Landscape predictors of human-leopard conflicts within multi-use areas of the Himalayan region

Identifying risk zones and landscape features that affect common leopard depredation

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) is a pressing issue worldwide but varies by species over time and place. One of the most prevalent forms of HWC in the mid-hills of Nepal is human-common-leopard conflict (HLC). Leopard attacks, especially in forested areas, can severely impact villagers and their livestock. Information on HLC in the Gorkha district was scarce, thus making it an ideal location to identify high-risk zones and landscape variables associated with such events. Registered cases were collected and reviewed from the Division Forest Office (DFO) during 2019-2021. Claims from DFO records were confirmed with herders and villagers via eight focus group discussions. To enhance modeling success, researchers identified a total of 163 leopard attack locations on livestock, ensuring a minimum distance of at least 100 meters between locations. Using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and considering 13 environmental variables, we mapped common leopard attack risk zones. True Skill Statistics (TSS) and area under receiver-operator curve (AUC) were used to evaluate and validate the Output. Furthermore, 10 replications, 1,000 maximum iterations, and 1000 background points were employed during modeling. The average AUC value for the model, which was 0.726 ± 0.021, revealed good accuracy. The model performed well, as indicated by a TSS value of 0.61 ± 0.03. Of the total research area (27.92 km2), about 74% was designated as a low-risk area, 19% as a medium-risk area, and 7% as a high-risk area. Of the 13 environmental variables, distance to water (25.2%) was the most significant predictor of risk, followed by distance to road (16.2%) and elevation (10.7%). According to response curves, the risk of common leopard is highest in the areas between 1.5 to 2 km distances from the water sources, followed by the closest distance from a road and an elevation of 700 to 800 m. Results suggest that managers and local governments should employ intervention strategies immediately to safeguard rural livelihoods in high-risk areas. Improvements include better design of livestock corrals, insurance, and total compensation of livestock losses. Settlements near roads and water sources should improve the design and construction of pens and cages to prevent livestock loss. More studies on the characteristics of victims are suggested to enhance understanding of common leopard attacks, in addition to landscape variables. Such information can be helpful in formulating the best management practices.

The human-wildlife conflict in Musk Deer National Park, Neelum Gureze Valley, Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan

Abstract Growing human population is a solemn risk to biodiversity at a global level. Massive anthropogenic pressure and invasion in the natural habitats initiated the human-wildlife conflict in rural areas. Present study aimed to assess human-wildlife conflict in Musk Deer National Park (MDNP) from 2013 to 2018. Results revealed an estimated 241784 nomadic and 5589 residential livestock heads grazed in different areas of MDNP during the summer season. A total of 126 heads were depredated by carnivores during the study period. Majority (n=39) of livestock heads were killed in May (n=29). Livestock depredation resulted in economic losses worth 3.115 million PKRs (25744 US$) to the herder community while farmers received 1.629 million PKRs (13466 US$) losses due to crop raiding. Most (64%) of the respondents believed human-wildlife conflict heightened due to scarcity of food or prey in the natural habitats of carnivores. Majority (92%) of the respondents did not like the presence of predators in MDNP. Loss compensation schemes could turn this negative attitude into the positive one and increase tolerance about the presence of carnivores in their vicinity. This study provides an insight into the human-wildlife conflict in MDNP and paves a way for understanding the conflict and conservation of carnivore species in the study area.

Landscape predictors influencing livestock depredation by leopards in and around Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal

Livestock depredation by leopards is a pervasive issue across many Asian and African range countries, particularly in and around protected areas. Developing effective conflict mitigation strategies requires understanding the landscape features influencing livestock depredation. In this study, we investigated predictors associated with livestock depredation by leopards using 274 cases of leopard attacks on livestock that occurred between 2017 and 2020 in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. We also examined how livestock predation by leopards varied depending on the species, season, and time. A generalized linear model with binary logistic regression was used to test the statistical significance of variables associated with the presence and absence of conflict sites. The results revealed that the area of forest, agricultural land, length of rivers, slope, proximity to settlements and protected areas, and elevation significantly predicted the probability of leopard attacks on livestock. We also observed a significant increase in the incidence of leopard predation on livestock with decreasing slopes and rising elevations. The areas near human settlements and the protected areas faced a higher risk of leopard predation. The incidence of leopard predation on livestock varied significantly depending on the livestock species, season, and time. Goats were the most highly predated livestock, followed by sheep, cow/ox, and buffalo. A total of 289.11 km2 (or around 5% of the research area) was deemed to be at high risk for leopard predation on livestock. This study's comprehensive understanding of human-leopard conflicts provides valuable insights for planning and implementing measures to reduce damage caused by leopard populations throughout their range.

