Clinical Model for Predicting Warfarin Sensitivity

Construction of warfarin population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics model in Han population based on Bayesian method

The purpose of this paper is to study the genetic polymorphisms of related gene loci (CYP2C9*3, VKORC1-1639G > A) based on demographic and clinical factors, and use the maximum a posterior Bayesian method to construct a warfarin individualized dose prediction model in line with the Chinese Han population. Finally, the built model is compared and analyzed with the widely used models at home and abroad. In this study, a total of 5467 INR measurements are collected from 646 eligible subjects in our hospital, and the maximum a posterior Bayesian method is used to construct a warfarin dose prediction that conforms to the Chinese Han population on the basis of the Hamberg model. The model is verified and compared with foreign models. This study finds that body weight and concomitant use of amiodarone have a significant effect on the anticoagulant effect of warfarin. The model can provide an effective basis for individualized and rational dosing of warfarin in Han population more accurately. In the performance of comparison with different warfarin dose prediction models, the new model has the highest prediction accuracy, and the prediction percentage is as high as 72.56%. The dose predicted by the Huang model is the closest to the actual dose of warfarin. The population pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics model established in this study can better reflect the distribution characteristics of INR values after warfarin administration in the Han population, and performs better than the models reported in the literature.

An Adaptive Model Predictive Controller to Address the Biovariability in Blood Clotting Response During Therapy With Warfarin

OBJECTIVE

Effective dosing of anticoagulants aims to prevent blood clot formation while avoiding hemorrhages. This complex task is challenged by several disturbing factors and drug-effect uncertainties, requesting frequent monitoring and adjustment. Biovariability in drug absorption and action further complicates titration and calls for individualized strategies. In this paper, we propose an adaptive closed-loop control algorithm to assist in warfarin therapy management.

METHODS

The controller was designed and tested in silico using an established pharmacometrics model of warfarin, which accounts for inter-subject variability. The control algorithm is an adaptive Model Predictive Control (a-MPC) that leverages a simplified patient model, whose parameters are updated with a Bayesian strategy. Performance was quantitatively evaluated in simulations performed on a population of virtual subjects against an algorithm reproducing medical guidelines (MG) and an MPC controller available in the literature (l-MPC).

RESULTS

The proposed a-MPC significantly (p 0.05) lowers rising time (2.8 vs. 4.4 and 11.2 days) and time out of range (3.3 vs. 7.2 and 12.9 days) with respect to both MG and l-MPC, respectively. Adaptivity grants a significantly (p 0.05) lower number of subjects reaching unsafe INR values compared to when this feature is not present (8.9% vs.15% of subjects presenting an overshoot outside the target range and 0.08% vs. 0.28% of subjects reaching dangerous INR values).

CONCLUSION

The a-MPC algorithm improve warfarin therapy compared to the benchmark therapies.

SIGNIFICANCE

This in-silico validation proves effectiveness of the a-MPC algorithm for anticoagulant administration, paving the way for clinical testing.

A Review of the Evolving Landscape of Inclusive Research and Improved Clinical Trial Access

Current clinical research does not reflect the diversity of patient populations, despite continued recommendations to increase enrollment of under-represented racial and ethnic groups. The ramifications of this lack of trial diversity are important because of potential differences between races and ethnicities in response to therapies, which have been observed for drugs across indications. Nonrepresentative research populations limit the generalizability of study results, which may lead to questions about safety and efficacy in certain subgroups of patients and hinder regulators, healthcare providers, and patients in their ability to adequately consider the benefits and risks of a therapeutic treatment across all populations. Renewed efforts to address healthcare disparities and increase diversity in clinical trials have demonstrated that inclusive trials are achievable and can provide scientifically rigorous results, and, thus, should stimulate greater action across all stakeholders. Ensuring that studies throughout the clinical development process include representative populations is a scientific imperative to advance health equity, racial justice, and trust in the safety and efficacy of medical therapies. This article reviews the long-standing lack of diversity and barriers to enrollment of diverse and representative populations in clinical trials, outlines the current evolving trial landscape and the efforts of stakeholders, and provides examples from scientifically rigorous inclusive trials. The goal is to share learnings in a wider context of opportunities to enhance diversity, equity, and inclusion in clinical development while ensuring the safety and efficacy of medical therapies in all populations of patients, and in doing so, provide wider patient access to therapeutic treatments.

