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Li K, Gao L, Guo Z, Dong Y, Moallemi EA, Kou G, Chen M, Lin W, Liu Q, Obersteiner M, Pedercini M, Bryan BA. Safeguarding China's long-term sustainability against systemic disruptors. Nat Commun 2024; 15:5338. [PMID: 38914536 PMCID: PMC11196269 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-49725-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/17/2024] [Indexed: 06/26/2024] Open
Abstract
China's long-term sustainability faces socioeconomic and environmental uncertainties. We identify five key systemic risk drivers, called disruptors, which could push China into a polycrisis: pandemic disease, ageing and shrinking population, deglobalization, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Using an integrated simulation model, we quantify the effects of these disruptors on the country's long-term sustainability framed by 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Here we show that ageing and shrinking population, and climate change would be the two most influential disruptors on China's long-term sustainability. The compound effects of all disruptors could result in up to 2.1 and 7.0 points decline in the China's SDG score by 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline with no disruptors and no additional sustainability policies. However, an integrated policy portfolio involving investment in education, healthcare, energy transition, water-use efficiency, ecological conservation and restoration could promote resilience against the compound effects and significantly improve China's long-term sustainability.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ke Li
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
| | - Lei Gao
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Waite Campus, Adelaide, South Australia, 5064, Australia
| | - Zhaoxia Guo
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
| | - Yucheng Dong
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China.
| | - Enayat A Moallemi
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Black Mountain, ACT, Australia
| | - Gang Kou
- Xiangjiang Laboratory, Changsha, 410205, China
- School of Business Administration, Faculty of Business Administration, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, 610074, China
| | - Meiqian Chen
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
| | - Wenhao Lin
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
| | - Qi Liu
- Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610065, China
| | - Michael Obersteiner
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, 2361, Austria
- The Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Brett A Bryan
- Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Melbourne, Australia
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Wei B, Mao X, Liu S, Liu M, Wang Z, Kang P, Gao H, Tang W, Feng S, Pan Z. Breaking the poverty trap in an ecologically fragile region through ecological engineering: A close-up look at long-term changes in ecosystem services. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 358:120921. [PMID: 38652992 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120921] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/13/2023] [Revised: 03/15/2024] [Accepted: 04/13/2024] [Indexed: 04/25/2024]
Abstract
Ecological vulnerability and poverty are interrelated and must be addressed together. The resolution of this issue will help us to meet the challenges during the process of implementing concrete actions for realizing the 2030 UN sustainable development goals (SDGs). Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) can enhance ecosystem services (ESs) while providing policy support for improving people's livelihoods. However, processes and mechanisms of ERPs on the ecological environment and socioeconomic development in poverty-stricken and ecologically fragile areas have rarely been studied. To address these issues, we conducted a comparative analysis on the changes of land use and land cover (LULC), ecosystem services (ESs), and socioeconomic development in Bijie City, a karst rocky desertification area in southwest China, before and after the implementation of ERPs in 2000, as well as the complex relationship between these factors. ERPs have affected LULCs, ESs, socioeconomics, and poverty reduction significantly since 2000. Specifically, the total ecosystem service value (ESV) in the study area has increased by more than 3 times in the past 30 years, with the ESV of tourism services and carbon storage increasing the most, from CNY 0.001 and 337.07 billion in 1990 to CNY 11.07 and 108.97 billion in 2019, respectively. The correlation between ESs is mainly synergistic, while the tradeoff between carbon storage and water yield is in a fluctuating upward trend. LULC conversion of cropland to green, and cropland to water, wetland and shrubs has positive effects on carbon storage and water yield, respectively. During study period, GDP, urbanization increased by over 70 times, 5 times, respectively, whereas poverty population, poverty incidence, and employment rate of various sectors (i.e., agriculture, forest, animal, and fishery, or AFAF) decreased by 96.4%, 97.7%, and 18.24%, respectively. Our findings emphasized that ERPs can effectively help poor and ecologically fragile areas to get out of the poverty trap and achieve the "win-win" goals of ecological and socio-economic sustainable development. These results have profound environmental management references to China and other developing countries around the world in realizing ecological restoration, poverty reduction, and the SDGs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Baojing Wei
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Collegeof Landscape Architecture, Hunan Provincial Big Data Engineering Technology Research Center of Natural Protected Areas Landscape Resources, Institute of Urban and Rural Landscape Ecology, Yuelushan Laboratory Variety Innovation Center, CSUFT, Changsha, Hunan 410004, China
| | - Xue Mao
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Shuguang Liu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China.
