Prognostic model and optimal treatment for patients with stage IVc nasopharyngeal carcinoma at diagnosis

Anatomic prognostic factors and their potential roles in refining M1 classification for de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

To identify anatomic prognostic factors and their potential roles in refining M1 classification for de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (M1-NPC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

All M1-NPC treated with chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy between 2010 and 2019 from two centers (training and validation cohort) were included. The prognostic value of metastatic disease extent and involved organs for overall survival (OS) were assessed by several multivariable analyses (MVA) models. A new M1 classification was proposed and validated in a separate cohort who received immuno-chemotherapy.

RESULTS

A total of 197 M1-NPC in the training and 307 in the validation cohorts were included for M1 subdivision study with median follow-up of 46 and 57 months. MVA model with "≤2 organs/≤5 lesions" as the definition of oligometastasis had the highest C-index (0.623) versus others (0.606-0.621). Patients with oligometastasis had better OS versus polymetastasis (hazard ratio [HR] 0.47/0.63) while liver metastases carried worse OS (HR 1.57/1.45) in MVA in the training/validation cohorts, respectively. We proposed to divide M1-NPC into M1a (oligometastasis without liver metastases) and M1b (liver metastases or polymetastasis) with 3-year OS of 66.5%/31.7% and 64.9%/35.0% in the training/validation cohorts, respectively. M1a subset had a better median progress-free survival (not reach vs. 17 months, p < 0.001) in the immuno-chemotherapy cohort (n = 163).

CONCLUSION

Oligometastasis (≤2 organs/≤5 lesions) and liver metastasis are prognostic for M1-NPC. Subdivision of M1-NPC into M1a (oligometastasis without liver metastasis) and M1b (liver metastasis or polymetastasis) depicts the prognosis well in M1-NPC patients who received immuno-chemotherapy.

Machine learning explainability in nasopharyngeal cancer survival using LIME and SHAP

Nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) has a unique histopathology compared with other head and neck cancers. Individual NPC patients may attain different outcomes. This study aims to build a prognostic system by combining a highly accurate machine learning model (ML) model with explainable artificial intelligence to stratify NPC patients into low and high chance of survival groups. Explainability is provided using Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME) and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) techniques. A total of 1094 NPC patients were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for model training and internal validation. We combined five different ML algorithms to form a uniquely stacked algorithm. The predictive performance of the stacked algorithm was compared with a state-of-the-art algorithm-extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) to stratify the NPC patients into chance of survival groups. We validated our model with temporal validation (n = 547) and geographic external validation (Helsinki University Hospital NPC cohort, n = 60). The developed stacked predictive ML model showed an accuracy of 85.9% while the XGBoost had 84.5% after the training and testing phases. This demonstrated that both XGBoost and the stacked model showed comparable performance. External geographic validation of XGBoost model showed a c-index of 0.74, accuracy of 76.7%, and area under curve of 0.76. The SHAP technique revealed that age of the patient at diagnosis, T-stage, ethnicity, M-stage, marital status, and grade were among the prominent input variables in decreasing order of significance for the overall survival of NPC patients. LIME showed the degree of reliability of the prediction made by the model. In addition, both techniques showed how each feature contributed to the prediction made by the model. LIME and SHAP techniques provided personalized protective and risk factors for each NPC patient and unraveled some novel non-linear relationships between input features and survival chance. The examined ML approach showed the ability to predict the chance of overall survival of NPC patients. This is important for effective treatment planning care and informed clinical decisions. To enhance outcome results, including survival in NPC, ML may aid in planning individualized therapy for this patient population.

Construction of Prognostic Nomogram in Patients with N3-Stage Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

The aim of the study was to retrospectively identify the metastatic influence factors and predict the prognosis and develop an individualized prognostic prediction model for patients with N3-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC).

