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Caldwell JM, Liu G, Geiger E, Heron SF, Eakin CM, De La Cour J, Greene A, Raymundo L, Dryden J, Schlaff A, Stella JS, Kindinger TL, Couch CS, Fenner D, Hoot W, Manzello D, Donahue MJ. Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk: A new product for early warning and management. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2024; 34:e2961. [PMID: 38522943 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2961] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2023] [Revised: 12/04/2023] [Accepted: 01/17/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024]
Abstract
Ecological forecasts are becoming increasingly valuable tools for conservation and management. However, there are few examples of near-real-time forecasting systems that account for the wide range of ecological complexities. We developed a new coral disease ecological forecasting system that explores a suite of ecological relationships and their uncertainty and investigates how forecast skill changes with shorter lead times. The Multi-Factor Coral Disease Risk product introduced here uses a combination of ecological and marine environmental conditions to predict the risk of white syndromes and growth anomalies across reefs in the central and western Pacific and along the east coast of Australia and is available through the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch program. This product produces weekly forecasts for a moving window of 6 months at a resolution of ~5 km based on quantile regression forests. The forecasts show superior skill at predicting disease risk on withheld survey data from 2012 to 2020 compared with predecessor forecast systems, with the biggest improvements shown for predicting disease risk at mid- to high-disease levels. Most of the prediction uncertainty arises from model uncertainty, so prediction accuracy and precision do not improve substantially with shorter lead times. This result arises because many predictor variables cannot be accurately forecasted, which is a common challenge across ecosystems. Weekly forecasts and scenarios can be explored through an online decision support tool and data explorer, co-developed with end-user groups to improve use and understanding of ecological forecasts. The models provide near-real-time disease risk assessments and allow users to refine predictions and assess intervention scenarios. This work advances the field of ecological forecasting with real-world complexities and, in doing so, better supports near-term decision making for coral reef ecosystem managers and stakeholders. Secondarily, we identify clear needs and provide recommendations to further enhance our ability to forecast coral disease risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jamie M Caldwell
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, Kaneohe, Hawaii, USA
- High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Gang Liu
- NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, Maryland, USA
| | - Erick Geiger
- NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, Maryland, USA
- Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Scott F Heron
- Physical Sciences and Marine Geophysics Laboratory, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - C Mark Eakin
- Corals and Climate, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA
| | - Jacqueline De La Cour
- NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, Maryland, USA
- Global Science & Technology, Inc., Greenbelt, Maryland, USA
| | - Austin Greene
- Hawai'i Institute of Marine Biology, Kaneohe, Hawaii, USA
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
| | | | - Jen Dryden
- Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Audrey Schlaff
- Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jessica S Stella
- Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
| | - Tye L Kindinger
- Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Courtney S Couch
- Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
- Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Douglas Fenner
- Lynker Technologies, LLC, Contractor, NOAA Fisheries Service, Pacific Islands Regional Office, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
| | - Whitney Hoot
- Guam Coral Reef Initiative, Government of Guam, Hagatña, Guam, USA
| | - Derek Manzello
- NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Coral Reef Watch, College Park, Maryland, USA
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Aguiar DK, Wiegner TN, Colbert SL, Burns J, Abaya L, Beets J, Couch C, Stewart J, Panelo J, Remple K, Nelson C. Detection and impact of sewage pollution on South Kohala's coral reefs, Hawai'i. MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN 2023; 188:114662. [PMID: 36739712 DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.114662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/26/2022] [Revised: 01/18/2023] [Accepted: 01/23/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Sewage pollution from on-site sewage disposal systems and injection wells is impacting coral reefs worldwide. Our study documented the presence and impact of sewage on South Kohala's coral reefs, on Hawai'i Island, through benthic water quality and macroalgal sampling (fecal indicator bacteria, nutrients, δ15N macroalgal tissue), NO3- stable isotope mixing models, water motion measurements, and coral reef surveys. Sewage pollution was moderate on the offshore reef from benthic seeps, and water motion mixed and diluted it across the benthos. These conditions likely contribute to the dominance of turf algae cover, and the severity and prevalence of growth anomalies and algal overgrowth on corals. Use of multiple indicators and studying water motion was necessary to assess sewage pollution and identify environmental drivers associated with impaired coral health conditions. Methods used in this study can be utilized by natural resource managers to identify and reduce anthropogenic stressors to coral reefs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Devon K Aguiar
- Tropical Conservation Biology and Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Tracy N Wiegner
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Steven L Colbert
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - John Burns
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Leilani Abaya
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - James Beets
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Courtney Couch
- NOAA/Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Ecosystem Sciences Division, NOAA Inouye Regional Center, 1845 Wasp Blvd, Bldg. # 176, Honolulu, HI 96818, USA.
