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Vinodhkumar B, Ullah S, Kumar TVL, Al-Ghamdi SG. Amplification of temperature extremes in Arabian Peninsula under warmer worlds. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16604. [PMID: 39025891 PMCID: PMC11258267 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67514-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2024] [Accepted: 07/11/2024] [Indexed: 07/20/2024] Open
Abstract
The Paris Agreement and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlighted the potential risks of climate change across different global warming levels (GWLs). The increasing occurrence of extreme high-temperature events is linked to a warmer climate that is particularly prevalent in the Arabian Peninsula (AP). This study investigates future changes in temperatures and related extremes over AP, under four GWLs, such as 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, 3.0 °C, and 4.0 °C, with three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The study uses high-resolution datasets of 27 models from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6). The results showed that the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 individual models and their multi-model means reasonably captured the extreme temperature events. The summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.11-0.67 °C and 0.09-0.70 °C per decade under the selected SSPs. Likewise, the projected temperature extremes exhibit significant warming with varying degrees across the GWLs under the selected SSPs. The warm temperature extremes are projected to increase, while the cold extremes are projected to decrease under all GWLs and the selected SSPs. Overall, the findings provide a comprehensive assessment of temperature changes over AP in response to global warming, which can be helpful in the development of climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Buri Vinodhkumar
- Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, Environmental Science and Engineering Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
- KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
- Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, 769008, India
| | - Safi Ullah
- Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, Environmental Science and Engineering Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
- KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
| | - T V Lakshmi Kumar
- School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, 110067, India
| | - Sami G Al-Ghamdi
- Biological and Environmental Science and Engineering Division, Environmental Science and Engineering Program, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
- KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), 23955-6900, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
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Cheng L, Gu K, Zhao L, Wang H, Ji JS, Liu Z, Huang J, Chen Y, Gao X, Xu Y, Wang C, Luo Y, Cai W, Gong P, Liang W, Huang C. Projecting future labor losses due to heat stress in China under climate change scenarios. Sci Bull (Beijing) 2023; 68:2827-2837. [PMID: 37858411 PMCID: PMC10694465 DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2023.09.044] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2022] [Revised: 07/10/2023] [Accepted: 07/11/2023] [Indexed: 10/21/2023]
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase occupational heat stress, which will lead to diminished work performance and labor losses worldwide. However, sub-regional analyses remain insufficient, especially for countries with a heterogeneous spatial distribution of working populations, industries and climates. Here, we projected heat-induced labor losses in China, by considering local climate simulations, working population characteristics and developing an exposure-response function suitable for Chinese workers. We showed that the annual heat-induced work hours lost (WHL), compared to the baseline of 21.3 billion hours, will increase by 121.1% (111.2%-131.1%), 10.8% (8.3%-15.3%), and -17.8% (-15.3%--20.3%) by the end of the century under RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)8.5, RCP4.5, and RCP2.6, respectively. We observed an approximately linear upward trend of WHL under RCP8.5, despite the decrease in future working population. Notably, WHL will be most prominent in the southern, eastern and central regions, with Guangdong and Henan accounting for a quarter of national total losses; this is largely due to their higher temperature exposure, larger population size, and higher shares of vulnerable population in total employment. In addition, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would yield substantial gains. Compared to RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, all provinces can avoid an average of 11.8%, 33.7%, and 53.9% of annual WHL if the 1.5 °C target is achieved, which is equivalent to avoiding 0.1%, 0.6%, and 1.4% of annual GDP losses in China, respectively. This study revealed climate change will exacerbate future labor losses, and adverse impacts can be minimized by adopting stringent mitigation policies coupled with effective adaptation measures. Policymakers in each province should tailor occupation health protection measures to their circumstances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liangliang Cheng
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China; Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Kuiying Gu
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Liang Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Huibin Wang
- School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - John S Ji
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Zhao Liu
- School of Linkong Economics and Management, Beijing Institute of Economics and Management, Beijing 100102, China
| | - Jianbin Huang
- Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research Station, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
| | - Yidan Chen
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Xuejie Gao
- College of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100084, China; Climate Change Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
| | - Ying Xu
- National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
| | - Can Wang
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Yong Luo