METHODS

The study collected 446 NPC patients with N3 stage from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. The patients were classified into subgroups based on the histological types and metastatic status. Multivariable logistic, Cox regression, and Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test were performed. The nomogram model was created using the prognostic factors identified from Cox regression analysis. The predictive accuracy was determined based on the concordance index (c-index) and calibration curves.

RESULTS

The 5-year overall survival (OS) of the NPC patients with N3 stage was 43.9%, and the prognosis of patients without any distant metastases was largely longer than that with metastases. No difference was observed between different pathological types in the entire cohort. However, patients with non-keratinized squamous cell carcinoma had a better OS than that of the patients with keratinized squamous cell carcinoma in a nonmetastatic subgroup. Using the Cox regression analysis results, the nomogram successfully classified these patients into low- and high-risk subgroups and presented the survival difference. The c-index of the nomogram for predicting the prognosis was satisfactory.

CONCLUSION

This study identified metastatic risk factors and developed a convenient clinical tool for the prognosis of NPC patients. This tool can be used for individualized risk classification and decision-making regarding treatment of NPC patients with N3 stage.

Prognostic models for early and late tumor progression prediction in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: An analysis of 8292 endemic cases

OBJECTIVES

The time for posttreatment tumor progression differs between nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients. Herein, we established effective nomograms for predicting early tumor progression (ETP) and late tumor progression (LTP) in NPC patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively enrolled 8292 NPC patients (training cohort: n = 6219; validation cohort: n = 2073). The ELP and LTP were defined as the time to tumor progression ≤24 and >24 months after treatment, respectively.

RESULTS

The ETP and LTP accounted for 52.6 and 47.4% of the total patient cohort, respectively. Patients who developed ETP had markedly worse overall survival (OS) versus patients who suffered from LTP (5-year OS: 26.2% vs. 59.7%, p < 0.001). Further, we identified 10/6 predictive factors significantly associated with ETP/LTP via logistic regression analyses. These indicators were used separately to construct two predictive nomograms for ETP and LTP. In the training group, the ETP nomogram [Harrell Concordance Index (C-index) value: 0.711 vs. 0.618; p < 0.001] and LTP nomogram (C-index value: 0.701 vs. 0.612; p < 0.001) were significantly superior for risk stratification than the TNM staging. These results were supported in the validation group with a C-index value of 0.753 and 0.738 for the ETP and LTP nomograms, respectively. High-risk patients defined by ETP/LTP nomograms had shorter progression-free survival than low-risk patients (all p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The established nomograms can help in ELP or LTP risk stratification for NPC patients. Our current results might also provide insights into individualized treatment decisions and designing surveillance strategies for NPC patients.

Prior cancer history predicts the worse survival of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma

PURPOSE

Previous cancers can be observed in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, whether prior cancer diagnosis affects survival outcomes remains unknown. This study aimed to explore the impact of prior cancer on the survival of patients with NPC.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data from 666 NPC patients between 2006 and 2018. The patients in this study were divided into those without prior cancer, with prior head and neck cancer, and prior non-head and neck cancer. The demographic data and survival of these groups were then analyzed. The independent prognostic factors for NPC were determined using multivariate Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 25 NPC patients with prior cancer in our case series, most of whom had a history of colorectal cancer. Patients with a history of cancer were older than those without a history of cancer (p = 0.001). In the subgroup analysis stratified by the timing of prior cancer, NPC patients with prior non-head and neck cancer within 24, 36, 60, and 120 months showed worse survival than patients without prior cancer (all p < 0.05). When stratified by cancer stage, stage III NPC patients with prior non-head and neck cancer showed worse survival than patients without prior cancer (p < 0.001). Prior cancer and diabetes can predict worse survival in patients with stage III NPC.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated that prior cancer and diabetes are independent prognostic factors in patients with stage III NPC.