Understanding the distribution and fine-scale habitat selection of mesocarnivores along a habitat quality gradient in western Himalaya

Background: Human activities have resulted in a rapid increase of modified habitats in proximity to wildlife habitats in the Himalaya. However, it is crucial to understand the extent to which human habitat modification affects wildlife. Mesocarnivores generally possess broader niches than large carnivores and adapt quickly to human activities. Here, we use a case study in the western Himalaya to test the hypothesis that human disturbance influenced mesocarnivore habitat use. Methods: We used camera trapping and mitochondrial DNA-based species identification from faecal samples to obtain mesocarnivore detections. We then compared the responses of mesocarnivores between an anthropogenic site and a less disturbed park along a contiguous gradient in habitat quality. The non-linear pattern in species-specific habitat selection and factors responsible for space usage around villages was captured using hierarchical generalized additive modelling (HGAM) and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) ordination. Results: Wildlife occurrences along the gradient varied by species. Leopard cat and red fox were the only terrestrial mesocarnivores that occurred in both anthropogenic site and park. We found a shift in habitat selection from less disturbed habitat in the park to disturbed habitat in anthropogenic site for the species detected in both the habitat types. For instance, red fox showed habitat selection towards high terrain ruggedness (0.5 to 0.7 TRI) and low NDVI (-0.05 to 0.2) in the park but no such specific selection in anthropogenic site. Further, leopard cat showed habitat selection towards moderate slope (20°) and medium NDVI (0.5) in park but no prominent habitat selections in anthropogenic site. The results revealed their constrained behaviour which was further supported by the intensive site usage close to houses, agricultural fields and human trails in villages. Conclusions: Our results indicate shifts in habitat selection and intensive site usage by mesocarnivores in the human-modified habitat. In future, this suggests the possibility of conflict and disease spread affecting both the people and wildlife. Therefore, this study highlights the requisite to test the wildlife responses to rapidly growing human expansions in modified habitats to understand the extent of impact. The management strategies need to have an integrated focus for further expansions of modified habitat and garbage disposal strategies, especially in the human-wildlife interface area.

Assessing Carnivore Occurrence and Community Attitudes Towards Wildlife in a Multi-Use Arid Landscape Corridor

Small population sizes, low densities, and large area requirements make large carnivores particularly sensitive to habitat degradation and land-use change. In fragmented landscapes, many protected areas cannot accommodate viable wildlife populations in themselves, which brings the surrounding human-dominated matrix that may extend wildlife habitats or serve as corridors into focus. Such areas are typically excluded from the conservation portfolio and are subject to rapid land -use change in many areas. This study investigates the occurrence of tigers, sloth bears, leopards and striped hyenas and assesses community use of natural resources and attitudes towards wildlife in a 3,384 km2 portion of semi-arid multiple-use landscape in Western India that also serves as an important wildlife corridor. This area abuts Ranthambore Tiger Reserve, a preeminent protected area in Western India. Sign surveys spanning 1,039.22 km of trails were conducted in 94, 36 km2 grids spanning agricultural land, forests and other land use types to collate information on wildlife occurrence and associated environmental and human factors. Analysis using occupancy models revealed that tiger and sloth bear occurrence probabilities (0.093 ± 0.05), and (0.13 ± 0.02) were considerably lower than those for leopards (0.72 ± 0.22) and striped hyenas (0.91 ± 0.08). Lack of sufficient cover and limited food availability renders these multiple-use habitats poorly suited for tigers and sloth bears, while leopards and hyenas are able to adapt better to multi-use areas. Concurrently, 66 villages were surveyed across the study landscape, where data on broad socio-economic attributes of communities and their attitudes towards wildlife were assessed through questionnaire surveys. More respondents expressed negative attitudes than positive attitudes which vary as a function of education levels, occupation and land holding sizes. Ongoing landscape transformation through mining, agricultural expansion, infrastructure development, and negative attitudes towards wildlife conservation among people living in the agricultural matrix threatens the long-term functionality of these corridors. Therefore, immediate measures are needed to develop and implement corridor conservation strategies and plans, with a focus on land use planning and human-wildlife conflict mitigation. In the absence of decisive and timely action, wildlife populations may increasingly get relegated to fragmented patches, jeopardising their persistence.

Potential risk zone for anthropogenic mortality of carnivores in Gandaki Province, Nepal

Anthropogenic pressures in human-dominated landscapes often contribute to wildlife mortality. Carnivores are especially vulnerable to human-induced mortality due to the perceived threat to livestock and humans. Despite having widespread conservation implications, carnivore mortality data have been largely underutilized within Nepal. This study utilized Maxent to identify high-risk areas and explore the contribution of habitat attributes associated with carnivore mortality using the casualty database within the Gandaki province of central Nepal. We categorized the risk to carnivore species in three taxonomic groups, Felid, Viverridae, and Herpestidae, and identified a 3704-km2 area within the province at high risk for carnivore casualty. The middle mountains were the riskiest physiographic zone, and the Annapurna Conservation Area represented the largest risk zone among the four protected areas. Agricultural land was the most problematic area in terms of carnivore casualty. The human population was positively associated with high-risk areas and the number of casualties, whereas protected area cover had a negative association. This study identified that the common leopard was at the highest risk of mortality and therefore would benefit from the implementation of an action plan and species-specific conservation strategies, especially within identified high-risk zones. An expansion of protected areas in the middle mountain region would serve to greatly reduce carnivore casualty. Species distribution modeling can be further used with national-level spatial and temporal mortality data to identify the most prominent casualty times and pinpoint potential casualty locations throughout the country.

