Understanding multimorbidity trajectories in Scotland using sequence analysis

COVID-19 patient experiences in prehospital pathways: a processual approach using life-events calendar method and state sequence analysis shows detrimental delays

OBJECTIVES

To our best knowledge, no study in France has comprehensively investigated the prehospital history of patients admitted for severe cases of COVID-19. 'Patients' voice is an excellent means to capture data on primary care pathways.We aimed to identify clusters of COVID-19 hospitalised patients with similar prehospital symptom sequences, and to test whether these clusters were associated with a higher risk of poor clinical outcomes.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional online survey using life-event calendars.

SETTING

All patients hospitalised for COVID-19 between September 2020 and May 2021 in the Infectious Disease Departments in Nice and in Marseilles in France.

PARTICIPANTS

312 patients responded to the survey.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

From the day of symptom onset to the day of hospitalisation, we defined a symptom sequence as the time-ordered vector of the successive symptom grades (grade 1, grade 2, grade 3). State sequence analysis with optimal matching was used to identify clusters of patients with similar symptom sequences. Multivariate logistic regressions were performed to test whether these clusters were associated with admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and COVID-19 sequelae after hospitalisation.

RESULTS

Three clusters of symptom sequences were identified among 312 complete prehospital pathways. A specific group of patients (29%) experienced extended symptoms of severe COVID-19, persisting for an average duration of 7.5 days before hospitalisation. This group had a significantly higher probability of being admitted to ICU (adjusted OR 2.01). They were less likely to know a loved one who was a healthcare worker, and more likely to have a lower level of education. Similarly, this group of patients, who were more likely to have previously visited the emergency room without exhibiting severe symptoms at that time, may have been inclined to postpone reassessment when their health worsened.Their relatives played a decisive role in their hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

This study highlights the negative impact of delayed hospitalisation on the health outcomes of French patients with severe COVID-19 symptoms during the first wave and underscores the influence of socioeconomic factors, such as lower education levels and limited connections to the medical field, on patients' experiences.

Disease trajectories following myocardial infarction: insights from process mining of 145 million hospitalisation episodes

BACKGROUND

Knowledge of post-myocardial infarction (MI) disease risk to date is limited-yet the number of survivors of MI has increased dramatically in recent decades. We investigated temporally ordered sequences of all conditions following MI in nationwide electronic health record data through the application of process mining.

METHODS

We conducted a national retrospective cohort study of all hospitalisations (145,670,448 episodes; 34,083,204 individuals) admitted to NHS hospitals in England (1st January 2008-31st January 2017, final follow-up 27th March 2017). Through process mining, we identified trajectories of all major disease diagnoses following MI and compared their relative risk (RR) and all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) to a risk-set matched non-MI control cohort using Cox proportional hazards and flexible parametric survival models.

FINDINGS

Among a total of 375,669 MI patients (130,758 females; 34.8%) and 1,878,345 matched non-MI patients (653,790 females; 34.8%), we identified 28,799 unique disease trajectories. The accrual of multiple circulatory diagnoses was more common amongst MI patients (RR 4.32, 95% CI 3.96-4.72) and conferred an increased risk of death (HR 1.32, 1.13-1.53) compared with matched controls. Trajectories featuring neuro-psychiatric diagnoses (including anxiety and depression) following circulatory disorders were markedly more common and had increased mortality post MI (HR ranging from 1.11 to 1.73) compared with non-MI individuals.

INTERPRETATION

These results provide an opportunity for early intervention targets for survivors of MI-such as increased focus on the psychological and behavioural pathways-to mitigate ongoing adverse disease trajectories, multimorbidity, and premature mortality.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation; Alan Turing Institute.

Trajectories in chronic disease accrual and mortality across the lifespan in Wales, UK (2005-2019), by area deprivation profile: linked electronic health records cohort study on 965,905 individuals

Background

Understanding and quantifying the differences in disease development in different socioeconomic groups of people across the lifespan is important for planning healthcare and preventive services. The study aimed to measure chronic disease accrual, and examine the differences in time to individual morbidities, multimorbidity, and mortality between socioeconomic groups in Wales, UK.

