Short-interval fires increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest as fire self-regulation decays across forest types

Road fragment edges enhance wildfire incidence and intensity, while suppressing global burned area

Landscape fragmentation is statistically correlated with both increases and decreases in wildfire burned area (BA). These different directions-of-impact are not mechanistically understood. Here, road density, a land fragmentation proxy, is implemented in a CMIP6 coupled land-fire model, to represent fragmentation edge effects on fire-relevant environmental variables. Fragmentation caused modelled BA changes of over ±10% in 16% of [0.5°] grid-cells. On average, more fragmentation decreased net BA globally (-1.5%), as estimated empirically. However, in recently-deforested tropical areas, fragmentation drove observationally-consistent BA increases of over 20%. Globally, fragmentation-driven fire BA decreased with increasing population density, but was a hump-shaped function of it in forests. In some areas, fragmentation-driven decreases in BA occurred alongside higher-intensity fires, suggesting the decoupling of fire severity traits. This mechanistic model provides a starting point for quantifying policy-relevant fragmentation-fire impacts, whose results suggest future forest degradation may shift fragmentation from net global fire inhibitor to net fire driver.

Spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes influenced by environmental and human factors

Wildfire activity in Arctic and boreal regions is rapidly increasing, with severe consequences for climate and human health. Regional long-term variations in fire frequency and intensity characterize fire regimes. The spatial variability in Arctic-boreal fire regimes and their environmental and anthropogenic drivers, however, remain poorly understood. Here we present a fire tracking system to map the sub-daily evolution of all circumpolar Arctic-boreal fires between 2012 and 2023 using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections and the resulting dataset of the ignition time, location, size, duration, spread and intensity of individual fires. We use this dataset to classify the Arctic-boreal biomes into seven distinct 'pyroregions' with unique climatic and geographic environments. We find that these pyroregions exhibit varying responses to environmental drivers, with boreal North America, eastern Siberia and northern tundra regions showing the highest sensitivity to climate and lightning density. In addition, anthropogenic factors play an important role in influencing fire number and size, interacting with other factors. Understanding the spatial variability of fire regimes and its interconnected drivers in the Arctic-boreal domain is important for improving future predictions of fire activity and identifying areas at risk for extreme events.

Extreme wildfires in Canada and their contribution to global loss in tree cover and carbon emissions in 2023

Canadian wildfires in 2023 were record breaking with wide-reaching impacts on people, nature, and climate. Extreme heat and low rainfall associated with climate change led to unprecedented forest fires that released enormous amounts of carbon as they burned. This study used data on fire-driven tree cover loss and forest carbon fluxes to estimate the total extent of stand-replacing forest fires and their associated carbon emissions. We found that the 2023 Canadian wildfires burned nearly 7.8 million hectares of forest and accounted for more than a quarter of all tree cover loss globally. Furthermore, forests impacted by wildfires emitted nearly 3 billion tons of CO2 or about 25% more carbon than all primary tropical tree cover loss that year. These results have important implications for global carbon budgets because emissions from these wildfires will largely be excluded from official greenhouse gas reporting.