The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change

Global Water Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa and how to strengthen science-policy dialogues on transboundary governance and cooperation

The United Nations Water Conference 2023 highlighted the need for concrete actions to boost integrated water resources management for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and called for strategies to enhance cooperation among stakeholders. Technical cooperation between countries and institutions in transboundary systems, e.g., on environmental data collection, is an effective way to promote international diplomacy and prevent disputes between riparian states. Still, establishing collaborations to inform bilateral dialogues on the identification of environmental challenges, their causes, and development priorities may be a difficult task in itself. This is particularly true in the African context because of limited resources and lack of data. In this paper, we analyse the case of nine transboundary river basins in Sub-Saharan Africa to identify which water-management challenges are perceived as most important by the different riparian countries from a policy and scientific perspective. Our insights are based on the most up-to-date scientific papers, open access reports and technical literature, river basin authority's strategy papers, projects' summary reports, and national policy documents. We also complement these sources with the pieces of information we gained through collaborations with regional and local experts, and management bodies (such as river basin authorities). We highlight the current water-related conflicts and the gap between the priorities identified by the scientific community and different riparian countries on how to tackle hydro-climatic change and improve food and energy security, human and environmental health. Based on our experience, we discuss some keys to building trust among stakeholders, strengthening cooperation, and identifying shared water-governance measures in transboundary river basins. They are: (i) connect science and policy to provide sound knowledge for the right questions, (ii) value local knowledge and exploit the complementarity of different perspectives, (iii) consider multiple spatial scales and multi-level stakeholders to leave no one behind, (iv) promote a culture which values trade-offs and handles complexity, and (v) co-create data and knowledge to facilitate stakeholder dialogue from problem definition to intervention identification.

Factors impacting water quality and quantity in rapidly expanding urban areas based on the DPSIR model: experiences and challenges from Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia

Due to the increasing pressures of global change, such as urbanization, climate change, population growth, and socioeconomic changes, cities around the world are facing significant water challenges, both in terms of supply and quality. This emphasizes the need for concerted effort to manage water supplies effectively for sustainable development. The driver, pressure, state, impact, and response (DPSIR) model was applied in this study to determine the underlying causes of Addis Ababa's water supply and quality issues. Field observations, key informant interviews, and previously published reports were used to identify these variables, impacts, and coping mechanisms. The model suggests that issues with urban water are caused by inadequate waste management, fast urbanization, climate change, sociodemographic shifts, economic challenges, changes in land use and land cover, and institutional pressures. As a result, aquatic ecosystems endure damage and there is also an increase in water-related diseases and unmet water demand. Some of the responses to these effects include using bottled water, digging boreholes, harvesting rainwater, planting trees, and soliciting funds. The study concludes by recommending an integrated approach to managing the risks of declining water quality and shortage. This study will advance the important empirical understanding of how urban water supply and quality are impacted by environmental stresses on a global scale. It will also positively impact the development of sustainable water management policies and practices.

Assessment of lake area in response to climate change at varying elevations: A case study of Mt. Tianshan, Central Asia

Changes in lake area (water surface area) are often considered accurate and sensitive representations of climate change. However, the role that elevation plays in this dynamic is somewhat unclear; studies remain inconclusive as to whether lake responses are consistent across elevation gradients. Here, we used Landsat and keyhole satellite images to quantify lake area changes from the 1960s to 2020 at different elevations in Central Asia's Tianshan Mountains and relate them to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. The results revealed that all low-elevation lakes showed a decreasing trend, and the total area of all monitored low-elevation lakes was reduced by 18.50 %. The total area of the mid-elevation lakes decreased by 0.16 %, while the total area of the high-elevation glacial lakes increased by 4.35 %. Lakes are recharged by a variety of influxes including glacial meltwater and precipitation. Notably, human activities (urban and agricultural water consumption) were the dominant factors in the shrinkage of low-elevation lakes. Climatic factors were the main driving factors of mid-elevation lake changes, and these lakes appeared to be more sensitive to temperature changes than lakes at other elevations. In addition, significant warming dominated area changes in high-elevation proglacial and unconnected glacial lakes. Overall, those results emphasized that when using lakes to reconstruct paleoclimates or predict lake evolution, it is necessary to consider how elevation gradients and recharge types may affect lake sensitivity to variations in climatic and anthropogenic activity.

Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water variations in response to rainfall fluctuations under recent climate conditions (2000-2020)

Monitoring the evolution of the Sahelian environment is a major challenge because the great Sahelian droughts, marked by significant environmental consequences and social impacts, contributed, for example, to the drying up of Lake Chad. We combined remote sensing images with a water level database from the Hydroweb project to determine the response of Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water variations to rainfall fluctuations in the Lake Chad watershed under recent climate conditions. The variance in lake surface water levels was determined by computing the monthly anomaly time series of surface water height and area from the Hydroweb datasets. The spatiotemporal variability of watershed rainfall and vegetation cover of Lake Chad was highlighted through multivariate statistical analysis. The spatial distribution of correlations between watershed rainfall and Lake Chad vegetation cover was investigated. The results show an increase in watershed rainfall, vegetation cover, and surface water area and height, as their slopes were all positive i.e., 5.1 10^-4 (mm/day); 4.26 10^-6 (ndvi unit/day); 1.2 10^-3 (km²/day) and 6 10^-5 (m/day), respectively. The rainfall variations in the watershed drive those of Lake Chad vegetation cover and surface water, as the rainfall trend was strongly and positively correlated with those of vegetation cover (0.79), surface water height (0.57), and area (0.53). The time lag between the watershed rainfall fluctuations and lake surface water variations corresponded to approximately ∼112 days. Between rainfall variations and vegetation cover changes, the spatial distribution of the time lag showed a response time of <16 days in the western shores of the lake and on both sides of the great barrier, about 16 days in the bare soils of the northern basin and the eastern part of the south basin, and >64 days in the marshlands of the southern basin. For the analysis of lakes around the world, this research provides a robust method that computes the spatiotemporal variances of their trends and seasonality and correlates these with the spatiotemporal variances of climate changes. The correlations obtained have strong potential for predicting future changes in lake surface water worldwide.

Satellite-derived multivariate world-wide lake physical variable timeseries for climate studies

A consistent dataset of lake surface water temperature, ice cover, water-leaving reflectance, water level and extent is presented. The collection constitutes the Lakes Essential Climate Variable (ECV) for inland waters. The data span combined satellite observations from 1992 to 2020 inclusive and quantifies over 2000 relatively large lakes, which represent a small fraction of the number of lakes worldwide but a significant fraction of global freshwater surface. Visible and near-infrared optical imagery, thermal imagery and microwave radar data from satellites have been exploited. All observations are provided in a common grid at 1/120° latitude-longitude resolution, jointly in daily files. The data/algorithms have been validated against in situ measurements where possible. Consistency analysis between the variables has guided the development of the joint dataset. It is the most complete collection of consistent satellite observations of the Lakes ECV currently available. Lakes are of significant interest to scientific disciplines such as hydrology, limnology, climatology, biogeochemistry and geodesy. They are a vital resource for freshwater supply, and key sentinels for global environmental change.

Water Resources in Africa under Global Change: Monitoring Surface Waters from Space