Methods

Population-wide electronic linked cohort study, following Welsh residents for up to 20 years (2000-2019). Chronic disease diagnoses were obtained from general practice and hospitalisation records using the CALIBER disease phenotype register. Multi-state models were used to examine trajectories of accrual of 132 diseases and mortality, adjusted for sex, age and area-level deprivation. Restricted mean survival time was calculated to measure time spent free of chronic disease(s) or mortality between socioeconomic groups.

Findings

In total, 965,905 individuals aged 5-104 were included, from a possible 2.9 m individuals following a 5-year clearance period, with an average follow-up of 13.2 years (12.7 million person-years). Some 673,189 (69.7%) individuals developed at least one chronic disease or died within the study period. From ages 10 years upwards, the individuals living in the most deprived areas consistently experienced reduced time between health states, demonstrating accelerated transitions to first and subsequent morbidities and death compared to their demographic equivalent living in the least deprived areas. The largest difference were observed in 10 and 20 year old males developing multimorbidity (-0.45 years (99% CI: -0.45, -0.44)) and in 70 year old males dying after developing multimorbidity (-1.98 years (99% CI: -2.01, -1.95)).

Interpretation

This study adds to the existing literature on health inequalities by demonstrating that individuals living in more deprived areas consistently experience accelerated time to diagnosis of chronic disease and death across all ages, accounting for competing risks.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, Health Data Research UK, and Administrative Data Research Wales.

Contribution of Frailty to Multimorbidity Patterns and Trajectories: Longitudinal Dynamic Cohort Study of Aging People

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity and frailty are characteristics of aging that need individualized evaluation, and there is a 2-way causal relationship between them. Thus, considering frailty in analyses of multimorbidity is important for tailoring social and health care to the specific needs of older people.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess how the inclusion of frailty contributes to identifying and characterizing multimorbidity patterns in people aged 65 years or older.

METHODS

Longitudinal data were drawn from electronic health records through the SIDIAP (Sistema d'Informació pel Desenvolupament de la Investigació a l'Atenció Primària) primary care database for the population aged 65 years or older from 2010 to 2019 in Catalonia, Spain. Frailty and multimorbidity were measured annually using validated tools (eFRAGICAP, a cumulative deficit model; and Swedish National Study of Aging and Care in Kungsholmen [SNAC-K], respectively). Two sets of 11 multimorbidity patterns were obtained using fuzzy c-means. Both considered the chronic conditions of the participants. In addition, one set included age, and the other included frailty. Cox models were used to test their associations with death, nursing home admission, and home care need. Trajectories were defined as the evolution of the patterns over the follow-up period.

RESULTS

The study included 1,456,052 unique participants (mean follow-up of 7.0 years). Most patterns were similar in both sets in terms of the most prevalent conditions. However, the patterns that considered frailty were better for identifying the population whose main conditions imposed limitations on daily life, with a higher prevalence of frail individuals in patterns like chronic ulcers &peripheral vascular. This set also included a dementia-specific pattern and showed a better fit with the risk of nursing home admission and home care need. On the other hand, the risk of death had a better fit with the set of patterns that did not include frailty. The change in patterns when considering frailty also led to a change in trajectories. On average, participants were in 1.8 patterns during their follow-up, while 45.1% (656,778/1,456,052) remained in the same pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that frailty should be considered in addition to chronic diseases when studying multimorbidity patterns in older adults. Multimorbidity patterns and trajectories can help to identify patients with specific needs. The patterns that considered frailty were better for identifying the risk of certain age-related outcomes, such as nursing home admission or home care need, while those considering age were better for identifying the risk of death. Clinical and social intervention guidelines and resource planning can be tailored based on the prevalence of these patterns and trajectories.

