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Moll D, Asmus H, Blöcker A, Böttcher U, Conradt J, Färber L, Funk N, Funk S, Gutte H, Hinrichsen HH, Kotterba P, Krumme U, Madiraca F, Meier HEM, Meyer S, Moritz T, Otto SA, Pinto G, Polte P, Riekhof MC, Sarrazin V, Scotti M, Voss R, Winkler H, Möllmann C. A climate vulnerability assessment of the fish community in the Western Baltic Sea. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16184. [PMID: 39003317 PMCID: PMC11246524 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-67029-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/26/2024] [Accepted: 07/08/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dorothee Moll
- Thuenen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | - Harald Asmus
- Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Wadden Sea Station Sylt, List, Germany
| | - Alexandra Blöcker
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Uwe Böttcher
- Thuenen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | - Jan Conradt
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Leonie Färber
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Nicole Funk
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Steffen Funk
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Helene Gutte
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Hans-Harald Hinrichsen
- Marine Ecology Research Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Paul Kotterba
- Thuenen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | - Uwe Krumme
- Thuenen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | - Frane Madiraca
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - H E Markus Meier
- Department of Physical Oceanography and Instrumentation, Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Rostock, Germany
| | - Steffi Meyer
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
- BioConsult GmbH & Co. KG, Bremen, Germany
| | - Timo Moritz
- Stiftung Deutsches Meeresmuseum - Museum für Meereskunde und Fischerei, Deutsches Meeresmuseum, Stralsund, Germany
| | - Saskia A Otto
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Guilherme Pinto
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
| | - Patrick Polte
- Thuenen Institute of Baltic Sea Fisheries, Rostock, Germany
| | | | - Victoria Sarrazin
- Leibniz Institute for Biodiversity Change Analysis (LIB), Museum of Nature - Zoology, Hamburg, Germany
| | - Marco Scotti
- Marine Ecology Research Division, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany
- Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources, National Research Council of Italy, Firenze, Italy
| | - Rudi Voss
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany
- Center for Ocean and Society (CeOS), Christian-Albrechts-University Kiel, Kiel, Germany
| | - Helmut Winkler
- Department of Zoology, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany
| | - Christian Möllmann
- Institute of Marine Ecosystem and Fishery Science, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany.
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2
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Neokye EO, Wang X, Thakur KK, Quijón PA, Nawaz RA. Climate change impacts on oyster aquaculture - Part II: Impact assessment and adaptation measures. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2024; 259:119535. [PMID: 38969315 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.119535] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2024] [Revised: 06/28/2024] [Accepted: 06/30/2024] [Indexed: 07/07/2024]
Abstract
The oyster aquaculture sector plays a major role in food security, providing a sustainable way to obtain food and livelihood for coastal and Island nations. Oysters are one of the preferred choices by aquaculturists because of their resilience to harsh climatic conditions. Nonetheless, climate change will continue to pose threats to its culture. Climate-induced hazards such as floods, storms, disease, and invasive species are some of the key factors limiting oyster production globally. A thriving aquaculture industry needs optimal conditions to maximize exploitation. Here, we continue with the review of the impacts of climate change on oyster aquaculture at the global scale, highlighting climate vulnerability assessment. We also propose a framework for modeling oyster responses to future climate scenarios. Furthermore, we explore the health implications of infected oysters on consumer's health. We also identify knowledge gaps and challenges for sustainable oyster production. Additionally, we document mitigation and adaptation measures and future research directions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emmanuel Okine Neokye
- Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St. Peter's Bay, Prince Edward Island, Canada, C0A 2A0; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada
| | - Xiuquan Wang
- Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St. Peter's Bay, Prince Edward Island, Canada, C0A 2A0; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada.