ABSTRACT

The African continent hosts some of the largest freshwater systems worldwide, characterized by a large distribution and variability of surface waters that play a key role in the water, energy and carbon cycles and are of major importance to the global climate and water resources. Freshwater availability in Africa has now become of major concern under the combined effect of climate change, environmental alterations and anthropogenic pressure. However, the hydrology of the African river basins remains one of the least studied worldwide and a better monitoring and understanding of the hydrological processes across the continent become fundamental. Earth Observation, that offers a cost-effective means for monitoring the terrestrial water cycle, plays a major role in supporting surface hydrology investigations. Remote sensing advances are therefore a game changer to develop comprehensive observing systems to monitor Africa's land water and manage its water resources. Here, we review the achievements of more than three decades of advances using remote sensing to study surface waters in Africa, highlighting the current benefits and difficulties. We show how the availability of a large number of sensors and observations, coupled with models, offers new possibilities to monitor a continent with scarce gauged stations. In the context of upcoming satellite missions dedicated to surface hydrology, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), we discuss future opportunities and how the use of remote sensing could benefit scientific and societal applications, such as water resource management, flood risk prevention and environment monitoring under current global change.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

The hydrology of African surface water is of global importance, yet it remains poorly monitored and understoodComprehensive review of remote sensing and modeling advances to monitor Africa's surface water and water resourcesFuture opportunities with upcoming satellite missions and to translate scientific advances into societal applications.

Greenhouse gas emissions from African lakes are no longer a blind spot

Natural lakes are thought to be globally important sources of greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O) to the atmosphere although nearly no data have been previously reported from Africa. We collected CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O data in 24 African lakes that accounted for 49% of total lacustrine surface area of the African continent and covered a wide range of morphology and productivity. The surface water concentrations of dissolved CO₂ were much lower than values attributed in current literature to tropical lakes and lower than in boreal systems because of a higher productivity. In contrast, surface water-dissolved CH₄ concentrations were generally higher than in boreal systems. The lowest CO₂ and the highest CH₄ concentrations were observed in the more shallow and productive lakes. Emissions of CO₂ may likely have been substantially overestimated by a factor between 9 and 18 in African lakes and between 6 and 26 in pan-tropical lakes.

Decrease in the Water Level of Lake Prespa (North Macedonia) Studied by Remote Sensing Methodology: Relation with Hydrology and Agriculture

The Ohrid-Prespa lake system is the oldest and most diverse permanent lake system in Europe, dating from the Pliocene era and aged at over 4Ma. Its smaller component is Lake Macro Prespa (thereafter called Prespa), shared by North Macedonia, Albania, and Greece. Lake Prespa’s depth was reported as 14 m mean and 48 m maximum before its major water level decline. The lake is highly sensitive to external impacts, including climate change, and has been suffering major water loss for decades. A lake-level decline of almost 10 m was documented between 1950 and 2009 due to restricted precipitation and increased water abstraction for irrigation. This study describes the changes in the surface size of Prespa Lake and the vegetation/land use in the surrounding area in the period 1984–2020 using satellite images (remote sensing, Landsat 5 & 8 images by United States Geological Survey). The lake lost 18.87 km2 of surface in this period (6.9% of its size, dropping from 273.38 km2 to 254.51 km2). Water loss was greater in the period 1987–1993 and 1998–2004. The Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the area (app. 4950 km2) surrounding Lake Prespa revealed an increase in the mean NDVI values over the period studied (1984–2020), pointing to a general increase in vegetation. Areas with NDVI > 0.13 increased from 78% in 1984 to 86% in 2020, while those with the highest vegetation intensity (NDVI > 0.45) increased by 40%. These changes in vegetation may be related to the water loss of the lake.

Calibration and Validation of SWAT Model by Using Hydrological Remote Sensing Observables in the Lake Chad Basin

