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Kolanowska M, Rewicz A, Nowak S. Can global warming be beneficial for Arctic-alpine orchid species? Outcomes from ecological niche modeling for Chamorchis alpina (L.) Rich. (Orchidaceae). THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 943:173616. [PMID: 38844225 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/14/2024] [Revised: 05/22/2024] [Accepted: 05/27/2024] [Indexed: 06/15/2024]
Abstract
The disjunct Arctic-alpine plants that persist on isolated mountain sites at the limits of their geographical range are particularly sensitive indicators of climate change effects. Here, we investigated a remarkably fragile plant, the smallest orchid in Europe, Chamorchis alpina. The ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach was employed not only to verify the shift in the range of the studied orchid but also to evaluate the future overlap between this plant population and its pollen vectors, Dasytes alpigradus, Formica lemani and Leptothorax acervorum. Our analyses showed that the bioclimatic preferences of the northern (Scandinavian) populations differed from those of the southern populations located in the Alps and Carpathians. Surprisingly, both C. alpina groups will expand their potential ranges under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario, and additional suitable niches will become available for the northern group under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. The Scandinavian populations will face significant habitat loss (36 %) in the SSP5-8.5 projection. The southern group will lose suitable niches under both the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios (33 % and 58 %, respectively). For all pollinators of C. alpina, global warming will be favorable, and all three species will expand their potential ranges under all analyzed climate change scenarios. Our research suggests that a "middle of the road" scenario of climate change (SSP2-4.5), which assumes that socioeconomic factors follow historical trends, will not be harmful to the studied orchid or possibly other elements of Arctic-alpine flora, but all other scenarios that predict increases in CO2 emissions will result in a decreases in the coverage of suitable C. alpina niches, especially in the alpine region. At the same time, an overall expansion of alpine dwarf orchid pollen vectors is predicted, so even within a reduced geographical range, the orchid population will be able to reproduce sexually.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Kolanowska
- Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, University of Lodz, ul. Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Lodz, Poland
| | - Agnieszka Rewicz
- Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, University of Lodz, ul. Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Lodz, Poland
| | - Sławomir Nowak
- Faculty of Biology, Department of Plant Taxonomy and Nature Conservation, University of Gdańsk, ul. Wita Stwosza 59, 80-308 Gdańsk, Poland.
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Pica A, Vela D, Magrini S. Forest Orchids under Future Climate Scenarios: Habitat Suitability Modelling to Inform Conservation Strategies. PLANTS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2024; 13:1810. [PMID: 38999650 PMCID: PMC11243989 DOI: 10.3390/plants13131810] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/31/2024] [Revised: 06/24/2024] [Accepted: 06/25/2024] [Indexed: 07/14/2024]
Abstract
Orchidaceae is one of the largest and most diverse families of flowering plants in the world but also one of the most threatened. Climate change is a global driver of plant distribution and may be the cause of their disappearance in some regions. Forest orchids are associated with specific biotic and abiotic environmental factors, that influence their local presence/absence. Changes in these conditions can lead to significant differences in species distribution. We studied three forest orchids belonging to different genera (Cephalanthera, Epipactis and Limodorum) for their potential current and future distribution in a protected area (PA) of the Northern Apennines. A Habitat Suitability Model was constructed for each species based on presence-only data and the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was used for the modelling. Climatic, edaphic, topographic, anthropogenic and land cover variables were used as environmental predictors and processed in the model. The aim is to identify the environmental factors that most influence the current species distribution and the areas that are likely to contain habitats suitable for providing refuge for forest orchids and ensuring their survival under future scenarios. This will allow PA authorities to decide whether to invest more resources in conserving areas that are potential refuges for threatened species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonio Pica
- Department of Ecological and Biological Sciences, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Daniele Vela
- Department of Ecological and Biological Sciences, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
| | - Sara Magrini
- Department of Ecological and Biological Sciences, University of Tuscia, 01100 Viterbo, Italy
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Li KJ, Liu XF, Yang L, Shen SK. Alpine Rhododendron population contractions lead to spatial distribution mismatch with their pollinators under climate change. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 926:171832. [PMID: 38521263 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/20/2023] [Revised: 03/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/18/2024] [Indexed: 03/25/2024]
Abstract
The effect of global climate change on plant-pollinator interaction is not limited to changes in phenology and richness within communities but also includes the spatial mismatch caused by the inconsistency of geographical distribution changes. Subsequently, the pollinator interaction network may be remodeled or even disrupted. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat niche of 15 Rhododendron species and their eight pollinator species as well as their overlapping versus geographical mismatch under the current and three future climate change scenarios in 2090s, using MaxEnt. Results showed that the suitable habitat of all Rhododendron species would decrease in 2090s. In particular, 10, 8, and 13 Rhododendron-pollinator assemblages would have a reduced spatial match region under the climate change scenarios, mainly due to the contraction of the suitable habitat of Rhododendron species. The results provide novel insights into the response of plant-pollinator interactions to global warming, useful to prioritize conservation actions of alpine plant ecosystems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kun-Ji Li
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Ecosecurity of Southwest China, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Biodiversity, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, Yunnan, China
| | - Xiao-Fei Liu
- Institute of international river and eco-security Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, Yunnan, China
| | - Liu Yang
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Ecosecurity of Southwest China, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Biodiversity, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, Yunnan, China
| | - Shi-Kang Shen
- Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Transboundary Ecosecurity of Southwest China, Yunnan Key Laboratory of Plant Reproductive Adaptation and Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Biodiversity, School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650504, Yunnan, China.
