Liu XD, Hou BH, Xie ZJ, Feng N, Dong XP. Integrating gated recurrent unit in graph neural network to improve infectious disease prediction: an attempt.
Front Public Health 2024;
12:1397260. [PMID:
38832222 PMCID:
PMC11144875 DOI:
10.3389/fpubh.2024.1397260]
[Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/04/2024] [Indexed: 06/05/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective
This study focuses on enhancing the precision of epidemic time series data prediction by integrating Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) into a Graph Neural Network (GNN), forming the GRGNN. The accuracy of the GNN (Graph Neural Network) network with introduced GRU (Gated Recurrent Units) is validated by comparing it with seven commonly used prediction methods.
Method
The GRGNN methodology involves multivariate time series prediction using a GNN (Graph Neural Network) network improved by the integration of GRU (Gated Recurrent Units). Additionally, Graphical Fourier Transform (GFT) and Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) are introduced. GFT captures inter-sequence correlations in the spectral domain, while DFT transforms data from the time domain to the frequency domain, revealing temporal node correlations. Following GFT and DFT, outbreak data are predicted through one-dimensional convolution and gated linear regression in the frequency domain, graph convolution in the spectral domain, and GRU (Gated Recurrent Units) in the time domain. The inverse transformation of GFT and DFT is employed, and final predictions are obtained after passing through a fully connected layer. Evaluation is conducted on three datasets: the COVID-19 datasets of 38 African countries and 42 European countries from worldometers, and the chickenpox dataset of 20 Hungarian regions from Kaggle. Metrics include Average Root Mean Square Error (ARMSE) and Average Mean Absolute Error (AMAE).
Result
For African COVID-19 dataset and Hungarian Chickenpox dataset, GRGNN consistently outperforms other methods in ARMSE and AMAE across various prediction step lengths. Optimal results are achieved even at extended prediction steps, highlighting the model's robustness.
Conclusion
GRGNN proves effective in predicting epidemic time series data with high accuracy, demonstrating its potential in epidemic surveillance and early warning applications. However, further discussions and studies are warranted to refine its application and judgment methods, emphasizing the ongoing need for exploration and research in this domain.
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