Model calibration and validation are challenging in poorly gauged basins. We developed and applied a new approach to calibrate hydrological models using distributed geospatial remote sensing data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated using only twelve months of remote sensing data on actual evapotranspiration (ETa) geospatially distributed in the 37 sub-basins of the Lake Chad Basin in Africa. Global sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify influential model parameters by applying the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm–version 2 (SUFI-2), included in the SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP). This procedure is designed to deal with spatially variable parameters and estimates either multiplicative or additive corrections applicable to the entire model domain, which limits the number of unknowns while preserving spatial variability. The sensitivity analysis led us to identify fifteen influential parameters, which were selected for calibration. The optimized parameters gave the best model performance on the basis of the high Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and determination coefficient (R2). Four sets of remote sensing ETa data products were applied in model calibration, i.e., ETMonitor, GLEAM, SSEBop, and WaPOR. Overall, the new approach of using remote sensing ETa for a limited period of time was robust and gave a very good performance, with R2 > 0.9, NSE > 0.8, and KGE > 0.75 applying to the SWAT ETa vs. the ETMonitor ETa and GLEAM ETa. The ETMonitor ETa was finally adopted for further model applications. The calibrated SWAT model was then validated during 2010–2015 against remote sensing data on total water storage change (TWSC) with acceptable performance, i.e., R2 = 0.57 and NSE = 0.55, and remote sensing soil moisture data with R2 and NSE greater than 0.85.

Decadal Lake Volume Changes (2003–2020) and Driving Forces at a Global Scale

Lakes play a key role in the global water cycle, providing essential water resources and ecosystem services for humans and wildlife. Quantifying long-term changes in lake volume at a global scale is therefore important to the sustainability of humanity and natural ecosystems. Yet, such an estimate is still unavailable because, unlike lake area, lake volume is three-dimensional, challenging to be estimated consistently across space and time. Here, taking advantage of recent advances in remote sensing technology, especially NASA’s ICESat-2 satellite laser altimeter launched in 2018, we generated monthly volume series from 2003 to 2020 for 9065 lakes worldwide with an area ≥ 10 km2. We found that the total volume of the 9065 lakes increased by 597 km3 (90% confidence interval 239–2618 km3). Validation against in situ measurements showed a correlation coefficient of 0.98, an RMSE (i.e., root mean square error) of 0.57 km3 and a normalized RMSE of 2.6%. In addition, 6753 (74.5%) of the lakes showed an increasing trend in lake volume and were spatially clustered into nine hot spots, most of which are located in sparsely populated high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau; 2323 (25.5%) of the lakes showed a decreasing trend in lake volume and were clustered into six hot spots—most located in the world’s arid/semi-arid regions where lakes are scarce, but population density is high. Our results uncovered, from a three-dimensional volumetric perspective, spatially uneven lake changes that aggravate the conflict between human demands and lake resources. The situation is likely to intensify given projected higher temperatures in glacier-covered regions and drier climates in arid/semi-arid areas. The 15 hot spots could serve as a blueprint for prioritizing future lake research and conservation efforts.

Interannual Variability of Water Level in Two Largest Lakes of Europe

Regional climate change affects the state of inland water bodies and their water balance, which is determined by a number of hydrometeorological and hydrogeological factors. An integral characteristic of changes in the water balance is the behavior of the level of lakes and reservoirs, which not only largely determines the physical and ecological state of water bodies, but also significantly affects the coastal infrastructure and socio-economic development of the region. This paper investigates the interannual variability of the level of the Ladoga and Onega lakes, the largest lakes in Europe located in the northwest of Russia, according to satellite altimetry data for 1993–2020. For this purpose, we used three specialized altimetry databases: DAHITI, G-REALM, and HYDROWEB. Water level data from these altimetry databases were compared with in-situ records at water level gauge stations. Information on air temperature (1945–2019) and precipitation (1966–2019) acquired at three meteostations located at Ladoga and Onega lakes was used to investigate interannual trends in the regional climate change. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of the lake level rise and regional climate warming on the infrastructure and operability of railways in this region.