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Kolanowska M, Michalska E. The effect of global warming on the Australian endemic orchid Cryptostylis leptochila and its pollinator. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0280922. [PMID: 36716308 PMCID: PMC9886262 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280922] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2022] [Accepted: 01/11/2023] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Ecological stability together with the suitability of abiotic conditions are crucial for long-term survival of any organism and the maintenance of biodiversity and self-sustainable ecosystems relies on species interactions. By influencing resource availability plants affect the composition of plant communities and ultimately ecosystem functioning. Plant-animal interactions are very complex and include a variety of exploitative and mutualistic relationships. One of the most important mutualistic interactions is that between plants and their pollinators. Coevolution generates clustered links between plants and their pollen vectors, but the pollination and reproductive success of plants is reduced by increase in the specialization of plant-animal interactions. One of the most specialized types of pollination is sexual deception, which occurs almost exclusively in Orchidaceae. In this form of mimicry, male insects are attracted to orchid flowers by chemical compounds that resemble insect female sex pheromones and pollinate the flowers during attempted copulations. These interactions are often species-specific with each species of orchid attracting only males of one or very few closely related species of insects. For sexually deceptive orchids the presence of a particular pollen vector is crucial for reproductive success and any reduction in pollinator availability constitutes a threat to the orchid. Because global warming is rapidly becoming the greatest threat to all organisms by re-shaping the geographical ranges of plants, animals and fungi, this paper focuses on predicting the effect of global warming on Cryptostylis leptochila, a terrestrial endemic in eastern Australia that is pollinated exclusively via pseudo copulation with Lissopimpla excelsa. As a species with a single pollinator this orchid is a perfect model for studies on the effect of global warming on plants and their pollen vectors. According to our predictions, global warming will cause a significant loss of suitable niches for C. leptochila. The potential range of this orchid will be 36%-75% smaller than currently and as a result the Eastern Highlands will become unsuitable for C. leptochila. On the other hand, some new niches will become available for this species in Tasmania. Simultaneously, climate change will result in a substantial expansion of niches suitable for the pollinator (44-82%). Currently ca. 71% of the geographical range of the orchid is also suitable for L. excelsa, therefore, almost 30% of the areas occupied by C. leptochila already lack the pollen vector. The predicted availability of the pollen vector increased under three of the climate change scenarios analysed. The predicted habitat loss is a serious threat to this orchid even with the potential colonization of Tasmania by this plant. In the reduced range of C. leptochila the pollen vector will also be present assuring fruit set in populations of this orchid. The genetic pool of the populations in New South Wales and Queensland will probably be lost.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Kolanowska
- Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, University of Lodz, Poland
- * E-mail:
| | - Ewa Michalska
- Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, University of Lodz, Poland
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Reproductive Biology of Fritillaria aurea Schott (Liliaceae), a Rare Species Endemic to Turkey. DIVERSITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/d14121052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/04/2022]
Abstract
Fritillaria aurea, unlike other Fritillaria species, is a narrowly endemic species. It has a brown checkered speckled color on each tepal and also has regular yellow intense colors on the tepals. Its large bell-shaped appearance when the flower is open is one of its most striking ornamental features. However, F. aurea plant numbers are limited in their natural habitats, and their numbers are decreasing day by day; they are even confronted with the risk of extinction owing to the damage resulting from human activities. This detailed investigation of reproductive biology plays a vital role in determining the evolutionary success and survival of F. aurea, largely in determining the effectiveness of their reproductive performance. Our results indicate that the species exhibits a very low partial dichogamy and herkogamy structure, as well as self-incompatible pollination. The flowering period ranges from March to April. Average seed viability, average seed number, and seed germination were determined as 71%, 255, and 45%, respectively. The pollen viability, pollen grains, and stigma receptivity were found as 96%, 392.000, and 85%, respectively. The pollen/ovule ratio (P/O) and self-incompatibility index (SII) in the spontaneous cross-pollination were detected as 1537 and 0, respectively. Flowers of F. aurea were visited by several insect species, mostly honeybees (Apis mellifera); Bombus sp. and Vespa sp. also played a minor role in pollination. To sum up, these results not only lay a solid foundation for further reproductive biology investigations to more broadly reveal the mechanisms of F. aurea endangerment in the future but also provide a reliable theoretical basis for hybridization breeding of parents.