| | - Maochou Liu
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Zhao Wang
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Peng Kang
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Haiqiang Gao
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Wenxi Tang
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Shuailong Feng
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
| | - Zhenzhen Pan
- National Engineering Laboratory for Applied Technology of Forestry & Ecology in South China, College of Life Science and Technology, Central South University of Forestry and Technology (CSUFT), Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China; Technology Innovation Center for Ecological Protection and Restoration in Dongting Lake Basin, Ministry of Nature Resources, Changsha, Hunan, 410004, China
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Sustainability Accounting Studies: A Metasynthesis. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14159533] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
This review article seeks to discuss the sustainability accounting concept by examining previously conducted studies on this topic in order to understand its thematic progress in the academic literature. This study is a metasynthesis, where, in the identification phase, 334 documents published in the Web of Science (WoS) database are selected, and in the literature review stages, 15 re-reviews are selected according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. The results reveal that businesses, academia, and regulatory bodies do not recognize a homogeneous terminology when it comes to sustainability accounting. There is a variety of synonyms that complicate the disclosure of activities carried out by companies in the pursuit of the sustainability development goals (SDGs), with SDGs 5, 6, 13, 14, and 15 being analyzed in the academic literature in relation to the sustainability accounting concept. For future research directions, the review articles analyzed suggest examining the concrete effects produced by practices related to sustainability performance in companies, linking the relevance of understanding the sustainability reports related to the sustainability performance of companies.
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Assessing the Spatiotemporal Development of Ecological Civilization for China’s Sustainable Development. SUSTAINABILITY 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/su14148776] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
The ecological civilization strategy in China has accelerated its national sustainability. However, few systematic evaluations of Chinese Ecological Civilization Construction (ECC) have provided detailed and timely information regarding estimations of the sustainable development levels. Here, we combined indicators and policies of the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals (SDGs) with Chinese ecological civilization and built an integrated assessment system with mixed indicators for evaluating the sustainable development levels in five dimensions (i.e., economy, society, ecology, culture, and institutions). Based on the acquired sustainability index from the system, we revealed the spatiotemporal transitions at the national and provincial levels from 2005 to 2019 in China. Specifically, both the national and provincial ECC temporally increased in this period, while spatially, the development performance of ECC was differentiated across provinces and regions. In particular, sustainable trajectories in east China and coastal regions presented better than the west and inland. Moreover, we identified the different dimensional contributions between the top and bottom provinces in ECC development. The results showed that the institutional, social, and cultural dimensions created more effects than the economic and ecological dimensions. By analyzing the provincial development patterns, we recommend the comprehensive development of ECC across the five dimensions and suggest that addressing weak dimensions is a priority. The proposed system will elevate the sustainable development strategies and pave the way for the broadening of the framework’s application to other regions and countries in the future.
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Assessing regional performance for the Sustainable Development Goals in Italy. Sci Rep 2021; 11:24117. [PMID: 34916565 PMCID: PMC8677844 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-03635-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2021] [Accepted: 11/29/2021] [Indexed: 11/09/2022] Open
Abstract
The monitoring report on progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a global context involves a large number of actors as it represents probably the biggest change that our society is implementing. Actions at all levels, from local, regional and national to the aggregation of multiple countries (e.g. EU 27) are needed to achieve a sustainable future. This work focuses on a national perspective (Italy) where multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is used to measure current performance. A sustainability score for each region is calculated from a set of 175 indicators contained in all 17 SDGs. Additionally, sustainability scores are disaggregated along the three pillars – social (1–5, 10, 16, and 17), environmental (6, 13–15) and economic (7–9, 11, and 12). The results highlight the positive performance of northern regions and, in particular, of Trentino Alto Adige, which ranks first in the two considered scenarios. In addition, the relevance of territorial specificities emerges for which the analysis of individual SDGs shows different leading regions. It is noteworthy to highlight the performance of the environmental sub-group of SDGs in southern regions, in contrast to the social and economic sub-groups. Evidently, policy actions are needed to reduce the long-lasting North/South divide—yet the highlighted heterogeneous sustainability performance along the three dimensions calls for well targeted policy measures necessary to regain competitiveness at a European and global level, without compromising with environmental sustainability.
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