Serological assessment of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the pandemic in Louisville Kentucky

Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates

BACKGROUND

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates.

METHODS

We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected (I 1 andI 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration.

RESULTS

Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

Usefulness of receptor binding domain protein-based serodiagnosis of COVID-19

Objectives

This study evaluated the performance of recombinant receptor binding domain (RBD) protein-based enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (RBD-ELISAs) for detecting anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin (Ig) G and IgM antibodies.

Methods

In this study, 705 sera from SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals and 315 sera from healthy individuals were analyzed.

Results

The RBD-ELISA IgG exhibited high specificity (99.1%) and moderate sensitivity (48.0%), with an overall diagnostic accuracy of 73.5%. RBD-ELISA IgM demonstrated specificity at 94.6% and sensitivity at 51.1%, with an accuracy of 72.8%. Both assays displayed improved performance when analyzing samples collected 15-21 days post-symptom onset, achieving sensitivity and accuracy exceeding 88% and 90%, respectively. Combining RBD-ELISA IgG and IgM in parallel analysis enhanced sensitivity to 98.6% and accuracy to 96.2%. Comparing these RBD-ELISAs with commercially available tests, the study found overlapping sensitivity and similar specificity values. Notably, the combined RBD-ELISA IgG and IgM showed superior performance. Cross-reactivity analysis revealed low false-positive rates (4.4% for IgG, 3.7% for IgM), primarily with viral infections.

Conclusion

This research underscores the potential of RBD-based ELISAs for COVID-19 diagnosis, especially when assessing samples collected 15-21 days post-symptom onset and utilizing a parallel testing approach. The RBD protein's immunogenicity and specificity make it a valuable tool for serodiagnosis, offering an alternative to polymerase chain reaction-based methods, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky

Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected (I_1 and I_2), recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model (SVI_2 RT) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.

Stratified Simple Random Sampling Versus Volunteer Community-Wide Sampling for Estimates of COVID-19 Prevalence

Objectives. To evaluate community-wide prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using stratified simple random sampling. Methods. We obtained data for the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Jefferson County, Kentucky, from adult random (n = 7296) and volunteer (n = 7919) sampling over 8 waves from June 2020 through August 2021. We compared results with administratively reported rates of COVID-19. Results. Randomized and volunteer samples produced equivalent prevalence estimates (P < .001), which exceeded the administratively reported rates of prevalence. Differences between them decreased as time passed, likely because of seroprevalence temporal detection limitations. Conclusions. Structured targeted sampling for seropositivity against SARS-CoV-2, randomized or voluntary, provided better estimates of prevalence than administrative estimates based on incident disease. A low response rate to stratified simple random sampling may produce quantified disease prevalence estimates similar to a volunteer sample. Public Health Implications. Randomized targeted and invited sampling approaches provided better estimates of disease prevalence than administratively reported data. Cost and time permitting, targeted sampling is a superior modality for estimating community-wide prevalence of infectious disease, especially among Black individuals and those living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(7):768-777. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307303).

Quantifying the relationship between sub-population wastewater samples and community-wide SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence

Robust epidemiological models relating wastewater to community disease prevalence are lacking. Assessments of SARS-CoV-2 infection rates have relied primarily on convenience sampling, which does not provide reliable estimates of community disease prevalence due to inherent biases. This study conducted serial stratified randomized samplings to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 3717 participants, and obtained weekly samples of community wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in Jefferson County, KY (USA) from August 2020 to February 2021. Using an expanded Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, the longitudinal estimates of the disease prevalence were obtained and compared with the wastewater concentrations using regression analysis. The model analysis revealed significant temporal differences in epidemic peaks. The results showed that in some areas, the average incidence rate, based on serological sampling, was 50 % higher than the health department rate, which was based on convenience sampling. The model-estimated average prevalence rates correlated well with the wastewater (correlation = 0.63, CI (0.31,0.83)). In the regression analysis, a one copy per ml-unit increase in weekly average wastewater concentration of SARS-CoV-2 corresponded to an average increase of 1-1.3 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection per 100,000 residents. The analysis indicates that wastewater may provide robust estimates of community spread of infection, in line with the modeled prevalence estimates obtained from stratified randomized sampling, and is therefore superior to publicly available health data.