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Solís-Montero L, Vega-Polanco M, Vázquez-Sánchez M, Suárez-Mota ME. Ecological niche modeling of interactions in a buzz-pollinated invasive weed. Glob Ecol Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02279] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
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Predicting the potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo-an important medicinal orchid in the West Himalaya, under multiple climate change scenarios. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0269673. [PMID: 35714160 PMCID: PMC9205508 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0269673] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/18/2021] [Accepted: 05/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressures is the most critical driver in the Himalayan region for forest ecosystem vulnerability. Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D.Don) Soo is an important yet highly threatened medicinal orchid from the Himalayan region. Poor regenerative power and growing demand have resulted in the steep decline of its natural habitats populations. The present study aims to identify the habitat suitability of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalaya using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The community climate system model (CCSM ver. 4) based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs) was used to determine suitable future areas. Sixteen least correlated (< 0.8) bioclimatic, topographical and geomorphic variables were used to construct the species climatic niche. The dominant contributing variables were elevation (34.85%) followed by precipitation of the coldest quarter (23.04%), soil type (8.77%), land use land cover (8.26%), mean annual temperature (5.51%), and temperature seasonality (5.11%). Compared to the present distribution, habitat suitability under future projection, i.e., RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2050 and 2070), was found to shift to higher elevation towards the northwest direction, while lower altitudes will invariably be less suitable. Further, as compared to the current distribution, the climatic niche space of the species is expected to expand in between11.41–22.13% in the near future. High habitats suitability areas are mainly concentrated in the forest range like Dharchula and Munsyari range, Pindar valley, Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary, West of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve, and Uttarkashi forest division. The present study delineated the fundamental niche baseline map of D. hatagirea in the Western Himalayas and highlighted regions/areas where conservation and management strategies should be intensified in the next 50 years. In addition, as the species is commercially exploited illegally, the information gathered is essential for conservationists and planners who protect the species at the regional levels.
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'Fly to a Safer North': Distributional Shifts of the Orchid Ophrys insectifera L. Due to Climate Change. BIOLOGY 2022; 11:biology11040497. [PMID: 35453696 PMCID: PMC9025215 DOI: 10.3390/biology11040497] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/28/2022] [Revised: 03/15/2022] [Accepted: 03/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/10/2022]
Abstract
Numerous orchid species around the world have already been affected by the ongoing climate change, displaying phenological alterations and considerable changes to their distributions. The fly orchid (Ophrys insectifera L.) is a well-known and distinctive Ophrys species in Europe, with a broad distribution across the continent. This study explores the effects of climate change on the range of O. insectifera, using a species distribution models (SDMs) framework that encompasses different climatic models and scenarios for the near- and long-term future. The species' environmentally suitable area is projected to shift northwards (as expected) but downhill (contrary to usual expectations) in the future. In addition, an overall range contraction is predicted under all investigated combinations of climatic models and scenarios. While this is moderate overall, it includes some regions of severe loss and other areas with major gains. Specifically, O. insectifera is projected to experience major area loss in its southern reaches (the Balkans, Italy and Spain), while it will expand its northern limits to North Europe, with the UK, Scandinavia, and the Baltic countries exhibiting the largest gains.