| | - Julia Stewart
- Marine Science Department, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Jazmine Panelo
- Tropical Conservation Biology and Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Hawai'i at Hilo, 200 W. Kawili St., Hilo, HI 96720, USA.
| | - Kristina Remple
- Daniel K. Inouye Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education, Department of Oceanography and Sea Grant College Program, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1950 East West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
| | - Craig Nelson
- Daniel K. Inouye Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education, Department of Oceanography and Sea Grant College Program, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, 1950 East West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA.
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3
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Hutson KS, Davidson IC, Bennett J, Poulin R, Cahill PL. Assigning cause for emerging diseases of aquatic organisms. Trends Microbiol 2023:S0966-842X(23)00031-8. [PMID: 36841735 DOI: 10.1016/j.tim.2023.01.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2022] [Revised: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 02/25/2023]
Abstract
Resolving the cause of disease (= aetiology) in aquatic organisms is a challenging but essential goal, heightened by increasing disease prevalence in a changing climate and an interconnected world of anthropogenic pathogen spread. Emerging diseases play important roles in evolutionary ecology, wildlife conservation, the seafood industry, recreation, cultural practices, and human health. As we emerge from a global pandemic of zoonotic origin, we must focus on timely diagnosis to confirm aetiology and enable response to diseases in aquatic ecosystems. Those systems' resilience, and our own sustainable use of seafood, depend on it. Synchronising traditional and recent advances in microbiology that span ecological, veterinary, and medical fields will enable definitive assignment of risk factors and causal agents for better biosecurity management and healthier aquatic ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kate S Hutson
- Cawthron Institute, 98 Halifax St East, Nelson, New Zealand; College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia.
| | - Ian C Davidson
- Cawthron Institute, 98 Halifax St East, Nelson, New Zealand
| | - Jerusha Bennett
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
| | - Robert Poulin
- Department of Zoology, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand
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Ricci F, Leggat W, Page CE, Ainsworth TD. Coral growth anomalies, neoplasms, and tumors in the Anthropocene. Trends Microbiol 2022; 30:1160-1173. [PMID: 35718641 DOI: 10.1016/j.tim.2022.05.013] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/18/2022] [Revised: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
One of the most widespread coral diseases linked to anthropogenic activities and recorded on reefs worldwide is characterized by anomalous growth formations in stony corals, referred to as coral growth anomalies (GAs). The biological functions of GA tissue include limited reproduction, reduced access to resources, and weakened ability to defend against predators. Transcriptomic analyses have revealed that, in some cases, disease progression can involve host genes related to oncogenesis, suggesting that the GA tissues may be malignant neoplasms such as those developed by vertebrates. The number of studies reporting the presence of GAs in common reef-forming species highlights the urgency of a thorough understanding of the pathology and causative factors of this disease and its parallels to higher organism malignant tissue growth. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the etiology and holobiont features of GAs in reef-building corals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Ricci
- University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Kensington 2033, NSW, Australia.
| | - William Leggat
- University of Newcastle, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, Callaghan 2309, NSW, Australia
| | - Charlotte E Page
- University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Kensington 2033, NSW, Australia
| | - Tracy D Ainsworth
- University of New South Wales, School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Kensington 2033, NSW, Australia
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5
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Foo SA, Asner GP. Impacts of remotely sensed environmental drivers on coral outplant survival. Restor Ecol 2020. [DOI: 10.1111/rec.13309] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Shawna A. Foo
- Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona 85287 U.S.A
| | - Gregory P. Asner
- Center for Global Discovery and Conservation Science Arizona State University Tempe, Arizona 85287 U.S.A
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