Development and validation of a new diabetes index for the risk classification of present and new-onset diabetes: multicohort study

Validation of the Framingham Diabetes Risk Model Using Community-Based KoGES Data

BACKGROUND

An 8-year prediction of the Framingham Diabetes Risk Model (FDRM) was proposed, but the predictor has a gap with current clinical standards. Therefore, we evaluated the validity of the original FDRM in Korean population data, developed a modified FDRM by redefining the predictors based on current knowledge, and evaluated the internal and external validity.

METHODS

Using data from a community-based cohort in Korea (n = 5,409), we calculated the probability of diabetes through FDRM, and developed a modified FDRM based on modified definitions of hypertension (HTN) and diabetes. We also added clinical features related to diabetes to the predictive model. Model performance was evaluated and compared by area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

During the 8-year follow-up, the cumulative incidence of diabetes was 8.5%. The modified FDRM consisted of age, obesity, HTN, hypo-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated triglyceride, fasting glucose, and hemoglobin A1c. The expanded clinical model added γ-glutamyl transpeptidase to the modified FDRM. The FDRM showed an estimated AUC of 0.71, and the model's performance improved to an AUC of 0.82 after applying the redefined predictor. Adding clinical features (AUC = 0.83) to the modified FDRM further improved in discrimination, but this was not maintained in the validation data set. External validation was evaluated on population-based cohort data and both modified models performed well, with AUC above 0.82.

CONCLUSION

The performance of FDRM in the Korean population was found to be acceptable for predicting diabetes, but it was improved when corrected with redefined predictors. The validity of the modified model needs to be further evaluated.

Diabetes risk prediction model based on community follow-up data using machine learning

Diabetes is a chronic metabolic disease characterized by hyperglycemia, the follow-up management of diabetes patients is mostly in the community, but the relationship between key lifestyle indicators in community follow-up and the risk of diabetes is unclear. In order to explore the association between key life characteristic indicators of community follow-up and the risk of diabetes, 252,176 follow-up records of people with diabetes patients from 2016 to 2023 were obtained from Haizhu District, Guangzhou. According to the follow-up data, the key life characteristic indicators that affect diabetes are determined, and the optimal feature subset is obtained through feature selection technology to accurately assess the risk of diabetes. A diabetes risk assessment model based on a random forest classifier was designed, which used optimal feature parameter selection and algorithm model comparison, with an accuracy of 91.24% and an AUC corresponding to the ROC curve of 97%. In order to improve the applicability of the model in clinical and real life, a diabetes risk score card was designed and tested using the original data, the accuracy was 95.15%, and the model reliability was high. The diabetes risk prediction model based on community follow-up big data mining can be used for large-scale risk screening and early warning by community doctors based on patient follow-up data, further promoting diabetes prevention and control strategies, and can also be used for wearable devices or intelligent biosensors for individual patient self examination, in order to improve lifestyle and reduce risk factor levels.

Validation of a Salivary miRNA Signature of Endometriosis - Interim Data

BACKGROUND: The discovery of a saliva-based micro–ribonucleic acid (miRNA) signature for endometriosis in 2022 opened up new perspectives for early and noninvasive diagnosis of the disease. The 109-miRNA saliva signature is the product of miRNA biomarkers and artificial intelligence (AI) modeling. We designed a multicenter study to provide external validation of its diagnostic accuracy. We present here an interim analysis. METHODS: The first 200 patients included in the multicenter prospective ENDOmiRNA Saliva Test study (NCT05244668) were included for interim analysis. The study population comprised women from 18 to 43 years of age with a formal diagnosis of endometriosis or with suspected endometriosis. Epidemiologic, clinical, and saliva sequencing data were collected between November 2021 and March 2022. Genomewide miRNA expression profiling by small RNA sequencing using next-generation sequencing (NGS) was performed, and a random forest algorithm was used to assess the diagnostic accuracy. RESULTS: In this interim analysis of the external validation cohort, with a population prevalence of 79.5%, the 109-miRNA saliva diagnostic signature for endometriosis had a sensitivity of 96.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 93.7 to 97.3%), specificity of 95.1% (95% CI, 85.2 to 99.1%), positive predictive value of 95.1% (95% CI, 85.2 to 99.1%), negative predictive value of 86.7% (95% CI, 77.6 to 90.3%), positive likelihood ratio of 19.7 (95% CI, 6.3 to 108.8), negative likelihood ratio of 0.04 (95% CI, 0.03 to 0.07), and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.92 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: The use of NGS and AI in the sequencing and analysis of miRNA provided a saliva-based miRNA signature for endometriosis. Our interim analysis of a prospective multicenter external validation study provides support for its ongoing investigation as a diagnostic tool. (Funded by Ziwig and the Conseil Régional d’Ile de France [Grant EX024087]; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05244668.)

Prediction Model for Pre-Eclampsia Using Gestational-Age-Specific Serum Creatinine Distribution

Pre-eclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy-related disease, causing significant threats to both mothers and babies. Numerous studies have identified the association between PE and renal dysfunction. However, in clinical practice, kidney problems in pregnant women are often overlooked due to physiologic adaptations during pregnancy, including renal hyperfiltration. Recent studies have reported serum creatinine (SCr) level distribution based on gestational age (GA) and demonstrated that deviations from the expected patterns can predict adverse pregnancy outcomes, including PE. This study aimed to establish a PE prediction model using expert knowledge and by considering renal physiologic adaptation during pregnancy. This retrospective study included pregnant women who delivered at the Wonju Severance Christian Hospital. Input variables, such as age, gestational weeks, chronic diseases, and SCr levels, were used to establish the PE prediction model. By integrating SCr, GA, GA-specific SCr distribution, and quartile groups of GA-specific SCr (GAQ) were made. To provide generalized performance, a random sampling method was used. As a result, GAQ improved the predictive performance for any cases of PE and triple cases, including PE, preterm birth, and fetal growth restriction. We propose a prediction model for PE consolidating readily available clinical blood test information and pregnancy-related renal physiologic adaptations.