| | - Krishna K Thakur
- Department of Health Management, Centre for Veterinary Epidemiological Research (CVER), Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada
| | - Pedro A Quijón
- Coastal Ecology Laboratory, Department of Biology, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada
| | - Rana Ali Nawaz
- Canadian Centre for Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, St. Peter's Bay, Prince Edward Island, Canada, C0A 2A0; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, C1A 4P3, Canada
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3
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Fleury AG, O’Hara CC, Butt N, Restrepo J, Halpern BS, Klein CJ, Kuempel CD, Gaynor KM, Bentley LK, Richardson AJ, Dunn DC. Spatial and life history variation in a trait-based species vulnerability and impact model. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0305950. [PMID: 38905300 PMCID: PMC11192397 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305950] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/23/2024] [Accepted: 06/09/2024] [Indexed: 06/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Anthropogenic pressures threaten biodiversity, necessitating conservation actions founded on robust ecological models. However, prevailing models inadequately capture the spatiotemporal variation in environmental pressures faced by species with high mobility or complex life histories, as data are often aggregated across species' life histories or spatial distributions. We highlight the limitations of static models for dynamic species and incorporate life history variation and spatial distributions for species and stressors into a trait-based vulnerability and impact model. We use green sea turtles in the Greater Caribbean Region to demonstrate how vulnerability and anthropogenic impact for a dynamic species change across four life stages. By incorporating life stages into a trait-based vulnerability model, we observed life stage-specific vulnerabilities that were otherwise unnoticed when using an aggregated trait value set. Early life stages were more vulnerable to some stressors, such as inorganic pollution or marine heat waves, and less vulnerable to others, such as bycatch. Incorporating spatial distributions of stressors and life stages revealed impacts differ for each life stage across spatial areas, emphasizing the importance of stage-specific conservation measures. Our approach showcases the importance of incorporating dynamic processes into ecological models and will enable better and more targeted conservation actions for species with complex life histories and high mobility.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aharon G. Fleury
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Casey C. O’Hara
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California–Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California–Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Nathalie Butt
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Jaime Restrepo
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Benjamin S. Halpern
- Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California–Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
- National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California–Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America
| | - Carissa J. Klein
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Caitlin D. Kuempel
- Australian Rivers Institute, Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland, Australia
| | - Kaitlyn M. Gaynor
- Departments of Zoology and Botany, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Lily K. Bentley
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Anthony J. Richardson
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
- CSIRO Environment, Queensland Biosciences Precinct, St Lucia, Queensland, Australia
| | - Daniel C. Dunn
- Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, The School of the Environment, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, Queensland, Australia
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Sharifian S, Mortazavi MS, Mohebbi Nozar SL. Projected habitat preferences of commercial fish under different scenarios of climate change. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10177. [PMID: 38702432 PMCID: PMC11068754 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-61008-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/06/2024] Open
Abstract
The challenges of commercial species with the threats of climate change make it necessary to predict the changes in the distributional shifts and habitat preferences of the species under possible future scenarios. We aim to demonstrate how future climatic changes will affect the habitat suitability of three species of commercial fish using the predictive technique MaxEnt. The dataset used to extract geographical records included OBIS (54%), GBIF (1%), and literature (45%). The output of the model indicated accurate projections of MaxEnt (AUC above 0.9). Temperature was the main descriptor responsible for the main effects on the distribution of commercial fish. With increasing RCP from 2.5 to 8.5, the species would prefer saltier, higher temperatures and deeper waters in the future. We observed different percentages of suitable habitats between species during RCPs showing distinct sensitivity of each fish in facing climate changes. Negative effects from climate change on the distribution patterns of commercial fish were predicted to lead to varying degrees of reduction and changes of suitable habitats and movement of species towards higher latitudes. The finding emphasizes to implement adaptive management measures to preserve the stocks of these commercial fish considering that the intensification of the effects of climate change on subtropical areas and overexploited species is predicted.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sana Sharifian
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran.