Surface Water Storage in Rivers and Wetlands Derived from Satellite Observations: A Review of Current Advances and Future Opportunities for Hydrological Sciences

Surface water storage (SWS), the amount of freshwater stored in rivers/wetlands/floodplains/lakes, and its variations are key components of the water cycle and land surface hydrology, with strong feedback and linkages with climate variability. They are also very important for water resources management. However, it is still very challenging to measure and to obtain accurate estimates of SWS variations for large river basins at adequate time/space sampling. Satellite observations offer great opportunities to measure SWS changes, and several methods have been developed combining multisource observations for different environments worldwide. With the upcoming launch in 2022 of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission, which will provide, for the first time, direct estimates of SWS variations with an unprecedented spatial resolution (~100 m), it is timely to summarize the recent advances in the estimates of SWS from satellite observations and how they contribute to a better understanding of large-scale hydrological processes. Here, we review the scientific literature and present major results regarding the dynamic of surface freshwater in large rivers, floodplains, and wetlands. We show how recent efforts have helped to characterize the variations in SWS change across large river basins, including during extreme climatic events, leading to an overall better understanding of the continental water cycle. In the context of SWOT and forthcoming SWS estimates at the global scale, we further discuss new opportunities for hydrological and multidisciplinary sciences. We recommend that, in the near future, SWS should be considered as an essential water variable to ensure its long-term monitoring.

Evaluation of the Performances of Radar and Lidar Altimetry Missions for Water Level Retrievals in Mountainous Environment: The Case of the Swiss Lakes

Radar altimetry is now commonly used to provide long-term monitoring of inland water levels in complement to or for replacing disappearing in situ networks of gauge stations. Recent improvements in tracking and acquisition modes improved the quality the water retrievals. The newly implemented Open Loop mode is likely to increase the number of monitored water bodies owing to the use of an a priori elevation, especially in hilly and mountainous areas. The novelty of this study is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the performances of the past and current radar altimetry missions according to their acquisition (Low Resolution Mode or Synthetic Aperture Radar) and tracking (close or open loop) modes, and acquisition frequency (Ku or Ka) in a mountainous area where tracking losses of the signal are likely to occur, as well as of the recently launched ICESat-2 and GEDI lidar missions. To do so, we evaluate the quality of water level retrievals from most radar altimetry missions launched after 1995 over eight lakes in Switzerland, using the recently developed ALtimetry Time Series software, to compare the performances of the new tracking and acquisition modes and also the impact of the frequency used. The combination of the Open Loop tracking mode with the Synthetic Aperture Radar acquisition mode on SENTINEL-3A and B missions outperforms the classical Low Resolution Mode of the other missions with a lake observability greater than 95%, an almost constant bias of (−0.17 ± 0.04) m, a RMSE generally lower than 0.07 m and a R most of the times higher than 0.85 when compared to in situ gauge records. To increase the number of lakes that can be monitored and the temporal sampling of the water level retrievals, data acquired by lidar altimetry missions were also considered. Very accurate results were also obtained with ICESat-2 data with RMSE lower than 0.06 and R higher than 0.95 when compared to in situ water levels. An almost constant bias (0.42 ± 0.03) m was also observed. More contrasted results were obtained using GEDI. As these data were available on a shorter time period, more analyses are necessary to determine their potential for retrieving water levels.

Groundwater Storage Changes in the Major North African Transboundary Aquifer Systems during the GRACE Era (2003–2016)

Groundwater is an essential component of the terrestrial water cycle and a key resource for supplying water to billions of people and for sustaining domestic and economic (agricultural and industrial) activities, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The goal of this study is to analyze the recent groundwater changes which occurred in the major North African transboundary aquifers in the beginning of the 21st century. Groundwater storage anomalies were obtained by removing soil moisture in the root zone (and surface water in the case of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System) from the terrestrial water storage anomalies estimated using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over the 2003–2016 time period. Spatio-temporal changes in groundwater storage contrast significantly among the different transboundary aquifers. Low changes (lower than 10 km3) were observed in the Tindouf Aquifer System but they were found to be highly correlated (R = 0.74) to atmospheric fluxes (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P − ET) at annual scale. The GRACE data revealed huge water loss in the North Western Sahara and the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer Systems, above 30 km3 and around 50 km3, respectively. In the former case, the aquifer depletion can be attributed to both climate (R = 0.67 against P − ET) and water abstraction, and only to water abstraction in the latter case. The increase in water abstraction results from an increase in irrigated areas and population growth. For these two aquifers, a deceleration in the water loss observed after 2013 is likely to be attributed either to an increase in rainfall favoring rain-fed agriculture or to measures taken to reduce the over-exploitation of the groundwater resources.

