Reconsidering the prognostic significance of tumour deposit count in the TNM staging system for colorectal cancer

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposits in Stage III Colorectal Cancer Patients with Different N Stages: A Population-Based, Retrospective, Cohort Study

PURPOSE

Tumor deposits (TDs) seem to be associated with the prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). The goal of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of TDs among patients with stage III CRC at different N stages.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was performed on two independent cohorts of stage III CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (n = 8232) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (n = 423). Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS).

RESULTS

Of 8232 patients in the SEER cohort, the presence of TDs revealed poorer 5-year OS rates and 5-year CSS rates in all N-stage subgroups. X-tile software identified 5 (5-year OS: P = 0.004; 5-year CSS: P < 0.001) as the optimal cutoff value for TD count in the TD-positive subgroup at the N2 stage. The OS (5-year OS: 62.0% vs. 42.0%, P < 0.001) and CSS (5-year CSS: 66.0% vs. 43.8%, P < 0.001) of patients with five or more TDs were significantly worse than those with one to four TDs in the N2 stage subgroups. Of 423 patients in the Wenzhou cohort, the 3-year OS rate for patients in the positive group was worse than that for patients in the negative group (88.7% vs. 94.3%, P = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

TD count should be considered when evaluating the prognosis of patients with the N2 stage. Those with higher TD counts (≥ 5) might have a worse prognosis.

A new prognostic model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on Cloud-least squares support vector machine

Background

In view of the low accuracy of the prognosis model of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), this study aimed to optimize the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) algorithm to determine the uncertain prognostic factors using a Cloud model, and consequently, to establish a new high-precision prognosis model of ESCC.

Methods

We studied 4,771 ESCC patients(training samples) from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 635 ESCC patients(validation samples) from the Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (HCDC) database, with the same exclusion criteria and inclusion criteria for both databases, and obtained permission to obtain a research data file in the SEER database from the National Cancer Institute. The independent risk factors were analyzed using the log-rank method, survival curves, univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. Finally, the independent prognostic factors were used to construct the nomogram, random forest and Cloud-LSSVM prognostic models were utilized for validation.

Results

The overall median survival time of the SEER database was 14 months (HCDC samples was 46 months), the mean survival time was 26.5 months (HCDC samples was 36.8 months), and the 3-year survival rate was 65.8%. This is because most of the patients with Henan samples are early ESCC, and most of the Seer patients are T3 and T4 people. The multivariate Cox analysis showed that age at diagnosis (P<0.001), sex (P=0.001), race (P=0.002), differentiation grade (P<0.001), pathologic T category (P<0.001), and pathologic M category (P<0.001) were the factors affecting the prognosis of ESCC patients. The SEER data and HCDC database results showed that the accuracy of the Cloud-LSSVM (C-index =0.71, 0.689) model is higher than the differentiation grade (C-index =0.548, 0.506), random forest (C-index =0.649, 0.498), and nomogram (C-index =0.659, 0.563). This new model can realize the unity of the randomness and fuzziness of the Cloud model and utilize the powerful learning and non-linear mapping abilities of LSSVM.

Conclusions

Due to the difference of clans between training samples and test samples, the accuracy of prediction is generally not high, but the accuracy of Cloud-LSSVM model is much higher than other models. The new model provides a clear prognostic superiority over the random forest, nomogram, and other models.

Revised Nodal Staging Integrating Tumor Deposit Counts With Positive Lymph Nodes in Patients With Stage III Colon Cancer

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the prognostic value of tumor deposit (TD) counts and incorporated them with the number of positive lymph nodes to develop a revised nodal staging.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The current American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging on colon cancer includes the TDs only for nodenegative patients, as N1c, and their counts are not considered.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients with stage III colorectal cancer who underwent curative resections between January 2010 and December 2019. The patients were grouped as TD 0, TD 1, TD 2, or TD ≥3 based on their TD counts. Disease-free survival and overall survival were compared.