Capecitabine Monotherapy as Palliative Treatment for Patients with Recurrent/Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Cancer

Background. Numerous chemotherapeutic agents have antitumor activity in recurrent/metastatic (R/M) nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC). Evidence of capecitabine’s effectiveness as monotherapy is limited. Capecitabine tolerability in solid malignancies has ethnic and geographical variability. We investigated capecitabine’s tolerability and identified potential prognostic factors for clinical outcomes in R/M NPC. Methods. A consecutive retrospective cohort of patients who received capecitabine as the first recurrence, second- or third-line monotherapy for metastatic NPC (2011–2019) was reviewed concerning patient characteristics, pathological features, treatment outcomes, and toxicity. Results. Fifty-one patients were eligible (median age at diagnosis: 42 [35.5–52.5] years). Most patients (78.4%) tolerated a standard oral dose of 1,250 mg/m2 capecitabine (2 weeks on/1 week off) in a 3-week cycle. The objective response rate was 49%, and the disease control rate was 66.7%, with a median response duration of 6.2 months. Hand-foot syndrome (HFS) was associated with a higher objective response rate (odds ratio, 5.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.18–21.98]; $P=0.02$ ). The median follow-up duration was 17.8 (interquartile range: 7.8–30.4) months. The median (95% confidence interval) progression-free survival and overall survival were 6.6 (4.3–8.8) and 32.7 (25.9–39.5) months, respectively. HFS ( $P=0.02$ ), better performance status ( $P=0.02$ ), and absence of brain metastasis ( $P=0.04$ ) were associated with prolonged progression-free survival. Conclusion. Capecitabine monotherapy is effective and well-tolerated as a palliative treatment for R/M NPC. Despite the lower incidence of HFS in our patients, it remained a favorable prognostic factor for objective response and progression-free survival.

Exosomal miR-106a-5p accelerates the progression of nasopharyngeal carcinoma through FBXW7-mediated TRIM24 degradation

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is prevalent in East Asia and causes increased health burden. Elucidating the regulatory mechanism of NPC progression is important for understanding the pathogenesis of NPC and developing novel therapeutic strategies. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma and normal tissues were collected. Nasopharyngeal carcinoma cell proliferation, migration, and invasion were evaluated using CCK‐8, colony formation, wound healing, and transwell assays, respectively. A xenograft mouse model of NPC was established to analyze NPC cell growth and metastasis in vivo. The expression of miR‐106a‐5p, FBXW7, TRIM24, and SRGN was determined with RT‐qPCR and Western blot. MiR‐106a‐5p, TRIM24, and SRGN were upregulated, and FBXW7 was downregulated in NPC tissues and cells. Exosomal miR‐106a‐5p could enter NPC cells, and its overexpression promoted the proliferation, migration, invasion, and metastasis of NPC cells, which were suppressed by knockdown of exosomal miR‐106a‐5p. MiR‐106a‐5p targeted FBXW7 to regulate FBXW7‐mediated degradation of TRIM24. Furthermore, TRIM24 regulated SRGN expression by binding to its promoter in NPC cells. Suppression of exosomal miR‐106a‐5p attenuated NPC growth and metastasis through the FBXW7‐TRIM24‐SRGN axis in vivo. Exosomal miR‐106a‐5p accelerated the progression of NPC through the FBXW7‐TRIM24‐SRGN axis. Our study elucidates novel regulatory mechanisms of NPC progression and provides potential exosome‐based therapeutic strategies for NPC.

Metastatic characteristics associated with survival of synchronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma in non-epidemic areas

INTRODUCTION

The current metastatic category (M) of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is a "catch-all" category, we previously successfully established a M1 subdivision system based on prognostic metastatic characteristics in epidemic areas. We aimed to figure out metastatic characteristics associated with survival outcomes of NPC in non-epidemic areas.

METHODS

A total of 428 newly diagnosed de novo metastatic NPC patients from 2010 to 2016 were analyzed from the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs) were used to identify independent prognostic factors for survival.