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Wenjia Cai
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Peng Gong
- Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Department of Earth Sciences and Department of Geography, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong 999077, China
| | - Wannian Liang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
| | - Cunrui Huang
- Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; Institute of Healthy China, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
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3
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De Sario M, de'Donato FK, Bonafede M, Marinaccio A, Levi M, Ariani F, Morabito M, Michelozzi P. Occupational heat stress, heat-related effects and the related social and economic loss: a scoping literature review. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1173553. [PMID: 37601227 PMCID: PMC10434255 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1173553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 06/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/22/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction While there is consistent evidence on the effects of heat on workers' health and safety, the evidence on the resulting social and economic impacts is still limited. A scoping literature review was carried out to update the knowledge about social and economic impacts related to workplace heat exposure. Methods The literature search was conducted in two bibliographic databases (Web of Science and PubMed), to select publications from 2010 to April 2022. Results A total of 89 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis (32 field studies, 8 studies estimating healthcare-related costs, and 49 economic studies). Overall, consistent evidence of the socioeconomic impacts of heat exposure in the workplace emerges. Actual productivity losses at the global level are nearly 10% and are expected to increase up to 30-40% under the worst climate change scenario by the end of the century. Vulnerable regions are mainly low-latitude and low- and middle-income countries with a greater proportion of outdoor workers but include also areas from developed countries such as southern Europe. The most affected sectors are agriculture and construction. There is limited evidence regarding the role of cooling measures and changes in the work/rest schedule in mitigating heat-related productivity loss. Conclusion The available evidence highlights the need for strengthening prevention efforts to enhance workers' awareness and resilience toward occupational heat exposure, particularly in low- and middle-income countries but also in some areas of developed countries where an increase in frequency and intensity of heat waves is expected under future climate change scenarios.
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Affiliation(s)
- Manuela De Sario
- Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Michela Bonafede
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers' Compensation Authority (INAIL), Rome, Italy
| | - Alessandro Marinaccio
- Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Epidemiology and Hygiene Department, Italian Workers' Compensation Authority (INAIL), Rome, Italy
| | - Miriam Levi
- Epidemiology Unit, Department of Prevention, Central Tuscany Local Health Authority, Florence, Italy
| | - Filippo Ariani
- Regional Centre for the Analysis of Data on Occupational and Work-Related Injuries and Diseases, Central Tuscany Local Health Authority, Florence, Italy
| | - Marco Morabito
- Institute of Bioeconomy, National Research Council (IBE-CNR), Florence, Italy
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
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Jibhakate SM, Gehlot LK, Timbadiya PV, Patel PL. Spatiotemporal variability of extreme temperature indices and their implications over the heterogeneous river basin, India. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 195:664. [PMID: 37171502 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-11196-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 04/01/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023]
Abstract
The current study on spatiotemporal variability of temperature presents a holistic approach for quantifying the joint space-time variability of extreme temperature indices over the physio-climatically heterogeneous Tapi River basin (TRB) using two unsupervised machine learning algorithms, i.e., principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. The long-term variability in extreme temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), was evaluated for 1951-2016. The magnitude and statistical significance of the temporal trend in extreme temperature indices were estimated using non-parametric Sen's slope estimator and modified Mann Kendall (MMK) tests, respectively. The multivariate assessment of temporal trends using PCA resulted in four principal components (PCs) encapsulating more than 90% variability. The cluster analysis of corresponding PCs resulted in two spatial clusters exhibiting homogeneous spatiotemporal variability. Cluster 1 is characterized by significantly increasing hottest, very hot, and extremely hot days with rising average maximum temperature and intraday temperature variability. On the other hand, cluster 2 showed significantly rising coldest nights, mean minimum, mean temperature, and Tx37 with significantly decreasing intraday and interannual temperature variability, very cold, and extremely cold nights with reducing cold spell durations. The summertime heat stress computation revealed that the Purna sub-catchment of the Tapi basin is more vulnerable to various health issues and decreased work performance (> 10%) for more than 45 days per year. The current study dealing with the associated effects of rising temperature variability on crop yield, human health, and work performance would help policymakers formulate better planning and management strategies to safeguard society and the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shubham M Jibhakate
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
| | - Lalit Kumar Gehlot
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
| | - P V Timbadiya
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India.