Warfarin hypersensitivity in the internist's practice: a case report

Anticoagulants are widely used in clinical practice to reduce the risk of cardiovascular events. However, there are associated clinical conditions that require coagulation system monitoring due to an increased risk of bleeding. In clinical practice, cases of warfarin hypersensitivity due to gene polymorphisms are known. Taking warfarin in such a situation is often manifested by massive bleeding that threatens the patient's life. Sixty seven-years-old female patient was admitted to the internal medicine department of Rostov State Medical University clinic in March 2022. The day before, she noted severe abdominal pain, loose bloody stool. An outpatient examination revealed an increase in international normalized ratio to 9,42, thrombin time >30 sec. There were no signs of primary gastrointestinal pathology. According to anamnesis, on January 21, 2022, the patient underwent mechanical aortic valve replacement, in connection with which warfarin was prescribed at a dose of 2,5 mg/day. After establishing hypocoagulation, warfarin was discontinued. A pharmacogenetic analysis was performed, which established the carriage of polymorphisms of cytochrome P450 system genes, the homozygous mutation 1075A>C (CYP2C9 (*3/*3)), and the heterozygous mutation of the vitamin K reductase gene VKORC1 G(-1639)A (VKORC1 GA). The individual dosage of warfarin was calculated according to International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium guidelines, which was 9 mg/week. After adjusting the dose of warfarin, the level of international normalized ratio decreased to 3,61, thrombin time to 13 sec. The patient was discharged with recommendations to follow an individual warfarin regimen and monitor coagulation parameters. The presence of hypersensitivity to warfarin is not a reason for its complete withdrawal in situations requiring longterm anticoagulation. In this regard, it is necessary for the doctor to be vigilant when prescribing warfarin to a patient, understanding the causes and methods for diagnosing hypersensitivity to warfarin, and timely correction of its dosage.

Safety and efficacy of using portable coagulation monitor for INR examination after left-sided mechanical prosthetic valve replacement

BACKGROUND

Time in therapeutic range (TTR) is an index to assess the effectiveness of anticoagulation and is important to predict the risk of bleeding and thrombosis in patients taking warfarin. In recent years, the portable coagulation monitor, a point-of-care testing device for patients to perform self-management international normalized ratio (INR) examination, has provided an opportunity to improve the quality of oral warfarin treatment. In this study, we applied TTR to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the portable coagulation monitor for patients with oral anticoagulant warfarin after left-sided mechanical prosthetic valve (MPV) replacement.

METHODS

It is a single-centre cohort study. From September 2019 to June 2021, a total of 243 patients who returned to our institution for outpatient clinic revisit at 3 months after left-sided MPV replacement, met the inclusion criteria and agreed to be followed up were included. Self-management group used portable coagulation monitor for INR examination, and patients in the conventional group had their INR monitored in routine outpatient visits. Clinical data of the patients would be recorded for the next 12 months, and results were compared between the two groups to assess the effect of the coagulation monitor on TTR and complications related to bleeding and thrombosis in patients with left-sided MPV replacement.

RESULTS

A total of 212 individuals provided complete and validated INR data spanning of 1 year. Those who applied the portable coagulation monitor had higher TTR values and larger number of tests for INR. No significant differences were seen between the two groups in postoperative bleeding and thromboembolic complications, but portable coagulation monitor showed a trend toward fewer bleeding events.

CONCLUSION

Portable devices for coagulation monitoring are safe and can achieve a higher TTR. Patients who use the portable coagulation monitor for home INR self-management can achieve a safe and effective warfarin therapy.

Establishment of prediction algorithm for the Honghe minority group based on warfarin maintenance dose

Background: CYP2C9 and VKORC1 are important factors in warfarin metabolism. The authors explored the effects of these genetic polymorphisms and clinical factors on a warfarin maintenance dose and then established the prediction algorithm for Honghe minorities in China. Materials & methods: Quantitative fluorescence PCR determined the mutation frequency of CYP2C9 and VKORC1-1639 G>A alleles. The authors collected the relevant clinical factors, including age, gender, body surface area (BSA), international normalized ratio value, daily warfarin dose, comorbidity and concomitant prescriptions. Results: The mean values of BSA and international normalized ratio in Honghe minorities were lower than in Han Chinese (p = 0.00). The genotype of CYP2C9*1/*1 and VKORC1-1639 AA was the main allele, the mutationfrequency of VKORC1-1639 AA and the number of male of Honghe minorities were lower than that of Han Chinese (p = 0.013 and p = 0.04). The significances of the effect on actual warfarin dose value were gender, VKORC1 AA mutant, CYP2C9*1/*1, age, hypertension and BSA sequentially. Conclusion: By multiple linear regression analysis with genetic and clinical factors, the authors determined a prediction algorithm for adjusting individual dosing of warfarin in this population. Clinical trial registration number: ChiCTR2100051778.