RESULTS

Of 2446 eligible stage III patients, 658 (26.9%) had TDs. Among them, 500 (76.0%) patients concurrently had positive lymph nodes (LNs). TD counts were significantly related to worse disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival regardless of pT stages or the number of positive LNs. The patients were restaged based on the integrated number of TD counts and positive LNs. The N3 stage, which had ≥10 integrated TDs and positive LNs, was newly classified. Among the patients who completed 6 months of adjuvant chemotherapy, those upstaged to N2 from an initial stage of N1 experienced significantly worse DFS than those confirmed as N1 in the revised N staging. The newly N3-staged patients showed significantly worse DFS than the patients initially staged as N2.

CONCLUSIONS

Revised N staging using the integrated number of TD counts and positive LNs could predict DFS more accurately than current staging. It would also draw greater attention to the patients with high-risk stage III colon cancer staged as N3.

Transcriptomes of the tumor-adjacent normal tissues are more informative than tumors in predicting recurrence in colorectal cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Previous investigations of transcriptomic signatures of cancer patient survival and post-therapy relapse have focused on tumor tissue. In contrast, here we show that in colorectal cancer (CRC) transcriptomes derived from normal tissues adjacent to tumors (NATs) are better predictors of relapse.

RESULTS

Using the transcriptomes of paired tumor and NAT specimens from 80 Korean CRC patients retrospectively determined to be in recurrence or nonrecurrence states, we found that, when comparing recurrent with nonrecurrent samples, NATs exhibit a greater number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) than tumors. Training two prognostic elastic net-based machine learning models-NAT-based and tumor-based in our Samsung Medical Center (SMC) cohort, we found that NAT-based model performed better in predicting the survival when the model was applied to the tumor-derived transcriptomes of an independent cohort of 450 COAD patients in TCGA. Furthermore, compositions of tumor-infiltrating immune cells in NATs were found to have better prognostic capability than in tumors. We also confirmed through Cox regression analysis that in both SMC-CRC as well as in TCGA-COAD cohorts, a greater proportion of genes exhibited significant hazard ratio when NAT-derived transcriptome was used compared to when tumor-derived transcriptome was used.

CONCLUSIONS

Taken together, our results strongly suggest that NAT-derived transcriptomes and immune cell composition of CRC are better predictors of patient survival and tumor recurrence than the primary tumor.

Potential prognostic and predictive value of UBE2N, IMPDH1, DYNC1LI1 and HRASLS2 in colorectal cancer stool specimens

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the most common gastrointestinal malignancy worldwide. The poor specificity and sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test has prompted the development of CRC-related genetic markers for CRC screening and treatment. Gene expression profiles in stool specimens are effective, sensitive and clinically applicable. Herein, a novel advantage of using cells shed from the colon is presented for cost-effective CRC screening. Molecular panels were generated through a series of leave-one-out cross-validation and discriminant analyses. A logistic regression model following reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and immunohistochemistry was used to validate a specific panel for CRC prediction. The panel, consisting of ubiquitin-conjugating enzyme E2 N (UBE2N), inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase 1 (IMPDH1), dynein cytoplasmic 1 light intermediate chain 1 (DYNC1LI1) and phospholipase A and acyltransferase 2 (HRASLS2), accurately recognized patients with CRC and could thus be further investigated as a potential prognostic and predictive biomarker for CRC. UBE2N, IMPDH1 and DYNC1LI1 expression levels were upregulated and HRASLS2 expression was downregulated in CRC tissues. The predictive power of the panel was 96.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 88.1-99.6%] sensitivity and 89.7% (95% CI, 72.6-97.8%) specificity at a predicted cut-off value at 0.540, suggesting that this four-gene panel testing of stool specimens can faithfully mirror the state of the colon. On the whole, the present study demonstrates that screening for CRC or cancer detection in stool specimens collected non-invasively does not require the inclusion of an excessive number of genes, and colonic defects can be identified via the detection of an aberrant protein in the mucosa or submucosa.

Construction of a predictive model for clinical survival in male patients with non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

No clinical prediction model is available for non-metastatic rectal adenocarcinoma in males. Based on demographic and clinicopathological characteristics, we constructed a survival prediction model for the study population.

