Evaluation of the TRMM product for monitoring drought over Paraíba State, northeastern Brazil: a trend analysis

Multi-datasets to monitor and assess meteorological and hydrological droughts in a typical basin of the Brazilian semiarid region

This study analyzed the meteorological and hydrological droughts in a typical basin of the Brazilian semiarid region from 1994 to 2016. In recent decades, this region has faced prolonged and severe droughts, leading to marked reductions in agricultural productivity and significant challenges to food security and water availability. The datasets employed included a digital elevation model, land use and cover data, soil characteristics, climatic data (temperature, wind speed, solar radiation, humidity, and precipitation), runoff data, images from the MODIS/TERRA and AQUA sensors (MOD09A1 and MODY09A1 products), and soil water content. A variety of methods and products were used to study these droughts: the meteorological drought was analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) derived from observed precipitation data, while the hydrological drought was assessed using the Standardized Soil Index (SSI), the Nonparametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (NMSDI), and the Parametric Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (PMSDI). These indices were determined using water balance components, including streamflow and soil water content, from the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and evapotranspiration data from the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). The findings indicate that the methodology effectively identified variations in water dynamics and drought periods in a headwater basin within Brazil's semiarid region, suggesting potential applicability in other semiarid areas. This study provides essential insights for water resource management and resilience building in the face of adverse climatic events, offering a valuable guide for decision-making processes.

A cloud-integrated GIS for forest cover loss and land use change monitoring using statistical methods and geospatial technology over northern Algeria

Over the last two decades, forest cover has experienced significant impacts from fires and deforestation worldwide due to direct human activities and climate change. This paper assesses trends in forest cover loss and land use and land cover changes in northern Algeria between 2000 and 2020 using datasets extracted from Google Earth Engine (GEE), such as the Hanssen Global Forest Change and MODIS Land Cover Type products (MCD12Q1). Classification was performed using the pixel-based supervised machine-learning algorithm called Random Forest (RF). Trends were analyzed using methods such as Mann-Kendall and Sen. The study area comprises 17 basins with high rainfall variability. The results indicated that the forest area decreased by 64.96%, from 3718 to 1266 km², during the 2000-2020 period, while the barren area increased by 40%, from 134,777 to 188,748 km². The findings revealed that the Constantinois-Seybousse-Mellegue hydrographic basin was the most affected by deforestation and cover loss, exceeding 50% (with an area of 1018 km²), while the Seybouse River basin experienced the highest percentage of cover loss at 40%. Nonparametric tests showed that seven river basins (41%) had significantly increasing trends of forest cover loss. According to the obtained results, the forest loss situation in Algeria, especially in the northeastern part, is very alarming and requires an exceptional and urgent plan to protect forests and the ecological system against wildfires and climate change. The study provides a diagnosis that should encourage better protection and management of forest cover in Algeria.

Deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon from 2001 to 2020: Impacts on rainfall variability and land surface temperature

Deforestation and fires in the Amazon are serious problems affecting climate, and land use and land cover (LULC) changes. In recent decades, the Amazon biome area has suffered constant fires and deforestation, causing severe environmental problems that considerably impact the land surface temperature (LST) and hydrological cycle. The Amazon biome lost a large forest area during this period. Thus, this study aims to analyze the deforestation and burned areas in the Amazon from 2001 to 2020, considering their impacts on rainfall variability and LST. This study used methods and procedures based on Google Earth Engine for analysis: (a) LULC evolution mapping, (b) vegetation cover change analysis using vegetation indices, (c) mapping of fires, (d) rainfall and LST analyses, and (e) analysis of climate influence and land cover on hydrological processes using the geographically weighted regression method. The results showed significant LULC changes and the main locations where fires occurred from 2001 to 2020. The years 2007 and 2010 had the most significant areas of fires in the Brazilian Amazon (233,401 km² and 247,562 km², respectively). The Pará and Mato Grosso states had the region's largest deforested areas (172,314 km² and 144,128 km², respectively). Deforestation accumulated in the 2016-2020 period is the greatest in the period analyzed (254,465 km²), 92% higher than in the 2005-2010 period and 82% higher than in the 2001-2005 period. The study also showed that deforested areas have been increasing in recent decades, and the precipitation decreased, while an increase is observed in the LST. It was also concluded that indigenous protection areas have suffered from anthropic actions.