Five Priorities of African Genomics Research: The Next Frontier

To embrace the prospects of accurately diagnosing thousands of monogenic conditions, predicting disease risks for complex traits or diseases, tailoring treatment to individuals' pharmacogenetic profiles, and potentially curing some diseases, research into African genomic variation is a scientific imperative. African genomes harbor millions of uncaptured variants accumulated over 300,000 years of modern humans' evolutionary history, with successive waves of admixture, migration, and natural selection combining with extensive ecological diversity to create a broad and exceptional genomic complexity. Harnessing African genomic complexity, therefore, will require sustained commitment and equitable collaboration from the scientific community and funding agencies. African governments must support academic public research and industrial partnerships that build the necessary genetic medicine workforce, utilize the emerging genomic big data to develop expertise in computer science and bioinformatics, and evolve national and global governance frameworks that recognize the ethical implications of data-driven genomic research and empower its application in African social, cultural, economic, and religious contexts. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics, Volume 23 is October 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Warfarin sensitivity is associated with increased hospital mortality in critically Ill patients

Background

Warfarin is a widely used anticoagulant with a narrow therapeutic index and large interpatient variability in the therapeutic dose. Warfarin sensitivity has been reported to be associated with increased incidence of international normalized ratio (INR) > 5. However, whether warfarin sensitivity is a risk factor for adverse outcomes in critically ill patients remains unknown. In the present study, we aimed to evaluate the utility of different machine learning algorithms for the prediction of warfarin sensitivity and to determine the impact of warfarin sensitivity on outcomes in critically ill patients.

Methods

Nine different machine learning algorithms for the prediction of warfarin sensitivity were tested in the International Warfarin Pharmacogenetic Consortium cohort and Easton cohort. Furthermore, a total of 7,647 critically ill patients was analyzed for warfarin sensitivity on in-hospital mortality by multivariable regression. Covariates that potentially confound the association were further adjusted using propensity score matching or inverse probability of treatment weighting.

Results

We found that logistic regression (AUC = 0.879, 95% CI: 0.834–0.924) was indistinguishable from support vector machine with a linear kernel, neural network, AdaBoost and light gradient boosting trees, and significantly outperformed all the other machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, we found that warfarin sensitivity predicted by the logistic regression model was significantly associated with worse in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.33 (95% CI, 1.01–1.77).

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the logistic regression model is the best model for the prediction of warfarin sensitivity clinically and that warfarin sensitivity is likely to be a risk factor for adverse outcomes in critically ill patients.

Efficacy and safety of genotype-guided warfarin dosing versus non-genotype-guided warfarin dosing strategies: A systematic review and meta-analysis of 27 randomized controlled trials

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of genotype-guided dosing (GD) strategies compared to non-genotype-guided dosing (non-GD) strategies for warfarin.

METHODS

Databases were searched up to July 2021. Meta-analysis was conducted with the Review Manager software (version 5.4) and R (version 4.0.5). Risk ratio (RR), mean difference (MD), and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used. Subgroup analyses were conducted based on ethnicity and dosing regimen in non-GD group. Meta-regression was performed to evaluate the relation of covariates. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021245654).

RESULTS

27 randomized controlled trials with a total of 9906 patients were included. The GD group resulted in a significantly improved time in therapeutic range compared with non-GD group in follow-up duration within 30 days (MD: 5.95, 95%CI: 2.41-9.22, P = 0.001) and beyond 30 days (MD: 4.93, 1.40-8.47, P = 0.006), time to the first therapeutic international normalized ratio (MD: -1.80, -2.69 - -0.92, P < 0.0001), and time to reach stable dose (MD: -5.08, -7.09 - -3.07, P < 0.00001), incidence of major bleeding events (RR: 0.50, 0.33-0.75, P = 0.0008), total bleeding events (RR: 0.83, 0.73-0.95, P = 0.006), and thromboembolism (RR: 0.69, 0.49-0.96, P = 0.03). No differences were found in stable dose achievement, minor bleeding events, over anticoagulation, and all-cause mortality. Four improved efficacy outcomes were observed in GD group compared with fixed dosing group. Only time to the therapeutic INR was shortened in GD group compared with clinical adjusted dosing group. The result showed no difference of safety outcomes between GD group and fixed dosing group whereas a decreased incidence of major bleeding events was observed when comparing to clinical adjusted dosing group.

CONCLUSION

GD strategy was superior to fixed dosing strategy in term of efficacy outcomes and comparable to fixed dosing strategy in safety outcomes. Clinical adjusted regimen could partly substitute the genotype-guided dosing strategy for efficacy in insufficient conditions, but the risk of major bleeding events should be monitored.