METHODS

At a ratio of 7:3, 3450 eligible patients were divided into training and validation sets. Optimal cutoff values were calculated using X-tile software. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to find prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Corresponding nomogram prognostic models were also constructed based on predictors.The validity, discriminative ability, predictability, and clinical usefulness of the model were analyzed and assessed.

RESULTS

We identified predictors of survival in the target population and successfully constructed nomograms. In the nomogram prediction model for OS and CSS, the C-index was 0.724 and 0.735, respectively, for the training group and 0.754 and 0.760, respectively, for the validation group. In the validation group, the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve for OS and CSS nomograms was 0.768 and 0.769, respectively, for the 3-year survival rate and 0.755 and 0.747, respectively, for the 5-year survival rate. Kaplan-Meier Survival Curves showed excellent risk discrimination performance of the nomogram (P < 0.05) Calibration curves, time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the prediction model constructed in this study had excellent clinical prediction and decision ability and performed better than the TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

Our nomogram is helpful to evaluate the prognosis of non-metastatic male patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and has guiding significance for clinical treatment.

From Dukes-MAC Staging System to Molecular Classification: Evolving Concepts in Colorectal Cancer

This historical review aimed to summarize the main changes that colorectal carcinoma (CRC) staging systems suffered over time, starting from the creation of the classical Duke’s classification, modified Astler–Coller staging, internationally used TNM (T—primary tumor, N—regional lymph nodes’ status, M—distant metastases) staging system, and ending with molecular classifications and epithelial–mesenchymal transition (EMT) concept. Besides currently used staging parameters, this paper briefly presents the author’s contribution in creating an immunohistochemical (IHC)-based molecular classification of CRC. It refers to the identification of three molecular groups of CRCs (epithelial, mesenchymal and hybrid) based on the IHC markers E-cadherin, β-catenin, maspin, and vimentin. Maspin is a novel IHC antibody helpful for tumor budding assessment, which role depends on its subcellular localization (cytoplasm vs. nuclei). The long road of updating the staging criteria for CRC has not come to an end. The newest prognostic biomarkers, aimed to be included in the molecular classifications, exert predictive roles, and become more and more important for targeted therapy decisions.

Beyond N staging in colorectal cancer: Current approaches and future perspectives

Traditionally, lymph node metastases (LNM) evaluation is essential to the staging of colon cancer patients according to the TNM (tumor–node–metastasis) system. However, in recent years evidence has accumulated regarding the role of emerging pathological features, which could significantly impact the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients. Lymph Node Ratio (LNR) and Log Odds of Positive Lymph Nodes (LODDS) have been shown to predict patients’ prognosis more accurately than traditional nodal staging and it has been suggested that their implementation in existing classification could help stratify further patients with overlapping TNM stage. Tumor deposits (TD) are currently factored within the N1c category of the TNM classification in the absence of lymph node metastases. However, studies have shown that presence of TDs can affect patients’ survival regardless of LNM. Moreover, evidence suggest that presence of TDs should not be evaluated as dichotomic but rather as a quantitative variable. Extranodal extension (ENE) has been shown to correlate with presence of other adverse prognostic features and to impact survival of colorectal cancer patients. In this review we will describe current staging systems and prognostic/predictive factors in colorectal cancer and elaborate on available evidence supporting the implementation of LNR/LODDS, TDs and ENE evaluation in existing classification to improve prognosis estimation and patient selection for adjuvant treatment.

The Prognostic Value of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Colon Cancer With Solitary Tumor Deposit

Purpose

The aim of this study is to investigate the survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with colon cancer with the solitary tumor deposit (TD).

Methods

The primary study outcomes used in this study were colon cancer–specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS). The differences of the distribution of categorical variables in patients with colon cancer with the solitary TD according to adjuvant chemotherapy administration were tested using the Pearson’s chi-square test. The Kaplan–Meier method was utilized to evaluate CSS and OS. Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated on the basis of Cox regression models to assess the prognostic value of different demographic and clinicopathological characteristics.