Evaluation and Application of MSWEP in Drought Monitoring in Central Asia

Thanks to the large scope, high spatial resolution, and increasing data records, satellite-based precipitation products are playing an increasingly important role in drought monitoring. First, based on the data from ground sites, the long-term Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) precipitation product was evaluated in respect to drought monitoring. Then, based on the MSWEP product, the drought trends and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the drought events in four major basins (Amu Darya Basin, Syr Darya Basin, Chu-Talas River Basin, and Ili River Basin) in Central Asia, which have relatively dense gauge sites, were studied. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the run theory were used to identify drought events and describe their characteristics. The results showed that MSWEP can effectively capture drought events and their basic characteristics. In the past 40 years, the study area experienced 27 drought events, among which the severest one (DS = 15.66) occurred from June 2007 to September 2008. The drought event that occurred from June 1984 to October 1984 had a drought peak value of 3.39, with the largest drought area (99.2%). Since 1881, there appeared a drying trend and a wetting trend in the Amu Darya River basin and the Ili River basin, respectively. No obvious wetting or drying trend was found in both the Chu-Talas River basin and the Syr Darya basin. Since 2016, the drought area has been on the increase.

Assessment of current and future land use/cover changes in soil erosion in the Rio da Prata basin (Brazil)

In recent years, the Cerrado biome in Brazil (Brazilian savannah) has faced severe environmental problems due to abrupt changes in land use/cover (LUC), causing increased soil loss, sediment yield and water turbidity. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the impacts of soil loss and sediment delivery ratio (SDR) over the last 30 years to simulate future scenarios of soil losses from 2050 to 2100 and to investigate an episode of sediment delivery that occurred in the Rio da Prata Basin (RPB) in 2018. In this study, the following were used: an estimation of soil losses for 1986, 1999, 2007 and 2016 using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an estimation of SDR, sediment export and sediment deposition using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, an association of RUSLE factor C to LUC data for 2050 and 2100 based on the CA-Markov hybrid model, and an estimation of future soil erosion scenarios for 2050 and 2100. The results show that over the last 30 years (1986-2016), there has been a reduction in the areas of highly intense and severe degrees. Future soil erosion scenarios (2050-2100) showed a 13.84% increase in areas of soil loss >10 Mg ha^-1 year^-1. The results highlighted the importance of assessing the impacts of LUC changes on soil erosion and the export of sediments to agricultural watersheds in the RPB, one of the best ecotourism destinations in Brazil. In addition, the increase in soil loss in the region intensified sediment yield events and increased water turbidity. Furthermore, riparian vegetation, although preserved, was not able to protect the watercourse, showing that it is essential to adopt the best management practices in the agricultural production areas of the basin, especially where ramps are extensive or the slope is greater than 2%, to reduce the runoff velocity and control the movement of sediments on the surface towards the drainage canals. The results of this study are useful for drawing up a soil and water conservation plan for the sustainable production of agriculture and maintenance of ecosystem services in the region.

Assessment of Three Long-Term Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates against Ground Observations for Drought Characterization in Northwestern China

Long-term satellite-based precipitation estimates (LSPE) play a significant role in climatological studies like drought monitoring. In this study, three popular LSPEs (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR), Rainfall Estimates from Rain Gauge and Satellite Observations (CHIRPS) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP)) were evaluated on a monthly scale using ground-based stations for capturing drought event characteristics over northwestern China from 1983 to 2013. To reflect dry or wet evolution, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was adopted, and the Run theory was used to identify drought events and their characteristics. The conventional statistical indices (relative bias (RB), correlation coefficient (CC), and root mean square error (RMSE)), as well as categorical indices (probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and missing ratio (MISS)) are used to evaluate the capability of LSPEs in estimating precipitation and drought characteristics. We found that: (1) three LSPEs showed generally satisfactory performance in estimating precipitation and characterizing drought events. Although LSPEs have acceptable performance in identifying drought events with POD greater than 60%, they still have a high false alarm ratio (>27%) and a high missing ratio (>33%); (2) three LSPEs tended to overestimate drought severity, mainly because of an overestimation of drought duration; (3) the ability of CHIRPS to replicate the temporal evolution of precipitation and SPI values is limited; (4) in severe drought events, PERSIANN-CDR tends to overestimate precipitation, and drought severity, as well as drought area; (5) among the three LSPEs, MSWEP outperformed the other two in identifying drought events (POD > 66%) and characterizing drought features. Finally, we recommend MSWEP for drought monitoring studies due to its high accuracy in estimating drought characteristics over northwestern China. In drought monitoring applications, the overestimation of PERSIANN-CDR for drought peak value and area, as well as CHIRPS’s inferiority in capturing drought temporal evolution, must be considered.

