AF during 7.5 years of follow-up. After adjustment for age, sex, low-density and high-density lipoprotein, physical activity, alcohol consumption, smoking status, body mass index, mean systolic blood pressure, and history of diabetes and hypertension, the HRs were 2.32 (95% CI 1.45 to 3.72) for an RHR <60 beats/min and 2.80 (1.13 to 6.94) for an RHR ≥100 beats/min in comparison with an RHR of 70-80 beats/min. Restricted cubic spline models revealed a U-shaped relationship between RHR and incident AF.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that RHR and incident AF have a U-shaped relationship in the Chinese general population. Both lower and higher RHRs were associated with an increased risk of AF.

Weekly physical activity and incident atrial fibrillation in females - A dose-response meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

For years, physical activity (PA) has been considered a mixed blessing in terms of the risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Previous analyses have had equivocal results regarding the cut-off of PA level beyond which AF risk increases, if such a limit really does exist. Data regarding females in particular have been scarce.

METHODS

We performed a dose-response meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between weekly PA and the risk for AF in females. Major electronic databases were searched for studies assessing the association between leisure time PA and the risk for incident AF in females from the general population. The linearity of the dose-response curve was assessed using the restricted cubic spline model.

RESULTS

A total of 15 studies, which involved 1,821,422 females, were included in the final analysis. AF incidence was 3.7%. Dose-response analysis revealed an inverse nonlinear relationship between weekly PA and the risk for incident AF (p for linearity <0.0001). No significant heterogeneity was documented (I² = 37%). Cautious interpretation is needed for PA exceeding 50 metabolic equivalents of task- hours per week (METs- h/w), due to limited available data for these high levels of PA.

CONCLUSION

According to this analysis, physicians can safely advise females to perform up to 50METs- h/w of moderate or vigorous PA, to reduce the risk for future AF. Interestingly, significant benefit can be attained even at low levels of regular weekly PA.

Association between Age of Onset of Hypertension and Incident Atrial Fibrillation

We investigated whether age at hypertension (HTN) onset was associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. This prospective longitudinal community-based cohort study included 9892 participants without AF at baseline, who underwent biennial electrocardiography for a median duration of 11.5 years. The participants were divided into five groups, consisting of a normotensive group (Group-N) and four HTN groups based on HTN onset age: <45 years (Group-H1); 45−54 years (Group-H2); 55−64 years (Group-H3); and ≥65 years (Group-H4). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed that the presence of HTN at baseline was associated with higher AF risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.93; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.32−2.80). The participants in Group-H1 had the highest risk of AF (HR 3.18; CI 1.74−5.82), and the risk of AF decreased as HTN onset age increased across the four HTN groups (p for trend = 0.014). The AF onset age was significantly younger in participants in Group-H1 than in Groups-H2−H4. Early-onset HTN was associated with an increased risk of AF, and younger onset of AF in the general population. Surveillance for AF should be considered at a younger age in individuals with HTN.

Prognostic Impact and Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure

Background: The prognostic impact and predictors of NOAF in HF patients are not fully elucidated. This study aims to determine whether new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) affects patient outcome and investigate predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) in acute heart failure (HF) patients using real-world data. Methods: The factors associated with NOAF in 2894 patients with sinus rhythm (SR) enrolled in the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry were investigated. Survival was analyzed using AF as a time-dependent covariate. Relevant predictors of NOAF were analyzed using multivariate proportional hazards models. Results: Over 27.4 months, 187 patients developed AF. The median overall survival time was over 48 and 9.9 months for the SR and NOAF groups, respectively. Cox regression analysis with NOAF as a time-dependent covariate showed a higher risk of death among patients with NOAF. Multivariate Cox modeling showed that age, worsening HF, valvular heart disease (VHD), loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger left atrium (LA) diameter, and elevated creatinine levels were independently associated with NOAF. Risk score indicated the number of independent predictors. The incidence of NOAF was 2.9%, 9.4%, and 21.8% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Conditional inference tree analysis identified worsening HF, heart rate, age, LA diameter, and VHD as discriminators. Conclusions: NOAF was associated with decreased survival in acute HF patients with SR. Age, worsening HF, VHD, loop diuretics, lower heart rate, larger LA diameter, and elevated creatinine could independently predict NOAF. This may be useful to risk-stratify HF patients at risk for AF.

Sex-Specific Exposure-Effect Relationship Between Physical Activity and Incident Atrial Fibrillation in the General Population: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of 16 Prospective Studies

Background: Since evidence regarding the relationship between physical activity (PA) and atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence is inconsistent among studies, we performed a dose-response meta-analysis to comprehensively evaluate the exposure-effect association between PA and incident AF and the potential sex difference in the general population. Methods: The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible studies published up to July 2020 (PROSPERO: CRD42018091692). The non-linear or linear exposure-effect relationship between PA and AF was examined using the robust error meta-regression method. Results: A total of 16 prospective studies involving 1,449,017 individuals and 39,884 AF cases were included. We observed an inverse non-linear association between PA level and incident AF (I ² = 0%, p _{non-linearity} < 0.001). In the linear model, a 5 metabolic equivalent of task (MET)-h/week increase in PA was associated with a decreased risk of AF [risk ratio (RR) = 0.992, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.988-0.996, I ² = 0%]. In the sex-stratified analysis, we observed an inverse non-linear relationship between PA level and AF risk in females (I ² = 90%, p _{non-linearity} < 0.0001) but not in males (I ² = 0%, p _{non-linearity} = 0.40). In the linear model, a 5 MET-h/week increase in PA was associated with a reduced risk of AF in females (RR = 0.982, 95% CI: 0.975-0.989, I ² = 71%) but not in males (RR = 0.998, 95% CI: 0.994-1.002, I ² = 0%), with a significant interaction observed between the two groups (p _interaction < 0.0001). Conclusion: There was an inverse non-linear relationship between PA level and incident AF in the general population. The beneficial effect of PA in reducing AF risk might be predominantly observed in females.

Physical activity and risk of atrial fibrillation in the general population: meta-analysis of 23 cohort studies involving about 2 million participants

Regular physical activity is well established to be associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease outcomes. Whether physical activity is associated with the future risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) remains a controversy. Using a systematic review and meta-analysis of published observational cohort studies in general populations with at least one-year of follow-up, we aimed to evaluate the association between regular physical activity and the risk of AF. Relevant studies were sought from inception until October 2020 in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, and manual search of relevant articles. Extracted relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the maximum versus the minimal amount of physical activity groups were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Quality of the evidence was assessed by GRADE. A total of 23 unique observational cohort studies comprising of 1,930,725 participants and 45,839 AF cases were eligible. The pooled multivariable-adjusted RR (95% CI) for AF comparing the most physically active versus the least physically active groups was 0.99 (0.93–1.05). This association was modified by sex: an increased risk was observed in men: 1.20 (1.02–1.42), with a decreased risk in women: 0.91 (0.84–0.99). The quality of the evidence ranged from low to moderate. Pooled observational cohort studies suggest that the absence of associations reported between regular physical activity and AF risk in previous general population studies and their aggregate analyses could be driven by a sex-specific difference in the associations – an increased risk in men and a decreased risk in women.

Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 2020: CRD42020172814