Multi-mission satellite remote sensing data for improving land hydrological models via data assimilation

Improving global gross primary productivity estimation using two-leaf light use efficiency model by considering various environmental factors via machine learning

Distinguishing gross primary productivity (GPP) into sunlit (GPPsu) and shaded (GPPsh) components is critical for understanding the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. Recently, the two-leaf light use efficiency (TL-LUE) model has proven effective for simulating global GPPsu and GPPsh. However, no known physical method has focused on integrating the overall constraint of intricate environmental factors on photosynthetic capability, and seasonal differences in the foliage clumping index (CI), which most likely influences GPP estimation in LUE models. Here, we propose the TL-CRF model, which uses the random forest technique to integrate various environmental variables, particularly for terrestrial water storage (TWS), into the TL-LUE model. Moreover, we consider seasonal differences in CI at a global scale. Based on 267 global eddy covariance flux sites, we explored the functional response of vegetation photosynthesis to key environmental factors, and trained and evaluated the TL-CRF model. The TL-CRF model was then used to simulate global eight-day GPP, GPPsu, and GPPsh from 2002 to 2020. The results show that the relative prediction error of environmental stress factors on the maximum LUE is reduced by approximately 52 % when these factors are integrated via the RF model. Thus the accuracy of global GPP estimation (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 0.94 g C m-2 d-1, MAE = 0.61 g C m-2 d-1) in the TL-CRF model is greater than that (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 2.18 g C m-2 d-1, MAE = 1.50 g C m-2 d-1) in the TL-LUE model, although this accuracy awaits further investigation among the released GPP products. TWS exerts the greatest control over ecosystem photosynthesis intensity, making it a suitable water indicator. Furthermore, the results confirm an optimal minimum air temperature for photosynthesis. Overall, these findings indicate a promising method for producing a new global GPP dataset, advancing our understanding of the dynamics and interactions between photosynthesis and environmental factors.

How does precipitation data influence the land surface data assimilation for drought monitoring?

Droughts are among the costliest natural hazards that occur annually worldwide. Their socioeconomic impacts are significant and widespread, affecting the sustainable development of human societies. This study investigates the influence of different forcing precipitation data in driving Land Surface Models (LSMs) and characterizing drought conditions. Here, we utilize our recently developed LSM data assimilation system for probabilistically monitoring drought over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The Noah-MP LSM model is forced with two widely used precipitation data including IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM) and NLDAS (North American Land Data Assimilation System). Soil moisture and evapotranspiration are known to have a strong relationship in the land-atmospheric interaction processes. Unlike other studies that attempted the individual assimilation of these variables, here we propose a multivariate data assimilation framework. Therefore, in both modeling scenarios, the data assimilation approach is used to integrate remotely sensed MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) evapotranspiration and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) soil moisture observations into the Noah-MP LSM. The results of this study indicate that the source of precipitation data has a significant impact on the performance of LSM data assimilation system for drought monitoring. The findings revealed that NLDAS and IMERG precipitation can result in a significant difference in identifying drought severity depending on the region and time of the year. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that regardless of the precipitation forcing data product used in the land surface data assimilation system, our modeling framework can effectively detect the drought impacts on crop yield. Additionally, we calculated the drought probability based on the ensemble of soil moisture percentiles and found that there exist temporal and spatial discrepancies in drought probability maps generated from the NLDAS and IMERG precipitation forcings.

Flood Forecasting via the Ensemble Kalman Filter Method Using Merged Satellite and Measured Soil Moisture Data

Flood monitoring in the Chaohe River Basin is crucial for the timely and accurate forecasting of flood flow. Hydrological models used for the simulation of hydrological processes are affected by soil moisture (SM) data and uncertain model parameters. Hence, in this study, measured satellite-based SM data obtained from different spatial scales were merged, and the model state and parameters were updated in real time via the data assimilation method named ensemble Kalman filter. Four different assimilation settings were used for the forecasting of different floods at three hydrological stations in the Chaohe River Basin: flood forecasting without data assimilation (NA case), assimilation of runoff data (AF case), assimilation of runoff and satellite-based soil moisture data (AFWR case), and assimilation of runoff and merged soil moisture data (AFWM case). Compared with NA, the relative error (RE) of small, medium, and large floods decreased from 0.53 to 0.23, 0.35 to 0.16, and 0.34 to 0.12 in the AF case, respectively, indicating that the runoff prediction was significantly improved by the assimilation of runoff data. In the AFWR and AFWM cases, the REs of the small, medium, and large floods also decreased, indicating that the soil moisture data play important roles in the assimilation of medium and small floods. To study the factors affecting the assimilation, the changes in the parameter mean and variance and the number of set samples were analyzed. Our results have important implications for the prediction of different levels of floods and related assimilation processes.