Characterization and management of human-wildlife conflicts in mid-hills outside protected areas of Gandaki province, Nepal

With the intent to better management human wildlife conflict (HWC) and wildlife conservation in mid-hills outside protected areas of Gandaki province, Nepal, we analyzed the patterns and drivers of HWC. Using data collected from literature, government records and questionnaire survey, we investigated temporal, seasonal and spatial distribution of human casualties caused by wildlife attacks. We also appraised the perception of local people towards wildlife conservation. We have recorded 77 cases (69 human injuries and 8 mortalities) during the period of nine year between 2011 and 2019. The number of wildlife attacks increased over this period. Wildlife attacks were more frequent in winter with 50% (42) of attacks occurred between September and December. Common leopard (Panthera pardus) and Himalayan black bear (Ursus thibetanus laniger) were the major species involved in these conflicts. Common leopard was the most feared species that causes highest number of human mortalities (87%, n = 67); the most severe type of HWC outcome. Forty-eight percent (n = 37) attacks were reported at human settlement areas followed by 27% attacks in agriculture land (n = 21) and 24% (n = 19) in forest. Generalized linear model analysis on spatial variables showed that the probability of human attacks increases with decreasing elevation (β = -0.0021, Z = -1.762, p = 0.078) and distance from the forest (β = -0.608, Z = -0.789, p = 0.429). We recommend to decrease habitat degradation / fragmentation, carry out habitat management program within forest to increase prey availability to decrease the wildlife invasion into human settlement area, and decrease dependency of people on forest resources by providing alternative livelihood opportunities. Simplified relief fund distribution mechanism at local level also helps alleviate the impact of HWC. The knowledge obtained by this study and management measures are important for better human-wildlife co-existence.

Tracking forest loss and fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) range in Nepal

Forest cover is the primary determinant of elephant distribution, thus, understanding forest loss and fragmentation is crucial for elephant conservation. We assessed deforestation and patterns of forest fragmentation between 1930 and 2020 in Chure Terai Madhesh Lanscape (CTML) which covers the entire elephant range in Nepal. Forest cover maps and fragmentation matrices were generated using multi-source data (Topographic maps and Landsat satellite images of 1930, 1975, 2000, and 2020) and spatiotemporal change was quantified. At present, 19,069 km2 forest cover in CTML is available as the elephant habitat in Nepal. Overall, 21.5% of elephant habitat was lost between 1930 and 2020, with a larger (12.3%) forest cover loss between 1930 and 1975. Area of the large forests (Core 3) has decreased by 43.08% whereas smaller patches (Core 2, Core 1, edge and patch forests) has increased multifold between 1930 and 2020. The continued habitat loss and fragmentation probably fragmented elephant populations during the last century and made them insular with long-term ramifications for elephant conservation and human-elephant conflict. Given the substantial loss in forest cover and high levels of fragmentation, improving the resilience of elephant populations in Nepal would urgently require habitat and corridor restoration to enable the movement of elephants.

Movement behavior of a solitary large carnivore within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts in India

With a rise in human induced changes to natural habitats, large predators are forced to share space and resources with people to coexist within multiple-use landscapes. Within such shared landscapes, co-occurrence of humans and predators often leads to human-carnivore conflicts and pose a substantial challenge for biodiversity conservation. To better elucidate large carnivore space use within a hotspot of human-wildlife conflicts, we used GPS data for leopards (N = 6) to identify behavioral states and document spatial patterns of resource selection in response to season and human activity periods within a fragmented landscape of North Bengal, eastern India. We identified two major behavioral states (i.e. resting and travelling). From the resource selection models, we found leopards selected habitats with dense to moderate vegetation cover and proximity to water while resting and travelling within the landscape. During the dry season, when risk of human-leopard conflicts is highest, leopards selected tea plantations, forest patches but avoided protected areas. These results suggest a potential for increase in human-carnivore conflicts and a strategy to conserve large predators within multiple-use landscapes of South Asia.

Effects of Human Disturbance on Terrestrial Apex Predators

The effects of human disturbance spread over virtually all ecosystems and ecological communities on Earth. In this review, we focus on the effects of human disturbance on terrestrial apex predators. We summarize their ecological role in nature and how they respond to different sources of human disturbance. Apex predators control their prey and smaller predators numerically and via behavioral changes to avoid predation risk, which in turn can affect lower trophic levels. Crucially, reducing population numbers and triggering behavioral responses are also the effects that human disturbance causes to apex predators, which may in turn influence their ecological role. Some populations continue to be at the brink of extinction, but others are partially recovering former ranges, via natural recolonization and through reintroductions. Carnivore recovery is both good news for conservation and a challenge for management, particularly when recovery occurs in human-dominated landscapes. Therefore, we conclude by discussing several management considerations that, adapted to local contexts, may favor the recovery of apex predator populations and their ecological functions in nature.