RESULTS

The most frequently involved metastatic locations were the bones (53.04%), the lungs (36.68%), the livers (29.21%) and the distant lymph nodes (24.07%). Univariate analysis indicated that bone involvement (HR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.09-1.77), liver involvement (HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.12-1.85) and multiple metastatic locations (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.04-1.67) were negative prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) for patients with synchronous metastasis. We established a new M1 subdivision system based on metastatic characteristics: M1a, without bone and liver involvement; M1b, single bone or liver involvement; M1c, multiple metastatic locations including bone and/or liver. Multivariate analysis confirmed that our new subcategories were associated with significantly different OS (M1b vs M1a: HR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.11-2.16; M1c vs M1a: HR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.47-2.78).

CONCLUSIONS

Synchronous metastatic NPC patients with multiple metastatic locations involved bone and/or liver were prone to suffer from dismal OS and might need more attentions for selection of treatment modality.

Development of a Nomogram Model for Treatment of Nonmetastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

IMPORTANCE

Because of tumor heterogeneity, overall survival (OS) differs significantly among individuals with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC), even among those with the same clinical stage. Relying solely on TNM staging to guide treatment remains imperfect.

OBJECTIVES

To establish a comprehensive nomogram to estimate individualized OS and to explore stratified treatment regimens for risk subgroups in nonmetastatic NPC.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included 8093 patients diagnosed with NPC at a single center in China from April 2009 to December 2015. The sample was split into a training cohort (5398 participants [66.7%]) and validation cohort (2695 [33.3%]). Data were analyzed in May 2020.

EXPOSURES

Age, T stage, N stage, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels, and albumin (ALB) levels.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary end point was OS. The nomogram for estimating OS was generated based on multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression. The performance of the nomogram was quantified using Harrell concordance index (C index), the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, and a calibration curve. OS rates were established using the Kaplan-Meier method, and intersubgroup differences were examined by the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Among the 8093 participants, 5688 (70.3%) were men, and the median age at diagnosis was 45 years (range, 7-85 years). Six variables (age, T stage, N stage, EBV DNA levels, LDH levels, and ALB levels) were identified through multivariate Cox regression and incorporated into a nomogram to estimate OS. The resulting nomogram showed excellent discriminative ability and significantly outperformed the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union for International Cancer Control TNM staging system for estimating OS (C index, 0.716 [95% CI, 0.698-0.734] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.624-0.661]; P < .001; AUC, 0.717 [95% CI, 0.698-0.737] vs 0.643 [95% CI, 0.623-0.662]; P < .001), and the calibration curves showed satisfactory agreement between the actual and nomogram-estimated OS rates. The validation cohort confirmed the results. Patients were stratified into 4 risk groups based on the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile score values estimated from the nomogram. The 4 nomogram-defined risk groups demonstrated significantly different intergroup OS (3-year OS rates: risk group 1, 1328 of 1345 [98.7%]; risk group 2, 1289 of 1341 [96.1%]; risk group 3, 1222 of 1321 [92.5%]; risk group 4, 1173 of 1391 [84.3%]; P < .001). These risk groups were associated with the efficacy of different treatment regimens. For example, for risk group 4, induction chemotherapy with concurrent chemoradiotherapy was associated with a significantly better OS than concurrent chemoradiotherapy (log-rank P = .008) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy alone (log-rank P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, the proposed nomogram model enabled individualized prognostication of OS and could help to guide risk-adapted treatment for patients with nonmetastatic NPC.

Synchronous Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: Characteristics and Survival of Patients Adding Definitive Nasopharyngeal-Neck Radiotherapy to Systematic Chemotherapy

Purpose

To determine the M1 sub-staging in synchronous metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (smNPC) and to examine the effect of nasopharyngeal-neck radiotherapy (RT) and local treatment of metastases on overall survival (OS) of smNPC patients.

Patients and Methods

A total of 150 patients with smNPC were included. Metastatic characteristics associated with their potential prognostic significance were analyzed. Then, a stratification system of the M1 sub-staging in smNPC was provided according to metastatic features. Moreover, the OS of patients with or without nasopharyngeal-neck RT was compared by Log rank test. The OS of patients who received or did not receive local treatment of metastases was also analyzed.