| | - Mohammad Seddiq Mortazavi
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
| | - Seyedeh Laili Mohebbi Nozar
- Agricultural Research Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Persian Gulf and Oman Sea Ecological Research Center, Iranian Fisheries Sciences Research Institute, Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan, Iran
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5
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Li Y, Sun M, Yang X, Yang M, Kleisner KM, Mills KE, Tang Y, Du F, Qiu Y, Ren Y, Chen Y. Social-ecological vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries to climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2024; 121:e2313773120. [PMID: 38147648 PMCID: PMC10769861 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2313773120] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/10/2023] [Accepted: 11/18/2023] [Indexed: 12/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Climate change is a new disrupter to global fisheries systems and their governance frameworks. It poses a pressing management challenge, particularly in China, which is renowned as the world's largest fishing country and seafood producer. As climate change continues to intensify in the region and climate awareness grows within the country's national policy, the need to understand China's fisheries' resilience to the escalating climate crisis becomes paramount. In this study, we conduct an interdisciplinary analysis to assess the vulnerability and risk of China's marine capture fisheries in response to climate change. This study employs a spatially explicit, indicator-based approach with a coupled social-ecological framework, focusing on 67 species and 11 coastal regions. By integrating diverse sets of climatic, ecological, economic, societal, and governance indicators and information, we elucidate the factors that could hinder climate adaptation, including a limited understanding of fish early life stages, uncertainty in seafood production, unequal allocation and accessibility of resources, and inadequate consideration of inclusive governance and adaptive management. Our results show that species, which have managed to survive the stress of overfishing, demonstrate a remarkable ability to adapt to climate change. However, collapsing stocks such as large yellow croaker face a high risk due to the synergistic effects of inherent biological traits and external management interventions. We emphasize the imperative to build institutional, scientific, and social capacity to support fisheries adaptation. The scientific insights provided by this study can inform fisheries management decisions and promote the operationalization of climate-resilient fisheries in China and other regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunzhou Li
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
| | - Ming Sun
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
| | - Xiangyan Yang
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
| | - Molin Yang
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
| | | | | | - Yi Tang
- College of Marine Culture and Law, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai201306, China
| | - Feiyan Du
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fisheries Sciences, Guangzhou510301, China
| | - Yongsong Qiu
- South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fisheries Sciences, Guangzhou510301, China
| | - Yiping Ren
- College of Fisheries, Ocean University of China, Qingdao266003, China
| | - Yong Chen
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY11794
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6
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Li Y, Sun M, Kleisner KM, Mills KE, Chen Y. A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods, scales, and knowledge co-production. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2023; 29:3545-3561. [PMID: 37079435 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.16733] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/31/2023] [Revised: 04/10/2023] [Accepted: 04/16/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunzhou Li
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | - Ming Sun
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
| | | | | | - Yong Chen
- School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
- Institute for Advanced Computational Science, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York, USA
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Ecological sensitivity and vulnerability of fishing fleet landings to climate change across regions. Sci Rep 2022; 12:17360. [PMID: 36253444 PMCID: PMC9576743 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-21284-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/26/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
The degree of exposure of fishing communities to environmental changes can be partially determined by the vulnerability of the target species and the landings composition. Hence, identifying the species that ecologically most contribute to the vulnerability of the landings are key steps to evaluate the risk posed by climate change. We analyse the temporal variability in intrinsic sensitivity and the ecological vulnerability of the Portuguese fisheries landings, considering the species proportions derived both from the weights and revenues. To account for the diversification of species of each fleet, we explored the species dependence of the fishery in combination with the vulnerability of them. The analyses were carried out separately for three fleet typologies and three regions. Opposite to what has been observed at a global scale, the ecological sensitivity of the fisheries landings between 1989 and 2015 did not display a decline across areas or fishing fleets. Considering each fleet independently, for trawling, where average vulnerability was lower than in the other fleets, the sensitivity of the landings increased since the 2000s. On the other hand, the high vulnerability found in multi-gear fleets was compensated by diversification of the species caught, while purse-seine fleets targeted low vulnerability species but presented a high fishery dependence on few species. The results highlight the importance of combining information on ecological vulnerability and diversification of fishing resources at a regional scale while providing a measure of the ecological exposure to climate change.