Geospatial cluster analysis of the state, duration and severity of drought over Paraíba State, northeastern Brazil

Droughts threaten water resources, agriculture, socio-economic activities and the population at the global and regional level, so identifying areas with homogeneous drought behaviors is an important consideration in improving the management of water resources. The objective of this study is to identify homogenous zones over Paraíba State in relation to the state, duration and severity of droughts that have occurred over the last 20 years (1998-2017) using hierarchical cluster analysis based on both gauge-measured and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimated rainfall data (TMPA 3B42). The drought series were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) based on eight time scales and were grouped according to drought state, duration and severity time series. The integrated results of state, duration and severity of droughts indicate that there is a basis for dividing Paraíba State into two major regions (a) Zone I, formed by Mata Paraibana and Agreste Paraibano, and (b) Zone II, composed by Borborema and Sertão Paraibano. This division is evident when assessing short-term droughts, but in the case of long-term droughts, Paraíba State has a high similarity in terms of drought state, duration, and severity. Factors such as proximity to the ocean, active climatic systems, and the local relief configuration were identified as influencing the drought regime. Finally, it is concluded that TMPA rainfall estimates represent a valuable source of data to regionalize and identify drought patterns over this part of Brazil and that other studies of this type should be carried out to monitor these phenomena based on other satellite-based rainfall data, including the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Multiscale Complexity Analysis of Rainfall in Northeast Brazil

In this work, we analyze the complexity of monthly rainfall temporal series recorded from 1962 to 2012, at 133 gauge stations in the state of Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil. To this end, we employ the modified multiscale entropy method (MMSE), which is well suited for short time series, to analyze the rainfall regularity across a wide range of temporal scales, from one month to one year. We identify the temporal scales that distinguish rainfall regularity in the inland semiarid Sertão region, the transitional inland Agreste region, and the coastal, tropical humid Zona da Mata region, by comparing the results for stations across the study area and performing statistical significance tests. Our work contributes to the establishment of multiscale methods based on information theory in climatological studies.

Effects of human-induced land degradation on water and carbon fluxes in two different Brazilian dryland soil covers

The Brazilian semiarid region presents a physical water scarcity and high seasonal and interannual irregularities of precipitation, known as a region with periodic droughts. This region is mainly covered by the Caatinga biome, recognized as a Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest (SDTF). Soil water availability directly impacts the ecosystem's functioning, characterized by low fertility and sparse vegetation cover during the dry season, making it a fragile ecosystem vulnerable to climatic variations. Additionally, this region has been suffering from several issues due to human activities over the centuries, which has resulted in extensive areas being severely degraded, which aggravates the impacts from climatic variations and the susceptibility to desertification. Thus, studying the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum in this region can help better understand the seasonal and annual behavior of the water and carbon fluxes. This study investigated the dynamics of water and carbon fluxes during four years (2013-2016) by using eddy covariance (EC) measurements within two areas of Caatinga (dense Caatinga (DC) and sparse Caatinga (SC)) that suffered anthropic pressures. The two study areas showed similar behavior in relation to physical parameters (air temperature, incoming radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and relative humidity), except for soil temperature. The SC area presented a surface temperature of 3 °C higher than the DC, related to their vegetation cover differences. The SC area had higher annual evapotranspiration, representing 74% of the precipitation for the DC area and 90% for the SC area. The two areas acted as a carbon sink during the study period, with the SC area showing a lower CO₂ absorption capacity. On average, the DC area absorbs 2.5 times more carbon than the SC area, indicating that Caatinga deforestation affects evaporative fluxes, reducing atmospheric carbon fixation and influencing the ability to mitigate the effects of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

Evaluation of the Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) Product in the São Francisco Basin (Brazil)

The São Francisco River basin is one of the largest in the Brazilian territory. This basin has enormous economic, social and cultural importance for the country. Its water is used for human and animal supply, irrigation and energy production. This basin is located in an area with different climatic characteristics (humid and semiarid) and studies related to precipitation are very important in this region. In this scenario, the objective of this investigation is to present an assessment of rainfall estimated through the Integrated Multi-SatellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) product compared with rain gauges over the São Francisco river basin in Brazil. For that, a period from of 20 years and 18 surface weather stations were used to evaluate the product. Based on different evaluation techniques, the study found that the IMERG is appropriate to represent precipitation over the basin. According to the results, the performance of the IMERG product depends on the location where the rain occurs. The bias ranged from −1.67 to 0.34 mm, the RMSE ranged from 5.36 to 10.36 mm and the values of the correlation coefficients between the daily data from the IMERG and rain gauge ranged from 0.28 to 0.61. The results obtained by Student t-test, density curves and regression analysis, in general, show that the IMERG is able to satisfactorily represent rain gauge data. The exception is the eastern portion of the basin, where the product, on average, underestimates the precipitation (p-value < 0.05) and presents the worst statistical metrics.