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Rarity up in the mountain: Ecological niche modeling, phenology, and reproductive biology of the most commercialized Masdevallia species. J Nat Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jnc.2021.126120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su132413778] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Human-induced climate- and land-use change have been affecting biogeographical and biodiversity patterns for the past two centuries all over the globe, resulting in increased extinction and biotic homogenization rates. High mountain ecosystems are more sensitive to these changes, which have led to physiological and phenological shifts, as well as to ecosystem processes’ deformation. Glacial relicts, such as arctic-alpine taxa, are sensitive indicators of the effects of global warming and their rear-edge populations could include warm-adapted genotypes that might prove—conservation-wise—useful in an era of unprecedented climate regimes. Despite the ongoing thermophilization in European and Mediterranean summits, it still remains unknown how past and future climate-change might affect the distributional patterns of the glacial relict, arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece, their European southernmost distributional limit. Using species distribution models, we investigated the impacts of past and future climate changes on the arctic-alpine taxa occurring in Greece and identified the areas comprising arctic-alpine biodiversity hotspots in Greece. Most of these species will be faced with severe range reductions in the near future, despite their innate resilience to a multitude of threats, while the species richness hotspots will experience both altitudinal and latitudinal shifts. Being long-lived perennials means that there might be an extinction-debt present in these taxa, and a prolonged stability phase could be masking the deleterious effects of climate change on them. Several ex situ conservation measures (e.g., seed collection, population augmentation) should be taken to preserve the southernmost populations of these rare arctic-alpine taxa and a better understanding of their population genetics is urgently needed.
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Kolanowska M, Michalska E, Konowalik K. The impact of global warming on the niches and pollinator availability of sexually deceptive orchid with a single pollen vector. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2021; 795:148850. [PMID: 34246141 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148850] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2021] [Revised: 05/21/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2021] [Indexed: 05/12/2023]
Abstract
Orchidaceae are among the most endangered plants in the world. Considering the sensitive nature of pollinator-plant relationship the most vulnerable are species which are dependent on a single pollen vector. In this paper the future distribution of suitable niches of Australian sexually deceptive orchid Leporella fimbriata and its pollinator (Myrmecia urens) was estimated using three machine learning algorithms. While the potential range of fringed hare orchid depending on modelling method will be larger or slightly reduced than currently observed, the ant will face significant loss of suitable niches. As a result of global warming the overlap of orchid and its only pollen vector will most probably decrease. The unavailability of pollen vector will lead to decreased reproductive success and as a result it will be a great threat for L. fimbriata existence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Kolanowska
- University of Lodz, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Lodz, Poland; Department of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute AS CR, Bělidla 4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic.
| | - Ewa Michalska
- University of Lodz, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Lodz, Poland
| | - Kamil Konowalik
- Wrocław University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Institute of Environmental Biology, Department of Plant Biology, Kożuchowska 5b, 51-631 Wroclaw, Poland
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Temperature and Prey Species Richness Drive the Broad-Scale Distribution of a Generalist Predator. DIVERSITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/d13040169] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/31/2022]
Abstract
The ongoing climate change and the unprecedented rate of biodiversity loss render the need to accurately project future species distributional patterns more critical than ever. Mounting evidence suggests that not only abiotic factors, but also biotic interactions drive broad-scale distributional patterns. Here, we explored the effect of predator-prey interaction on the predator distribution, using as target species the widespread and generalist grass snake (Natrix natrix). We used ensemble Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) to build a model only with abiotic variables (abiotic model) and a biotic one including prey species richness. Then we projected the future grass snake distribution using a modest emission scenario assuming an unhindered and no dispersal scenario. The two models performed equally well, with temperature and prey species richness emerging as the top drivers of species distribution in the abiotic and biotic models, respectively. In the future, a severe range contraction is anticipated in the case of no dispersal, a likely possibility as reptiles are poor dispersers. If the species can disperse freely, an improbable scenario due to habitat loss and fragmentation, it will lose part of its contemporary distribution, but it will expand northwards.
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Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora. BIOLOGY 2021; 10:biology10030195. [PMID: 33806693 PMCID: PMC7999807 DOI: 10.3390/biology10030195] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
Simple Summary This study assesses for the first time all the vascular endemic plant taxa of Greece, according to their decline and rarity. Phylogenetic analysis and its spatial overview highlight areas for conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen of them need to be prioritized, due to their evolutionary distinctiveness. This assessment could act as the baseline and supporting tool for conservation actions, decision- and policy-making for biodiversity, while highlighting the need for a new Red Data Book for the Greek flora. Abstract Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.
