Power determination in vitamin D randomised control trials and characterising factors affecting it through a novel simulation-based tool

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D and survival outcomes of colorectal cancer: evidence from population-based prospective cohorts and Mendelian randomisation

BACKGROUND

To investigate the association between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) and colorectal cancer (CRC) survival outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted analyses among the Study of Colorectal Cancer in Scotland (SOCCS) and the UK Biobank (UKBB). Both cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) outcomes were examined. The 25-OHD levels were categorised into three groups, and multi-variable Cox-proportional hazard models were applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). We performed individual-level Mendelian randomisation (MR) through the generated polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 25-OHD and summary-level MR using the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method.

RESULTS

We observed significantly poorer CSS (HR = 0.65,95%CI = 0.55-0.76,P = 1.03 × 10-7) and OS (HR = 0.66,95%CI = 0.58-0.75,P = 8.15 × 10-11) in patients with the lowest compared to those with the highest 25-OHD after adjusting for covariates. These associations remained across patients with varied tumour sites and stages. However, we found no significant association between 25-OHD PRS and either CSS (HR = 0.98,95%CI = 0.80-1.19,P = 0.83) or OS (HR = 1.07,95%CI = 0.91-1.25,P = 0.42). Furthermore, we found no evidence for causal effects by conducting summary-level MR analysis for either CSS (IVW:HR = 1.04,95%CI = 0.85-1.28,P = 0.70) or OS (IVW:HR = 1.10,95%CI = 0.93-1.31,P = 0.25).

CONCLUSION

This study supports the observed association between lower circulating 25-OHD and poorer survival outcomes for CRC patients. Whilst the genotype-specific association between better outcomes and higher 25-OHD is intriguing, we found no support for causality using MR approaches.

Efficacy of vitamin D3 supplementation on cancer mortality: systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

To evaluate the effect of vitamin D₃ supplementation on cancer mortality in the general population and on prognosis in cancer patients, a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised, placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) and individual patient data (IPD) was conducted. Overall, 14 RCTs with a total of 104,727 participants (2,015 cancer deaths) were identified and 7 RCTs, including 90% of all study participants (n=94,068), could be included in the IPD meta-analyses. The main meta-analysis of the 14 RCTs yielded a statistically non-significant reduction in cancer mortality by 6% (risk ratio (RR) [95%-confidence interval (95%CI)]: 0.94 [0.86-1.02]). Subgroup analyses revealed a 12% lower cancer mortality in the vitamin D₃ group compared with the placebo group in 10 trials with a daily dosing regimen (RR [95%CI]: 0.88 [0.78-0.98]), whereas no mortality reduction was seen in 4 trials using a bolus regimen (RR [95%CI]: 1.07 [0.91-1.24]; p-value for interaction: 0.042). The IPD meta-analysis (RR [95%CI]: 0.93 [0.84; 1.02]) confirmed the finding of all trials. The IPD were used to test effect modification by age, sex, body mass index, ethnicity, baseline serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration, adherence and cancer-related factors but no statistically significant findings were obtained in meta-analyses of all trials. When restricted to trials with daily dosing in a post-hoc analysis, adults aged ≥70 years (RR [95%CI]: 0.83 [0.77; 0.98]) and subjects with vitamin D₃ therapy initiation before cancer diagnosis (RR [95%CI]: 0.87 [0.69; 0.99]) appeared to benefit most from daily vitamin D₃ supplementation. Measurements of baseline 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and inclusion of other than non-Hispanic White adults were too sparse in the trials to draw conclusions. Results for all-cause and cancer-specific survival of participants with cancer were comparable to those obtained in the general population for cancer mortality. In conclusion, vitamin D₃ did not reduce cancer mortality in the main meta-analysis of all RCTs because the observed risk reduction by 6% was not statistically significant. However, a subgroup analysis revealed that vitamin D₃ administered daily, in contrast to bolus supplementation, reduced cancer mortality by 12%.

Comprehensive Analysis of Seasonal and Geographical Variation in UVB Radiation Relevant for Vitamin D Production in Europe

Dermal synthesis, following sun exposure, is the main source of vitamin D. This study characterizes ambient UVB radiation relevant for vitamin D production in Europe. A biological weighing function was applied to data from the Tropospheric Emissions Monitoring Internet Service (TEMIS) for 46 capital cities over an 18-year period (2004-2021) to isolate wavelengths relevant for vitamin D production (D-UVB). Cumulative and weighted D-UVB (CW-D-UVB) were calculated to approximate seasonal vitamin D accumulation and diminution. Monthly 25(OH)D concentration measurements were extracted from published reports. All data were analyzed by location and time. Despite a moderate latitudinal range (35-64° N), we observed large-up to five-fold-regional differences: the highest mean diurnal D-UVB dose of 5.57 kJ/m² (SD = 3.55 kJ/m²) was observed in Nicosia (Cyprus) and the lowest in Reykjavik (Iceland, 1.16 ± 1.29 kJ/m²). Seasonal differences in diurnal D-UVB dose were even more pronounced, with a median 36-fold difference between annual peak and trough depending on a location (range: 10- to 525-fold). The mean duration of "vitamin D winter" was 126 days but varied widely (4 to 215 days). Monthly CW-D-UVB and 25(OH)D changes were very strongly correlated: the changes in 25(OH)D concentration increased by 12.6 nmol/L for every 100 kJ/m² increment of CW-D-UVB in population-based studies (r² = 0.79, p-value = 1.16 × 10^-37). Understanding the differences in D-UVB radiation can help understand determinants of vitamin D status and guide region- and season-specific safe and effective sunlight exposure recommendations and vitamin D supplementation guidelines.

Association of changes in lipid levels with changes in vitamin D levels in a real-world setting

In clinical trials, vitamin D supplementation has been reported to reduce serum levels of total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and triglycerides (TG) but not high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). In this cohort study we evaluated the association between changes in vitamin D (25-hydroxyvitamin D) and changes in lipid levels in a real-world setting. Changes in lipid levels over a 1-year period were evaluated among individuals whose vitamin D levels increased (group 1) or decreased (group 2) by ≥ 10 ng/mL in year 2018 versus 2017 (cohort 1; n = 5580), in 2019 versus 2018 (cohort 2, n = 6057), or in 2020 versus 2019 (cohort 3, n = 7249). In each cohort, levels of TC, LDL-C, and TG decreased in group 1 and increased in group 2. Between-group differences in average changes in the 3 cohorts ranged from 10.71 to 12.02 mg/dL for TC, from 7.42 to 8.95 mg/dL for LDL-C, and from 21.59 to 28.09 mg/dL for TG. These differences were significant after adjusting for age, sex, race, education, body mass index, blood pressure, smoking status, geographical location, and baseline levels of vitamin D and lipids (P < 0.001). Changes in vitamin D levels were not significantly associated with changes in HDL-C levels.