Vulnerability of Indian wheat against rising temperature and aerosols

Potential impacts of change in climate on Indian agriculture may be significantly adverse, if not disastrous. There are projections of potential loss in wheat yield due to the rise in daily minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperature, but only few researchers have considered the extent of such loss on a spatial scale. We therefore, systematically studied the effect of change in Tmax, Tmean (daily average temperature) and Tmin, solar radiation (Srad) and precipitation (RAIN) during wheat growing seasons (from 1986 to 2015) on wheat crop yield over five wheat growing zones across India, taking into account the effect modification by aerosol loading (in terms of aerosol optical depth, 2001-2015). We note that for the entire India, 1 °C rise in Tmean resulted a 7% decrease in wheat yield which varied disproportionately across the crop growing zones by a range of -9% (peninsular zone, PZ) to 4% (northern hills zone, NHZ). The effect of Tmean on wheat yield was identical to the marginal effect of Tmax and Tmin, while 1% increase in Srad enhance wheat yield by 4% for all India with small geographical variations (2-5%), except for the northern hill region (-4%). Rise in 1 °C Tmean exclusively during grain filling duration was noted positive for all the wheat growing regions (0-2%) except over central plain zone (-3%). When estimates of weather variables on wheat yield was combined with the estimated impact of aerosols on weather, the most significant impact was noted over the NHZ (-23%), which otherwise varied from -7% to -4%. Overall, the study brings out the conclusive evidence of negative impact of rising temperature on wheat yield across India, which we found spatially inconsistent and highly uncertain when integrated with the compounding effect of aerosols loading.

An empirical method for source apportionment of black carbon aerosol: Results from Aethalometer observations at five different locations in India

Black carbon (BC) aerosol emitted in incomplete combustion processes is known for causing warming in the climate system also poses serious health issues. Identification of the sources of BC is essential for the development of mitigation strategies to regulate their effects in changing climate. Among different observational and analytical techniques currently available, source apportionment methods based on optical measurements are relatively simple. For example, 'Aethalometer model' was developed based on Aethalometer observations. However, there are a few limitations with this model arising from assumption of wavelength and angstrom exponent pairs. We have developed an empirical method which also relies on Aethalometer observations named as 'Two alpha method' which assumes angstrom exponent from fossil fuel as 1 and estimates bio-mass fraction and angstrom exponent for bio-mass burning. This method has been applied to Aethalometer observations from five different locations (rural, semi-urban and urban) over Indian sub-continent to quantify sources of BC. Fossil fuel is found to be the major source of BC (∼70%) irrespective of the location. Collocated measurements of Carbon Monoxide (CO) over rural site correlated well with derived bio-mass fraction. Results from this study demonstrated the capabilities of empirical method and shall provide spatio-temporal variability in sources of BC if applied to more locations.

A new perspective in understanding rainfall from satellites over a complex topographic region of India

Present study focuses on rainfall over Western Ghats (WG), a complex topographic region (elevation > 500 m) of India to evaluate and to better understand the satellite behavior in contrast with a flat region (FR) (elevation < 500 m) of central India from 1998 to 2016 using the combinatory data sets of TMPA and IMERG (satellite rainfall estimation). The categorical Intra Seasonal Oscillations (ISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) namely, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Quasi Bi-Weekly Oscillation (QBWO) are tested in satellite and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded rainfall data sets to find out the satellite performance. As the accurate estimation of rainfall from satellites over higher elevation zones is challenging, here we propose a new perspective to select the rainfall products of satellite for better comparison with ground measurements. Considering the satellite’s best capability in detecting the cold clouds resulting from deep convection and its coupling with higher-level circulation, we show that the rainfall from satellites yield fruitful comparison with ground measurements when moist static stability, tropical easterly jet is above the climatological values.