Public Awareness of and Support for the Use of Wastewater for SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring: A Community Survey in Louisville, Kentucky

The majority of sewer systems in the United States and other countries are operated by public utilities. In the absence of any regulation, the public perception of wastewater monitoring for population health biomarkers is an important consideration for a public utility commission when allocating resources for this purpose. We conducted a survey in August 2021 as part of an ongoing COVID-19 community prevalence study in Louisville/Jefferson County, KY, US. The survey comprised seven questions about wastewater awareness and privacy concerns and was sent to approximately 35 000 households randomly distributed within the county. A total of 1220 adults were involved in the probability sample, and data from 981 respondents were used in the analysis. A total of 2444 adults additionally responded to the convenience sample, and data from 1751 respondents were used in the analysis. The samples were weighted to obtain estimates representative of all adults in the county. Public awareness of tracking the virus that causes COVID-19 in sewers was low. Opinions strongly support the public disclosure of monitoring results. Responses showed that people more strongly supported measurements in the largest areas (>50 000 households), typically representing population levels found in a large community wastewater treatment plant. Those with a history of COVID-19 infection were more likely to support highly localized monitoring. Understanding wastewater surveillance strategies and privacy concern thresholds requires an in-depth and comprehensive analysis of public opinion for continued success and effective public health monitoring.

Pre-Existing Comorbidities Diminish the Likelihood of Seropositivity after SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination

BACKGROUND

The impact of chronic health conditions (CHCs) on serostatus post-severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination is unknown.

METHODS

We assessed serostatus post-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination among fully vaccinated adult residents of Jefferson County, Kentucky, USA, from April 2021 to August 2021. Serostatus was determined by qualitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2-specific Spike IgG antibodies via enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) in peripheral blood samples.

RESULTS

Of the 5178 fully vaccinated participants, 51 were seronegative and 5127 were seropositive. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and autoimmune disease showed the highest association with negative serostatus in fully vaccinated individuals. The absence of any CHC was strongly associated with positive serostatus. The risk of negative serostatus increased as the total number of pre-existing CHCs increased. Similarly, the use of two or more CHC-related medications was associated with seronegative status.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of any CHC, especially CKD or autoimmune disease, increased the likelihood of seronegative status among individuals who were fully vaccinated to SAR-CoV-2. This risk increased with a concurrent increase in number of comorbidities, especially with multiple medications. The absence of any CHC was protective and increased the likelihood of a positive serological response. These results will help develop appropriate guidelines for booster doses and targeted vaccination programs.

CoV-RBD121-NP Vaccine Candidate Protects against Symptomatic Disease following SARS-CoV-2 Challenge in K18-hACE2 Mice and Induces Protective Responses That Prevent COVID-19-Associated Immunopathology

We developed a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate (CoV-RBD121-NP) comprised of a tobacco mosaic virus-like nanoparticle conjugated to the receptor-binding domain of the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 fused to a human IgG1 Fc domain. CoV-RBD121-NP elicits strong antibody responses in C57BL/6 mice and is stable for up to 12 months at 2-8 or 22-28 °C. Here, we showed that this vaccine induces a strong neutralizing antibody response in K18-hACE2 mice. Furthermore, we demonstrated that immunization protects mice from virus-associated mortality and symptomatic disease. Our data indicated that a sufficient pre-existing pool of neutralizing antibodies is required to restrict SARS-CoV-2 replication upon exposure and prevent induction of inflammatory mediators associated with severe disease. Finally, we identified a potential role for CXCL5 as a protective cytokine in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our results suggested that disruption of the CXCL5 and CXCL1/2 axis may be important early components of the inflammatory dysregulation that is characteristic of severe cases of COVID-19.