Results

A total of 877 patients with TanyN1cM0 colon cancer with solitary TD were identified in our analysis. It was found that OS (75.4% vs. 42.8% for 5-year OS rate, p < 0.001) and CSS (82.9% vs. 69.3% for 5-year CSS rate, p < 0.001) of patients with colon cancer with adjuvant chemotherapy administration were significantly better than those without adjuvant chemotherapy administration. Multivariate Cox survival analyses revealed that the overall and colon cancer–specific mortality risks of patients with adjuvant chemotherapy administration were decreased by 64.4% (HR = 0.356, 95% CI = 0.265–0.479, p < 0.001) and 57.4% (HR = 0.426, 95% CI = 0.286–0.634, p < 0.001) compared with those without adjuvant chemotherapy administration, respectively.

Conclusions

Adjuvant chemotherapy administration could significantly improve OS and CSS in patients with colon cancer with the solitary TD. This is the first study to investigate and demonstrate the survival benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with colon cancer with the solitary TD.

Prognostic Value of Tumor Deposit Counts in Patients with Stage III Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the prognostic value of tumor deposits (TDs) counts in stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients and develop a prognostic nomogram.

METHODS

Data on stage III CRC patients from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to assess differences in survival outcomes among patients. The Cox regression analysis was performed to establish the independent prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival and to establish a nomogram. The nomograms' performance was evaluated by calibration plots and concordance index (C-index). Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the clinical utility of the prediction model.

RESULTS

A total of 23,345 CRC patients were included in this study, and 3,578 (15.3%) had TDs. Cox multivariate regression analyses revealed that age, race, histological tumor grade, the administered chemotherapy, pathological type, T-stage, CEA, N-stage, peripheral nerve invasion, and TDs were independent prognostic factors. Patients with many TDs (=0/1-4, HR: 1.325,/≥5 HR: 2.223) had poorer cancer-specific survival. The prognostic value of the number of TDs was comparable to that of lymph node metastasis. The C-indices of the nomogram were superior to TNM staging in training (0.730 vs 0.646) and validation (0.714 vs 0.636) groups. DCA revealed that the nomogram had a higher clinical net benefit compared to TNM staging.

CONCLUSIONS

TDs count is an adverse prognostic factor for stage III CRC patients. Furthermore, the TDs-based nomogram can accurately predict the prognostic outcomes for stage III CRC.

Predictive and Prognostic Assessment Models for Tumor Deposit in Colorectal Cancer Patients With No Distant Metastasis

Background

More and more evidence indicated that tumor deposit (TD) was significantly associated with local recurrence, distant metastasis (DM), and poor prognosis for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aims to explore the main clinical risk factors for the presence of TD in CRC patients with no DM (CRC-NDM) and the prognostic factors for TD-positive patients after surgery.

Methods

The data of patients with CRC-NDM between 2010 and 2017 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors for TD presence. Fine and Gray’s competing-risk model was performed to analyze prognostic factors for TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. A predictive nomogram was constructed using the multivariate logistic regression model. The concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and the calibration were used to evaluate the predictive nomogram. Also, a prognostic nomogram was built based on multivariate competing-risk regression. C-index, the calibration, and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were performed to validate the prognostic model.

Results

The predictive nomogram to predict the presence of TD had a C-index of 0.785 and AUC of 0.787 and 0.782 in the training and validation sets, respectively. From the competing-risk analysis, chemotherapy (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) = 0.542, p < 0.001) can significantly reduce CRC-specific death (CCSD). The prognostic nomogram for the outcome prediction in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD had a C-index of 0.727. The 5-year survival of CCSD was 17.16%, 36.20%, and 63.19% in low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups, respectively (Gray’s test, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

We constructed an easily predictive nomogram in identifying the high-risk TD-positive CRC-NDM patients. Besides, a prognostic nomogram was built to help clinicians identify poor-outcome individuals in postoperative CRC-NDM patients with TD. For the high-risk or medium-risk subgroup, additional chemotherapy may be more advantageous for the TD-positive patients rather than radiotherapy.

The value of tumor deposits in evaluating colorectal cancer survival and metastasis: a population-based retrospective cohort study

Background

The role of tumor deposits (TDs) in TNM staging of colorectal cancer is controversial, especially the relationship with distant metastasis.