Study protocol: pneumonia and inhaled corticosteroid treatment patterns in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - a cohort study using sequence analysis (PICCS)

INTRODUCTION

Treatment with inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) is a widely used treatment in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The main effects include a reduction in the number of exacerbations and, for some patients, an increase in expected mortality. Unfortunately, the treatment is also linked to an increased risk of pneumonia, and very little is known about which patients experience this increased risk. There is a need for identification of patient characteristics associated with increased risk of pneumonia and treatment with ICS.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a register-based cohort study that uses the nationwide Danish registers. Data from several registers in the years 2008-2018 will be merged on an individual level using the personal identification numbers that are unique to every citizen in Denmark. Clusters based on pneumonia incidence and ICS treatment patterns will be explored with a sequence analysis in a 3-year follow-up period.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This is a register-based study and research ethics approval is not required according to Danish Law and National Ethics Committee Guidelines. The results will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and reported at appropriate national and international meetings.

Treatment seeking behaviours, antibiotic use and relationships to multi-drug resistance: A study of urinary tract infection patients in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda

Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major public health threat. An important accelerating factor is treatment-seeking behaviours, including inappropriate antibiotic (AB) use. In many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) this includes taking ABs with and without prescription sourced from various providers, including health facilities and community drug sellers. However, investigations of complex treatment-seeking, AB use and drug resistance in LMICs are scarce. The Holistic Approach to Unravel Antibacterial Resistance in East Africa (HATUA) Consortium collected questionnaire and microbiological data from 6,827 adult outpatients with urinary tract infection (UTI)-like symptoms presenting at healthcare facilities in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Among 6,388 patients we analysed patterns of self-reported treatment seeking behaviours ('patient pathways') using process mining and single-channel sequence analysis. Of those with microbiologically confirmed UTI (n=1,946), we used logistic regression to assessed the relationship between treatment seeking behaviour, AB use, and likelihood of having a multi-drug resistant (MDR) UTI. The most common treatment pathways for UTI-like symptoms included attending health facilities, rather than other providers (e.g. drug sellers). Patients from the sites sampled in Tanzania and Uganda, where prevalence of MDR UTI was over 50%, were more likely to report treatment failures, and have repeated visits to clinics/other providers, than those from Kenyan sites, where MDR UTI rates were lower (33%). There was no strong or consistent relationship between individual AB use and risk of MDR UTI, after accounting for country context. The results highlight challenges East African patients face in accessing effective UTI treatment. These challenges increase where rates of MDR UTI are higher, suggesting a reinforcing circle of failed treatment attempts and sustained selection for drug resistance. Whilst individual behaviours may contribute to the risk of MDR UTI, our data show that factors related to context are stronger drivers of ABR.

Reflexiones sobre la atención primaria del siglo xxi

La atención primaria debe de afrontar los nuevos desafíos del siglo xxi que ya han comenzado con la pandemia de la covid-19. Desafíos que tienen que ver con una nueva realidad sociosanitaria caracterizada por un aumento de la prevalencia de la comorbilidad y fragilidad ligada al envejecimiento y al impacto de los determinantes de la salud; cambios en la población con pacientes más informados y que reclaman participar en las decisiones que afectan a su salud en una sociedad cada vez más digitalizada. En ese contexto la atención primaria debe de resolver nuevos retos como cambiar su funcionamiento con equipos más cohesionados que puedan incorporar nuevos perfiles que aporten valor y donde exista un compromiso con la docencia y la investigación. La gestión de todos estos desafíos requiere que los profesionales que trabajan en atención primaria en el siglo xxi profundicen en sus competencias mirando más allá de las consultas de su centro de salud. Competencias como la selección y el uso del mejor conocimiento, el pensamiento crítico, el uso de la comunicación para acercarse a los valores y las preferencias de los pacientes, la toma de decisiones compartida y la conciencia social.

Para que todos estos cambios se puedan realizar hace falta un impulso institucional con múltiples medidas insistentemente reclamadas por los profesionales. Entre las que están, en primer lugar, una mayor inversión en personal y equipamiento, así como apostar por modelos organizativos avalados por la evidencia destinados a obtener una atención más coordinada e integrada entre la atención primaria, el hospital, la salud mental, la salud pública y los servicios sociales la utilización juiciosa de las soluciones de la e-salud o la incorporación de un área de conocimiento sobre atención primaria en la universidad.