Personalized medicine in cardiovascular disease: review of literature

Purpose

Personalized medicine (PM) is the concept of managing patients based on their characteristics, including genotypes. In the field of cardiology, advantages of PM could be found in the diagnosis and treatment of several conditions such as arrhythmias and cardiomyopathies; moreover, it may be beneficial to prevent adverse drug reactions (ADR) and select the best medication. Genetic background can help us in selecting effective treatments, appropriate dose requirements, and preventive strategies in individuals with particular genotypes.

Method

In this review, we provide examples of personalized medicine based on human genetics for the most used pharmaceutics in cardiology, including warfarin, clopidogrel, and statins. We also review cardiovascular diseases, including coronary artery disease, arrhythmia, and cardiomyopathies.

Conclusion

Genetic factors are as important as environmental factors and they should be tested and evaluated more in the future by improving in genetic testing tools.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40200-021-00840-0.

Differences in Predicted Warfarin Dosing Requirements Between Hmong and East Asians Using Genotype-Based Dosing Algorithms

INTRODUCTION

Warfarin's narrow therapeutic index and high variability in dosage requirements make dosage selection critical. Genetic factors are known to impact warfarin dosage selection. The Hmong are a unique Asian subpopulation numbering over 278,000 in the United States whose participation in genetics-based research is virtually nonexistent. The translational significance of early reports of warfarin pharmacogene differences in Hmong has not been evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

(i) To validate previously identified allele frequency differences relevant to warfarin dosing in Hmong versus East Asians and (ii) to compare predicted warfarin sensitivity and maintenance doses between a Hmong population and an East Asian cohort.

METHOD

DNA collected from two independent cohorts (n=236 and n=198) of Hmong adults were genotyped for CYP2C9 (*2, *3), VKORC1 (G-1639A), and CYP4F2 (*3). Allele frequencies between the combined Hmong cohort (n=433) and East Asians (n=1165) from the 2009 International Warfarin Pharmacogenetics Consortium (IWPC) study were compared using a χ² test. Percentages of Hmong and East Asian participants predicted to be very sensitive to warfarin were compared using a χ² test, and the predicted mean warfarin maintenance dose was compared with a t test.

RESULTS

The allele frequencies of CYP2C9*3 in the combined Hmong cohort and CYP4F2*3 in the VIP-Hmong cohort are significantly different from those in East Asians (18.9% vs 3.0%, p<0.001 and 9.8% vs 22.1%, p<0.001, respectively). Comparing the combined Hmong cohort to the East Asian cohort, the percentage of participants predicted to be very sensitive to warfarin was significantly higher (28% vs 5%, p<0.01) and the mean predicted warfarin maintenance dose was significantly lower (19.8 vs 21.3 mg/week, p<0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The unique allele frequencies related to warfarin when combined with nongenetic factors observed in the Hmong translate into clinically relevant differences in predicted maintenance dose requirements for Hmong versus East Asians.

An identification and functional evaluation of a novel CYP2C9 variant CYP2C9*62

Warfarin is the most commonly used anticoagulant in the clinical treatment of thromboembolic diseases. The dose of warfarin varies significantly within populations, and the dose is closely related to the genetic polymorphisms of the CYP2C9 and VKORC1 genes. In this study, a new CYP2C9 nonsynonymous mutation (8576C > T) was detected after the genetic screening of 162 patients took warfarin. This mutation, named as the new allele CYP2C9*62, can result in an arginine to cysteine amino acid substitution at position 125 of the CYP2C9 protein (R125C). When expressed in insect cells, the protein expression of CYP2C9.62 was significantly lower than that of the wild-type, and its metabolic activity was also significantly decreased after the addition of three typical CYP2C9 probe drugs, suggesting that the new mutant can dramatically affect the metabolism of CYP2C9 drugs in vitro.

Percutaneous left atrial appendage closure for cerebrovascular accident prevention: rationale, indications, technical aspects, clinical results and future perspective

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. The most feared complication of AF is thromboembolism. Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is the standard treatment to reduce thromboembolism occurrence in patients with AF. The rate of relevant bleeding, medical interactions and incompliance under OAC remains consistent. In this context, patients with AF at high risk for thromboembolism and with a contraindication to OAC may be considered as candidates for percutaneous left atrial appendage closure. In this review, we discuss the rationale, indications, technical aspects and clinical results of left atrial appendage closure by means of the WATCHMAN^® (Boston Scientific, MA, USA) device.