| | - P L Patel
- Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology Surat, Surat, Gujarat, 395007, India
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Huang J, Shen S, Zhao M, Cheng C. Assessment of Summer Regional Outdoor Heat Stress and Regional Comfort in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration Over the Last 40 Years. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000725. [PMID: 36594002 PMCID: PMC9797114 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000725] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Revised: 11/24/2022] [Accepted: 12/01/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
Outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) is critical for public health, labor productivity, and human life. Growing extreme heat events caused by climate change have a serious impact on OTCs, especially in urban areas. Quantitatively characterizing and evaluating the spatiotemporal changes in OTCs are essential, and more applications are needed in urban agglomerations. Therefore, taking the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as the study area, this study aimed to quantitatively assess the summer regional OTC from 1981 to 2020. First, the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) was used as the indicator of daily thermal stress, and then a Composite Thermal Comfort Score was proposed to evaluate the long-term, summertime, regional OTC considering the extent, duration, and intensity of daytime and nighttime thermal stress. The results showed that (a) the increase in UTCI (0.32°C/10a at daytime and 0.21°C/10a at nighttime) and heat stress frequency (0.88 at daytime and 0.39 d/10a at nighttime) were manifested over BTH, indicating a worse OTC. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity was also demonstrated. (b) The general OTC showed a decreasing north-south gradient pattern. At daytime, the northern mountainous zone presented the best OTC, the southern plain zone, especially Hengshui, Langfang, and Cangzhou, showed the worst. At nighttime, the mountain-plain transition zone showed the best OTC, the northern mountainous zone showed the worst since more cold stress occurred. Our findings will be useful in informing climate change adaptation strategies to ensure urban resilience as extreme heat increases in the context of climate change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Junwang Huang
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural DisasterBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- Center for Geodata and AnalysisFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Shi Shen
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural DisasterBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- Center for Geodata and AnalysisFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Min Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- Center for Geodata and AnalysisFaculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
| | - Changxiu Cheng
- Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural DisasterBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource EcologyBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina
- National Tibetan Plateau Data CenterBeijingChina
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Hot weather hazard analysis over India. Sci Rep 2022; 12:19768. [PMID: 36396755 PMCID: PMC9671900 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-24065-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2022] [Accepted: 11/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Heat waves are often termed as the silent killer and have become even more important as recent studies suggest that the heat wave have become second most devastating extreme weather events in terms of human deaths and losses. It is also been largely realised by scientific community that it is not just the high temperatures which are responsible for the gruesome effect of heat waves but several other meteorological parameters play a vital role in aggravating the impact and causing much more damages. In view of the above the attention of scientific community, weather forecasters as well as disaster managers has shifted to also take into account the different meteorological parameters like maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed, duration/spell of heat waves and its intensity which are aggravating the impact of heat stress. In this background, this study is undertaken as an attempt to quantify the effect of different meteorological parameters on heat wave on different regions of India for different summer months (March, April, May and June). In this study the impact of individual meteorological parameter as well their cumulative effect is studied based on data of 30 years (1981-2010) for 300 stations. The effect of different meteorological parameters is identified for different months for different regions of the country. Also the cumulative scores are calculated for different regions considering different meteorological parameters, as a first initiative to perform heat hazard analysis and zonation over the entire country. This could serve as initial step for planning mitigation and adaptation strategies throughout the country. These scores as thresholds for different regions may be also useful for operational forecaster's for early impact based warning services as well as for the disaster managers, for taking effective and timely actions.