Synthetic aircraft RS image modelling based on improved conditional GAN joint embedding network

Developing an efficient and quality remote sensing (RS) technology using volume and efficient modelling in different aircraft RS images is challenging. Generative models serve as a natural and convenient simulation method. Because aircraft types belong to the fine class under the rough class, the issue of feature entanglement may occur while modelling multiple aircraft classes. Our solution to this issue was a novel first-generation realistic aircraft type simulation system (ATSS-1) based on the RS images. It realised fine modelling of the seven aircraft types based on a real scene by establishing an adaptive weighted conditional attention generative adversarial network and joint geospatial embedding (GE) network. An adaptive weighted conditional batch normalisation attention block solved the subclass entanglement by reassigning the intra-class-wise characteristic responses. Subsequently, an asymmetric residual self-attention module was developed by establishing a remote region asymmetric relationship for mining the finer potential spatial representation. The mapping relationship between the input RS scene and the potential space of the generated samples was explored through the GE network construction that used the selected prior distribution z, as an intermediate representation. A public RS dataset (OPT-Aircraft_V1.0) and two public datasets (MNIST and Fashion-MNIST) were used for simulation model testing. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of ATSS-1, promoting further development of realistic automatic RS simulation.

An application of the ensemble Kalman filter in epidemiological modelling

Since the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in China, and due to the open accessibility of COVID-19 data, several researchers and modellers revisited the classical epidemiological models to evaluate their practical applicability. While mathematical compartmental models can predict various contagious viruses' dynamics, their efficiency depends on the model parameters. Recently, several parameter estimation methods have been proposed for different models. In this study, we evaluated the Ensemble Kalman filter's performance (EnKF) in the estimation of time-varying model parameters with synthetic data and the real COVID-19 data of Hubei province, China. Contrary to the previous works, in the current study, the effect of damping factors on an augmented EnKF is studied. An augmented EnKF algorithm is provided, and we present how the filter performs in estimating models using uncertain observational (reported) data. Results obtained confirm that the augumented-EnKF approach can provide reliable model parameter estimates. Additionally, there was a good fit of profiles between model simulation and the reported COVID-19 data confirming the possibility of using the augmented-EnKF approach for reliable model parameter estimation.

The 2019-2020 Rise in Lake Victoria Monitored from Space: Exploiting the State-of-the-Art GRACE-FO and the Newly Released ERA-5 Reanalysis Products

During the period 2019-2020, Lake Victoria water levels rose at an alarming rate that has caused various problems in the region. The influence of this phenomena on surface and subsurface water resources has not yet been investigated, largely due to lack of enough in situ measurements compounded by the spatial coverage of the lake's basin, incomplete/inconsistent hydrometeorological data, and unavailable governmental data. Within the framework of joint data assimilation into a land surface model from multi-mission satellite remote sensing, this study employs the state-of-art Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS), newly released ERA-5 reanalysis, and satellite radar altimetry products to understand the cause of the rise of Lake Victoria on the one hand, and the associated impacts of the rise on the total water storage compartments (surface and groundwater) triggered by the extreme climatic event on the other hand. In addition, the study investigates the impacts of large-scale ocean-atmosphere indices on the water storage changes. The results indicate a considerable increase in water storage over the past two years, with multiple subsequent positive trends mainly induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Significant storage increase is also quantified in various water components such as surface water and water discharge, where the results show the lake's water level rose by ∼1.4 m, leading to approximately 1750 gigatonne volume increase. Multiple positive trends are observed in the past two years in the lake's water storage increase with two major events in April-May 2019 and December 2019-January 2020, with the rainfall occurring during the short rainy season of September to November (SON) having had a dominant effect on the lake's rise.

Data Assimilation of Satellite-Based Soil Moisture into a Distributed Hydrological Model for Streamflow Predictions

The authors examine the impact of assimilating satellite-based soil moisture estimates on real-time streamflow predictions made by the distributed hydrologic model HLM. They use SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and SMOS (Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity) data in an agricultural region of the state of Iowa in the central U.S. They explore three different strategies for updating model soil moisture states using satellite-based soil moisture observations. The first is a “hard update” method equivalent to replacing the model soil moisture with satellite observed soil moisture. The second is Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to update the model soil moisture, accounting for modeling and observational errors. The third strategy introduces a time-dependent error variance model of satellite-based soil moisture observations for perturbation of EnKF. The study compares streamflow predictions with 131 USGS gauge observations for four years (2015–2018). The results indicate that assimilating satellite-based soil moisture using EnKF reduces predicted peak error compared to that from the open-loop and hard update data assimilation. Furthermore, the inclusion of the time-dependent error variance model in EnKF improves overall streamflow prediction performance. Implications of the study are useful for the application of satellite soil moisture for operational real-time streamflow forecasting.