Results

We successfully divided the M1 stage into three sub-staging: M1a (a single site with a single lesion), M1b (a single site with multiple lesions), and M1c (multiple sites with multiple lesions). The median OS was 53.2, 25.8, and 18.9 months for M1a, M1b, and M1c, respectively (p < 0.001). Nasopharyngeal-neck RT plus systematic chemotherapy (CT) significantly improved OS compared to systematic CT (median OS, 34.0 vs 15.2 months, p = 0.002). However, incorporation of local treatment of metastases did not bring survival benefit to smNPC patients who received nasopharyngeal-neck RT plus systematic CT (median OS, 25.8 vs 35.1 months, p = 0.374).

Conclusion

The sub-staging of the M1 stage in smNPC had promising prognostic value. Adding nasopharyngeal-neck RT on the basis of systematic CT markedly improved the survival of smNPC patients, while addition of local treatment of metastases to nasopharyngeal-neck RT plus systematic CT for smNPC needed further exploration.

Metastatic Patterns and Prognosis of de novo Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the distant metastatic patterns and prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma (mNPC) using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

METHODS

Patients with de novo mNPC who had been diagnosed between 2004 and 2016 were identified from the SEER database. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to calculate OS and CSS. Log-rank tests were employed to measure survival variation among subgroups. Individual predictors of CSS and OS were examined using Cox proportional-hazards regression models in patients with de novo mNPC.

RESULTS

We evaluated 224 patients with de novo mNPC who matched our inclusion criteria. Three-year CSS and OS for the whole cohort was 29.8% and 27.9%, respectively. Univariate analysis indicated that CSS and OS were influenced by age, histology, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and liver metastasis. Neither the number of metastatic sites nor their specific location in bone, lungs, distant lymph nodes or brain significantly affected CSS or OS. The aforementioned independent prognosticators continued to significantly influence survival following multivariate analysis. Taking distant metastasis without liver involvement as a reference, liver metastasis was associated significantly with shorter OS at a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.581 (P = .021) and CSS at a HR of 1.643 (P = .016). Older age, keratinizing squamous cell carcinoma, no chemotherapy, and no radiotherapy were also prognosticators for poor OS (P < .05). Similar results were documented for CSS (P < .05).

CONCLUSION

For patients with de novo mNPC, liver metastasis is an independent prognosticator for inferior CSS and OS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3a Laryngoscope, 131:E1130-E1138, 2021.

Pattern and prognosis of distant metastases in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A large-population retrospective analysis

Currently, the features and prognosis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) with distant metastases are still rarely reported. Thus, the main purpose of our study was to investigate the metastasis patterns of different histological types of NPC and to clarify the prognostic characteristics of metastases at different sites. Patients were enrolled from the SEER program from 2010 to 2016. Chi‐squared tests were used to compare features between groups. The tendency to develop combined metastases was assessed with the odds ratio. The Kaplan‐Meier method was used for the survival analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to select the independent prognostic risk factors for inclusion in the nomogram. In the present study, we found the following: (1) tumors are highly likely to metastasize if they have a larger volume, the regional lymph nodes are relatively large, or the regional lymph nodes are biopsied but not removed; (2) the bone and the brain were the most and least common metastatic sites among all histological types and N stages. Metastasis at two sites was the most common pattern, and bone metastasis was generally associated with metastasis to the liver or brain; (3) the prognostic analyses in metastatic patients showed that cancer‐specific survival (CSS) was relatively worse in patients with multiple metastases, and in those with liver metastasis regardless of the number of other metastatic sites; (4) A nomogram was constructed for clinical use based on four independent prognostic risk indicators, including histology, radiation therapy, chemotherapy, and metastatic status. Our findings provide a reference for clinical decision‐making and future diagnostic screening tests for NPC with distant metastases.