Purpose

This study aimed to determine the effect of TDs on the survival of colorectal cancer and the occurrence of distant metastasis and to determine whether TDs (+) patients behaved similarly to stage IV patients.

Methods

A retrospective analysis of CRC patients from two large independent cohorts from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (n = 58775) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University (n = 742).

Results

Univariate logistic analyses revealed that TDs are an independent predictor of liver metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 5.738; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.560–9.248] in the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University’s patients. Meanwhile, TDs are also an independent predictor of isolated organ metastasis [p <0.001; odds ratio (OR): 3.028; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.414–3.79; multiple organ metastases [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 4.778; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.109–5.556]; isolated liver metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 4.395; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.099–4.713] and isolated lung metastasis [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR): 5.738; 95% confidence interval (CI): 3.560–9.248] in the SEER database. Multivariate analyses suggested TDs are an independent poor prognostic factor for distant metastasis (p <0.001).

Conclusions

Our results have shown that compared with patients with negative TDs, CRC patients with positive TDs are more likely to develop distant metastasis. Patients categorized as T4aN2bM0 TDs (+) and T4bN2M0 TDs (+) have a similar prognosis as those with stage IV, and hence these patients should be classified as stage IV.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12957-022-02501-9.

Prognostic and staging value of tumor deposits in patients with rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

Background

The presence of tumor deposits (TDs) is only considered in the absence of lymph node metastases (LNMs) in the current TNM staging system. However, the prognostic value of TDs when concomitant with LNM for rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of TDs and when concomitant with LNMs in rectal cancer after NCRT.

Methods

Patients with rectal cancer who had received NCRT between 2010 and 2016 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 18 (year range, 1975–2016) database. Data were extracted on the following: age, sex, race, TNM stage, total LNs harvested, positive LNs, histologic type, perineural invasion, grade, carcinoma embryonic antigen status, TD number, and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rates. The primary objective was to determine the prognostic impact of TDs on CSS. The effect of the addition of TD to the LNM count for a novel N stage was also evaluated. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox models.

Results

Of 9,620 patients, 865 (9.0%) had TDs. TD-positive patients showed a worse prognosis than TD-negative patients (HR =2.39, 95% CI: 2.04–2.80, P<0.001), and multivariate analysis showed that the presence of TDs was an independent poor prognostic factor (HR =1.41, 95% CI: 1.19–1.67, P<0.001). Regarding the LN status, TDs were associated with a higher risk of cancer-specific death in the LNM- group (HR =2.43, 95% CI: 1.86–3.18, P<0.001), M1 group (HR =1.51, 95% CI: 1.08–2.10, P<0.001), and ypN1 group (HR =2.08, 95% CI: 1.61–2.70, P<0.001), but not in the ypN2 group (HR =0.97, 95% CI: 0.69–1.36, P=0.84). Patients with concomitant TDs and LNM showed significantly worse survival than those with TDs or LNM alone (5-year CSS: 48.2%, 72.2%, and 67.8%, respectively). The 5-year CSS rates were 86.2%, 77.4%, 65.1%, 53.8%, and 46.5% for the novel N0, N1a, N1b, N2a, and N2b groups, respectively (P<0.05 across all groups). Time dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and decision curve analysis showed that the novel N stage was superior to the current ypN stage.

Conclusions

The presence of TDs is an independent poor prognostic factor for LARC patients after NCRT. The concomitant presence of TDs and LNM indicates a significantly worse survival, and the addition of TD to LNM may help to better prompt appropriate risk stratification.

A Six-microRNA Signature Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Tumor Deposits in Colorectal Cancer

Purpose

Tumor deposits (TDs) are acknowledged negative prognostic factors in colorectal cancer (CRC), and their pathogenesis remains a puzzle. This study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram available for preoperative TDs prediction in CRC patients.

Patients and Methods

Patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and the cancer genome atlas (TCGA) databases were randomly divided into training and validation sets according to the sample size ratio of 7:3. Univariate logistic regression was performed for identifying differentially expressed microRNAs between TDs and non-TDs. Nomograms for TDs prediction were developed from the multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and were validated internally in terms of accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility. Based on the target genes, pathways tightly associated with TDs were selected using enrichment analysis.