Recent Budget of Hydroclimatology and Hydrosedimentology of the Congo River in Central Africa

Although the Congo Basin is still one of the least studied river basins in the world, this paper attempts to provide a multidisciplinary but non-exhaustive synthesis on the general hydrology of the Congo River by highlighting some points of interest and some particular results obtained over a century of surveys and scientific studies. The Congo River is especially marked by its hydrological regularity only interrupted by the wet decade of 1960, which is its major anomaly over nearly 120 years of daily observations. Its interannual flow is 40,500 m3 s−1. This great flow regularity should not hide important spatial variations. As an example, we can cite the Ubangi basin, which is the most northern and the most affected by a reduction in flow, which has been a cause for concern since 1970 and constitutes a serious hindrance for river navigation. With regard to material fluxes, nearly 88 × 106 tonnes of material are exported annually from the Congo Basin to the Atlantic Ocean, composed of 33.6 × 106 tonnes of TSS, 38.1 × 106 tonnes of TDS and 16.2 × 106 tonnes of DOC. In this ancient flat basin, the absence of mountains chains and the extent of its coverage by dense rainforest explains that chemical weathering (10.6 t km−2 year−1 of TDS) slightly predominates physical erosion (9.3 t km−2 year−1 of TSS), followed by organic production (4.5 t km−2 year−1 of DOC). As the interannual mean discharges are similar, it can be assumed that these interannual averages of material fluxes, calculated over the longest period (2006–2017) of monthly monitoring of its sedimentology and bio-physical-chemistry, are therefore representative of the flow record available since 1902 (with the exception of the wet decade of 1960). Spatial heterogeneity within the Congo Basin has made it possible to establish an original hydrological classification of right bank tributaries, which takes into account vegetation cover and lithology to explain their hydrological regimes. Those of the Batéké plateau present a hydroclimatic paradox with hydrological regimes that are among the most stable on the planet, but also with some of the most pristine waters as a result of the intense drainage of an immense sandy-sandstone aquifer. This aquifer contributes to the regularity of the Congo River flows, as does the buffer role of the mysterious “Cuvette Centrale”. As the study of this last one sector can only be done indirectly, this paper presents its first hydrological regime calculated by inter-gauging station water balance. Without neglecting the indispensable in situ work, the contributions of remote sensing and numerical modelling should be increasingly used to try to circumvent the dramatic lack of field data that persists in this basin.

Insecurity, Resource Scarcity, and Migration to Camps of Internally Displaced Persons in Northeast Nigeria

For almost two decades, the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) in general and northeast Nigeria in particular have been subject to the insurgency of the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram. This region is also known for its poor environmental conditions that mostly manifest in land desertification and water scarcity. We analyze the impact of the insecurity and conflict on migration from the most affected rural areas of northeast Nigeria to Maiduguri. We also explore the role that water scarcity and land desertification play in the decision of local people to migrate. Data were collected by interviewing 204 internally displaced persons (IDPs) at the Bakassi IDP camp in Maiduguri between March and May 2019. Experts were also interviewed at various governmental, non-governmental, and international institutions in Abuja. Respondents at the Bakassi IDP camp came from Guzamala, Gwoza, Marte, Monguno, and Nganzai. Though insecurity created by the conflict between Boko Haram insurgents and government forces was mentioned by all respondents as the main factor that triggered migration, this study shows that the decision to migrate was also a function of other factors that differ between communities. These factors include the geographical location of the community, land ownership, the socioeconomic status of the migrants, access to water and land, and wealth. This study reveals that in some communities, it was possible for people to live with conflict if they were still able to practice farming or if they had additional sources of income such as small businesses. The decision to migrate was only taken when the practice of such activities was no longer possible and they had nothing to hold on to.