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An Orchid in Retrograde: Climate-Driven Range Shift Patterns of Ophrys helenae in Greece. PLANTS 2021; 10:plants10030470. [PMID: 33801443 PMCID: PMC8000551 DOI: 10.3390/plants10030470] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2021] [Accepted: 02/25/2021] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Climate change is regarded as one of the most important threats to plants. Already species around the globe are showing considerable latitudinal and altitudinal shifts. Helen's bee orchid (Ophrys helenae), a Balkan endemic with a distribution center in northwestern Greece, is reported to be expanding east and southwards. Since this southeastern movement goes against the usual expectations, we investigated via Species Distribution Modelling, whether this pattern is consistent with projections based on the species' response to climate change. We predicted the species' future distribution based on three different climate models in two climate scenarios. We also explored the species' potential distribution during the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum. O. helenae is projected to shift mainly southeast and experience considerable area changes. The species is expected to become extinct in the core of its current distribution, but to establish a strong presence in the mid- and high-altitude areas of the Central Peloponnese, a region that could have provided shelter in previous climatic extremes.
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Suitability of Habitats in Nepal for Dactylorhiza hatagirea Now and under Predicted Future Changes in Climate. PLANTS 2021; 10:plants10030467. [PMID: 33801220 PMCID: PMC8000360 DOI: 10.3390/plants10030467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/21/2021] [Revised: 02/22/2021] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 01/13/2023]
Abstract
Dactylorhiza hatagirea is a terrestrial orchid listed in Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and classified as threatened by International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). It is endemic to the Hindu-Kush Himalayan region, distributed from Pakistan to China. The main threat to its existence is climate change and the associated change in the distribution of its suitable habitats to higher altitudes due to increasing temperature. It is therefore necessary to determine the habitats that are suitable for its survival and their expected distribution after the predicted changes in climate. To do this, we use Maxent modelling of the data for its 208 locations. We predict its distribution in 2050 and 2070 using four climate change models and two greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. This revealed severe losses of suitable habitat in Nepal, in which, under the worst scenario, there will be a 71–81% reduction the number of suitable locations for D. hatagirea by 2050 and 95–98% by 2070. Under the most favorable scenario, this reduction will be 65–85% by 2070. The intermediate greenhouse gas concentration trajectory surprisingly would result in a greater reduction by 2070 than the worst-case scenario. Our results provide important guidelines that local authorities interested in conserving this species could use to select areas that need to be protected now and in the future.
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Jakubska-Busse A, Tsiftsis S, Śliwiński M, Křenová Z, Djordjević V, Steiu C, Kolanowska M, Efimov P, Hennigs S, Lustyk P, Kreutz K(C. How to Protect Natural Habitats of Rare Terrestrial Orchids Effectively: A Comparative Case Study of Cypripedium calceolus in Different Geographical Regions of Europe. PLANTS 2021; 10:plants10020404. [PMID: 33672509 PMCID: PMC7923770 DOI: 10.3390/plants10020404] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2021] [Revised: 02/11/2021] [Accepted: 02/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
In this article we present and discuss the main factors that threaten natural populations of Cypripedium calceolus (lady’s slipper orchid) in Europe, and we propose conservation strategies and directions for protective actions of its population on a regional scale. European C. calceolus populations have decreased significantly in the last two decades, in both number and size. A key result of the present study is an evaluation of the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU) countries. Northern and/or mountainous countries present higher percentages of potentially suitable areas within the Natura 2000 network. Finland and the United Kingdom are the exceptions to this rule. It is predicted that, due to global warming, the coverage of niches suitable for C. calceolus will decrease in countries in which now-healthy colonies exist. However, as plant species can occur in micro-sites with suitable environmental conditions (e.g., microclimate, vegetation, soil factors) which cannot be predicted as suitable at coarser spatial resolutions, conservation efforts should be focused on management of local healthy populations. For the effective protection of C. calceolus in Natura 2000 sites, the participation of experts in botany, including orchid biology, is necessary at several stages.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Jakubska-Busse
- Department of Botany, Institute of Environmental Biology, University of Wrocław, Kanonia Street 6/8, 50-328 Wrocław, Poland
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +48 (71)-375-4081; Fax: +48 (71) 325-4118
| | - Spyros Tsiftsis
- Department of Forest and Natural Environment Sciences, International Hellenic University, GR-66132 Drama, Greece;
| | - Michał Śliwiński
- Lower Silesian Ecological Club, Piłsudskiego Street 74, PL-50-020 Wrocław, Poland;
| | - Zdenka Křenová
- Department of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute AS CR, Bělidla 4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic; (Z.K); (M.K.)
- Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Benátská 2, CZ-12900 Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Vladan Djordjević
- Institute of Botany and Botanical Garden, Faculty of Biology, University of Belgrade, Takovska 43, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia;
| | - Corina Steiu
- Association P.P.V.N.C. Excelsior, Timisoara branch, 310465 Timisoara, Romania;
| | - Marta Kolanowska
- Department of Biodiversity Research, Global Change Research Institute AS CR, Bělidla 4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic; (Z.K); (M.K.)
- Department of Geobotany and Plant Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Environmental Protection, University of Łódź, Banacha 12/16, 90-237 Łódź, Poland
| | - Petr Efimov
- Komarov Botanical Institute of the Russia Academy of Sciences, 197376 Saint-Petersburg, Russia;
| | | | - Pavel Lustyk
- Nature Conservation Agency of the Czech Republic, Kaplanova 1931/1, CZ-14800 Prague, Czech Republic;
| | - Karel (C.A.J.) Kreutz
- Department of Botany, Naturalis Biodiversity Center, 2300 RA Leiden, The Netherlands;
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Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of Four Closely Related Orchis (Orchidaceae) Species. DIVERSITY 2020. [DOI: 10.3390/d12080312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Long-term monitoring programs and population demographic models have shown that the population dynamics of orchids are to a large extent dependent on prevailing weather conditions, suggesting that the changes in climatic conditions can have far reaching effects on the population dynamics and hence the distribution of orchids. Although a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the distribution of plants has become increasingly important during the final years, only a few studies have investigated the effects of changing temperature and precipitation on the distribution of orchids. In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on the distribution of four terrestrial orchid species (Orchis anthropophora, Orchis militaris, Orchis purpurea and Orchis simia). Using bioclimatic data for current and future climate scenarios, habitat suitability, range shifts and the impact of different abiotic factors on the range of each species were modelled using Maxent. The results revealed an increase in suitable habitat area for O. anthropophora, O. purpurea and O. simia under each RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario, while a decrease was observed for O. militaris. Furthermore, all four of the orchids showed a shift to higher latitudes under the three RCPs leading to a significant range extension under mild climate change. Under severe climate change, a significant decline in the distribution area at the warm edge of their distributions was observed. Overall, these results show that mild climate change may be beneficial for the studied orchid species and lead to range expansion. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as all species also showed pronounced declines at lower latitudes when temperature increases were larger than 4 °C.
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Spatial Phylogenetics, Biogeographical Patterns and Conservation Implications of the Endemic Flora of Crete (Aegean, Greece) under Climate Change Scenarios. BIOLOGY 2020; 9:biology9080199. [PMID: 32751787 PMCID: PMC7463760 DOI: 10.3390/biology9080199] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/11/2020] [Revised: 07/27/2020] [Accepted: 07/29/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Human-induced biodiversity loss has been accelerating since the industrial revolution. The climate change impacts will severely alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns at all scales, leading to biotic homogenization. Due to underfunding, a climate smart, conservation-prioritization scheme is needed to optimize species protection. Spatial phylogenetics enable the identification of endemism centers and provide valuable insights regarding the eco-evolutionary and conservation value, as well as the biogeographical origin of a given area. Many studies exist regarding the conservation prioritization of mainland areas, yet none has assessed how climate change might alter the biodiversity and biogeographical patterns of an island biodiversity hotspot. Thus, we conducted a phylogenetically informed, conservation prioritization study dealing with the effects of climate change on Crete’s plant diversity and biogeographical patterns. Using several macroecological analyses, we identified the current and future endemism centers and assessed the impact of climate change on the biogeographical patterns in Crete. The highlands of Cretan mountains have served as both diversity cradles and museums, due to their stable climate and high topographical heterogeneity, providing important ecosystem services. Historical processes seem to have driven diversification and endemic species distribution in Crete. Due to the changing climate and the subsequent biotic homogenization, Crete’s unique bioregionalization, which strongly reminiscent the spatial configuration of the Pliocene/Pleistocene Cretan paleo-islands, will drastically change. The emergence of the ‘Anthropocene’ era calls for the prioritization of biodiversity-rich areas, serving as mixed-endemism centers, with high overlaps among protected areas and climatic refugia.
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