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Ferrari GN, Leal GCL, Thom de Souza RC, Galdamez EVC. Impact of climate change on occupational health and safety: A review of methodological approaches. Work 2022; 74:485-499. [PMID: 36314181 DOI: 10.3233/wor-211303] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The working population is exposed daily to unavoidable climatic conditions due to their occupational settings. Effects of the weather such as rain, heat, and air pollution may increase the risk of diseases, injuries, accidents, and even death during labor. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to summarize the impacts of climate change on workers' health, safety and performance, identifying the risks, affected workplaces and the range of methodological approaches used to assess this problem. METHODS A thorough systematic mapping was conducted in seven scientific international databases: Emerald, IEEE Xplore, Science Direct, Scielo, Scopus, SpringerLink, and Web of Science. Three research questions guided the extraction process resulting in 170 articles regarding the impacts of climate change on occupational health and safety. RESULTS We found an accentuated trend in observational studies applying primary and secondary data collection. Many studies focused on the association between rising temperatures and occupational hazards, mainly in outdoor work settings such as agriculture. The variation of temperature was the most investigated impact of climate change. CONCLUSIONS We established a knowledge base on how to explore the impacts of climate change on workers' well-being and health. Researchers and policymakers benefit from this review, which explores the suitable methods found in the literature and highlights the most recurring risks and their consequences to occupational health and safety.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guilherme Neto Ferrari
- Postgraduate Program in Production Engineering, Production Engineering Department, State University of Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
| | - Gislaine Camila Lapasini Leal
- Postgraduate Program in Production Engineering, Production Engineering Department, State University of Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
| | | | - Edwin Vladimir Cardoza Galdamez
- Postgraduate Program in Production Engineering, Production Engineering Department, State University of Maringá, Maringá, PR, Brazil
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Effect of the Near-Future Climate Change under RCP8.5 on the Heat Stress and Associated Work Performance in Thailand. ATMOSPHERE 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/atmos13020325] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Increased heat stress affects well-being, comfort, and economic activities across the world. It also causes a significant decrease in work performance, as well as heat-related mortality. This study aims to investigate the impacts of the projected climate change scenario under RCP8.5 on heat stress and associated work performance in Thailand during the years 2020–2029. The model evaluation shows exceptional performance in the present-day simulation (1990–1999) of temperature and relative humidity, with R2 values ranging from 0.79 to 0.87; however, the modeled temperature and relative humidity are all underestimated when compared to observation data by −0.9 °C and −27%, respectively. The model results show that the temperature change will tend to increase by 0.62 °C per decade in the future. This could lead to an increase in the heat index by 2.57 °C if the temperature increases by up to 1.5 °C in Thailand. The effect of climate change is predicted to increase heat stress by 0.1 °C to 4 °C and to reduce work performance in the range of 4% to >10% across Thailand during the years 2020 and 2029.
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Evaluating the Connection between Thermal Comfort and Productivity in Buildings: A Systematic Literature Review. BUILDINGS 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/buildings11060244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
The thermal environment is one of the main factors that influence thermal comfort and, consequently, the productivity of occupants inside buildings. Throughout the years, research has described the connection between thermal comfort and productivity. Mathematical models have been established in the attempt to predict changes in productivity according to thermal variations in the environment. Some of these models have failed for a number of reasons, including the understanding of the effect that several environment variables have had on performance. From this context, a systematic literature review was carried out with the aim of verifying the connection between thermal comfort and productivity and the combinations of different thermal and personal factors that can have an effect on productivity. A hundred and twenty-eight articles were found which show a connection between productivity and some thermal comfort variables. By means of specific inclusion and exclusion criteria, 60 articles were selected for a final analysis. The main conclusions found in this study were: (i) the vast majority of research uses subjective measures and/or a combination of methods to evaluate productivity; (ii) performance/productivity can be attained within an ampler temperature range; (iii) few studies present ways of calculating productivity.
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