Results

Six clinicopathologic factors and expressions of six microRNAs (miR-614, miR-1197, miR-4770, miR-3136, miR-3173, and miR-4636) differed significantly between TDs and non-TDs CRC patients from the SEER and TCGA training sets. We compared potential prediction discrimination between two nomograms: a clinicopathologic nomogram and a six-microRNA signature nomogram. The six-microRNA signature nomogram revealed better accuracy than the clinicopathologic one for TDs prediction (AUC values of 0.96 and 0.93 in the validation cohort). The calibration plots and decision curve analysis demonstrated that the six-microRNA signature nomogram had better validity and a greater prognostic benefit versus the clinicopathologic one for TDs prediction. Calcium signaling pathways were closely associated with roles of the six microRNAs in TDs of CRC patients.

Conclusion

The six-microRNA signature nomogram can be used as an efficient tool for preoperative TDs prediction in CRC patients.

Development and Validation of Prognostic Models for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Appraisal of the Literature

(1) Background: An accurate prediction of cancer survival is very important for counseling, treatment planning, follow-up, and postoperative risk assessment in patients with Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC). There has been an increased interest in the development of clinical prognostic models and nomograms which are their graphic representation. The study aimed to revise the prognostic performance of clinical-pathological prognostic models with internal validation for OSCC. (2) Methods: This systematic review was performed according to the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews chapter on searching, the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) guidelines, and the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS). (3) Results: Six studies evaluating overall survival in patients with OSCC were identified. All studies performed internal validation, while only four models were externally validated. (4) Conclusions: Based on the results of this systematic review, it is possible to state that it is necessary to carry out internal validation and shrinkage to correct overfitting and provide an adequate performance for optimism. Moreover, calibration, discrimination and nonlinearity of continuous predictors should always be examined. To reduce the risk of bias the study design used should be prospective and imputation techniques should always be applied to handle missing data. In addition, the complete equation of the prognostic model must be reported to allow updating, external validation in a new context and the subsequent evaluation of the impact on health outcomes and on the cost-effectiveness of care.

Colon Cancer Progression Is Reflected to Monotonic Differentiation in Gene Expression and Pathway Deregulation Facilitating Stage-specific Drug Repurposing

BACKGROUND/AIM

Colon cancer is one of the most common cancer types and the second leading cause of death due to cancer. Many efforts have been performed towards the investigation of molecular alterations during colon cancer progression. However, the identification of stage-specific molecular markers remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to develop a novel computational methodology for the analysis of alterations in differential gene expression and pathway deregulation across colon cancer stages in order to reveal stage-specific biomarkers and reinforce drug repurposing investigation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Transcriptomic datasets of colon cancer were used to identify (a) differentially expressed genes with monotonicity in their fold changes (MEGs) and (b) perturbed pathways with ascending monotonic enrichment (MEPs) related to the number of the participating differentially expressed genes (DEGs), across the four colon cancer stages. Through an in silico drug repurposing pipeline we identified drugs that regulate the expression of MEGs and also target the resulting MEPs.

RESULTS

Our methodology highlighted 15 MEGs and 32 candidate repurposed drugs that affect their expression. We also found 51 MEPs divided into two groups according to their rate of DEG content alteration across colon cancer stages. Focusing on the target MEPs of the highlighted repurposed drugs, we found that one of them, the neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, was targeted by the majority of the candidate drugs. Moreover, we observed that two of the drugs (PIK-75 and troglitazone) target the majority of the resulting MEPs.

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight significant genes and pathways that can be used as stage-specific biomarkers and facilitate the discovery of new potential repurposed drugs for colon cancer. We expect that the computational methodology presented can be applied in a similar way to the analysis of any progressive disease.