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Crameri NJ, Ellison JC. Atoll inland and coastal mangrove climate change vulnerability assessment. WETLANDS ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 2022; 30:527-546. [PMID: 35571150 PMCID: PMC9091136 DOI: 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/01/2021] [Accepted: 04/09/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED Climate change threatens global mangroves, which are already among the world's most impacted ecosystems. Vulnerability components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were evaluated on mangroves of atoll settings on Jaluit Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, assessing spatial changes of mangrove cover 1945-2018/19, sea-level trends 1968-2019, and reviewing available information. Inland mangrove depressions occur on Jaluit, as well as coastal lagoon margin mangroves, and both were assessed using the same methods. Spatial analysis results showed both inland and coastal mangroves have increased in area. Inland mangroves on eight of Jaluit's islands mostly expanded after 1976 from 40 to 50 hectares, with progradation and tidal creek infill closing lagoon connections. Shoreline mangroves showed 88-100% of transects prograding 0.1-0.51 m year-1 and 0-11.5% of transects eroding 0-0.18 m year-1. Assessment of a combination of aerial/satellite images, literature and on-the-ground photos indicated that the mangroves are in healthy condition. Vulnerability assessment results showed both inland and coastal mangroves to have similar strengths and weaknesses in resilience, with intrinsic areas of vulnerability persisting during increased future sea level rise, limited sediment supply and extremely low elevations. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11273-022-09878-0.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas J. Crameri
- School of Geography, Planning and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Launceston, TAS 7250 Australia
| | - Joanna C. Ellison
- School of Geography, Planning and Spatial Sciences, University of Tasmania, Launceston, TAS 7250 Australia
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Climate vulnerability assessment of key fishery resources in the Northern Humboldt Current System. Sci Rep 2022; 12:4800. [PMID: 35314739 PMCID: PMC8938481 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-08818-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2021] [Accepted: 02/10/2022] [Indexed: 11/14/2022] Open
Abstract
The Northern Humboldt Current System sustains one of the most productive fisheries in the world. However, climate change is anticipated to negatively affect fish production in this region over the next few decades, and detailed analyses for many fishery resources are unavailable. We implemented a trait-based Climate Vulnerability Assessment based on expert elicitation to estimate the relative vulnerability of 28 fishery resources (benthic, demersal, and pelagic) to the impacts of climate change by 2055; ten exposure factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, pH, chlorophyll) and 13 sensitivity attributes (biological and population-level traits) were used. Nearly 36% of the species assessed had “high” or “very high” vulnerability. Benthic species were ranked the most vulnerable (gastropod and bivalve species). The pelagic group was the second most vulnerable; the Pacific chub mackerel and the yellowfin tuna were amongst the most vulnerable pelagic species. The demersal group had the relatively lowest vulnerability. This study allowed identification of vulnerable fishery resources, research and monitoring priorities, and identification of the key exposure factors and sensitivity attributes which are driving that vulnerability. Our findings can help fishery managers incorporate climate change into harvest level and allocation decisions, and assist stakeholders plan for and adapt to a changing future.
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Assessment of Ecological Vulnerability on Northern Sand Prevention Belt of China Based on the Ecological Pressure–Sensibility–Resilience Model. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su13116078] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
Quantitative assessment of ecological vulnerability is of great significance for ecological protection and restoration in ecologically vulnerable regions. Here, the ecological vulnerability of the northern sand prevention belt (NSPB) of China was assessed using an ecological pressure–sensibility–resilience model from 2000 to 2015. Results showed that the ecological vulnerability index (EVI) displayed low values in the eastern part and high values in the western part of the study region. The EVI ranged from 0.29 to 1.32 in 2000, with the mean value of 0.88, whereas it averaged 0.78 in 2015, ranging from 0.21 to 1.26. Decreasing EVI from 2000 to 2015 indicated that the ecological status has been improved. Moreover, the area proportion of moderately, heavily, and extremely ecological vulnerability levels occupied approximately 87% in both 2000 and 2015, indicating a high ecological vulnerability level. Furthermore, the change in area proportion of different ecological vulnerability levels were associated with the change in the spatial distribution of vegetation coverage, indicating that eco-environmental protection projects were indeed effective. These findings indicated that differential strategies in different restoration zones should be adopted, especially in the western parts of the study region, and eco-environmental protection projects should be reinforced to improve the ecological restoration.
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