Classification Model for Diabetic Foot, Necrotizing Fasciitis, and Osteomyelitis

Simple Summary

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) and osteomyelitis (OM) are severe complications in patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). Although NF and OM often cause results including limb amputation and death, definite diagnoses of these are challenging. To aid the prompt and proper diagnosis of NF and OM in patients with DFU, we developed and evaluated a novel prediction model based on machine learning technology. In summary, our prediction model appropriately discriminated the NF and OM from diabetic foot. Moreover, this prediction model has advantages in that it is based on the demographic data and routine laboratory results, which requires no additional examinations which are complicated or expensive.

Abstract

Diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) and their life-threatening complications, such as necrotizing fasciitis (NF) and osteomyelitis (OM), increase the healthcare cost, morbidity and mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. While the early recognition of these complications could improve the clinical outcome of diabetic patients, it is not straightforward to achieve in the usual clinical settings. In this study, we proposed a classification model for diabetic foot, NF and OM. To select features for the classification model, multidisciplinary teams were organized and data were collected based on a literature search and automatic platform. A dataset of 1581 patients (728 diabetic foot, 76 NF, and 777 OM) was divided into training and validation datasets at a ratio of 7:3 to be analyzed. The final prediction models based on training dataset exhibited areas under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of the 0.80 and 0.73 for NF model and OM model, respectively, in validation sets. In conclusion, our classification models for NF and OM showed remarkable discriminatory power and easy applicability in patients with DFU.

Predicting the Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Chinese Elderly Using Machine Learning Techniques

Early identification of individuals at high risk of diabetes is crucial for implementing early intervention strategies. However, algorithms specific to elderly Chinese adults are lacking. The aim of this study is to build effective prediction models based on machine learning (ML) for the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Chinese elderly. A retrospective cohort study was conducted using the health screening data of adults older than 65 years in Wuhan, China from 2018 to 2020. With a strict data filtration, 127,031 records from the eligible participants were utilized. Overall, 8298 participants were diagnosed with incident T2DM during the 2-year follow-up (2019–2020). The dataset was randomly split into training set (n = 101,625) and test set (n = 25,406). We developed prediction models based on four ML algorithms: logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Using LASSO regression, 21 prediction features were selected. The Random under-sampling (RUS) was applied to address the class imbalance, and the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) was used to calculate and visualize feature importance. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy. The XGBoost model achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.7805, sensitivity = 0.6452, specificity = 0.7577, accuracy = 0.7503). Fasting plasma glucose (FPG), education, exercise, gender, and waist circumference (WC) were the top five important predictors. This study showed that XGBoost model can be applied to screen individuals at high risk of T2DM in the early phrase, which has the strong potential for intelligent prevention and control of diabetes. The key features could also be useful for developing targeted diabetes prevention interventions.

Development and validation of a machine learning-augmented algorithm for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Opportunely screening for diabetes is crucial to reduce its related morbidity, mortality, and socioeconomic burden. Machine learning (ML) has excellent capability to maximize predictive accuracy. We aim to develop ML-augmented models for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

METHODS

8425 participants were involved from a population-based study in Hubei, China since 2011. The dataset was split into a development set and a testing set. Seven different ML algorithms were compared to generate predictive models. Non-laboratory features were employed in the ML model for community settings, and laboratory test features were further introduced in the ML+lab models for primary care. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (auPR), and the average detection costs per participant of these models were compared with their counterparts based on the New China Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) currently recommended for diabetes screening.

RESULTS

The AUC and auPR of the ML model were 0·697and 0·303 in the testing set, seemingly outperforming those of NCDRS by 10·99% and 64·67%, respectively. The average detection cost of the ML model was 12·81% lower than that of NCDRS with the same sensitivity (0·72). Moreover, the average detection cost of the ML+FPG model is the lowest among the ML+lab models and less than that of the ML model and NCDRS+FPG model.

CONCLUSION

The ML model and the ML+FPG model achieved higher predictive accuracy and lower detection costs than their counterpart based on NCDRS. Thus, the ML-augmented algorithm is potential to be employed for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

Machine learning and deep learning predictive models for type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

Diabetes Mellitus is a severe, chronic disease that occurs when blood glucose levels rise above certain limits. Over the last years, machine and deep learning techniques have been used to predict diabetes and its complications. However, researchers and developers still face two main challenges when building type 2 diabetes predictive models. First, there is considerable heterogeneity in previous studies regarding techniques used, making it challenging to identify the optimal one. Second, there is a lack of transparency about the features used in the models, which reduces their interpretability. This systematic review aimed at providing answers to the above challenges. The review followed the PRISMA methodology primarily, enriched with the one proposed by Keele and Durham Universities. Ninety studies were included, and the type of model, complementary techniques, dataset, and performance parameters reported were extracted. Eighteen different types of models were compared, with tree-based algorithms showing top performances. Deep Neural Networks proved suboptimal, despite their ability to deal with big and dirty data. Balancing data and feature selection techniques proved helpful to increase the model's efficiency. Models trained on tidy datasets achieved almost perfect models.