[Tumour deposition (TD), a probably underestimated poor prognostic criterion, to be taken into account in the therapeutic management of patients with stage III colon cancer]

The management of colorectal cancer (CRC) relies heavily on TNM staging. In order to improve this staging, it is essential to identify all histological markers bearing a significant prognostic value. Among these, tumor deposits (TDs), defined as tumor foci in the pericolonic or perirectal adipose tissue with no residual lymph node tissue, have been shown to be associated with poor prognosis in cohort studies leading to their individualization in the TNM7 classification as pN1c. However, TDs are only considered in the absence of lymph node metastases. There is no consensus on this particular way of integrating TDs in the TNM classification. Indeed, at the time when the choice of the type of adjuvant treatment and its duration in stage III colon cancers (i.e. with lymph node metastases) is based on pT and pN criteria, taking into account TDs only in the absence of concomitant lymph node metastases is potentially responsible for a misclassification of some patients and wrong therapeutic decisions. In addition, many questions concerning the true definition of TDs, their origin, their prognostic value and the optimization of their consideration remain open. The objective of this review is to provide a synthesis of current knowledge on TDs in CRC, in view of their prognostic importance, their biological complexity and the scientific interest they are currently the subject of.

Comparison of model fit and discriminatory ability of the 8th edition of the tumor-node-metastasis classification and the 9th edition of the Japanese classification to identify stage III colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

The most widely accepted staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) is the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) classification. In Japan, the Japanese Classification of Colorectal, Appendiceal, and Anal Carcinoma (JCCRC) system is used. The two systems differ mainly in relation to tumor deposits (TD) and metastasis in the regional lymph nodes along the main feeding arteries and lateral pelvic lymph nodes (N3). Here, we investigated the prognostic ability of the two systems for stage III CRC.

METHODS

We reviewed 696 consecutive patients who underwent curative resection of stage III CRC at the National Cancer Center Hospital between May 2007 and April 2014. We examined the clinicopathological features of CRC and predicted overall survival (OS) and relapse-free survival (RFS) according to the 8th TNM and 9th JCCRC systems. The systems were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Harrell's concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves.

RESULTS

The 9th JCCRC system was more clinically effective according to AIC (OS, 1199 vs. 1206; RFS, 2047 vs. 2057), showed better discriminatory ability according to the C-index (OS, 0.65 vs. 0.62; RFS, 0.62 vs. 0.58), and its time-dependent ROC curve was superior compared with the 8th TNM system.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that the 9th JCCRC system has superior discriminative ability to the 8th TNM system, because the 9th JCCRC accounts for the presence of TD and N3 disease, which were both significant predictors of poor prognosis. Reconsidering the clinical value of these two factors in the TNM system could improve its clinical significance.

Prognostic Value of the N1c in Stage III and IV Colorectal Cancer: A Propensity Score Matching Study Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database

The prognostic role of the N1c remains unclear in colorectal cancer (CRC). Our study aimed to determine the prognostic value of N1c.

Patients diagnosed in 2010-2015 were accessed from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. COX univariate and multivariate regression analysis and the Kaplan-Meier method were used to assess the impact of the N1c stage on the cause-specific (CSS) and overall survival (OS). Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to construct a matched group with similar propensity scores.

Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the CSS and OS rates in N1a were significantly better than N1c in stage III and IV CRCs after reducing selection bias (CSS: P < 0.001 in stage III, P = 0.041 in stage IV; OS: P < 0.001 in stage III, P = 0.0079 in stage IV). There were no statistical differences in CSS and OS between N1b and N1c (CSS: P = 0.500 in stage III, P = 0.270 in stage IV; OS: P = 0.390 in stage III, P = 0.600 in stage IV). Further, the prognostic value of N1c with only one tumor deposit (TD) is equivalent to N1a based on the comparison of CSS and OS rates (CSS: P = 0.420; OS: P = 0.310). Whereas N1c with only one TD had significantly better CSS and OS than N1b (CSS: P = 0.039; OS: P = 0.037).

The CSS and OS rates of N1c do not achieve a statistical difference with N1b in both stage III and IV CRCs. Significantly, higher CSS and OS rates were found in N1c with only one TD versus N1b stage in stage III CRC.

