Simulation of the impact of people mobility, vaccination rate, and virus variants on the evolution of Covid-19 outbreak in Italy

Vaccination, human mobility, and COVID-19 health outcomes: Empirical comparison before and during the outbreak of SARS-Cov-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant

The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant surge has raised concerns about the effectiveness of vaccines and the impact of imprudent reopening. Leveraging over two years of county-level COVID-19 data in the US, this study aims to investigate relationships among vaccination, human mobility, and COVID-19 health outcomes (assessed via case rate and case-fatality rate), controlling for socioeconomic, demographic, racial/ethnic, and partisan factors. A set of cross-sectional models was first fitted to empirically compare disparities in COVID-19 health outcomes before and during the Omicron surge. Then, time-varying mediation analyses were employed to delineate how the effects of vaccine and mobility on COVID-19 health outcomes vary over time. Results showed that vaccine effectiveness against case rate lost significance during the Omicron surge, while its effectiveness against case-fatality rate remained significant throughout the pandemic. We also documented salient structural inequalities in COVID-19-related outcomes, with disadvantaged populations consistently bearing a larger brunt of case and death tolls, regardless of high vaccination rates. Last, findings revealed that mobility presented a significantly positive relationship with case rates during each wave of variant outbreak. Mobility substantially mediated the direct effect from vaccination to case rate, leading to a 10.276 % (95 % CI: 6.257, 14.294) decrease in vaccine effectiveness on average. Altogether, our study implies that sole reliance on vaccination to halt COVID-19 needs to be re-examined. Well-resourced and coordinated efforts to enhance vaccine effectiveness, mitigate health disparity and selectively loosen non-pharmaceutical interventions are essential to bringing the pandemic to an end.

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on ridesourcing services differed between small towns and large cities

To curb the spread of the ongoing 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), authorities have adopted several non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) and pharmaceutical interventions, which significantly affected our daily activities and mobility patterns. However, it is still unclear how severity of NPIs, COVID-19-related variables, and vaccination rates have affected demand for ridesourcing services, and whether these effects vary across small towns and large cities. We analyzed over 220 million ride requests in the City of Chicago (population: 2.7 million), Illinois, and 52 thousand in the Town of Innisfil (population: 37 thousand), Ontario, to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the ridesourcing demand in the two locations. Overall, the pandemic resulted in fewer trips in areas with higher proportions of seniors and more trips to parks and green spaces. Ridesourcing demand was adversely affected by the stringency index and COVID-19-related variables, and positively affected by vaccination rates. However, compared to Innisfil, ridesourcing services in Chicago experienced higher reductions in demand, were more affected by the number of hospitalizations and deaths, were less impacted by vaccination rates, and had lower recovery rates.

Microbial Natural Products with Antiviral Activities, Including Anti-SARS-CoV-2: A Review

The SARS-CoV-2 virus, which caused the COVID-19 infection, was discovered two and a half years ago. It caused a global pandemic, resulting in millions of deaths and substantial damage to the worldwide economy. Currently, only a few vaccines and antiviral drugs are available to combat SARS-CoV-2. However, there has been an increase in virus-related research, including exploring new drugs and their repurposing. Since discovering penicillin, natural products, particularly those derived from microbes, have been viewed as an abundant source of lead compounds for drug discovery. These compounds treat bacterial, fungal, parasitic, and viral infections. This review incorporates evidence from the available research publications on isolated and identified natural products derived from microbes with anti-hepatitis, anti-herpes simplex, anti-HIV, anti-influenza, anti-respiratory syncytial virus, and anti-SARS-CoV-2 properties. About 131 compounds with in vitro antiviral activity and 1 compound with both in vitro and in vivo activity have been isolated from microorganisms, and the mechanism of action for some of these compounds has been described. Recent reports have shown that natural products produced by the microbes, such as aurasperone A, neochinulin A and B, and aspulvinone D, M, and R, have potent in vitro anti-SARS-CoV-2 activity, targeting the main protease (M^pro). In the near and distant future, these molecules could be used to develop antiviral drugs for treating infections and preventing the spread of disease.