Prognostic value of tumor deposits in locally advanced rectal cancer: a retrospective study with propensity score matching

BACKGROUND

The actual risks posed by tumor deposits (TDs) in colorectal cancer are still incompletely assessed. We explored the prognostic value of TDs in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients using propensity score matching (PSM) method.

METHODS

Consecutive LARC patients in Peking University First Hospital between 2011 and 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis were conducted to explore prognostic values of TDs. PSM method was conducted to minimize selection bias. The correlation between TDs number and prognosis was explored.

RESULTS

Four hundred and fifty-one LARC patients were recruited, and 78 (17.3%) patients were with TDs. Multivariate Cox analysis identified that the presence of TDs was an independent prognostic risk factor for overall survival (OS) (P = 0.044). PSM identified 76 matched pairs of LARC patients, and Kaplan-Meier curves revealed that patients with TDs experienced worse  OS (log-rank P = 0.0220) and relapse-free survival (RFS) (log-rank P = 0.0117). Subgroup analysis of 50 pairs extracted by PSM from 246 LARC patients with lymph node metastasis (LNM) further proved that TDs were significantly associated with worse OS (log-rank P = 0.0415), and the association was barely significant for RFS (log-rank P = 0.0527). There were non-significant tendencies towards higher mortality in TDs ≥ 2 than TD = 1 group (log-rank P = 0.348 for OS, log-rank P = 0.087 for RFS).

CONCLUSION

Our study manifested that the presence of TDs was an independent risk factor for LARC patients. The prognostic value of TDs for LARC patients with LNM should not be ignored.

Construction of a clinical survival prognostic model for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Nomograms for prognosis prediction in colorectal cancer patients are few, and prognostic indicators differ with age.

AIM

To construct a new nomogram survival prediction tool for middle-aged and elderly patients with stage III rectal adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

A total of 2773 eligible patients were divided into the training cohort (70%) and the validation cohort (30%). Optimal cutoff values were calculated using the X-tile software for continuous variables. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to determine overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS)-related prognostic factors. Two nomograms were successfully constructed. The discriminant and predictive ability and clinical usefulness of the model were also assessed by multiple methods of analysis.

RESULTS

The 95%CI in the training group was 0.719 (0.690-0.749) and 0.733 (0.702-0.74), while that in the validation group was 0.739 (0.696-0.782) and 0.750 (0.701-0.800) for the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models, respectively. In the validation group, the AUC of the three-year survival rate was 0.762 and 0.770, while the AUC of the five-year survival rate was 0.722 and 0.744 for the OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. The nomogram distinguishes all-cause mortality from cancer-specific mortality in patients with different risk grades. The time-dependent AUC and decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good clinical predictive ability and decision efficacy and was significantly better than the tumor-node-metastases staging system.

CONCLUSION

The survival prediction model constructed in this study is helpful in evaluating the prognosis of patients and can aid physicians in clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Low expression of Talin1 is associated with advanced pathological features in colorectal cancer patients

To explore the proper prognostic markers for the likelihood of metastasis in CRC patients. Seventy-seven fresh CRC samples were collected to evaluate the mRNA level of the selected marker using Real-time PCR. Moreover, 648 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded CRC tissues were gathered to evaluate protein expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC) on tissue microarrays. The results of Real-Time PCR showed that low expression of Talin1 was significantly associated with advanced TNM stage (p = 0.034) as well as gender (p = 0.029) in mRNA levels. Similarly, IHC results indicated that a low level of cytoplasmic expression of Talin1 was significantly associated with advanced TNM stage (p = 0.028) as well as gender (p = 0.009) in CRC patients. Moreover, decreased expression of cytoplasmic Talin1 protein was found to be a significant predictor of worse disease-specific survival (DSS) (p = 0.011) in the univariate analysis. In addition, a significant difference was achieved (p = 0.039) in 5-year survival rates of DSS: 65% for low, 72% for moderate, and 88% for high Talin1 protein expression. Observations showed that lower expression of Talin1 at both the gene and protein level may drive the disparity of CRC patients’ outcomes via worse DSS and provide new insights into the development of progression indicators because of its correlation with increased tumor aggressiveness.